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Media Create Sales: Week 51, 2015 (Dec 14 - Dec 20)
- Thread starter Chris1964
- Start date
Eolz
Member
Do you think he'll give info on Assassin's Creed: Stardust Crusader like that?
This one was leaked and cancelled years ago
Also regarding Ubisoft leaks, you don't even have to work on a project to get info about it.
I'm still not convinced we'll see PS-focused developers or IP include NX in their release plans going forward. Whilst we've seen a lot of them add PC SKUs that's always been for the western market and I'd say it's pretty clear that Sony doesn't mind financially supporting titles that are also on PC. A lot of them will probably think there isn't an audience on Nintendo systems for their games and won't even try to establish one.
Wait, what does 3DS have dated of the first half? DQM Joker 3?
DriftingSpirit
Member
The major releases for the PS4 this year were Dragon Quest Heroes, MGSV and...that is it, right? There were decent western titles like CoD and what not but yeah.
As such, how would the releases for next year be "similar to weaker" to that?
As such, how would the releases for next year be "similar to weaker" to that?
kuroneko0509
Member
Zelda Musou port, Mario&Sonic & SMT IV Final... i think there's few more notable release but can't remember all of them
Read better
I really haven't been paying attention to what's lined up but DQ Heroes might be bigger than anything in the first half of next year.
Oh yeah Zelda Musou could be big. I don't expect anything from Mario & Sonic and SMTIV Final will probably see the typical JRPG-sequel drop off.
Its their choice to do what they want. If the West/Asian market can support them (of which we've not exactly seen resounding successes) then they have no reason to change nor am I really suggesting they do it (I am speaking more of the major players in the market), but the majority of their sales are in Japan as of right now. If they can make due with what is left of the market, then all the more power to them.
But the market has moved on, and the Vita will sooner or later just not be much of a desirable product from a consumer point of view, and it already is struggling to stay relevant if not for Minecraft as the rest of its software is largely targeting an established group. If the Vita's ability to grow fades any harder then, even though it has an established sales target, those consumers will be but a fleeting dream with no "new blood". The PS3 is already moribund. Of course, we can never count out a complete revolution in the market from stuff like VR or perhaps some new "Splatoon"-like product hitting the market.
Fact of the matter is, the market in Japan is being held afloat on the shoulders of the 3DS. If that product leaves the market with no strong replacement, then there just won't be much of a market left. But I'd eat my hat if major Japanese publishers weren't there front and center early, though maybe not all as eager as SE on the home market. I think SE saw the writing on the wall with regards to the home market, I think that's why we heard so much of DQXI/DQX but not so much of anything like FF or the like which do not need to be home-aligned. (And DQB is a total miscalculation in my opinion.)
DriftingSpirit
Member
Whoop, missed first half.
I appreciate your usual snippy responses though.
I don't either. It would be nice if a list of some sort was compiled. I think the lower price will naturally aid whatever is coming though.
Psycho_Mantis
Banned
err what?
I included PS4 because I reckon they could have other products for PS4 and see the titles to be notable enough to include PS4 as a potential platform for focus.
So, you think that there is no game in development from any western software House?
I was the one you quoted saying western support will be shit but I dont know if there will be no game at all. So I would say that there could be few games but generally no real interest and that the lack of leaks could be indicative of that. Maybe because even the leaks you were talking about for next generati on systems were somehow part of their buzz building PR and marketing strategy.
The Last One
Member
We know for sure it's because of Namco though? Not that it makes any difference, but now I'd like to know.
I think there's minimal development to the point it's possible to keep a general lid on things.
If there are 20 games from Western publishers in development for the NX that's a very different different scenario than 200.
Like consider the difference here. By this time for the PS4/XB1, the vast majority of every major publisher's three year game horizon was actively in development for the systems. With the NX, it might be a couple of token games (Madden, NBA, UbiGame, etc) per publisher with no further plans unless the system pans out.
It would be pretty surprising if they had other PS4 titles in development.
While this is definitely true, I just can't be thinking of a scenario where NX, at launch, literally gets nothing from Western publishers (I'm talking about major publishers, not including indies). Again, at best I'm expecting a mediocre support right from the get go, with other support depending on first weeks both hardware and software sales.
Just to clarify: by "mediocre" support I mean several titles from Ubisoft, Activision and Warner Bros. (not just children-focused titles, but one-two of their core titles as well), both brand new games and late ports. Maybe (maybe - maybe - ) one-two titles from EA at launch and a Square Enix-Eidos side game. That's what I consider a mediocre support at launch from major Western publishers. So, my most optimistic prediction isn't that much to begin with, I'm expecting a bit less (no EA/Eidos, slightly titles from Activision/Ubisoft/Warner Bros.) seeing something a lot worse than that would be both surprising and depressing.
