Support NeoGAF

[MikeB]

Seriously? After the past year and a half of "wait for..." as a line of reasoning behind some proposed magical bump in PS3 sales you're still using the "wait for..." list?

Didn't last month's NPD teach you anything? There are two, maybe three games in that list that have a decent shot at significantly bumping hardware sales, and even then only for one or two months.

I really think it's not about just 1 game released during a specific period, if you look at console sales. I think it's a combination of many different factors including pricing. For example having a handful of good games in a specific gerne would be more powerful than having each game released seperately, being the only game in its gerne at that point of time. For example there are many good shooters on the 360, this has created a userbase amongst which future high profile shooters will sell very well. For the Wii I would imagine future waggle controlled party games will perform relatively well.

 

[mentalfloss]

PS3 will not catch up to 360 in sales in America or world wide.

 

[ymmv]

It could be Microsoft oversupplied retalers with 360s to get a nice round 19.0 million PR figure for their latest report. This may well be the case here in Europe judging from what I have seen. PS3 pallets at my local Media Market store reduce much faster and are quicker refreshed with new supply.

This is indeed anecdotal evidence but it coincides with what I'm seeing at the local Media Markt in Amsterdam. They're really lousy at keeping items in stock. The Wii and DS are the fastest sellers, but the PSP and PS3 also sell out regularly. On the other hand, you can depend on them for keepin 360s in stock. This morning everything except the 360 was sold out. No Wii, DS, PSP, PS2 and PS3 to be found, but nevertheless they still had a couple of dozen Xbox 360 boxes on the shelves.

 

[itxaka]

This is indeed anecdotal evidence but it coincides with what I'm seeing at the local Media Markt in Amsterdam. They're really lousy at keeping items in stock. The Wii and DS are the fastest sellers, but the PSP and PS3 also sell out regularly. On the other hand, you can depend on them for keepin 360s in stock. This morning everything except the 360 was sold out. No Wii, DS, PSP, PS2 and PS3 to be found, but nevertheless they still had a couple of dozen Xbox 360 boxes on the shelves.

In my local store, nobody buyz the pslz3 and they sellz the 360 at one per minute. This contradicts your evidence. 360 is winninz.

Anecdotal evidence is stupid and has nothing to do in here. Well, maybe for MikecrazyB it does.

 

[MikeB]

In my local store, nobody buyz the pslz3 and they sellz the 360 at one per minute. This contradicts your evidence. 360 is winninz.

Anecdotal evidence is stupid and has nothing to do in here. Well, maybe for MikecrazyB it does.

Which store (smaller stores may put their marketing focuss elsewhere) and where (the 360 performs well in the US, but currently only still on par with the PS3)? Media Markt is a very important console selling store over here.

 

[FFChris]

PS3 will not catch up to 360 in sales in America or world wide.

Maybe not in America, but it will do world wide.

 

[mentalfloss]

Maybe not in America, but it will do world wide.

Set a date for this crow bet.

 

[slider]

Set a date for this crow bet.

Ooh, interesting.

Is there another Bossman in the making?

 

[itxaka]

Which store (smaller stores may put their marketing focuss elsewhere) and where (the 360 performs well in the US, but currently only still on par with the PS3)? Media Markt is a very important console selling store over here.

is called the 360 hut and they heavely promote the ps3. It´s based on imaginationland

 

[Paracelsus]

Set a date for this crow bet.

I don't think you want to bet on this, I really do not. Keep your bet safe on America, do not push your luck with the "worldwide" part. :/

 

[[Nintex]]

Which store (smaller stores may put their marketing focuss elsewhere) and where (the 360 performs well in the US, but currently only still on par with the PS3)? Media Markt is a very important console selling store over here.

Now I understand your line of thinking. Yes the PS3 is more succesfull in Europe, but it's still tracking behind the Wii and the European market is too small to make up for the lackluster Japanese and US sales. A couple hundred a week at best in the Netherlands isn't going to change the current situation. So although the PS3 might seem like a succesfull system were you live(I'm guessing Germany, Belgium or Netherlands) it isn't in the bigger markets.

