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[Mook1e]

DS is ahead by a couple hundred thousand.

Nu uh, Sony said they would double their installed base. PSP is about 1.7 million ahead in the US. :lol

 

[ziran]

ok
Famitsu reports that 5.44M is the shippment numbers, and 5 millions has been sold
http://www.famitsu.com/game/news/2005/12/26/103,1135580291,47155,0,0.html

back in nov i thought 4.5 million was a possibilty but seeing over 5 million sold before the end of the year is just crazy!

 

[elektrotal]

on christmas eve, there was a line of people waiting to buy DS's right outside of Gamers. I was taken aback, since i figured that everybody'd have gotten DSs by now. Perhaps there was a special deal or something (i couldnt read the kanji on the dude's sign).

 

[Mashing]

I knew I was right.

And you all doubted me.

It's not much of a different... 440k sitting in channels is not a whole lot when you sold over 5 million in a little over a years time.

 

[neo2046]

some graphs added
(and sorry that I need to go out and no time to explain
any Japnese experts here?
http://www.famitsu.com/game/news/2005/12/26/103,1135580291,47155,0,0.html

 

[Kroole]

Oh graphs *fap* *fap*

It sure is impressive. I just hope Nintendo (and third parties) will release some more games in the states or EU. The jp only list is growing larger and larger :/

 

[ziran]

Reuters:
http://today.reuters.com/news/newsa..._01_FLE634693_RTRUKOC_0_US-JAPAN-NINTENDO.xml

TOKYO (Reuters) - Domestic sales of Nintendo Co. Ltd.'s DS portable game machine reached 5 million units in less than 13 months after its launch in early December 2004, the fastest-ever pace in Japan's video game market, Nintendo said on Monday.

Nintendo's Game Boy Advance took 14 months to hit the 5 million mark in Japan, and Sony Corp.'s PlayStation 2 took 17 months, the Kyoto-based company said.

"Selling 5 million units in less than 14 months means DS is the fastest among any game machines ever launched in Japan to hit that level," Nintendo President Satoru Iwata told a news conference.

"To achieve this rapid growth, we were required not only to go after frequent game players, but to reel back people who had left games and to make video games enjoyable for those who had not played games at all."

Besides advanced video games with sophisticated graphics and realistic actions, Nintendo focuses on games for women, adults and seniors -- traditionally non-core segments for game makers -- in a bid to expand the overall game-playing population.

Domestic shipments of one such game, nintendogs, which lets players interact with virtual pets in the console, have so far totaled 1.08 million units, clearing the 1 million benchmark for a hit game.

Shares in Nintendo, known for software titles featuring characters such as Mario, Donkey Kong and Pokemon, rose 0.9 percent to close at 13,890 yen on Monday, while the Nikkei average gained 1.0 percent.

 

[cvxfreak]

Wow... further shipment info:
Nintendogs: 1.08 million
Brain Training: 1.38 million
Gentle brain flexing: 1.08 million
Animal Crossing: 1.27 million

Four million sellers in a year!

And we got the Famicom Mini Super Mario Brothers which recently broke a million as well.

 

[Dynamite Shikoku]

those graphs have nice colours

 

[BorkBork]

Daymn, I remember a few months ago people (me included) were being optimistic in predicting FOUR million sold. Good for Nintendo to be able to maintain supply levels as well during this insane surge.

 

[Oblivion]

And we got the Famicom Mini Super Mario Brothers which recently broke a million as well.

It did? I thought it was at 800k or something last month. That's awesome!

 

[starship]

TOKYO (Reuters) - Domestic sales of Nintendo Co. Ltd.'s DS portable game machine reached 5 million units in less than 13 months after its launch in early December 2004, the fastest-ever pace in Japan's video game market, Nintendo said on Monday.

Nintendo's Game Boy Advance took 14 months to hit the 5 million mark in Japan, and Sony Corp.'s PlayStation 2 took 17 months, the Kyoto-based company said.

"Selling 5 million units in less than 14 months means DS is the fastest among any game machines ever launched in Japan to hit that level," Nintendo President Satoru Iwata told a news conference.

