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Media Create Sales: Week 46, 2013 (Nov 11 - Nov 17)

I can see this game selling to both the EO and Persona audience so it could strive for 200k.

That's feasible. Having a Persona coating and slightly more robust presentation should broaden its appeal a lil more than EO (and more successfully than the EO1 remake), but nothing drastic as it is still essentially a dungeon crawler with primarily first person gameplay.
 

Yanikun

Banned
It was at 245k before falling off.
Yeah, that number is through June 30th.

We have more recent numbers from Dengeki.


According to Dengeki, Shin Megami Tensei 4 is at 258,525 LTD as of September 30th.

Thank you, that's really helpful. A lot of people on the interwebs seem to think the Shin Megami/Persona/Etrian Odyssey series are way bigger than they actually are. 250k would be a pretty massive success for PQ, I see it at ~175k.
 

Mario007

Member
Oh I agree with you, I just won't go to the mat over it prior to a system coming out.

Post release I'm likely to actively argue with people who say there are announcements that are being asked to be held back either formally or informally.

It's not 100% insane sounding to me if someone wanted to argue that a vendor went "It would be cool if you announced a game right before the system came out to generate more hype for launch.", even if I find it unlikely. I think it makes zero sense to make that argument at any point beyond that.

But yeah as of today my projection for the PS4 is that it will tank a few weeks post launch until at least Fall if not longer, depending on if publishers have forsaken it as much as they have seem to.
I think PS4 will be 'fine' in the context that in 2-3 years the system will sell quite well. It seems Japan really has just figured out this gen and for them the next gen itch probably won't be coming in till at least autumn 2014 (I'm talking about the publishers). Basically it took good 5-6 year for the Japanese publishers to figure out that their audience is on the ps3 after they tried and failed with MS moneyhats and the Wii and DS expanded audiences. As a result we now see so many JRPGs and other Japanese titles being exclusively on the ps3. The ps4 can rest assured that it'll get games like Tales, Yakuza (a numbered titles), RE and so on which will bring expanded audience for niche titles. It's just gonna take a year or two for the transition. I mean even in the West we'll be seeing titles like DA3 being cross platform next autumn.
 

Celine

Member
Persona is now 400k-ish LTD game in Japan alone now. Now the userbase is nearing Tales series (not quite but getting there).
It'll be interesting because as for Tales series they're going into Next gen, unlike like Atlus.
More like 300K-ish...
 

Thorgal

Member
Something i wanted to ask for a while and this thread is the best place to ask.
Historically . Are Japanese developers Always late to support the new system fully and dropping the old one ?

Like. even in the heydays when PS2 launched in Japan was there a significant gap until developers dropped The PS1 and fully jumped onto PS2 development ?

I do not mean like Cross-gen titles (did those even exist back then ? ) but titles developed specifically for the old console even tough PS2 was already out at that time until a year or two later they dropped the PS1
 

schuelma

Wastes hours checking old Famitsu software data, but that's why we love him.
Basically it took good 5-6 year for the Japanese publishers to figure out that their audience is on the ps3 after they tried and failed with MS moneyhats and the Wii and DS expanded audiences. .

I don't think that is correct at all. I think it is more accurate to say it took 4-5 years for Japanese publishers to force the market onto the PS3 through brute force. You can count with one hand the number of significant titles that went to Nintendo and Microsoft platforms before later finding success on PS3.

Just look at the releases- 3rd parties were always there on PS3- it just took a long time to build up that userbase because the install base was so low in 2007-2008.
 

Mario007

Member
I don't think that is correct at all. I think it is more accurate to say it took 4-5 years for Japanese publishers to force the market onto the PS3 through brute force. You can count with one hand the number of significant titles that went to Nintendo and Microsoft platforms before later finding success on PS3.

Just look at the releases- 3rd parties were always there on PS3- it just took a long time to build up that userbase because the install base was so low in 2007-2008.
Well I'll admit I've only been following media create threads for 2 years or so but my impression was that the market at the start wanted to cash in on Wii's expanded audience and ps3 lost a huge number of games innitially to Xbox as MS wanted to break into the market. After both have failed the games first started to appear on the ps3.
 

kswiston

Member
At previous gen if you even guessed that Persona outselling FF in Japan people had called you crazy.
I can't believe that FF sales (speculation) has fallen so much that this even becomes possibility.

Lightning Returns is not being treated like a mainline game.
 
Something i wanted to ask for a while and this thread is the best place to ask.
Historically . Are Japanese developers Always late to support the new system fully and dropping the old one ?

Like. even in the heydays when PS2 launched in Japan was there a significant gap until developers dropped The PS1 and fully jumped onto PS2 development ?

