Puzzle & Dragons has now hit 36 million downloads in Japan and 7 million in the US: https://twitter.com/serkantoto/status/600922501892419584
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Media Create Sales: Week 20, 2015 (May 11 - May 17)
- Thread starter hiska-kun
- Start date
The same amount of time we will talk that Nintendo is dead until it really happens =P
So what are the prospects here? Does high quality gaming of the type that exists now just die in favor of lighter experiences? Mobile might be big but it isn't really filling the gaps. It seems to me unlikely that everyone would suddenly give that up, even the heterogeneous "casual" market has people that plays some of these games but how do you sell them if they are resistant to buying the hardware? TV STBs with controllers? Do phones become commoditized such that we get gaming class variants? Ninten-phones? Are we just waiting for the big companies to collapse and reform as indies with renewed interest in what becomes an underserved market?
Kresnik258
Member
They're LTD. Codename STEAM will outsell them because it'll get some retailer bomba bin discounts which should push it above them at least.
It may not outsell Natural Doctrine though... another poorly-received third person SRPG.
theprodigy
Member
hey Nirolak, self-promotion isn't allowed here ( ͝° ͜ʖ͡°)
Interfectum
Member
Nirolak gets too much enjoyment out of this.
LordOcidax
Member
3 more weeks for MK8 to reach 1 million in Japan, that attach rate is amazing.
Come now, if I ran Gung-Ho, we would have at least considered releasing more games by now, and definitely wouldn't have bought Grasshopper!
Freedom = $1.05
Banned
So the top game this week sold as well as DS Beautiful Letter Training did well after launch in 2008.
DS Beautiful Letter Training
Japan's console market is on life support right now
DS Beautiful Letter Training
Japan's console market is on life support right now
vinnygambini
Why are strippers at the U.N. bad when they're great at strip clubs???
may as well skip media create threads until FE, depressing.
Splatoon is much sooner than that, though!
Does anyone expect Splatoon to do well? Especially in Japan?
ThatStupidLion
Member
Does japan even enjoy console gaming anymore?
theprodigy
Member
Splatoon looks like it will actually do pretty well for a Wii U game in Japan
however, yeah Fire Emblem is the next big title here
How do you define well?
I expect over 100K/FW sales and around 350K lifetime in Japan
I feel like the mobile revolution is a classic example of the old concept of "first they came for X, and I did nothing. Then they came for Y, and I said nothing. Then they came for what I liked, and it was too late."
The mobile revolution didn't happen overnight; it has gradually been siphoning away customers for more than half a decade now, and people didn't really care when it was just the casual gamers (and casual games) leaving. But then, over time, it started siphoning away things like Breath of Fire or causing industry stalwarts to leave the console industry entirely, and suddenly it was a big deal.
I feel like Sony and Nintendo -- along with their fans -- seemed to shrug it off as long as their core audience still seemed engaged. If there was ever a hope of stopping this migration, that opportunity has long since passed. They would have had to fight for those "casual" consumers much more aggressively, because they are the future.
The mobile revolution didn't happen overnight; it has gradually been siphoning away customers for more than half a decade now, and people didn't really care when it was just the casual gamers (and casual games) leaving. But then, over time, it started siphoning away things like Breath of Fire or causing industry stalwarts to leave the console industry entirely, and suddenly it was a big deal.
I feel like Sony and Nintendo -- along with their fans -- seemed to shrug it off as long as their core audience still seemed engaged. If there was ever a hope of stopping this migration, that opportunity has long since passed. They would have had to fight for those "casual" consumers much more aggressively, because they are the future.
KoopaTheCasual
Junior Member
KillerMan91
Member
SuperLeviathan
Member
I was expecting STEAM to do at least slightly better than it did, since it was Amiibo-compatible and Nintendo pushed that pretty hard in the direct.
Smiles and Cries
Member
Deserves it
Freedom = $1.05
Banned
I feel like once legit Dragon Quest games came out on major mobile platforms and not just another rerelease of DQ1 and DQ2 that at that point all the smoke we had been ignoring became a fire that can't be put out.
The last hope was that the PS4 would do Wii-like numbers and that at least developers could justify to publishers that making those investments would be worth it.
