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[GI.biz] Black Ops 6 is make-or-break for the Game Pass strategy

mckmas8808

Mckmaster uses MasterCard to buy Slave drives
Its out in around 5 hours. lol.

WHAT?!?! I swear I had no idea it's coming out today. It doesn't feel like a COD day.

What some weird bullshit to spout, in that time frame gamepass has more than doubled to 34 million.

Do you know how many more it will reach in the next 4 years? 10s of millions of more subscribers isn’t moving the needle? What is? 100 million?

Matty, you know better than this bro. You know darn well GamePass subs weren't at 15 million in the year 2020.

So if a game cost 300, let's say even 400 mil to make....that includes everything...marketing and development. however it makes a billion dollars within the first two weeks. That includes on xbox, playstation and pc...including gamepass subs, both current and new. You're saying that somehow, Sony makes more profit, just because they didn't have to market it or develop it....even though they only get 20% of all sales.

20% of a billion is 200 million....which would means xbox would get 800 million. And that's not even over the full course of the game's availability. The game will sell, for at least a year. Going by Modern Warfare 2's performance, we are talking about 10 days to get that billion dollars. Even then, that's 200 mil profit for Sony, 400 mil minimum for Xbox. As the game continues to sell...that trrend just continues and the gap grows larger minus post launch development and marketing costs to maintain the game.

Why are we discussing the acquisition cost when we are talking about the profitability of one game? The acquisition covers ALL THE GAMES ABK makes. That's COD, WOW, Overwatch, Candy Crush, Diablo, etc. That does not make sense.

Does frickin Candy Crush somehow supplement the profitability of COD in this discussion? I don't think it should, so why are we doing mental gymnastics to argue in the other direction?

- Isn't it 30% for 3rd party games to be sold on PS Network? Or did COD get negotiated down to 20%?
- You aren't factoring in the 20-30% cut that Steam gets for COD being sold for PC gamers.
- You aren't factoring in the people that "DON'T" buy COD on Xbox that are already GamePass subscribers. That's lost revenue.
 

clarky

Gold Member
WHAT?!?! I swear I had no idea it's coming out today. It doesn't feel like a COD day.



Matty, you know better than this bro. You know darn well GamePass subs weren't at 15 million in the year 2020.



- Isn't it 30% for 3rd party games to be sold on PS Network? Or did COD get negotiated down to 20%?
- You aren't factoring in the 20-30% cut that Steam gets for COD being sold for PC gamers.
- You aren't factoring in the people that "DON'T" buy COD on Xbox that are already GamePass subscribers. That's lost revenue.
COD was down to 20% on PSN as per the leaks but that was with the marketing deal and such i'm not sure that is still in play now MS took over.
 
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Kvally

Member
No console or Game Pass mention on the officially released online version either.

This is what we were seeing during the game, and also was on Paramount+.



Game Pass for COD Black Ops 6 is also being promoted on the main page of callofduty.com as well as activision.com
 
1 year of gamepass ultimate was $145 CAD for me and COD is $103 after tax if I buy it on PSN..With gamepass I have COD and all the extra games for an extra $42. Don't see the downside to gamepass at all.
That's the point. What's the bottom line for MS giving it away on gamepass. If you are buying gamepass to play COD yes, if you have gamepass anyway they are losing money giving it away.

Only MS will be able to see what previous COD"s brought in for revenue compared to this years.
 

SF Kosmo

Al Jazeera Special Reporter
I'm at a weird place with MS. I really like GamePass and it makes the Xbox the most played console in my for my family. But I seldom buy games for the system. When I do it's more because of cross-buy with PC being a perk, especially if my wife and I both want to play the same game.

I think GamePass is great but it only makes sense if you're crushing the competition like Netflix choking out Blockbuster and physical media. And they're just not. GamePass isn't a strategy to take third place.
 
It only has a big impact if there was exclusivity. Even on the xbox side, many cod players will continue just buying it and won't care about gamepass. Gamepass has stagnated because xbox hardware not selling. If they were selling more consoles, there would be more growth.
 
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analog_future

Resident Crybaby
There's only one way for MS to significantly increase GamePass subscribers: by selling more Xbox hardware.

But MS is doing the exact opposite of that.

That isn't remotely true, which is why they've been focusing on Cloud, mobile, set-top boxes, Smart TVs, PC, etc.. etc..