As Oregano noticed, we've yet to see a major hardware leak for NX, its physical appearance, while we had something for Wii U months before its first E3 showing (let's all remember Nintendo had two E3s where they showed Wii U). Also, John Harker already hinted at developers knowing about NX's hardware before E3 (while others at E3, as reported by Fortune). And, since next year 3DS turns 5 years old on February/March, I don't see a scenario where no NX at all is released in 2016 (by that, I mean that the handheld form factor should be out next year; I'm starting to expect both handheld and home form factors out next year, but let's stay cautious with predictions), thus I don't think a later-than-we-thought release explains the silence. I'm more on Vena's side on this: Nintendo is trying to control the message as much as possible. So far, we only had two official leaks about NX: DQX/XI from Square (literally read from the script during the event, then Square backtracked) and WSJ talking about SDK being distributed to developers (with the concurrent new Developer Page opening), and basically nothing else of that kind (just Tamaki's nebulous rumours or that thing from the Nintendo fansite, much more nebulous), unless we count several patents as leaks (but that's highly debatable).
Btw, here's the posts I was referring to in my former post
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=183098921&postcount=6312
So, it seems Nintendo is reinforcing their NDAs strategy overall, starting from the Development Page itself (completely renewed and now modern, and featuring some policy changes). Now, does this mean we can start the whole "Wii U announcements are NDA, just wait and see!!111!" craze all over again (recalled by Y2Kev in the current NPD thread too :lol )? No way, absolutely no. Expecting major Western support for NX, especially at launch, is foolish. Even expecting mediocrity is optimistic (again), but I think this new NDA policy is preventing titles / development from being leaked, and they could be particularly efficient because there's not that much on the pipeline (less people involved), or (as you mentioned) titles being developed by smaller, less-budgeted branches (the smaller the team, the lower the chances of leaks coming out).
MatrixMan.EXE
Member
Nothing about what Sony has been saying is dubious. It's been pretty clear what is exclusive and what isn't.
I do however, agree that the west does not and will not care for NX in the slightest, and I think that's the bigger problem here. A lot of the games Japanese publishers have been "throwing at PS4" aren't even out yet. FFXV, Persona 5, KH3 etc. While I don't expect any of them to remotely "save" console gaming in the country, I think those will be the true litmus test that will tell us how much the market can stabilise over there. If they fail to cause any sort of marginally successful uptick, then we can call said proliferation an outright failure.
Saying this already, with nothing notable outside of the likes of DQH and One Piece Pirate Warriors having released yet, it's impossible to call. What I do agree with you on however, is that it's likely that NX in it's portable form will take on Vita's position in the marketplace. Hell, you could even get a scenario where instead of MH5 for 3DS/Wii U like we got with 3G, we get MH5 for NX(portable)/PS4. Who knows. It'll be an interesting couple of years.
That said, remember when everyone assumed the Japanese publishers would flock to Wii U and that never happened? Part of me also doesn't see how NX will change any of that. At least not yet. Even if it has a handheld SKU.
Mmmh I agree on the minimal support, even if it is sad to see such minimal interest in a new dedicated game device.
I really hope that Japan will support the console and that Nintendo will both pursue this goal alongside a better management of its own developing efforts.
Btw these reasoning already picture a nightmarish future for NX in the west that will surely downtone even part of the possible Japanese developers.
And with vita probably not being substitute from Sony, this shows the cronical nintendo incompetence on the third party side of things...
Well I think what you miss is that for most publishers it will have little effect whether the NX is successful, they'll only support it if they need to. Publishers don't actually care about the overall health of the market. Square Enix talks big but the reason they care about the JP success of the PS4 is simply because AAA FF games are still their bread and butter and a third of their sales comes from Japan. They need a successful, powerful home console in Japan. Similarily you'll probably see Level 5 and Capcom talk NX up big because their biggest products are still dedicated handheld products and it's probably why SE was keen to announce Dragon Quest.
The question is whether the need will be there to support NX. I'd say recently it's been clear that devs/publishers have been trying to transition their audiences to PS4 and leaning heavier on the west. Once the PS3 and Vita have completely faded will the PS4 be able to absorb enough of the audience? I actually don't think it will but...
PC is the spanner in the works. Some people have pointed to PC to say that if NX is easy enough to port to and has enough of a market it will get titles but I see the opposite. If western sales on PC are enough to counteract whatever decline happens in Japan they won't see any need to support NX.