 

[jarrod]

I don't think you want to bet on this, I really do not. Keep your bet safe on America, do not push your luck with the "worldwide" part. :/

Unless HD gaming grows dramatically in Europe, there honestly isn't much risk.

360 NA = PS3 WW

 

[FightyF]

*LOL* at title change.
:lol

*LOL*

:lol

 

[Tobor]

Which store (smaller stores may put their marketing focuss elsewhere) and where (the 360 performs well in the US, but currently only still on par with the PS3)? Media Markt is a very important console selling store over here.

The 360 has a 6 million unit userbase lead and is currently ahead in new unit sales. How you could consider that "on par" is beyond me.

 

[MikeB]

360 NA = PS3 WW

With regard to the original PSX that wasn't even the case back then, North America accounted for less than 40% of the worldwide Playstation console market. With regard to the XBox as well as the for the 360, North America is a bigger market than the rest of the world combined. So nothing has changed in that regard, the 360 still has about 6 million more unit sales to go to reach former US XBox install base levels.

During the PS3's lifecycle, some asian and east European countries will likely improve their relative position somewhat.

 

[Pureauthor]

During the PS3's lifecycle, some asian and east European countries will likely improve their relative position somewhat.

What, all of 500K extra consoles to throw into the fray? You do realize that most of us Asians focus on the PC over consoles?

 

[DCharlie]

Here's one for everyone to ponder.

when Sony switched accounting from units shipped out of factory to actual unit sales...

.... didn't they make the assumption in their figures that the SHIPPED units had sold through?

Now, don't know about everywhere else, but there's been a whole shed load of PS3s available in Japan since after the first month of launch.

wouldn't this imply that the sony assumption is that at the start of Q1 2007, all shipped units were sold? Isn't that... not the case?

did they in effect double count units ?

it might explain that, despite having 13 million units on the market, there's a huge lag in software sales?

You do realize that most of us Asians focus on the PC over consoles?

hmm not sure about that.
Jonnyram sent me a list of PC games with some numbers next to it.

I saw COD4 : 2890 - i was like "awesome, i'll give it a try at 2980 yen"- unfortunately, that was the monthly sales....

 

[Paracelsus]

The 360 has a 6 million unit userbase lead and is currently ahead in new unit sales.

5 millions. Greenberg (IIRC) said that while randomly commenting GTAIV.

Unless HD gaming grows dramatically in Europe, there honestly isn't much risk.

Yeah, but we do not know if PS3 can "PSPresurrect" in Japan, and if those sales in America are the best it can do.

Seriously, 2008 so far has been sort of a let down for HD gaming hardware sales in general, but there's still 2009, which rather of the "year of the PS3" is the "((last?) year of the PS3). At this point, especially after the GTAIV thingy (there are still the May NPD but eh) I do not feel safe about saying anything anymore.

it might explain that, despite having 13 million units on the market, there's a huge lag in software sales?

I'll tell you how I see it:

Despite having the PS3 since the EU launch (23rd March) the first game I DO want is MGS4. There are some other games in the line up worth being bought, and I did buy them, but really, I kinda have the feeling they just do not belong to a PlayStation console. "It's not the reason why I bought PS3". Maybe (probably) that's just me, but seriously, so far only DMC4 and GTAIV reached the western market as former known PS games.

I seriously would like to know how people reacted about seeing a PlayStation console becoming an half-assed (because it is no match for 360) western-like console, putting aside the whole HD multimedia bullshit.

 

[jarrod]

With regard to the original PSX that wasn't even the case back then, North America accounted for less than 40% of the worldwide Playstation console market. With regard to the XBox as well as the for the 360, North America is a bigger market than the rest of the world combined. So nothing has changed in that regard, the 360 still has about 6 million more unit sales to go to reach former US XBox install base levels.

The difference is the relative sizes between Europe and America's overall markets were similar in the PS1 or PS2 days (with NA having a slight lead, thanks to more successful secondary machines like N64 or Xbox)... now though, the market as whole looks more like Xbox for the HD twins (ie: NA = 2xEU).

