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[Woopah]

Alrighty! Good deal. I’ll take it.

(And you can also see how if someone with an agenda could manipulate what “close” or “narrow” means in this context).

They could, but I've read a lot of Chris' work and I don't see any particualr agenda in it.

I'm not sure what sort of agenda someone would have that would make them say this game did slightly better than Rebirth and DD2 but slighlty worse than Outlaws.

Is that a Pro-Bioware agenda or an Anti-Bioware one?

 

[nial]

I genuinely believe that this is not worth the irrational seething, but gamers I guess. If it makes anyone happy, it probably still underperformed worldwide.

 

[Raven117]

They could, but I've read a lot of Chris' work and I don't see any particualr agenda in it.

I'm not sure what sort of agenda someone would have that would make them say this game did slightly better than Rebirth and DD2 but slighlty worse than Outlaws.

Is that a Pro-Bioware agenda or an Anti-Bioware one?

There seems to be, yes.

That’s fair if you trust his opinion. For me, I’ll wait until EA releases their 10k report with the SEC to get a better sense of how it performed and how EA views such performance.

 

[TheChumpNation]

People seem to struggle with the idea that this game can be neither a complete success, nor a complete failure. It's going to end up selling between 3-6 million copies and make most of its money back, or even turn a slight profit, but not to the extent that EA or BioWare will want to do it again.

 

[Woopah]

There seems to be, yes.

That’s fair if you trust his opinion. For me, I’ll wait until EA releases their 10k report with the SEC to get a better sense of how it performed and how EA views such performance.

I'm very curious, what agenda do you think he has?

Is this an agenda for Dragon Age specifically, or for EA/Bioware more broadly?

I'm just trying to understand how you've come to the conclusion he has an agenda and what you think the agenda is.

 

[Fbh]

Has the UK ever been a relevant enough gaming market to extrapolate any large scale data from it?
I know it's one of the biggest gaming markets in Europe but that's not really saying much

People seem to struggle with the idea that this game can be neither a complete success, nor a complete failure. It's going to end up selling between 3-6 million copies and make most of its money back, or even turn a slight profit, but not to the extent that EA or BioWare will want to do it again.

Yup, the game has been very polarizing so you have 2 camps heavily invested in seeing this game be either a massive success or a massive flop.
The reality seems to be that it did ok-ish, it probably underpefromed but wasn't a masssive flop either. I imagine it's not going to end up making a whole lot of money for EA but it's not loosing them hundreds of millions either.

They'll keep Bioware around and put all their chips on Mass Effect.

 

[Cornbread78]

Non-buynary not working

Yeah because 99% of well adjusted grown adults don't give a fuck. Skip buttons are great..

 

[Woopah]

Has the UK ever been a relevant enough gaming market to extrapolate any large scale data from it?
I know it's one of the biggest gaming markets in Europe but that's not really saying much



Yup, the game has been very polarizing so you have 2 camps heavily invested in seeing this game be either a massive success or a massive flop.
The reality seems to be that it did ok-ish, it probably underpefromed but wasn't a masssive flop either. I imagine it's not going to end up making a whole lot of money for EA but it's not loosing them hundreds of millions either.

They'll keep Bioware around and put all their chips on Mass Effect.

We shouldn't try and extrapolate it to the whole world, nor is that the intention of the podcast. For Veilguard and COD it's looking purely at UK sales. The European data will come later.

 

[Madflavor]

Ooooh that doesn’t sound good, especially if it did worse than Outlaws.

I think if the game sold really well, they would’ve announced that, or we would’ve heard something by now. It’s amazing how invincible BioWare seems to be from being closed down.

 

[Dr.Morris79]

Non-buynary not working

No idea, I didn't buy it

 

[jason10mm]

Yup, the game has been very polarizing so you have 2 camps heavily invested in seeing this game be either a massive success or a massive flop.
The reality seems to be that it did ok-ish, it probably underpefromed but wasn't a masssive flop either. I imagine it's not going to end up making a whole lot of money for EA but it's not loosing them hundreds of millions either.

They'll keep Bioware around and put all their chips on Mass Effect.

See, the game here is to demonstrate to Bioware/EA that the "woke crap" and atrocious visual style hurt DAV enough that they need to excise all such stuff from ME4. We've already heard the visuals will be different, now we just need them to excise any preachy grandstanding gender nonsense from ME4. So if Bioware isn't getting much $$$ from DAV they will have to "be safe" with ME4 in a way that aligns with a decent part of the gaming population. If Bioware gets NO $$$ from DAV then they may shutter and there is no ME4. But if DAV is a big success they could think they could add more crap to ME4, but this doesn't seem to be the case and looking ahead, I'd say gender identity stuff is gonna age like spoilt milk so it's best to shelf it and just stick to good sci-fi.