"To achieve this rapid growth, we were required not only to go after frequent game players, but to reel back people who had left games and to make video games enjoyable for those who had not played games at all."

Besides advanced video games with sophisticated graphics and realistic actions, Nintendo focuses on games for women, adults and seniors -- traditionally non-core segments for game makers -- in a bid to expand the overall game-playing population.

Domestic shipments of one such game, nintendogs, which lets players interact with virtual pets in the console, have so far totaled 1.08 million units, clearing the 1 million benchmark for a hit game.

Shares in Nintendo, known for software titles featuring characters such as Mario, Donkey Kong and Pokemon, rose 0.9 percent to close at 13,890 yen on Monday, while the Nikkei average gained 1.0 percent.

With the sales of last two weeks of the year, DS sales will easily reach 5.5 million units in 13 months. Kudos to Nintendo

 

[Merlin]

 

[ioi]

Wow... further shipment info:
Nintendogs: 1.08 million
Brain Training: 1.38 million
Gentle brain flexing: 1.08 million
Animal Crossing: 1.27 million

Four million sellers in a year!

Well this shows what I've been saying for a long time now that Media Create / Famitsu numbers when you come to Nintendo are WAY too low.

Those numbers are amazing, and they haven't stopped yet- all four games are in the weekly top 10 still and still some big sales over next few weeks of the holiday period.

Nintendo "shipped" numbers tend to be very close to the actual numbers- they obviously have regular shipments each week or whatever, so these numbers are probably as of the 25th Dec, with a couple of big weeks of sales left yet.

 

[Kurosaki Ichigo]

Yeah sure, Nintendo shipped = sold.

You people are lovely :lol

 

[AniHawk]

Well this shows what I've been saying for a long time now that Media Create / Famitsu numbers when you come to Nintendo are WAY too low.

Those numbers are amazing, and they haven't stopped yet- all four games are in the weekly top 10 still and still some big sales over next few weeks of the holiday period.

Nintendo "shipped" numbers tend to be very close to the actual numbers- they obviously have regular shipments each week or whatever, so these numbers are probably as of the 25th Dec, with a couple of big weeks of sales left yet.

The only sell-through numbers I've seen from Nintendo have been used in their US PR stuff. Everything else is always shipped.

 

[ioi]

It's true.

They don't tend to ship much more than they can sell in the next week or so, which makes sense doesn't it really?

I'd guess those shipment numbers won't cover much into next week as even using conservative numbers you have Animal Crossing on:

350k week 1
150k week 2
140k week 3
200k week 4 (ending the 18th Dec, 840k LTD)
~270k ending the 25th Dec (LTD 1.11m)

So the other 160k they have shipped won't last much more than another week. Same with the "shipped" 5.54m- if they have sold 5m+ by Dec 25th then another half a million won't last much more than a week and a half.

 

[ioi]

The only sell-through numbers I've seen from Nintendo have been used in their US PR stuff. Everything else is always shipped.

I know it's shipped, what I'm saying is that:

Nintendo shipped ~ 1.1 * sold

or

Nintendo shipped = sold + estimated next 2 weeks sales


Instead of the Sony version where

2 * sold > sony shipped > 1.5 * sold

or

sony shipped = sold + estimated next 2-3 months of sales

ok?


And don't forget that the four million sellers are soon to be joined by Mario Kart and Tamogotchi at the very least.

 

[Kurosaki Ichigo]

Brain Training 911.441 x 1.1 = 1.002.585
378k copies disagree with you, sold 56k last week

Gentle Brain Training 772.847 x 1.1 = 850.131
230k copies disagree with you, sold 47k last week

DS number is short(age) but not the games ones :/

 

[AniHawk]

I have no idea what just happened.

 

[Dynamite Shikoku]

haha

 

[ioi]

Brain Training 911.441 x 1.1 = 1.002.585
378k copies disagree with you, sold 56k last week

Gentle Brain Training 772.847 x 1.1 = 850.131
230k copies disagree with you, sold 47k last week

DS number is short(age) but not the games ones :/

Yeah, I'm confused as well!!