I do not mean like Cross-gen titles (did those even exist back then ? ) but titles developed specifically for the old console even tough PS2 was already out at that time until a year or two later they dropped the PS1

They jumped on the PS2.
 

schuelma

Wastes hours checking old Famitsu software data, but that's why we love him.
Well I'll admit I've only been following media create threads for 2 years or so but my impression was that the market at the start wanted to cash in on Wii's expanded audience and ps3 lost a huge number of games innitially to Xbox as MS wanted to break into the market. After both have failed the games first started to appear on the ps3.


Not really. PS3 received more high profile 3rd party games right from the start. The best example for your point is the Tales series. Another example might be Samurai Warriors 3, but that genre was all over the PS3 right from the start, so SW3 was more of an anomaly.

That's really it.
 

Mario007

Member
Not really. PS3 received more high profile 3rd party games right from the start. The best example for your point is the Tales series. Another example might be Samurai Warriors 3, but that genre was all over the PS3 right from the start, so SW3 was more of an anomaly.

That's really it.
Oh really? Then I stand corrected, I kinda assumed that the Tales of and Mistwalker path was followed by many publishers in Japan.
 

Oregano

Member
Oh really? Then I stand corrected, I kinda assumed that the Tales of and Mistwalker path was followed by many publishers in Japan.

Mistwalker is a development studio, not a publishers. Their 360 games were published by Microsoft, their Wii game was published by Nintendo and their DS games were very low budget(not to mention one of them was published by Nintendo).

@schuelma: There's Star Ocean 4 as well I guess and maybe The Last Remnant. Infinite Undiscovery doesn't really count because MS owns the IP.
 
Oh really? Then I stand corrected, I kinda assumed that the Tales of and Mistwalker path was followed by many publishers in Japan.

You have to remember the PS3 was the successor to a 20m+ selling console, so it was natural for many Japanese publishers to bet on it. The price of course was a huge bottleneck for the first couple of years until Sony was able to turn it around along with the help of continued third party support.
 

schuelma

Wastes hours checking old Famitsu software data, but that's why we love him.
Using Persona 5 as a proof that Japan doesn't jump to PS4 fast is bit weird considering P4 was released in 2008.

Well, I mean just look at the launch lineup and announced games so far- it is pretty sparse in terms of Japanese development.

I'm sure things will pick up and we aren't going to see a Wii U or anything, but I do think the transition is going to be slow with PS3 and 3DS as kind of easy calls for a lot of Japanese targeted franchises.
 

Hitsukara

Neo Member
Prediction League December, 2013

Predict how much these titles will sell in the month (from Nov 25 to Dec 29):

[PSV] Hardware (35 days) - 260k
[3DS] Hardware (35 days) - 800k
[WIU] Hardware (35 days) - 180k
[WIU] Super Mario 3D World (35 days) - 340k
[3DS] Hatsune Miku Project Mirai 2 (32 days) - 170k
[PS3] Gran Turismo 6 (25 days) - 230k
[3DS] Inazuma Eleven Supernova / Big Bang (25 days) - 280k
[3DS] Puzzle & Dragons Z (18 days) - 900k
[PS3] Final Fantasy X / X-2 HD (4 days) - 130k
[PSV] Final Fantasy X / X-2 HD (4 days) - 60k
[3DS] Zelda: A Link Between Worlds (4 days) - 300k
 
Oh I agree with you, I just won't go to the mat over it prior to a system coming out.

Post release I'm likely to actively argue with people who say there are announcements that are being asked to be held back either formally or informally.

It's not 100% insane sounding to me if someone wanted to argue that a vendor went "It would be cool if you announced a game right before the system came out to generate more hype for launch.", even if I find it unlikely. I think it makes zero sense to make that argument at any point beyond that.

But yeah as of today my projection for the PS4 is that it will tank a few weeks post launch until at least Fall if not longer, depending on if publishers have forsaken it as much as they have seem to.
I think there are entirely plausible "Wait for..." statements, and others that are much less likely. I'm sure Sony themselves are holding back some announcements (Uncharted until recently, Santa Monica's game, The Last Guardian being moved), but I don't think that extends to third parties, who will announce things on their own schedule.

Yeh, I can see it tanking pretty quickly, given the lack of announced software.
Using Persona 5 as a proof that Japan doesn't jump to PS4 fast is bit weird considering P4 was released in 2008.
Persona is really just another example to point to.
 
T

thepotatoman

Unconfirmed Member
Well, I mean just look at the launch lineup and announced games so far- it is pretty sparse in terms of Japanese development.