Also as I said it depends if they see any potential audience existing on NX. If they don't they'll see as just an added cost in a time when they need to be cutting costs to account for lower sales.
I went into this a bit more with the post above, but let's do it with math instead.
Let's say that for each game in development, there's a 99% chance that the developers will manage to keep the platform's information secret.
20 games:
1 - (99% chance of secrecy)^20 games = 18.2% chance the system leaks
200 games:
1 - (99% chance of secrecy)^200 games = 86.6% chance the system leaks
In this scenario I've been very generous toward the odds of each individual studio not leaking anything by ignoring all external factors, and you still get a hugely high chance of things leaking as it only takes one studio.
In reality, it only takes one *person*, so this would lead me to believe there's minimal support. This of course does not rule out there being any support, as lower numbers of titles actually have a reasonable chance of secrecy in this model.
I feel they were more so a byproduct of allowing a lot of developers on board early in the process, and thus knowingly accepting a high chance of their products leaking, in favor of having as many games as possible.
Now, for Nintendo, generating interest at the AAA level is likely quite difficult compared to the PS4 or XB1, but I imagine they could actually get a reasonable amount of indie support if they flooded to market with development kits. That would assuredly result in their product leaking early though.
NeonZ
Member
If the "NX" console is basically a boosted/expanded version of the portable - likely even bellow the PS4/XBox One in specs- It'd explain the earlier report about the devkits for both "units" being distributed together and why both are considered the "NX" in the first place.
In that scenario, considering the treatment that the 3ds receives from Western publishers, I could easily see the NX having very minimal Western support even for launch.
You make it sound as if the 3DS hasn't proven time and again that it can support titles westward. Heck, we have one on the first page at the moment. At which point I'd ask what level of brilliance would condemn the home market to chase a potential western market when the ability to tap both is seemingly possible? I'd sooner suggest that Japanese game developers sit on a tree and wait for Godot to deliver them from all their woes.
I can't imagine a world in which Capcom, Level-5, and others throw away their successes on handhelds at home and in the west in an attempt to... chase the west. If PC is easy to port to, just port the games from your handheld with the uncompressed HQ textures. Do you expect the NX handheld to be running on PPC or something? ARM compilation to and from x86 is an established work path.
Oh no, I expect the publishers supporting 3DS to support NX. I don't expect them to ditch it. I'm talking about developers not targeting the 3DS right now, I don't think (as a general rule) that they'll migrate over to NX.
EDIT: @Nirolak: It's worth noting that Shin'en may have implied they were aware of the 3DS successor but they're quite a close partner. It's not impossible that trusted indies like them have kits.
Sure, but I would expect that to be a list of like five developers.
Hardware is going to be at an all time low too this year (Media Create):
2002:
Total - 7.999.313
2003:
Total - 8.341.944
2004:
Total - 8,511,387
2005:
Total - 9.813.434
2006:
Total - 13.678.026
2007:
Total - 16,193,652
2008:
Total - 12,277,812
2009:
Total - 10,534,002
2010:
Total - 9,336,350
2011:
Total - 10,085,107
2012:
Total - 9,620,672
2013:
Total - 8,391,267
2014:
Total - 6.544.036
2015*:
Total - 5.176.242
*miss last two weeks.
Japanese dedicated gaming industry really need NX to be a hit.
Well, when I meant "literally nothing" from Western developers at launch, I was basically meaning something like 1-2 titles from one between Activision/Ubisoft/Warner Bros. as a whole, combined total. If by minimal, we mean "20 titles against 200" like Nirolak suggested as an example case, then...maybe we're almost on the same page after all? Maybe my actual expectation is slightly higher, but it's not that different after all.
Well there's quite lot of developers on the eShop nowadays and Frozenbyte managed to get a Wii U kit despite having never worked with Nintendo so I imagine that list could be somewhat extensive.
When we're talking about this sort of timing, I feel the "when exactly did they get it" part is kind of important as well though.
Like if in late January/early February, Nintendo announces in their fiscal call "Hey the NX is a handheld with one screen that has buttons sticking through it, hear more at E3." and then proceeds to hand out development kits at GDC to a bunch of indie developers, they've already announced the product on their terms and the risk is lowered notably.
brainchild
Banned
Can I get a link to this potential implication? This is the first time I've heard of it.
True. The majority indie developers probably wouldn't rush to get projects to it either. The Shin'en thing was in July and might not actually be a hint. I thought it meant they wanted to port the original FAST to the N3DS because the 3DS wasn't powerful enough.
I think this is easier for me to discuss in qualitative terms.
