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My Fanboy market analysis of HD consoles... and then some
- Thread starter MikeB
- Start date
- Status
The Innocent X
Banned
DCharlie said:
DCharlie.. I think I love you.
OLD SCHOOL
Shake Appeal
Member
Wowowowowowow.
Take a statistics class/take off your blinders.
Take a statistics class/take off your blinders.
Sir Fragula said:
Just for fun, in 2006 I asked people if they thought the PS3 or 360 would come out on top for christmas 2007, while stating I believed the PS3 would outsell the 360. So one year in advance, some 360 fanboys were upset with the idea but in general the silent majority voted correctly for the PS3. (about 3 to 1)
In January 2007, I asked people if they thought the PS3 will do much better in Europe than the consolde would do in North America and Japan for its first year on the market. Myself stating Some 360 fanboys stated it certainly wouldn't do any better. But again silent majority of voters voted correctly that the PS3 would do much better. (about 60 : 40)
This was before joining NeoGAF.
It's kinda a hobby, trying to construct insightful outlooks and coming up with arguments which may well go against the believes of a majority of hardcore vocals, but turn out to be pretty accurate.
I love statistics and I love talking about ahead of its time technology. I combine the the two with threads like these.
DCharlie
And even i am moderately surprised
i was a huge therapy? fan circa babyteeh/pleasure death
I felt they dropped off after nurse.
thread hijack slightly, but the lyrics to Accelerator
"You son of a bitch, you've got no friends
You've got no steady job, you've got no girlfriend
You say I'm cheap, you're just like me
The answer to the question, put to you by me
I'm the driver
I'm in control"
i was watching a late night film one night , black and white, and this is actually an exchange between two people... any idea which film?
i was quite shocked!
huh?!
the Ps3 outsold the X360 in Xmas 2007?
where?!? globally?!
maybe i missed it....
Shake Appeal
Member
A majority of silent minority, huh?
Every second line every one of your posts is open to question. I was scratching my head by the time I reached the end of the OP.
Please stop, you are bad, and bad at this.
Every second line every one of your posts is open to question. I was scratching my head by the time I reached the end of the OP.
Please stop, you are bad, and bad at this.
Shake Appeal
Member
This is amazing.itxaka said:
OP please consider this well-made point in depth when making future 'updates'.
itxaka said:
I anticipate a nice boost widening the gap for Europe/Japan and putting the PS3 ahead of the 360 for North America as well.
However like I stated years ago, the PS3 will not really take off in Japan until a slimline PS3 and the release of Final Fantasy. Seperate both should see a very big boost for the platform, but combined is a formula for true success.
For Noth America I anticipate the PS3 to solidly beat the 360's performance once the 360 moves well beyond the original XBox' install base (about 6-8 million sales to go to reach this point).
MikeB said:
ok. Tagged for june NPD and Media-create.
So, NA above the 360 (all months to come? one month?)
Japan, small boost (15k instead of 8-10k per week? during how many weeks? 10? 1?)
Your anticipations are so wide and unconcise that you are saying nothing. If it gives a 1week bump (and that is normal) you win, if it gives 12weeks bump you win.
Be concise, stop playing games.
proposition
Banned
I'm not an economist but doesn't this basically run completely counter-intuitive to one of the basic principles of Capitalism, that supply moves to meet demand and not vice-versa?Evander said:
Kafel said:
Well a Blu-Ray player takes up space underneath the telly as well, a PS3 would be two devices in one (but I was more referring to compact and efficeint devices in general).
Both Wii and PS3 are good family products, I don't think many Japanese kids will own more than 1 'current gen' console, but that's IMO OK as the bulk of PS3 content will be far less targeted at kids specifically (for example big games like Resident Evil 5, Final Fantasy, Metal Gear Solid, etc).
MikeB said:
I don't know where you are getting global sales numbers from, I assume from banned site (since you're an active member over there), where PS3 sales are around 95 thousand more than 360 sales globally for December 2007, a statistically negligible difference (aka "even").
Congratulations to both you and the "majority of silent minority" on correctly predicting that the PS3 would barely outsell the 360 globally over Christmas 2007. Did you look into the future and see that Sony would be releasing a cheaper 40 GB console in Europe in October 2007, and in North America and Japan in November 2007?