I'm sure things will pick up and we aren't going to see a Wii U or anything, but I do think the transition is going to be slow with PS3 and 3DS as kind of easy calls for a lot of Japanese targeted franchises.

Yakuza and Knack at launch. Deep Down and MGS5 coming 2014. FF15 and KH3 coming 2015.

Then there's cross gen and other smaller stuff like Suda 51's Lily Bergamo, Earth Defense Force, Guilty Gear Xrd, Mobile Suit Gundum, Psyco Break, Natural Doctorine, and all that idol and dating game stuff.

It's not like the West saw an amazing launch and launch window lineup either, but PS4 still sold pretty well. I'm sure we'll see titles like Resident Evil and Tales Of and Shonen Jump games and more in the future.
 
Code:
[B][U]Comgnet Software Sales Rankings: Week 47, 2013 (Nov 18 - Nov 24)[/U][/B]

[b]01. [PS3] Lightning Returns: Final Fantasy XIII – 555pt[/b]
[b]02. [WIU] Super Mario 3D World – 164pt[/b]
03. [PSP] God Eater 2 – 95pt
[b]04. [3DS] One Piece: Unlimited World Red – 92pt[/b]
05. [PSV] God Eater 2 – 89pt
06. [PS3] Call of Duty: Ghosts (Subtitled Edition) – 86pt
07. [PS3] World Soccer Winning Eleven 2014 – 68pt
[b]08. [PS3] Monster Hunter Frontier G: Beginner's Package – 65pt[/b]
[b]09. [3DS] Aikatsu! 2-nin no My Princess – 52pt[/b]
10. [3DS] Monster Hunter 4 – 35pt
11. [3DS] Pokémon X – 34pt
12. [PS3] Batttlefield 4 – 33pt
13. [PS3] Grand Theft Auto V – 28pt
14. [3DS] Diagasso! Band Brothers P – 26pt
[b]15. [PS3] New Atelier Rorona: Hajimari no Monogatari - The Alchemist of Arland – 22pt[/b]
16. [3DS] Pokémon Y – 22pt
17. [PSP] World Soccer Winning Eleven 2014 – 18pt
18. [PSP] Jikkyou Powerful Pro Baseball 2013 – 18pt
[b]19. [WIU] Taiko no Tatsujin: Wii U Version! (standalone) – 16pt[/b]
[b]20. [PSV] New Atelier Rorona: Hajimari no Monogatari - The Alchemist of Arland – 15pt[/b]
[B]* New releases are in bold
* 1 pt = 1 sale
PS3 - 7
3DS - 6
PSP - 3
WIU - 2
PSV - 2[/B]

No Tsutaya yet, but I'll post it when it releases.
 

Sandfox

Member
Persona is not on Tales level yet.

Also, I really feel that Atlus has zero confidence in the Vita going by the SW they have released for it.

Yakuza and Knack at launch. Deep Down and MGS5 coming 2014. FF15 and KH3 coming 2015.

Then there's cross gen and other smaller stuff like Suda 51's Lily Bergamo, Earth Defense Force, Guilty Gear Xrd, Mobile Suit Gundum, Psyco Break, Natural Doctorine, and all that idol and dating game stuff.

It's not like the West saw an amazing launch and launch window lineup either, but PS4 still sold pretty well. I'm sure we'll see titles like Resident Evil and Tales Of and Shonen Jump games and more in the future.

MGSV and Yakuza are both cross gen.
 
Yakuza and Knack at launch. Deep Down and MGS5 coming 2014. FF15 and KH3 coming 2015.

Then there's cross gen and other smaller stuff like Suda 51's Lily Bergamo, Earth Defense Force, Guilty Gear Xrd, Mobile Suit Gundum, Psyco Break, Natural Doctorine, and all that idol and dating game stuff.

It's not like the West saw an amazing launch and launch window lineup either, but PS4 still sold pretty well. I'm sure we'll see titles like Resident Evil and Tales Of and Shonen Jump games and more in the future.

I hate to be that guy, but simillar posts could have been and probably were written about the Wii U tweleve months ago. Just by me, even.
 

Tripon

Member
I hate to be that guy, but simillar posts could have been and probably were written about the Wii U tweleve months ago. Just by me, even.

Seems to me that the PS3 was the poison pill the Japanese market swallowed whole heartedly and it really hurt the domestic market. It was so hard to program and make games for that it caused years long delay, and yet the Japanese market doesn't seem to want to let go of it.
 