 

[Denton]

People seem to struggle with the idea that this game can be neither a complete success, nor a complete failure. It's going to end up selling between 3-6 million copies and make most of its money back, or even turn a slight profit, but not to the extent that EA or BioWare will want to do it again.

Based on numbers we have I think it is extremely optimistic that the game will make profit. I doubt that will happen even on 5 year timescale.
It might sell 3 million eventually, but if two of those millions are at bargain bin prices, it will not make profit.

 

[Raven117]

I'm very curious, what agenda do you think he has?

Is this an agenda for Dragon Age specifically, or for EA/Bioware more broadly?

I'm just trying to understand how you've come to the conclusion he has an agenda and what you think the agenda is.

Its this game and Bioware. The agenda is whether the "new direction for modern audiences" has affected sales. Many of those who support "modern audiences" want the game to be a success. Other's who don't like that direction, don't.

Its basically asking the question. did Veilguard "Go woke and go broke?" or not.

 

[Woopah]

Its this game and Bioware. The agenda is whether the "new direction for modern audiences" has affected sales. Many of those who support "modern audiences" want the game to be a success. Other's who don't like that direction, don't.

Its basically asking the question. did Veilguard "Go woke and go broke?" or not.

But it's also possible to discuss video games sales without looking at things through that lens right? You could just look at the numbers of a game and say how they compare to other games.

Or do you think Chris falls into one of those camps you mentioned?

 

[Raven117]

But it's also possible to discuss video games sales without looking at things through that lens right? You could just look at the numbers of a game and say how they compare to other games.

Or do you think Chris falls into one of those camps you mentioned?

Of course it is. That said, this game, in particularly, is being viewed through those lens. Maybe he is in one of those camps, maybe he isn't. Don't know. But this game is divisive in this regard, so I don't trust anybody's opinion on it without hard numbers to back it up.

Or simply EA telling us in corporate filing whether the game met expectations.

 

[Kamina]

 

[Hohenheim]

Dragons Dogma 2 should be played by a lot more folks. I had zero issues in my playthrough after the latest Steam patch. Probaby GOTY for me.

 

[TheChumpNation]

Based on numbers we have I think it is extremely optimistic that the game will make profit. I doubt that will happen even on 5 year timescale.
It might sell 3 million eventually, but if two of those millions are at bargain bin prices, it will not make profit.

Yeah, I'm being fairly generous especially with the top end of that projection. The profit question is fairly dependent on what the budget was, which I'd assume was at very least 150m. There's a very reasonable possibility it was closer to 300m. But probably somewhere between those two numbers. Some of my thinking from a few days ago is below.

If it peaks at the 84k concurrent users it hit on Saturday, which seems likely, that puts it in the same ballpark as games like Far Cry 5, Dark Souls II, and Need for Speed Heat. I tried to pick games that I thought would have a somewhat similar PC/console split. I've pulled the idea that these three games fit that criteria entirely out of my ass.

- Far Cry 5 sold 10m+ apparently (no idea if that accounts for discounts in any way)
- In 2015, Dark Souls II had sold about 3m units, with a little more than 1m on PC
- NFS Heat apparently sold slightly lower than what EA projected, which was 3-4m total.

Veilguard's 84k is also very close to pretty much every edition of Football Manager, which seems to sell in the 1-3m range. Again, I'm gleaning this from some quick googling so take it all with a massive grain of salt.

Overall it seems like Veilguard could be headed towards sales in the 3-5m range which is probably a disappointment compared to EA's hopes/expectations, but not a complete disaster. Unless it does a Far Cry 5, which I guess must have done gangbusters on consoles or something.

I would have expected Bioware to post some kind of "Thanks for 1 million members of the Veilguard" tweet when it broke that number, but I'm now wondering if they haven't done so because they know that announcing a million copies sold ten days after launch indicates subpar sales results relative to their, or EA's, expectations. The other possibility of course is that it hasn't hit that number, but I would think it is likely to have done so by now on PC and consoles combined.

While the speculation is fun, I think all that can be definitively said at this point is that the game is not a smash hit that's going to sell like DA:I or any of the contemporaries that EA were surely aiming for.

And to be clear, I am very much rooting for this game to fail. In tone, gameplay mechanics, visual style and writing quality it's basically a combination of everything I dislike in modern games, prancing around in the skin suit of one of my favourite games of all time. I'm trying to be measured and save my victory champagne - but I'm feeling optimistic.