I expect the following titles to *NOT* be announced for NX:
-Battlefield 5
-Destiny 2
-Overwatch
-Mafia 3
-Dishonored 2
-Mass Effect: Andromeda
Whether there's a total of 20 games or 30 games between LEGO, Call of Duty, Skylanders, Disney Infinity, Assassin's Creed, Just Dance, Gameloft, FIFA, and a variety of indie titles is less important in the conceptual range of what I feel a lack of leaks suggests, which is that there hasn't been a paradigm change in the amount of Western third party support they've achieved.
To contrast this with Japan, I think it's entirely possible that every publisher has at least one game on board and we'd get zero leaks out of them because there's no real outlet from which the leaks would flow with an assertion of legitimacy.
This is about what I'm expecting.
Oh. I wasn't really talking about them... >.< I was speaking of the major publishers who are already on the 3DS, and them going forward.
Looks that way. 3DS will be down. (Optimistically) Cancelled out by PS4 being up. Wii U down. Vita Down. Xbox won't even qualify as a rounding error. NX has to hit hard to reverse the overall trend.
ArkhamFantasy
Member
Im afraid its just going to divide the audiences. For instance, instead of PS4 selling 50k a week, the PS4 will sell 25k a week and the NX will sell 25k a week. That wouldnt accomplish anything, it would just make developers jobs harder because they have to make games for 2 systems that will likely be completely different in every possible way.
Nintendo doesnt just need to make a successful console, they need to bring in a new audience like they did with the Wii. (if they want to help the dedicated market in Japan). Both Sony and Nintendo have their work cut out for them, those stats are a disturbing trend.
Oh, I thought it was implied when you were talking about the fails to get PS4 really going(although it's a bit early to say that) and how western orientated games might be on NX too.
brainchild
Banned
The absence of evidence is not evidence of absence.
There are too many unknown variables at work and there is no absolute law that any western support must leak, so I don't find your argument to be particularly compelling. In fact, I find it incredibly tenuous.
I suppose if you're just asserting your opinion merely as reasonable doubt, I don't have a problem with it, but if you're presenting your case as some kind of evidence for the NX lacking major 3rd party western support, I just can't take it seriously.
Time and time again, history has proven that just because Nintendo has no leaks, it doesn't mean that there isn't something brewing. The latest example being that people didn't believe a Nintendo Direct would be broadcast this quarter because there wouldn't be anything to talk about (because if there was, surely we'd have known about it by now).
Personally, I don't think it's prudent to make assumptions primarily based on what you don't see coming, but that's just me.
I'm more comfortable with saying that there doesn't appear to be any evidence to support that the NX will have major 3rd party western support than saying that it isn't likely to get the support. The former is simply stating reality, the latter is unsubstantiated speculation.
Wii U is up this year.
Praise Splatoon.
EDIT:
Unless you were talking about next year.
I think a triple combo of FFXV, Persona 5, and DQXI would be a better bet for hardware sales bump.
You may feel free to bookmark my posts and call me out on them later if you feel my argumentation is insufficient. This isn't a science paper in a peer reviewed journal, it's market prediction on a video game forum.
No Smoke -> No Fire has been very successful for me over the years for this specific type of situation and I'm going to stick with it.
"Nintendo deciding on the timing of their internally recorded direct-to-consumer marketing" is not a comparable scenario.
Edit: To be clear you can call me out *now* as well, but I mean I won't at all be offended if you bring this up 30 threads from now as well.
Do think they'll boost the market to the level it was even two or three years ago?
Probably not, but I think next year will be better than the last couple have been. Especially with PS4 being a lower price at the start as well.
Moor-Angol
Banned
No, I was talking about both sw & hw
And the chart I posted includes 2005 and 2006 and 2011, sony had 3 systems in 2006 (PS2, PS3 and PSP) and even in 2011 cause PS2 was still alive.
If you remember PSP and PS2 selling very well you remember wrong cause numbers prove that N always sold better than S in every Xmas week, considering the worst year for N is still better than the best year for S, even GBA sold better than PS2 cause winter holidays is a period of time in which the nintendo audience buys more sw than the sony one.
Numbers, not opinions.
iirc 2/3 of Nintendo yearly profits are made during Q4, this means something, doesn't it ?
Nintendo should be working hard to get Overwatch for NX, but alas, that's not happening.
Even the last couple would suggest it can make up for PS3, 3DS, Vita and Wii U declines. I think it's pretty unlikely.
Moor-Angol
Banned
with the launch of a new system (NX), the consolidation of another one (PS4) and PSVR, which probably is still underestimated here, I don't see how 2016 numbers could be equal or lower than 2015...