Take a look at:

http://www.everythingandnothing.org.uk/vg/japweekly.php?date=38704

These are sales of LAST WEEK (18th Dec) and are themselves estimates as with everything else that we get APART from numbers from Nintendo.

They have:

Brain Training 1065k + ~95k this week (ending the 25th) = 1.16m ~ 220k left in stock (which makes me think our numbers for Brain Training are low).
Gentle BT 908k + ~80k this week = 0.99m, ~90k left in stock

 

[ioi]

Here's my point and I have to go since it's xmas and all that.

If by the end of next year, Nintendo say they shipped 1.65m copies of Brain Training and Famitsu only say that they sold 1,275,459 copies then who is / was right?

Are we seriously suggesting that there will be 375k copies sitting on shelves?

That Nintendo mis-judged demand that badly (even though the game is a long-term seller and so very easy to judge how many copies to keep making) or that Famitsu are tracking way too low, ~80% of what is actually being sold for that game?

 

[Kurosaki Ichigo]

Those are the numbers YOU (and only you) are using xD

Anyway, hand down the gun before you hurt someone...

 

[AniHawk]

Here's my point and I have to go since it's xmas and all that.

If by the end of next year, Nintendo say they shipped 1.65m copies of Brain Training and Famitsu only say that they sold 1,275,459 copies then who is / was right?

Are we seriously suggesting that there will be 375k copies sitting on shelves?

That Nintendo mis-judged demand that badly (even though the game is a long-term seller and so very easy to judge how many copies to keep making) or that Famitsu are tracking way too low, ~80% of what is actually being sold for that game?

What it means is that that's how many have been shipped, and may eventually be bought up (Nintendo may end up buying a couple copies back, but with a popular title like that, I seriously doubt it). Famitsu isn't counting too low, and neither is MC (though MC is more accurate. Higher number doesn't = more accurate by the way. I've seen people use this logic when Famitsu > MC in something. Famitsu approximates for more stores than MC, which gives them a higher margin of error than MC).

Anyway, it's late and I'm tired.

 

[ioi]

What it means is that that's how many have been shipped, and may eventually be bought up (Nintendo may end up buying a couple copies back, but with a popular title like that, I seriously doubt it). Famitsu isn't counting too low, and neither is MC (though MC is more accurate. Higher number doesn't = more accurate by the way. I've seen people use this logic when Famitsu > MC in something. Famitsu approximates for more stores than MC, which gives them a higher margin of error than MC).

Anyway, it's late and I'm tired.

Well it's early and I have turkey to eat but I'm not saying higher means it's more accurate.

I'm saying that numbers from Nintendo (the company who is actually making the game and presumably have a pretty good grasp of how many copies they have made and shipped and how many of them have been sold through and what the demand for them is and how many to keep making etc) are more accurate than numbers from a tracking service who poll ~50% of all retailers and extrapolate their numbers up from that.

I'm trying to use a bit of simple logic- if you're Nintendo are you seriously gonna have 400,000 copies extra of a game sitting in stores that has been out about 7-8 months, that is just about to have a sequel come out and is just about to drop off back to ~15-20k a week after the holidays?

Now I'm sure Nintendo are experienced, but how do they know that they will sell another 400k copies of the game? It's a hell of a risk to take.

Also, why is there a 300k difference between Nintendo's shipped numbers for Brain Training and Gentle Brain Training, and only ~130k difference according to Media Create and Famitsu when it's likely that if anything, Gentle will sell more into the new year as Brain Training 2 will eat into the originals sales?

Also Nintendo annouced 1m copies of Brain Training sold about mid November, when Famitsu and MC had it on about 700k. Again, you really think they had 300k sitting in shops? It kind of suggests that Famitsu and MC are too low for Brain Training.

It's just a bit of simple logic really... I don't know why people are arguing, same goes for lots of other games. Media Create and Famitsu had RE4 on GC at ~230k, capcom only shipped 210k. Are you saying that the shops themselves made an extra 20k copies?