If PS3's going to take an eventual worldwide lead, it's needs to start doubling it's current rate of sales in key European and American markets... the fact that after a year the 6m gap is still basically the same is pretty telling imo.

During the PS3's lifecycle, some asian and east European countries will likely improve their relative position somewhat.

No they won't. SCE's already conceded the emerging markets to Nintendo, by virtue of pricepoint alone.

PS3's tracking behind 360 in most non-Japanese Asian markets too, surprisingly.

 

[jarrod]

Here's one for everyone to ponder.

when Sony switched accounting from units shipped out of factory to actual unit sales...

.... didn't they make the assumption in their figures that the SHIPPED units had sold through?

Now, don't know about everywhere else, but there's been a whole shed load of PS3s available in Japan since after the first month of launch.

wouldn't this imply that the sony assumption is that at the start of Q1 2007, all shipped units were sold? Isn't that... not the case?

did they in effect double count units ?

it might explain that, despite having 13 million units on the market, there's a huge lag in software sales?

They gave a revised figure for PS3 ltd... but not PS2 or PSP unfortunately, so we have no real way of getting an accurate unit count for those machines without double counting. :/

 

[Pureauthor]

hmm not sure about that.
Jonnyram sent me a list of PC games with some numbers next to it.

I saw COD4 : 2890 - i was like "awesome, i'll give it a try at 2980 yen"- unfortunately, that was the monthly sales....

You're in Japan, right?

There is a reason I said 'most Asians', and not 'Asians'.

 

[Pureauthor]

Yeah, but we do not know if PS3 can "PSPresurrect" in Japan, and if those sales in America are the best it can do.

The chances of the PS3 pulling a PSP in Japan is about as good as the X360's chances, frankly speaking.

Yes, the PS3's situation in Japan is that bad.

 

[MikeB]

The 360 has a 6 million unit userbase lead and is currently ahead in new unit sales. How you could consider that "on par" is beyond me.

Yes, the 360 has a good lead and had a 1 year headstart for North America (IMO a 6 million lead due to a 1 year headstart and a games like Halo 3, Splinter Cell and PGR already out isn't really that much, especially considering pricepoints), but the PS3 so far sold more units this year based on NPD figures. For the rest of the world combined the PS3 already outsold the 360 based on Sony's data and continues to significantly outsell it based on Sony's data and 3rd party tracking information.

If North American sales stay about on par, each month the PS3 install base draws closer to make good the 360's one year (or more for many countries) headstart. If the PS3 pulls away from 360 sales for North America it goes even faster. Eyes are mainly on Metal Gear Solid 4 and possible pricecuts and their effects for the short term in North America.

 

[DCharlie]

They gave a revised figure for PS3 ltd...

any idea what it went from and too?

i see a figure of close to 4 million - is ... that right?

sub 1 million in japan after Q4, 3 million in the US? ... that seems a bit high.

If North American sales stay about on par, each month the PS3 install base draws closer to make good the 360's one year

if the PS3 keeps catching at the same rate, the PS3 will overhaul the X360 easily!...

.... in 2014 or so.

given we are talking about the PLAYSTATION brand, going against a machine you keep telling us has shot it's load, and is absolutely cursed with RROD and only has the support of one region, surely this is pretty much a failure of epic proportions that the previous market leaders are still lagging so far behind.

What in your opinion went wrong with Sony's master plan that we are now discussing not only when, but IF sony can catch up to second place?

 

[jarrod]

any idea what it went from and too?

i see a figure of close to 4 million - is ... that right?

sub 1 million in japan after Q4, 3 million in the US? ... that seems a bit high.

The 3.61m figure is for FY07 (so from launch to March 31st, 2007). Seems about right I think, though obviously sellthrough would track somewhat lower.

Their original "production shipment" figure for just Q4 2006 was near 4m iirc. :lol

 

[DCharlie]

hmmm - that would still be 1 mill japan, 3 mill in the US. I guess until March that would be right but, um, i can't remember when the PS3 fall off happened.

shrug, never mind.

will wait for MikeB's analysis on Sony's policy failure.