They're trying to create as many avenues into their ecosystem as possible.
 

clarky

Gold Member
Well, they are doing it on all channels, lol.
We were talking about them pushing gamepass, its at the end but only on the xbox channels seemingly.

Edit nvm i see your post above thats weird.
 
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playbignbox

Member
That isn't remotely true, which is why they've been focusing on Cloud, mobile, set-top boxes, Smart TVs, PC, etc.. etc..

They're trying to create as many avenues into their ecosystem as possible.
When you see inferior services like NSO and PSN Plus have more subscribers than GamePass, it's not hard to conclude that a closed ecosystem like consoles is a great way to move subscriptions. I'd say if Xbox sold at the same level as PlayStation, MS would easily have over 50 million subscribers by now.
 

Kvally

Member
We were talking about them pushing gamepass, its at the end but only on the xbox channels seemingly.
Seems they are pushing Game Pass on Activision, Call of Duty, Xbox and Microsoft:

 

clarky

Gold Member
Seems they are pushing Game Pass on Activision, Call of Duty, Xbox and Microsoft:

Thats mostly xbox channels though no? If you look at the main cod channel on Youtube or see ads on TV there is no mention of GP.

Maybe its changed these last few days?
 
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playbignbox

Member
This is the truth that most people in the media don't want to acknowledge. The CMA lawsuit stuff showed us this. It's just the truth.
It wasn't long ago that MS announced its plan to have 100 million subscribers by 2030... in the chart, you can see that MS expects at least 50 million to come from dedicated hardware (Xbox hardware, since Nintendo and Sony will never allow GamePass).

Basically, this is an impossible goal to achieve without selling hardware. If Xbox hardware doesn't perform significantly in the market, MS should cut its GamePass subscriber goal in half, since that's probably how many subscribers it will have by 2030 if things continue like this.
 
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Kvally

Member
Thats mostly xbox channels though no? If you look at the main cod channel on Youtube or see ads on TV there is no mention of GP.

Maybe its changed these last few days?
I have Activision, Xbox, CallofDuty and Microsoft pages listed there, all promoting Game Pass on their main landing page. I haven't looked through all of YouTube. But they did have a commercial during the NFL game this past weekend promoting Game Pass with COD.

I just did a remote session to change my Xbox to New Zealand and I had to restart the Xbox to accept the changes and now I am disconnected lol.
 

mckmas8808

Mckmaster uses MasterCard to buy Slave drives
It wasn't long ago that MS announced its plan to have 100 million subscribers by 2030... in the chart, you can see that MS expects at least 50 million to come from dedicated hardware (Xbox hardware, since Nintendo and Sony will never allow GamePass).

Basically, this is an impossible goal to achieve without selling hardware. If Xbox hardware doesn't perform significantly in the market, MS should cut its GamePass subscriber goal in half, since that's probably how many subscribers it will have by 2030 if things continue like this.

Exactly! Thinking 10s of million of people will sub to GP through Amazon Alexa or some other streaming device like a ROKU is insane!
 

dem

Member
That isn't remotely true, which is why they've been focusing on Cloud, mobile, set-top boxes, Smart TVs, PC, etc.. etc..

They're trying to create as many avenues into their ecosystem as possible.

The cloud isn't ready for gaming. Not COD.. and especially not Xcloud.

Not even close.
 
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I'm at a weird place with MS. I really like GamePass and it makes the Xbox the most played console in my for my family. But I seldom buy games for the system. When I do it's more because of cross-buy with PC being a perk, especially if my wife and I both want to play the same game.

I think GamePass is great but it only makes sense if you're crushing the competition like Netflix choking out Blockbuster and physical media. And they're just not. GamePass isn't a strategy to take third place.
Feels to me like they’re holding onto it for a future of better streaming capabilities / more accessible hardware due to AI.

It’s like Netflix in its formative years where streaming hadn’t taken over.

Whether that comes to fruition is something else altogether.
 

SF Kosmo

Al Jazeera Special Reporter
Feels to me like they’re holding onto it for a future of better streaming capabilities / more accessible hardware due to AI.

It’s like Netflix in its formative years where streaming hadn’t taken over.

Whether that comes to fruition is something else altogether.
Yeah I guess that's true, if the cloud streaming component catches on it could be a game changer, but goddamn you would think they would have better Smart TV support by now if that was really the game plan.
 
Yeah I guess that's true, if the cloud streaming component catches on it could be a game changer, but goddamn you would think they would have better Smart TV support by now if that was really the game plan.
I just don’t think the streaming capabilities are quite there yet for streaming only.