Famitsu and Media Create had GT4 at about 980k, Sony shipped 1.09 million, are 110k sitting in shops now? (the game is only selling less than a thousand a week)?

I'm just highlighting the point that Famitsu and Media Create are not as accurate as people sometimes think.

 

[BudokaiMR2]

Good to see it is selling nice. Recently in stores here in Japan I have seen a lot getting sold. It really seemed like a hot item this christmas in Japan.

I have been going to Yodobashi Umeda a lot lately (friends in from america who love electronics) and the christmas lines seemed dominated by people buying DS software.

And the X360 piles seemed to get smaller at a rate of 1 unit a day. :lol

 

[PeachSmasher]

whats the overall software sold on the ds compaired to the software sold on the PSP

 

[thestopsign]

whats the overall software sold on the ds compaired to the software sold on the PSP

The ratio is probably pretty close to 6:1. I need to go check that out. Dalthien should know about how much.

 

[Jonnyram]

At the conference, Nintendo also announced a number of holiday phrasebook carts will go on sale in March for 2800 each, including: America, Germany, Thailand, China and S.Korea.
http://www.gpara.com/news/05/12/news200512260768.htm

I wonder if any of them will outsell Talkman

 

[sonycowboy]

Well it's early and I have turkey to eat but I'm not saying higher means it's more accurate.

I'm saying that numbers from Nintendo (the company who is actually making the game and presumably have a pretty good grasp of how many copies they have made and shipped and how many of them have been sold through and what the demand for them is and how many to keep making etc) are more accurate than numbers from a tracking service who poll ~50% of all retailers and extrapolate their numbers up from that.

I'm trying to use a bit of simple logic- if you're Nintendo are you seriously gonna have 400,000 copies extra of a game sitting in stores that has been out about 7-8 months, that is just about to have a sequel come out and is just about to drop off back to ~15-20k a week after the holidays?

Now I'm sure Nintendo are experienced, but how do they know that they will sell another 400k copies of the game? It's a hell of a risk to take.

Also, why is there a 300k difference between Nintendo's shipped numbers for Brain Training and Gentle Brain Training, and only ~130k difference according to Media Create and Famitsu when it's likely that if anything, Gentle will sell more into the new year as Brain Training 2 will eat into the originals sales?

Also Nintendo annouced 1m copies of Brain Training sold about mid November, when Famitsu and MC had it on about 700k. Again, you really think they had 300k sitting in shops? It kind of suggests that Famitsu and MC are too low for Brain Training.

It's just a bit of simple logic really... I don't know why people are arguing, same goes for lots of other games. Media Create and Famitsu had RE4 on GC at ~230k, capcom only shipped 210k. Are you saying that the shops themselves made an extra 20k copies?

Famitsu and Media Create had GT4 at about 980k, Sony shipped 1.09 million, are 110k sitting in shops now? (the game is only selling less than a thousand a week)?

I'm just highlighting the point that Famitsu and Media Create are not as accurate as people sometimes think.

Bookmarks this next time Sony announces numbers

Seriously though, I hope people do realize that ALL of the tracking services are estimate/projections. And they all apply essentially the same extrapolation to ALL games, despite the fact that different genre and different systems sell at different rates at various retailers.

The numbers give us a very good idea of what sales are and certainly relative to other games, but they aren't "true" numbers.

 

[thestopsign]

Okay I got Dalthien's #s.

DS ~ 10,261,215
PSP ~ 3,728,178
Ratio DS/PSP ~ 2.75

I overestimated since there are 7 games that have sold more than the PSP's top selling game on the DS. Pretty much all of the PSP's high sellers are from launch.

 

[Jonnyram]

I'm saying that numbers from Nintendo (the company who is actually making the game and presumably have a pretty good grasp of how many copies they have made and shipped and how many of them have been sold through and what the demand for them is and how many to keep making etc) are more accurate than numbers from a tracking service who poll ~50% of all retailers and extrapolate their numbers up from that.

Nintendo knows exactly how many they've shipped, but for true sales, they only have the same data we have, i.e. Media Create, Enterbrain, MediaWorks, Oricon and other research companies. They don't do their own sales tracking.