Of course, the Wii outsold both by like 2 MILLION over December 2007. The sales difference between the Wii and PS3 was 20 TIMES the difference between the PS3 and 360. Yet you're not using those sales numbers to hype up the Wii for some reason...
.
DCharlie
And even i am moderately surprised
bluray is already dead in Japan. It needs to be completely relaunched.
I don't expect it to take off here any time soon and i expect demand for players to be absorbed by people who buy recorder/hdd recorder combos.
like i said previously - nothing says disaster about to happen than crushing both your competitors combined. How can Nintendo continue to ignore these obvious warning signs? surely the 800k US sales this month (when X360 and PS3 both managed a staggering 160k or so) should definitely have them looking over their shoulder at the ever shortening gap. HD is coming to get them - and the pace of their ascent is increasing! :O
The Wii Balance Board has outsold the PS3 in Japan.MikeB said:
The PS3 has gotten four installments in franchises that were million sellers on PS2. (2x Dynasty Warriors, Winning Eleven, Hot Shots Golf.)MikeB said:
As much as you try to dodge it, the obvious reason for Monster Hunter moving is that PS3 is colossal failure that's tracking behind both Gamecube and Saturn. PS2 is also dying in Japan much faster than elsewhere, so no, your suggestion wouldn't make sense at all.MikeB said:
Flakster99
Member
TomServo said:
Now now, don't bring Pachter into this.
manueldelalas
Time Traveler
TomServo said:
Maybe he works for CNET...
TomServo said:
MikeB is not Pachter, and he is willing to post pictures of himself, his underage sister, and girlfriend to prove it.
Jaded Alyx
Member
TomServo said:
What's the difference?
I think this thread should be re-titled "MikeB's Last Stand" and some permaban bets introduced over MGS4's impact on console sales in the 3 territories.
With all the effort you put into these threads and your own special interpretation of the data, it's really time to put your money where your mouth is ...
With all the effort you put into these threads and your own special interpretation of the data, it's really time to put your money where your mouth is ...
wat, are you living in a cave or somethingDCharlie said:
Blu-ray Accounts for Half of Japan April DVD/HDD Recorder Sales
http://techon.nikkeibp.co.jp/english/NEWS_EN/20080522/152137/
DVD will be dead at the end of 2009 in Japan.
xbhaskarx said:
No, their figures are slightly off with regard to North America and PAL regions (Japan data seems to be mostly based on Famitsu's data). It's a little more to the advantage of the PS3. For example NPD's figures for December were better for the PS3 vs 360, than their data. Just look it up and compare.
In any case 360 fanboys ridiculed the idea of a remote possibility that the PS3 would be able to outsell the 360, afterall Halo 3 woud be launched a week ahead of 2007's final quarter and so would trounce the competition.
2007 sales data from Sony and Microsoft are pretty clear:
Microsoft sold 4.3 million 360s worldwide in the last quarter of 2007, making it 7.3 million in total.
Sony sold 4.9 million PS3 worldwide in the last quarter of 2007, totalling 8.83 million for the year.
proposition
Banned
Come on guys, you're talking to a guy who just likened his predictions of PS3's outselling the 360 to the abandonment of the flat Earth concept. He must be a joke poster. There's no way something that dumb came from a serious post.
MikeB said:
Right, and then in mid-October Europe, Australia, the Middle East, and Africa got the cheaper 40 GB. And then towards the end of October the 80 GB got a price drop. And then in early November the 40 GB was launched in North America. And then in mid-November the 40 GB was released in Japan.
You saw all of this coming in 2006, and correctly predicted that the PS3 would
barely (by ~95k)
Edit: And if the PS3 can keep catching up at the pace from when it got a cheaper model in every major region of the world, gaining 100k per month it would pass the 360 in a mere 63 months, or 5 1/4 years.
xbhaskarx said:
It was far more than 100K, just as the rate at which retailers bought new units also suggest. And yes, I believed the PS3 would get a pricecut. I brought this forward as one of the factors.
I argued with people if the 40GB PS3 would have the desired effect or not, according to 360 fanboys it wouldn't. Afterall the 40GB PS3 isn't backwards compatible with PS2 software, like the earlier units were and some features were removed.
I am not saying I can accurately predict everything, for instance I thought it would take a little longer before the Blu-Ray vs HD DVD format war would be over. But I was correct with the prediction Blu-Ray would win this format war without any reasonable doubt.
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