 

[MikeB]

it might explain that, despite having 13 million units on the market, there's a huge lag in software sales?

That's not even the case, read the original article. PS3 software sells better in Europe as well as in Japan. With regard to the US:

"Based on NPD data 360 software sales accounted for 45% of total game sales revenue for February. The PS3 accounted for 24%.So despite the release of the 360 exclusive Lost Oddesey, 360 software sales did not achieve software sales in-line with install base advantage.

The install base advantage ratio for the 360 is 2.52 according to Microsoft's figures.
360 software outsold PS3 software sales by only 1.88 based on value. (Source: Next-gen.biz)"

I understand Microsoft may cloud minds with their PR, they talk about software sold per console and such. But please realize that if a platform has a 1 year headstart this means more time for early adopters to buy new games. For most people it takes time to build up a software library. Someone who owned a console for two years on average will own more games than someone who owned his console for 1 year. Don't fall for Microsoft's PR with regard to this one.

Software attach ratios (as in software sold per user per year) are roughly the same for both platforms.

Latest EA result (known for their subpar quality PS3 ports):

1) PS2 - $166 million in revenue
2) PS3 - $152 m
3) 360 - $128 m

 

[Pureauthor]

That's not even the case, read the original article. PS3 software sells better in Europe as well as in Japan.

Uh...

 

[DCharlie]

i don't need to point out that you are bending figures like it's going out of fashion here.
when you are down to talking about attach rates, you know you've had it. Interestingly, you don't bring up X360 JPN or Euro attach rates. I woooooooonder why?!

So let's move on : this whole PS3 failure thing - what did go wrong?

why are sony so far behind coming up to the second anniversary?

who is to blame for this lagging behind of such a disaster prone machine?

Why can't the PS3 catch up to a machine that apparently breaks whenever you play it for 10 hours total ?

 

[itxaka]

i don't need to point out that you are bending figures like it's going out of fashion here.
when you are down to talking about attach rates, you know you've had it. Interestingly, you don't bring up X360 JPN or Euro attach rates. I woooooooonder why?!

So let's move on : this whole PS3 failure thing - what did go wrong? Nothing

why are sony so far behind coming up to the second anniversary? Because they are with the machine with the best hardware out there and they got the much needed horsepower and games directed at all audiences.

who is to blame for this lagging behind of such a disaster prone machine? There is no laggin, look at the attach rates for the 360 and 2 out of 3 markets are for Sony, and catching up in the other with the big games still coming.

Why can't the PS3 catch up to a machine that apparently breaks whenever you play it for 10 hours total ? The GAP is looking smaller every minute, look at christmas 2007, and look at what is coming in the near future for ps3 and all the advantages it has against the 360. PS3 stands pretty good to be one year later, and it will do real good things in the near future with such blockbusters as LBP, Dragon Quest, Monster Hunter (real version) and the inclusion of Blue-Ray (TM) makes this fine hardware piece as a futureproof console thanks to our friends at Sony Corporation of Japan.

[MikeB Dark Apprentice]Did I do it rigth? [/MikeB Dark Apprentice]

 

[MikeB]

i don't need to point out that you are bending figures like it's going out of fashion here.
when you are down to talking about attach rates, you know you've had it. Interestingly, you don't bring up X360 JPN or Euro attach rates. I woooooooonder why?!

I don't have the exact figures, but I imagine attach rates to be similar like those for the US considering the platform was released at the same time for all 3 regions. Many high profile 360 games may not be of interest to Japanese games, but other titles such as Blue Dragon, Lost Odessey and Dead or Alive 4 make up for that.

So let's move on : this whole PS3 failure thing - what did go wrong?

What do you mean?

why are sony so far behind coming up to the second anniversary?

- Slightly behind the 360? 1 year headstart. Closer release alignments for proven franchices.
- Massively selling slower than the Wii? Pricing, form factor, Wii tapping new kind of consumers and game publishing differences (focussing on new franchices, pulling back the big titles for later release).