I'm trying to use a bit of simple logic- if you're Nintendo are you seriously gonna have 400,000 copies extra of a game sitting in stores that has been out about 7-8 months, that is just about to have a sequel come out and is just about to drop off back to ~15-20k a week after the holidays?

Here's some food for thought. I can walk into nearly any game shop in Japan and buy a new copy of Super Mario Advance. Some of the shops have more than one copy in stock. Do you seriously think the shipment numbers are closer to the sales numbers than a game like Shadow of the Colossus, which is out of stock in many stores already?

Now I'm sure Nintendo are experienced, but how do they know that they will sell another 400k copies of the game? It's a hell of a risk to take.

They don't actually ship games unless retailers order them, so the risk is with the retailer, not Nintendo. Part of the thinking behind DS's new cart format, though, is to make orders quicker to turnaround, so if retailers are bearish and order few copies, but the game turns out to be ultra-popular, a new batch can be up and running quickly.

Also, why is there a 300k difference between Nintendo's shipped numbers for Brain Training and Gentle Brain Training, and only ~130k difference according to Media Create and Famitsu when it's likely that if anything, Gentle will sell more into the new year as Brain Training 2 will eat into the originals sales?

Because Gentle Brain Flexing sold less than Brain Training perhaps? Also, Brain Training 2 has been misappropriately labelled a sequel by you and others. It's a separate title and is unlikely to eat into sales of the original title. The training is more kanji-based.

Also Nintendo annouced 1m copies of Brain Training sold about mid November, when Famitsu and MC had it on about 700k. Again, you really think they had 300k sitting in shops? It kind of suggests that Famitsu and MC are too low for Brain Training.

Researchers don't have perfect numbers, but it is also true that Brain Training is a well-stocked game, nationwide, because of its long legs. It's also sold in non-game stores because of its massive appeal. It's not totally unfeasible that there may be a couple hundred thousand copies in stores right now, esp. considering the game sells 50k a week.

It's just a bit of simple logic really... I don't know why people are arguing, same goes for lots of other games. Media Create and Famitsu had RE4 on GC at ~230k, capcom only shipped 210k. Are you saying that the shops themselves made an extra 20k copies?

There's something wrong there, but I don't know if it's with the sales researchers or Capcom's figures.

Famitsu and Media Create had GT4 at about 980k, Sony shipped 1.09 million, are 110k sitting in shops now? (the game is only selling less than a thousand a week)?

Perhaps the PStwo bundle doesn't count towards software sales for Media Create and co., but Sony counts the production numbers at their side?

I'm just highlighting the point that Famitsu and Media Create are not as accurate as people sometimes think.

They're the best we have in terms of actual sales, though, and your crusade to prove otherwise is generally overzealous and underachieving.

 

[soundwave05]

I generally just assume actual sales are 10-20% higher in most cases than tracked numbers.

You'll never have actual numbers that account for every single copy that is sold at retail.

The other thing is, if Nintendo has shipped that many, they should eventually sell out anyway, all four of those titles are still selling, three of them are selling in large quantites.

 

[SantaC]

bah why make such a big deal out of shipped vs sold, everybody knows that DS has done amazing in Japan anyway.

 

[elostyle]

I think the tracking for a game like brain training is less accurate than for a game like SotC etc.

 

[soundwave05]

bah why make such a big deal out of shipped vs sold, everybody knows that DS has done amazing in Japan anyway.

Yeah, shipping/sold numbers should only set off alarm bells if there's a *huge* descrepancy between shipped numbers and sales data from indepedent sources.

 

[marvelharvey]

bah why make such a big deal out of shipped vs sold, everybody knows that DS has done amazing in Japan anyway.

Well, there are no sales numbers this week, but if all went according to Nintendo's plan, they will pass the 5million mark tomorrow or the day after... which will mean that there are only 440,000 left in stores (less than 1 week's worth of sales!). Nintendo better ship some more, quickly!

 

[Acosta]

I´m sure lot of us wouldn´t believe this numbres if someone from the future would have brought this one year ago.