 

[Woopah]

Of course it is. That said, this game, in particularly, is being viewed through those lens. Maybe he is in one of those camps, maybe he isn't. Don't know. But this game is divisive in this regard, so I don't trust anybody's opinion on it without hard numbers to back it up.

Or simply EA telling us in corporate filing whether the game met expectations.

It can be viewed in that way, but I don't see anything in Chris' reporting to suggest he's doing that.

I guess the core of my argument is that I'd only say someone has an agenda if there's actual evidence of that. And I don't see any evidence since the way Chris has reported on Outlaws and Veilguard is the same way as he's reported on other games this year.

Of course, EA's global data is more representative than GSD'S European data. But that doesn't mean Chris' reporting is unreliable.

 

[Fbh]

See, the game here is to demonstrate to Bioware/EA that the "woke crap" and atrocious visual style hurt DAV enough that they need to excise all such stuff from ME4. We've already heard the visuals will be different, now we just need them to excise any preachy grandstanding gender nonsense from ME4. So if Bioware isn't getting much $$$ from DAV they will have to "be safe" with ME4 in a way that aligns with a decent part of the gaming population. If Bioware gets NO $$$ from DAV then they may shutter and there is no ME4. But if DAV is a big success they could think they could add more crap to ME4, but this doesn't seem to be the case and looking ahead, I'd say gender identity stuff is gonna age like spoilt milk so it's best to shelf it and just stick to good sci-fi.

That's what I'm hoping for.
In a way I think this game doing OK or only being a slight flop gives ME the best chance. Had this been a smash hit success they'd have no reason to not go the same route with ME and add the same level of horrible writing and ugly art direction. Had it been a massive Concord level flop I think there was a real chance they might get shut down.

Now we can at least hope there are still reasonable people higher up at Bioware/EA that will see the reaction to Veilguard and act accordingly. Maybe they'll realize that whatever brownie points they are getting by adding cringy and terribly written characters like Taash aren't worth derailing the entire conversation surrounding the game, and possibly putting the future of the studio at risk.

They have some solid people working on it. Mary DeMarle having joined the project as narrative director was a big win. Now they just need to keep the blue haired ones out, or at very least grow the balls to finally tell them "No".

 

[March Climber]

Part of the problem with people waging war over launch window sales, there are millions of people like myself who are simply glued to the “19.99 or under” section of storefronts and sales and will wait it out for a cheaper experience.

I think this game will probably reach a sales accolade but it won’t be instant like lottery-style breakout hits tend to be.

 

[simpatico]

The immediate cancelation of any DLC and instant distancing of the Mass Effect project are pretty telling. If you're EA and you just dropped your best RPG IP after 10 years in development, those aren't avenues you want to take. You'd be hyping up the fact that the team responsible for the current classic is hard at work on the next classic. But only after a generous serving of DLC.

The break-even on this thing must be gigantic considering how good the production values are. Has anybody timed the credits?

 

[Raven117]

It can be viewed in that way, but I don't see anything in Chris' reporting to suggest he's doing that.

I guess the core of my argument is that I'd only say someone has an agenda if there's actual evidence of that. And I don't see any evidence since the way Chris has reported on Outlaws and Veilguard is the same way as he's reported on other games this year.

Of course, EA's global data is more representative than GSD'S European data. But that doesn't mean Chris' reporting is unreliable.

You can take him however you want. I don't follow this close enough to have a specific opinion about him other than the general vibe that this game is treated differently. That's all.

Wont affect our lives either way.

 

[Woopah]

You can take him however you want. I don't follow this close enough to have a specific opinion about him other than the general vibe that this game is treated differently. That's all.

Wont affect our lives either way.

True. It's just a curious thing I've noticed on the internet where a fair few people says Chris has an agenda, but they all believe he has different/opposite agendas.

So when someone says Chris has an agenda, I'm always curious why they think that.

 

[gow3isben]

Part of the problem with people waging war over launch window sales, there are millions of people like myself who are simply glued to the “19.99 or under” section of storefronts and sales and will wait it out for a cheaper experience.

I think this game will probably reach a sales accolade but it won’t be instant like lottery-style breakout hits tend to be.

These games tend to be front loaded it isn’t like Astro bot or other critical darlings.


Legs will be bad

 

[Kacho]

True. It's just a curious thing I've noticed on the internet where a fair few people says Chris has an agenda, but they all believe he has different/opposite agendas.

So when someone says Chris has an agenda, I'm always curious why they think that.

I don't follow the guy closely but I have noticed that he has a history of framing things to push a narrative about how well a game is doing, whether it be good or bad.