I know that Horii has supposedly stated that the next true DQ game isn't going to be a mobile exclusive but I would be legit surprised if it isn't just a multiplatform blast on just about every viable machine, including mobile. The market has spoken.
I'd say 100k-150k first week would be pretty good. I don't actually expect it to reach that, but of course I'd be glad if it did.
After the at best mediocre performance of both Final Fantasy remasters Type0 and FFX/X2, I wouldn´t be too surpised if SQEX isn´t in a hurry to launch FF15.
PS4 declining even with a Final Fantasy release.
PSV towards sub 10k units, despite system-seller Minecraft pushing systems.
Steam, its aesthetics simply aren´t too appealing, kind of surprised they went through with it, with no resistence, too bad since I´ve heard good things about the game.
PS4 declining even with a Final Fantasy release.
PSV towards sub 10k units, despite system-seller Minecraft pushing systems.
Steam, its aesthetics simply aren´t too appealing, kind of surprised they went through with it, with no resistence, too bad since I´ve heard good things about the game.
lol because those are brand new games right
Do you have an idea of how P&D compares to Clash of Clans? Interested in seeing how the mobile market differs in Japan vs the US/world. If it differs at all.
Nintendo's already going mobile. Can't fight wind.
Sgt. Garlic
Member
Horrendous numbers. Has to be one of the worst weeks ever. Mobile is the future in Japan it seems; and codename STEAM came out this week? Yikes.
That1BlackGuy
Member
I've often said this but I don't know why Square Enix have not embraced console/PC F2P titles more. I assume they've seen success in their mobile efforts and A Realm Reborn is doing well. Now F2P isn't inherently a jail free card, but a line of quality F2P titles could do very well for them and more so they have the IP and legacy brand awareness to probably pull it off. Larger F2P/Digital Games = Console/PC preferred markets, 'Mobile' Games = Phones/Tablets/Portables with the occasional crossover titles that can be suited to both. Instead of developing expensive, graphically intensive games with front loaded sales, develop 'less expensive' games and build your portfolio around long term money makers with less risk and larger access to more gamers. I believe that a mainline Final Fantasy F2P game could be quite fruitful in the long run alongside their mobile and MMO output.
To tie that in to Japan specifically, SE should focus on servicing them with mobile games as that's where the big money seems to be for now and the immediate future and satisfying what's left of their home console market with smartly budgeted console F2P and digital games. Japan ain't really checking for blockbuster home console games anymore and larger Japanese Gaming Companies like SE (and others) should be adapting to that reality.
A fad, not a mistake.
I don't believe we get numbers for Clash of Clans.
Candy Crush Saga was over 500 million in 2013 though: http://www.theverge.com/2013/11/15/5107794/candy-crush-saga-500-million-downloads
However, keep in mind that Japan only has 127 million people, so 36 million downloads is a huge percentage of the population.
They are trying somewhat, but it's a slow rolling process.
From the West they have Nosgoth and Heroes & Generals, and from Japan they have Spelunker Z and the Lord of Vermillion MOBA.
How exactly would you propose they would have stopped said migration? Many mobile users won't touch a gaming console. That's the inherent issue. Cell phones are a part of everyday life for everyone. Consoles are not. No software or hardware can change that.
Sony is the only one who didn't pander to the casual audience with the PS4 and it's proven to be the most successful strategy out of the three console makers.
Nintendo's casual software offerings on Wii U fell flat on their face. Those games were a mistake. I do think that Nintendo didn't quite try hard enough with their casual software though, mostly from a marketing perspective (although not creating a new Wii Sports was mind boggling imo).
Going all in on fickle casual consumer doesn't seem like the best strategy, even some mobile companies that were very successful tried to build a base and failed.
Mobile is definitely the future, but mobile devices will also evolve over time. There is no reason why premium experiences can't eventually be had as the hardware improves rapidly. Gunning for bottom of the barrel F2P schemes is not the only future for mobile (in my opinion).
Pastor Martin Niemöller:
So it would be something like that :
First they came for the casuals, and I did not speak out—
Because I was not a casuals.