I think it works better as a try before you download for most people.
 

NickFire

Member
So if a game cost 300, let's say even 400 mil to make....that includes everything...marketing and development. however it makes a billion dollars within the first two weeks. That includes on xbox, playstation and pc...including gamepass subs, both current and new. You're saying that somehow, Sony makes more profit, just because they didn't have to market it or develop it....even though they only get 20% of all sales.

20% of a billion is 200 million....which would means xbox would get 800 million. And that's not even over the full course of the game's availability. The game will sell, for at least a year. Going by Modern Warfare 2's performance, we are talking about 10 days to get that billion dollars. Even then, that's 200 mil profit for Sony, 400 mil minimum for Xbox. As the game continues to sell...that trrend just continues and the gap grows larger minus post launch development and marketing costs to maintain the game.

Why are we discussing the acquisition cost when we are talking about the profitability of one game? The acquisition covers ALL THE GAMES ABK makes. That's COD, WOW, Overwatch, Candy Crush, Diablo, etc. That does not make sense.

Does frickin Candy Crush somehow supplement the profitability of COD in this discussion? I don't think it should, so why are we doing mental gymnastics to argue in the other direction?
Let's just agree to disagree about whether the gamingindustry tweet has any plausible merit instead.
 
I just don’t think the streaming capabilities are quite there yet for streaming only.

I think it works better as a try before you download for most people.

I just think most people who love gaming enough to pay monthly for it have a dedicated device already. I just don't see people who aren't really into gaming seeing this on their TV and deciding to start paying monthly for gaming and then going out and getting a controller.
 
I just think most people who love gaming enough to pay monthly for it have a dedicated device already. I just don't see people who aren't really into gaming seeing this on their TV and deciding to start paying monthly for gaming and then going out and getting a controller.
At the moment yes, but if the technology improves that can change. Big if though
 

clarky

Gold Member
GoXU1do.png


Another reason im ditching my sub. Not day one is it when you have to pay extra to play "early." Shit pisses me off no end.
 
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zeroluck

Member
Paid $12 to play cod mw3/black ops 6, my experience so far with PC game pass is very positive, both on the cloud via GeforceNow(instant click and play at 120fps) and locally(the app is much better than I expected). Like I said if the next Xbox is a PC and Microsoft partner with nVidia to stream those PC games(optimized for console like experience) with some powerful hardware, it is gonna seriously disrupt gaming.
 

Kvally

Member
GoXU1do.png


Another reason im ditching my sub. Not day one is it when you have to pay extra to play "early." Shit pisses me off no end.
Both my GPU and PSP expire in late spring. Not getting those again. Core and Essential only.
 
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Humdinger

Gold Member
So they're hoping multi-millions of people sign up for several months. If I were a CoD guy, I'd just buy the game. Renting it for 3 months only saves me ten bucks and leaves me in the red if I want to continue to play the game beyond that time. But I've never been a CoD guy, so I don't know how they think.
 

Justin9mm

Member
This is the first time I'll be playing COD on my Series X, purely because I already have GP Ultimate, well into 2025. But come next year, I'm not planning to renew and planning to get rid of the Series X because it almost collects dust. The final nail in the coffin will be Xbox releasing 1st Party titles on PlayStation. COD being included on GP is not going to make me stay with Xbox in future. Xbox are still going to get my money when I buy COD on PlayStation. Xbox ultimately does not give a shit about selling consoles anymore, it's about the revenue from the games they own. There is more money in releasing 1st party titles on multiple platforms. They are going to get your money either way. They've realised that making games exclusive is suicide because they lost the system seller war on Exclusives. Last gen was the rise of console digital libraries and console gamers invested into the PlayStation ecosystem building those digital libraries which carried over to PS5. Xbox realised it's too late, focus on subscription and game revenue streams instead.
 
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Guess it depends on what you think was bad about the abk purchase.

If you invested in Xbox for their exclusive games well then abk was bad for them because it’s forced them to change course on what you want from that ecosystem.

If you invested in Xbox because you enjoy their influence in gaming and how much money they make well then life is good.
 

clarky

Gold Member
Get control of your fomo…
It’s 3 days..
lol its not fomo. You advertise something as day one then don't put it on your service until day 4 I call that a con.

Ill just cancel the service and wait for reviews and decide if its worth a purchase instead.
 
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