Mario 3D ----------- 164pt (?)
Pikmin ------------- 144pt (92.720)
Wii Party ---------- 74pt (37.371)
Dragon Quest --- 35pt (33.302)
Zelda ---------------- 56pt (30.264)
Luigi ----------------- 33pt (24.881)
Wario --------------- 32pt (22.491)
Lego ----------------- 40pt (18.199)
 

Tripon

Member
Mario 3D ----------- 164pt (?)
Pikmin ------------- 144pt (92.720)
Wii Party ---------- 74pt (37.371)
Dragon Quest --- 35pt (33.302)
Zelda ---------------- 56pt (30.264)
Luigi ----------------- 33pt (24.881)
Wario --------------- 32pt (22.491)
Lego ----------------- 40pt (18.199)

Wasn't Mario only at 24 pt last week, or two weeks ago? A lot of late pre-orders?
 

Anth0ny

Member
Mario 3D ----------- 164pt (?)
Pikmin ------------- 144pt (92.720)
Wii Party ---------- 74pt (37.371)
Dragon Quest --- 35pt (33.302)
Zelda ---------------- 56pt (30.264)
Luigi ----------------- 33pt (24.881)
Wario --------------- 32pt (22.491)
Lego ----------------- 40pt (18.199)

oops nevermind wii u saved
 

NotLiquid

Member
Wasn't Mario only at 24 pt last week, or two weeks ago? A lot of late pre-orders?

Was 24 pt two weeks ago or so, jumped to 66 near launch I believe.

Managed to find Mpl90's post a couple of weeks back.

And now it's that time

Comgnet chain stores - Mario comparisons, as of yesterday

[WII] Super Mario Galaxy - 107pt
[WII] Super Mario Galaxy 2 - 149pt
[3DS] Super Mario 3D Land - 138pt
[3DS] Kid Icarus: Uprising - 50pt
[3DS] Luigi's Mansion 2 - 105pt
[WIIU] Pikmin 3 - 50pt
[WIIU] Super Mario 3D World - 24pt
 

Sandfox

Member
Mario 3D ----------- 164pt (?)
Pikmin ------------- 144pt (92.720)
Wii Party ---------- 74pt (37.371)
Dragon Quest --- 35pt (33.302)
Zelda ---------------- 56pt (30.264)
Luigi ----------------- 33pt (24.881)
Wario --------------- 32pt (22.491)
Lego ----------------- 40pt (18.199)

Was 24 pt two weeks ago or so, jumped to 66 near launch I believe.

Managed to find Mpl90's post a couple of weeks back.

That's kinda crazy.
 
Mario 3D ----------- 164pt (?)
Pikmin ------------- 144pt (92.720)
Wii Party ---------- 74pt (37.371)
Dragon Quest --- 35pt (33.302)
Zelda ---------------- 56pt (30.264)
Luigi ----------------- 33pt (24.881)
Wario --------------- 32pt (22.491)
Lego ----------------- 40pt (18.199)

So, it isn't unrealistic to expect something around 100k-150k for 3D World? This is way below my expectations.
 
Those are two completely different numbers, one is for pre-order (70pt, final) and the other is for first week sales (164pt).

It resets back to 0 when the game launches.
 
I thought it got to something like 55pt in pre-orders?

So if Comgnet is any indication [and ymmv] we're looking at "better than Pikmin, but not by that much"?
lol doubting Mario
Hmm, what doubts are currently being demolished? What are you expecting from it, out of curiosity?
 

Pie and Beans

Look for me on the local news, I'll be the guy arrested for trying to burn down a Nintendo exec's house.
lol doubting Mario

Any reason why the WiiU *won't* dominate Japan?

Whats your launch week prediction for that 3D Land ctrl-c, ctrl-v jobby anyway?

So if Comgnet is any indication [and ymmv] we're looking at "better than Pikmin, but not by that much"?Hmm, what doubts are currently being demolished? What are you expecting from it, out of curiosity?

If we were purely going by Comget to correlate totally, it'd look like 115-120k which would be pretty shit. I still think something more towards 160k since COMG COMG MY LADY aint everything, but well... not long now.
BUTTERFLY. SUGAR. ETC.
 

BlackJace

Member
I thought it got to something like 55pt in pre-orders?

So if Comgnet is any indication [and ymmv] we're looking at "better than Pikmin, but not by that much"?What are you expecting from it, out of curiosity?

I was actually kind of poking fun at Anthony's post. But judging from Comgnet, I guess it wouldn't be a stretch to say that it should be a good bit above Pikmin.
 
I thought it got to something like 55pt in pre-orders?

So if Comgnet is any indication [and ymmv] we're looking at "better than Pikmin, but not by that much"?

Look at the variation between pts and the reported numbers posted above. COMG is only sixteen stores in one prefecture, and is only as accurate as that.
 
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