Then they came for the mid tier developers, and I did not speak out—
Because I was not a mid tier gamer.
Then they came for the Japanes market, and I did not speak out—
Because I was not a Japanese gamer.
Then they came for me—and there was no one left to speak for me
Are we good... win ? :]
Davey Cakes
Member
I know these threads typically skew towards the negative but...
This is the first time in the while that I've been taken aback by just how bad the numbers are. Everything dropped hard.
The top selling game only at 15,000? Jesus.
At least Xenoblade X is over 100K and Mario Kart is 2-3 weeks from 1 million over there.
This is the first time in the while that I've been taken aback by just how bad the numbers are. Everything dropped hard.
The top selling game only at 15,000? Jesus.
At least Xenoblade X is over 100K and Mario Kart is 2-3 weeks from 1 million over there.
The Wii did a pretty good job, back in the day. So did the DS. They needed to follow along those lines -- instead, the Wii U and 3DS moved back towards more "core" or "traditional" offerings.
That's essentially what I'm suggesting, yes. Half-measures aren't enough; Nintendo (and Sony and Microsoft) needed to go all in. Instead of making consoles built for "core" buyers that casual consumers could also play, they needed to build their consoles for the casuals first and foremost. Much cheaper, smaller, and in Nintendo's case, much better networked.
It does to me. Certainly better than dying slowly but relentlessly. I don't think casual consumers are "fickle," however, they just have different needs.
No argument here, but this only reinforces my point; there probably was a place for Nintendo or Sony to move in here, but they missed that opportunity.
But Nintendo did fight for the casuals, the problem was the rest of the market didn't. These consoles aren't doing well because they don't have healthy development. A lot of the move to mobile was a way to fix chronic management problems by providing investors with new revenue streams. Japanese publishers got destroyed last gen trying to keep up with the west and not having the type of development strategies to make it workable. Rather than expand on the existing platforms to new audiences they doubled down on the core market (and the western core at that), failed, and then went limping to "the new promised land" with expectations of lowered dev costs and the occasional jackpot payout. What was left was that each had one or two properties that they could make money with on consoles and all mid-tier and experimental development was shuttered and all their talent got fed up and went independent. And because they never bothered to foster indies a lot of those never came back to the rigid console development structure (only now are we starting to see it at the appeal of western audiences, publishers and kickstarters).
I think the biggest difference between Japan and the US was that Japanese publishers killed their own market. Trains and phone games have been around since the PS2 days, it hasn't changed that much. People seem to be leaving consoles because there's not enough to stick around for and it's created a toxic cycle where the device barrier has become too high for the rest because the synergy broke down.
I tried telling Opiate this, but said mod is firmly entrenched in the idea that this massive gigantic wave of smartphone users was born out of people who are rebels against consoles.
Obviously not the case though. Smartphones exist as multi-use devices and everyone has one for convenience. Thus, people will try to maximize their gaming convenience with the device since it's always on them, simple as that. No console software or lack thereof can alter the path that smartphones created.
No past grudges against Kinect. No past rebellion. Just a trend shift combined with convenience when everyone owns capable hardware that they carry with them all the time.
That's exactly it. Western AAA is the last hold out.
That1BlackGuy
Member
Codename STEAM sales are really bad, that game seemed to be dead on arrival and further compounded with a nasty week in general.
Yeah I am familiar with them all sans Heroes & Generals. I do wonder how Nosgoth is doing since it was officially released earlier this year while I believe LoV:Arena was in Alpha last I checked and I'm" not sure about Spelunker Z.
Yeah I am familiar with them all sans Heroes & Generals. I do wonder how Nosgoth is doing since it was officially released earlier this year while I believe LoV:Arena was in Alpha last I checked and I'm" not sure about Spelunker Z.
Cosmo Clock 21
Banned
Yeah, this is it, not some salty notion of consumers not fighting back hard enough about mobilization of gaming.
This is exactly it. And it's not something that just affects gaming either. The digital music / streaming uptake in recent years can largely be credited to people having iPhones and receiving iTunes as a bonus.
The Hermit
Member
Console gaming was a mistake.
3DS version pay monthly subscription more than console version