It´s really impressive.

 

[koam]

This does NOT mean that the DS sales this week were 800K. The sales numbers we see from Media Create are only numbers from the stores that they survey so they are lower than the actuals. They give a good representation on how much the games/consoles sell but they aren't the whole picture.

 

[Pimpwerx]

Bookmarks this next time Sony announces numbers

Seriously though, I hope people do realize that ALL of the tracking services are estimate/projections. And they all apply essentially the same extrapolation to ALL games, despite the fact that different genre and different systems sell at different rates at various retailers.

The numbers give us a very good idea of what sales are and certainly relative to other games, but they aren't "true" numbers.

Aha! I've said this before, and thought I might have just been damage controlling, but it's right. Sales trackers have a percent error built-in that I don't think has ever been nailed down. They show relative performance, but not exact performance. Good for tracking how sw/hw are doing, but not exactly ideal for tallies. I wonder, then, why some of the regular sales fiends on here consistently quote MC/MCV/NPD figures whenever discussing sales. I assume shipping figures are more reliable since shipments only increase with demand. That and shipments aren't extrapolated. The drawback is that a good number of months needs to be reserved to make sure shipments are actually selling through instead of a stagnant situation like we saw with the DC. Yeah...I'm rambling. PEACE.

 

[Ponn]

The hypocrisy in this thread is hilarious :lol Oh well. Hopefully we will no longer see these idiotic shipped/=sales posts anymore.

 

[malek4980]

Hypocrisy? Nintendo will surpas 5.44 million units sold in Japan no more than two weeks. When the fuck will Sony sell the 10 million PSP's they said they shipped worldwide way back in October!?

 

[Gahiggidy]

Holy shit. THey pretty much cruches the GameCube's lifetime sales in little over a year.


I think Revolutin could very well see similiar results, my bet is north of 4 million by the end of Xmas 2007.

 

[soundwave05]

I think Nintendo will take bigger risks now with Revolution software ... with GameCube they stuck too closely to the safety blanket of their mascot characters and it limited the appeal of the system.

In Japan, GameCube was basically the Smash Brothers console.

 

[_PsiFire_]

I really thought Nintendo was going to have a tougher battle than this. I thought they were going have to rely on Pokemon to get/remain ahead of the PSP.

Well, I was wrong.. Nintendo can now milk it and when they DO release a real pair of Pokemon RPG's Sony will never catch up (in Japan at least).

 

[GhaleonEB]

I really thought Nintendo was going to have a tougher battle than this. I thought they were going have to rely on Pokemon to get/remain ahead of the PSP.

Well, I was wrong.. Nintendo can now milk it and when they DO release a real pair of Pokemon RPG's Sony will never catch up (in Japan at least).

It's almost scary to think what the DS could do when Pokemon hits. If they land on top of the current flow of system-selling software from Nintendo, it's going to be crazy.

 

[AndoCalrissian]

It's almost scary to think what the DS could do when Pokemon hits. If they land on top of the current flow of system-selling software from Nintendo, it's going to be crazy.

Not only that, if they put it online NWC is going to blow up!

 

[monkeyrun]

The hypocrisy in this thread is hilarious :lol Oh well. Hopefully we will no longer see these idiotic shipped/=sales posts anymore.

you know sometime it's good if you just shut up and stay out of some threads...

you'll need to be an idiot to think that shipped = sales.

And in this case the margin of error is less than 10%.

By the time Sony's difference between Shipped and sales number is less than 10% then we'll talk.

 

[Version 3.0]

By the time Sony's difference between Shipped and sales number is less than 10% then we'll talk.

Amen. Sony's shipped numbers are always way, way higher than Nintendo's vs. Media-Create or vs. NPD.

Why? Maybe Nintendo is more efficient at shipping, or ships more frequently. Maybe retailers are more willing to stock Sony's products further in advance. Maybe Sony's stuff actually does sell better at the non-tracked locations (in both territories). Maybe Sony just likes to add 20% to their real numbers. Who knows? But it's blatantly obvious to anyone who cares to look.