-
Hey, guest user. Hope you're enjoying NeoGAF! Have you considered registering for an account? Come join us and add your take to the daily discourse.
Media Create Sales: Week 51, 2015 (Dec 14 - Dec 20)
- Thread starter Chris1964
- Start date
They're having a DQ event on the 13th so it could get announced/shown there.
FFXV could still beat it. Or FFXVI I guess. I could be quite the close call though.
If there was real multiplayer they would have shown it off a long time ago. No one waits until 2 weeks before release to talk about a major feature. At this point it's safe to say that outside of the world sharing stuff, if there is any multiplayer it will either be a post-launch addition, or it will be something completely unsubstantial.
Pennywise83
Banned
Is Wii U still hard to find in Japanese stores?
Yeah, you're probably right. It seems like a very stupid omission then. SE might be completely botching the execution.
Shiro Premium Set is selling a lot better than Mario Maker Set since Splatoon has gone and it's the cheapest option. Some stores like HMV had it on the top of their daily list. Rakuten is warning about not having Mario Maker Bundle, and so on. However, sales now are not that high as they were at the beginning of the week.
Pennywise83
Banned
Thanks. I wonder if this might propel some sales in 2016.
DQ XI (PS4) should beat both by miles
I'm not so sure. People might be satisfied with the 3DS version and the NX version is a big question mark. FFXV is defacto PS4 exclusive.
FF XV is the only one that could do it. FF VII being episodic hurt its chances IMO and I don't think we'll see FF XVI in this generation.
By miles? With a 3DS version? Not a chance
Eolz
Member
No. What Oregano said is the likeliest scenario. The 3DS version will be the best selling version (maybe 2x), and it depends when the NX version is released (no impact six months later for example).
I doubt the PS4 version will sell more than 1.3M in Japan, whereas it could (will?) happen for Splatoon for example. FFXV is the one to watch.
ZSaberLink
Media Create Maven
Activision wasn't too bad. Wasn't CoD Black Ops 2 one of the few titles that had co-op with 1 player on GamePad and 1 player on the TV? I presume that's partly why that small Wii U online community still remains.
I actually don't think the PS4 will pass this number next year sadly. I think people are forgetting how much the industry has contracted since then... I'd be glad to be wrong though.
The fact that the 3DS versions looks very polished, consists of 2D and 3D version, might release earlier etc. It will be tough for the console versions to sell nearly as much now. Smash Bros. 3DS gutted the WiiU version in Japan... Not the same game but still Smash Bros. was the strongest "traditional" Nintendo IP for homeconsole the last couple gens. Ninokuni might be a more fitting example even tough the DS version wasn't received nearly as well as DQXI likely will be
+3m for the 3DS version and 0.5-1m for the console versions seem realistic at this point.
+3m for the 3DS version and 0.5-1m for the console versions seem realistic at this point.
Go_Ly_Dow
Member
I suppose we'll see!
I'm fairly optimistic it can, but understand why others may have more reserved estimates.
Expecting sales to plummet from Jan to early Feb and then gradually rise through Spring.
Moor-Angol
Banned
I totally agree with you but I just would like to point out that japanese spent two hours on train even 15 years ago while PS2 was dominating the market, and it was a home console.
Of course playing "outside" is still the most used way, the problem is that it's shifted from handhelds to mobiles, just compare what people did on train during 2006-2009 and what they are doing now: you just see iphone and galaxy and some xperia
and when you see a junior high school kid with an iphone 6 instead of a 3DS you realize that things are really changed
I remember 20 years ago when the industry tried the VR, but only now with the actual hardware they have the power to recreate a world as it is expected when we are talking about "virtual reality"; that's the reason I believe that actually VR can get some interests, as I said I think that some kind of games can be "improved" by VR, while others like FPS or action can't be played well with a headset.
At least at the end of next year we'll have something "new", considering it's not only sony focusing on VR; and to be honest I think that regarding VR the best experience will be made by PC which are more more powerful than PS4, but I feel that PC-VR will be more successful in the west while in Japan it will be more focused on PSVR cause PC gaming is not so much popular
It's from a single store, but those sellthroughs are as accurate as the blog we get the official sellthroughs.
Cool, thanks.
Pennywise83
Banned
It will be really interesting to see how DQXI will perform on both platforms. This will all depend on when and how it launches. Square Enix announced DQXI as a 2016 game - the first half of the year is packed with DQ games so it seems likely DQXI will be a Q3 or Q4 game.
If the game will be released simultaneously on both 3DS and PS4, the latter would be damaged because overshadowed by the version on the most popular platform (which should still be quite alive in late-2016). That's why Square Enix would be better of, in my opinion, in launching the game on 3DS in 2016 and on PS4 in 2017, in order to exploit the two platforms the most - also considering that PS4 had the whole year to build up a jRPG fanbase. In 2017, the game can launch on both PS4 and NX.
When the game was announced, it was clear that the 3DS version was quite far in the development, unlike the PS4 version, for which little was shown.