Overall the PS3 was designed for the future. Thus the hardware isn't profitable yet for Sony and Sony needed to sell less than the Nintendo Wii to not get into financial problems. Sony also needed to reduce the 360's one year headstart lead and decide the Blu-Ray format war early on, both handily accomplished.

Why can't the PS3 catch up to a machine that apparently breaks whenever you play it for 10 hours total ?

It can, but I am sure it wasn't their aim to outsell the 360 its first year on the market. This would have been very bad for the company financially.

 

[[Nintex]]

What do you mean?

Some people will stand in defense of the great Sony empire long after it's downfall. :lol

Why isn't it doing PS2 numbers when the market is bigger compared to when the PS2 launched?

Latest EA result (known for their subpar quality PS3 ports):

1) PS2 - $166 million in revenue
2) PS3 - $152 m
3) 360 - $128 m

Well Xbox 360 games are 59,99 euro while PS3 games vary from 64,99 all the way up to 79,99. The PS3 ports aren't the only thing about EA that is subpar quality.

It can, but I am sure it wasn't their aim to outsell the 360 its first year on the market. This would have been very bad for the company financially.

So Sony wanted the PS3 to tank as bad as it did?

 

[Pureauthor]

- Massively selling slower than the Wii? Pricing, form factor, Wii tapping new kind of consumers and game publishing differences (focussing on new franchices, pulling back the big titles for later release).

Nintendo's release list for the Wii thus far blows the release list for the N64 and the GCN in an equivalent timeframe out of the water.

Overall the PS3 was designed for the future. Thus the hardware isn't profitable yet for Sony and Sony needed to sell less than the Nintendo Wii to not get into financial problems.

It can, but I am sure it wasn't their aim to outsell the 360 its first year on the market. This would have been very bad for the company financially.

Oh, lord, this is priceless.

 

[MikeB]

Oh, lord, this is priceless.

But true, the PS2 and PSP hardware is profitable. PS2, PSP and PS3 software sales are profitable. But PS3 hardware sales are not, although the situation is rapidly improving for Sony.

If people would buy 10 PS3 games or a Sony HDTV, the startup investments would be easily compensated. However only few people actually do this, until then the PS2 must remain strong and PS3 production costs need to be reduced. Once there's a slimline PS3 I imagine the PS2 will get its well deserved retirement and you will see massive PS3 sales.

 

[jarrod]

- Slightly behind the 360? 1 year headstart. Closer release alignments for proven franchices.
- Massively selling slower than the Wii? Pricing, form factor, Wii tapping new kind of consumers and game publishing differences (focussing on new franchices, pulling back the big titles for later release).

Overall the PS3 was designed for the future. Thus the hardware isn't profitable yet for Sony and Sony needed to sell less than the Nintendo Wii to not get into financial problems. Sony also needed to reduce the 360's one year headstart lead and decide the Blu-Ray format war early on, both handily accomplished.

Wait, PS3's behind 360 due to a "one year headstart lead"... but then Sony's also "handily" reduced that "one year headstart lead". Uh... which is it then? Is the "one year headstart lead" any different that it was, say a year ago?

But true, the PS2 and PSP hardware is profitable. PS2, PSP and PS3 software sales are profitable. But PS3 hardware sales are not, although the situation is rapidly improving for Sony.

PS3 in 2 years has wiped out all SCE's profits from the PS2 era... and that's even considering the big returns on software and PS2/PSP hardware in the past two years.

Frankly, at this point, there's no where to go but up.

 

[DCharlie]

If people would buy 10 PS3 games or a Sony HDTV, the startup investments would be easily compensated.

bububububu software sales ratio....

 

[MikeB]

Wait, PS3's behind 360 due to a "one year headstart lead"... but then Sony's also "handily" reduced that "one year headstart lead". Uh... which is it then? Is the "one year headstart lead" any different that it was, say a year ago?

Yes, the lead is less. I think the 360 sold well more units than only 6 million during its 1 year headstart year for the US and Japan, and ~16 months or more headstart for pretty much the rest of the world including Europe.

Remember the 360 was often hyped by the media for its "fast sales" during this period.