In this instance, he says Veilguard sold less than Outlaws (the game underperformed), he compares it to FF7R (the game launched on a single platform and failed to meet Squares expectations), he compares it to Dragon's Dogma 2 (a game that likely sold poorly in the UK compared to other markets). His claim that it's doing alright doesn't hold up to scrutiny, especially when we look at the other metrics available to us.

If he isn't being disingenuous, it feels like he is.

 

[Woopah]

I don't follow the guy closely but I have noticed that he has a history of framing things to push a narrative about how well a game is doing, whether it be good or bad.

In this instance, he says Veilguard sold less than Outlaws (the game underperformed), he compares it to FF7R (the game launched on a single platform and failed to meet Squares expectations), he compares it to Dragon's Dogma 2 (a game that likely sold poorly in the UK compared to other markets). His claim that it's doing alright doesn't hold up to scrutiny, especially when we look at the other metrics available to us.

If he isn't being disingenuous, it feels like he is.

So what do you think his objective is here? If he didn't want the sales to look bad, why say it sold less than Outlaws?

I'm trying to figure our what sort of narrative you think Chris is trying to push by saying he doesn't know what EA's expectations were, but the game did virtually identical to these other two RPGs but slightly worse than Outlaws' opening.

He's also said he expects the game to perform worse in continental Europe than the UK. Do you think that's his genuine thoughts, or is that him pushing a negative narrative about the game?

 

[Kacho]

So what do you think his objective is here? If he didn't want the sales to look bad, why say it sold less than Outlaws?

I'm trying to figure our what sort of narrative you think Chris is trying to push by saying he doesn't know what EA's expectations were, but the game did virtually identical to these other two RPGs but slightly worse than Outlaws' opening.

I think that’s what people are trying to figure out. You said others have accused him of having agendas in the past. Why does that keep happening if he doesn’t?

 

[March Climber]

These games tend to be front loaded it isn’t like Astro bot or other critical darlings.

For RPGs?

I don’t know man…I guess we will wait and see.

I doubt anyone here, except for the extremely opinionated, will actually care anymore about this DA:V sales argument on the day months or years from now when this game hits 19.99 or below.

People just want instant results to prove a point.

 

[Raven117]

True. It's just a curious thing I've noticed on the internet where a fair few people says Chris has an agenda, but they all believe he has different/opposite agendas.

So when someone says Chris has an agenda, I'm always curious why they think that.

No worries amigo. I had absolutely no idea who he was until opened this thread. Was just applying what seems to be the general rule when it comes to discussing this game on the internet

 

[Madflavor]

Farming Simulator 25 beat Veilguard's Peak CCU by 37k.

Confirmed, people would rather grow corn than play Veilguard.

 

[tmlDan]

A shame Rebirth has to be in the same sentence as this... thing.

I loved Rebirth and I hope more people will get to play it soon. (PC port will help that)

65 Million people have a PS5, a PC port won't help sadly.

But it didn't do bad at all, the UK is not the primary market that conveys success or failure

 

[Kotaro]

Steam number doesn’t back up his claim, but it’s UK, pretty small market

Globally they’re not in the same ballpark

DD2

Veilguard

 

[Dazraell]

People seem to struggle with the idea that this game can be neither a complete success, nor a complete failure. It's going to end up selling between 3-6 million copies and make most of its money back, or even turn a slight profit, but not to the extent that EA or BioWare will want to do it again.

Dragon's Dogma II had 2.5 million sold copies in 11 days while having 2.5 times larger Steam peaks. I know they are not indications of how game is performing on consoles, but they're good to extrapolate. I honestly doubt Veilguard has hit 3-6 million sold copies

 

[TheCed]

65 Million people have a PS5, a PC port won't help sadly.

But it didn't do bad at all, the UK is not the primary market that conveys success or failure

I don't expect a massive bump, but more players will be good.

Only way to make Ridiculous numbers would be to release it on Switch 2.

 

[tmlDan]

I don't expect a massive bump, but more players will be good.

Only way to make Ridiculous numbers would be to release it on Switch 2.

Again, switch 2 hasnt even launched, it doesnt have an install base. It will be sold out for months, it wont help that much at all, if it does, it'll be 4 years of slow growth

 

[TheChumpNation]

Dragon's Dogma II had 2.5 million sold copies in 11 days while having 2.5 times larger Steam peaks. I know they are not indications of how game is performing on consoles, but they're good to extrapolate. I honestly doubt Veilguard has hit 3-6 million sold copies

I'm certainly not suggesting it's sold 3-6 yet, that's my guess at lifetime sales.

I think there's a good chance Veilguard hasn't sold a million yet, or if it has then not much more than that.

 

[MayauMiao]