If the game will be released simultaneously on both 3DS and PS4, the latter would be damaged because overshadowed by the version on the most popular platform (which should still be quite alive in late-2016). That's why Square Enix would be better of, in my opinion, in launching the game on 3DS in 2016 and on PS4 in 2017, in order to exploit the two platforms the most - also considering that PS4 had the whole year to build up a jRPG fanbase. In 2017, the game can launch on both PS4 and NX.
When the game was announced, it was clear that the 3DS version was quite far in the development, unlike the PS4 version, for which little was shown.
Eolz
Member
At least 10k? Yeah, it's not W101 or codename steam.
twothunder
Member
Ōkami;190540155 said:
Can't say I'm surprised but still. Ouch.
Another FE game for Splatoon to consume, I guess
I believe the original stated plan was trying for a simultaneous 3DS/PS4 launch but I'm starting to think that might not happen since the 3DS version appeared much farther along and I can't see them holding it back too long for the PS4 version. I'm really expecting a summer launch to capitalize on the anniversary too, falling back too late in the year probably bumps up against FFXV and there's no way SE will launch these games close to each other.
I could see a scenario where 3DS DQXI launches summer 2016 with PS4 coming even as late as spring 2017, depending on where exactly FFXV lands (Fall 2016? Holiday 2016?). Or if the Amazon date is right maybe FFXV is summer and both versions of DQXI get pushed to 2H 2016? If the PS4 version comes late enough (2017) maybe we also see a scenario where the NX port launches alongside it instead too? Lots of possibilities here.
Given the sellthrough and keeping in mind the fact that it is already Monday in Japan, it surely has already sold 10k units. What matters now is if it could reach that 30k prediction. Btw, Gundam sales are keeping steady since it was 60% off.
I'm not seeing it coming either. Home consoles as a mainstream medium are essentially dead in Japan. PS3's late growth imo was mainly on the back of a big Wii gaming audience looking for new games that never arrived to that platform so they moved on. Now the overall console audience diminished to around Dreamcast levels and none of the existing platform holders put serious effort into increasing it again.
Pancake Mix
Copied someone else's pancake recipe
Better than this, maybe. However, it's no Code Name S.T.E.A.M.
However, I like how Nintendo always tries with core offerings on their home console going back to the N64 so I was rooting for more.
If the 3DS version launches 6+ months before the PS4 version wouldn't that damage sales for the PS4 version significantly since the casual (and a lot of hardcore) DQ fans will have already experienced the game's story/world and not feel the need to buy it again (even if each version is very different outside of the story)? If that would be the case then maybe it makes more sense to hold back the 3DS version until close to the PS4 version's launch.sörine;190543400 said:
But if the 3DS version is much farther along then they will probably release it first.
Pennywise83
Banned
Time is limited, and if both versions are launched simultaneously people will have to choose which one to pick. A late release would, instead, increase the proportion of double-dippers, especially if the two games are differentiated enough. Also, launching on 3DS in 2017 might not maximize the platform's potential unline a 2016 release. 2016 would maximize 3DS sales and 2017 would maximize PS4 sales.
theprodigy
Member
lol wut the game won't tank that badly...I think
uh, can't someone just check the eshop charts for that? I wouldn't hold my breath though
If its the digital sales that are going to "Save" the game, #fe is in a tight spot. It never got on the top of the charts and its been selling for a month already.
Still, as much as i dislike the comparison with the usual otaku games, this one will probably sell better than most. Its not like those are good sellers anyway.
Still, as much as i dislike the comparison with the usual otaku games, this one will probably sell better than most. Its not like those are good sellers anyway.
https://www.nintendo.co.jp/wiiu/software/ranking.html
Doesn't seem like it's been updated recently but #FE is at #15, below Fast Racing Neo.
Rakuten positions are way sadder.
Bundle is at #87, Fortissimo Edition is at #106 (below Captain Toad) and standard SKU is at #142 (below Angelique Retour on PSP).
That's the daily, but still.
Doesn't seem like it's been updated recently but #FE is at #15, below Fast Racing Neo.
Rakuten positions are way sadder.
Bundle is at #87, Fortissimo Edition is at #106 (below Captain Toad) and standard SKU is at #142 (below Angelique Retour on PSP).
That's the daily, but still.
Potentially yes, but it's hard to see much justification in holding back the 3DS version for the PS4 version's benefit. I do feel like a simultaneous launch is PS4's best bet for it's own sales though, Smash and Ni No Kuni show that even a much improved later release (essentially remakes really) doesn't necessarily help sales.
Of course spring/summer for 3DS is already looking pretty hotly contested with MH Stories and Yokai Watch 3, and perhaps also for SE with FFXV, so maybe me pegging a desired summer DQXI launch is off too.
I have to disagree here, direct choice does nothing but benefit the PS4 version. If it launches later there's still a choice, but it's to wait. A strategy that relies on double dipping on different platforms seems like a faulty one given how Ni No Kuni or Smash went. I agree 2016 launch for DQXI is a must though and I'm not sure PS4 DQXI will manage it. But it's not in question that it would be better for that version if it did imo.
And potentially worse for PS4 DQXI, a later launch means it may be bumping up closer to the fabled NX port. In that scenario not only would this version be faced with the choice of consumers to wait or rely on double dippers, but there might be an additional choice versus a theoretical UE4 conversion to a new Nintendo handheld. This sort of outcome would pretty much destroy the PS4 version's sales potential.
ohyouagain
Member
Somebody's gonna be in foul mood. No way MS can sell its first shipment if it drops that hard on week 2.
Hero of Legend
Member
3rd week.
Week 51 and 52 (next week's):
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=190247366&postcount=169
I'm playing devil's advocate, but the justification for Square to hold back the 3ds version would be to increase ps4 hardware sales. DQXI isn't releasing in a vacuum, and Square may want to have as large an audience as possible on ps4 for their future releases such as KH3 and unannounced projects. There is little cost to delaying the 3ds version as well because Dragon Quest is such a huge franchise that it could release in 2017 on the 3ds and still sell 4-5 million.sörine;190548365 said:
Pennywise83
Banned
sörine;190548365 said:
Smash was the same exact game on a platform Wii U owner likely already owned - also, it didn't do bad in Japan at all. Ni no Kuni's problem was more the game itself instead of how it was released. These two issues don't exist with DQXI because the two versions seem quite differentiated with each other and there might be a small overlap 3DS-PS4 with respect to 3DS-Wii U; also, DQ is a too big name to fail in generating interest among players - DQXI will also be the first home console entry since 2004.
I had the same thought, Square might see it as highly beneficial to push the PS4 version (perhaps even first before 3DS though extremely unlikely) to increase the install base of PS4 for their future games like FFVIIR and KH3. But as has been said at most it will be a simultaneous launch or 3DS first then PS4 later.
With this shipment and sellthrough Monster Strike will need at least a 200k second week.
1*: [3DS] Puzzle & Dragons Z <RPG> (GungHo Online Entertainment) {2013.12.12} (¥4.400) - 543.630 / 1.504.068 <79,02%>
2*: [3DS] Monster Strike <RPG> (Mixi) {2015.12.17} (¥4.860) - 437.903 / 437.903 <46,26%>
1*: [3DS] Puzzle & Dragons Z <RPG> (GungHo Online Entertainment) {2013.12.12} (¥4.400) - 543.630 / 1.504.068 <79,02%>
2*: [3DS] Monster Strike <RPG> (Mixi) {2015.12.17} (¥4.860) - 437.903 / 437.903 <46,26%>
Code:
+--+----------+----------+----------+----------+
| | MCreate | MCreate | MCreate | MCreate |
| | 1* | 1* | 2* | 2* |
|Wk|2013.12.12|2013.12.12|2015.12.17|2015.12.17|
| | to | to | to | to |
| |2014.04.27|2014.04.27|2016.05.01|2016.05.01|
+--+----------+----------+----------+----------+
| 1| 543.630| 543.630| 437.903| 437.903|
| 2| 256.373| 800.003| | |
| 3| 205.654| 1.005.658| | |
| 4| 157.883| 1.163.541| | |
| 5| 52.880| 1.216.421| | |
| 6| 48.788| 1.265.209| | |
| 7| 35.568| 1.300.778| | |
| 8| 26.125| 1.326.903| | |
| 9| 16.876| 1.343.779| | |
|10| 15.462| 1.359.241| | |
|11| 15.092| 1.374.333| | |
|12| 14.479| 1.388.812| | |
|13| 10.508| 1.399.320| | |
|14| 7.755| 1.407.075| | |
|15| | | | |
|16| | | | |
|17| 6.787| 1.430.720| | |
|18| 4.466| 1.435.186| | |
|19| 4.115| 1.439.301| | |
|20| | | | |
+--+----------+----------+----------+----------+Eolz
Member
Eh. They don't have to care that much about the PS4 since it's not an exclusive. FFVIIR and KH3 will sell more in the west, and won't even be exclusive in this region.
They tried to push PS4 hardware in Japan already from the start, but there's no real reason to do it only for DQXI when it'll sell well anyway, and they're betting on cumulative sales.
I really don't see S-E doing that just for the PS4 when they have a multiplatform, multi exclusives, strategy. Money is more important for them now that the PS4 is a confirmed success in the west, isn't doing so bad in Japan, and 3DS users will buy DQ.
Square does have to care how the ps4 is doing even if their games are multi platform. Obviously they want all the platforms they put their games on to be doing well, and they have the ability to build an audience for those games. Their "multiplatform, multi exclusives," strategy is really only two systems at most for most of their games anyway and the commonality between them all is that almost all of them are coming to ps4.
My point was that they may lose a small amount of sales by delaying the 3ds version to launch at the same time as the ps4, but they will gain more buyers for their other games that won't be coming out on 3ds.