 

[Pureauthor]

But true, the PS2 and PSP hardware is profitable. PS2, PSP and PS3 software sales are profitable. But PS3 hardware sales are not, although the situation is rapidly improving for Sony.

If people would buy 10 PS3 games or a Sony HDTV, the startup investments would be easily compensated. However only few people actually do this, until then the PS2 must remain strong and PS3 production costs need to be reduced. Once there's a slimline PS3 I imagine the PS2 will get its well deserved retirement and you will see massive PS3 sales.

The Playstation line has always sold on the razors/blades model. Are you telling me the PS1 and PS2's massive runaway success from the get-go was bad for Sony?

And as the PS3's software sales good or not? Because if they are, then Sony should be 'compensated', after all.

 

[Uncle]

So do you guys have any estimates as to when Sony will choose to outsell the competition? I mean it's obvious they've held back due to financial reasons. Analysts seem to think 2009.

 

[Pureauthor]

So do you guys have any estimates as to when Sony will choose to outsell the competition? I mean it's obvious they've held back due to financial reasons. Analysts seem to think 2009.

Well, they've got ten years to go about it, so the timeframe's a little loose.

 

[jarrod]

Yes, the lead is less. I think the 360 sold well more units than only 6 million during its 1 year headstart year for the US and Japan, and ~16 months or more headstart for pretty much the rest of the world including Europe.

Remember the 360 was often hyped by the media for its "fast sales" during this period.

Actually, I remember 360 being hounded for extreme shortages in early 2007, and continually being criticized for underselling PS2.

And a year ago would be well after PS3 launch... so where's the progress on Sony's end, is the gap significantly different than a year ago? Or was it mostly just in the launch rush then?

 

[MikeB]

The Playstation line has always sold on the razors/blades model. Are you telling me the PS1 and PS2's massive runaway success from the get-go was bad for Sony?

And as the PS3's software sales good or not? Because if they are, then Sony should be 'compensated', after all.

Basically they have been making far more hardware investments for the PS3 than for the PS1 and PS2, so these units could sell more early on without becoming a problem for Sony.

The PS3 sales are good, but not good enough to compensate hardware losses early on. Like I stated it takes some time for people to build up a software library. People don't buy 10-20 games at launch, but spanned over a 5 year period on the market it's far more likely. And Sony would have earned back their investment and can add some additional profit.

Long term strategy.

 

[Scum]

What th-?! What's going on in here...?

....

 

[MikeB]

Actually, I remember 360 being hounded for extreme shortages in early 2007, and continually being criticized for underselling PS2.

It's still massively underselling compared to the PS2's prior fiscal year. (just like the PS3)

Or was it mostly just in the launch rush then?

Like you can see from the reported figures for the 2 previous quarters, Sony sold 1.6 million more PS3s than Microsoft sold 360s (5.6 million 360s vs 7.2 million PS3s). That's no launch rush...

 

[RubberJohnny]

So when will this 'long-term strategy' pay off?

 

[Dirtbag]

I mean with regard to pushing hardware. I think most people interested in the 360 as shooter gaming platform already bought the platform for games like Halo 3 or the original Gears of War.

I am also referring to sequels to games which did well on the original XBox. All sequels to XBoxx million sellers are already out, only Fable and the multi-platform game Star Wars remaining.

This is my favorite line in the thread.
Based on what exactly? Your gut feelings?

You don't think there are tons of people waiting for price drops?

And honestly why aren't future pricedrops factored into your wizardy?

 

[charlequin]

But true, the PS2 and PSP hardware is profitable.

Yes. And now, for extra points, here's a bonus question!

When the PSP and PS2 launched, Sony....

a) made a profit on the sale of their hardware
b) sold the hardware at a loss


...

Now, based on the answer to this question, can you guess why "Sony didn't want to sell a lot of hardware" is a specious claim?

 

[jarrod]

Like you can see from the reported figures for the 2 previous quarters, Sony sold 1.6 million more PS3s than Microsoft sold 360s (5.6 million 360s vs 7.2 million PS3s). That's no launch rush...

No, it shipped 1.6m more... during a period where Microsoft was supposedly channel clearing. That's no sales "progress" by any real metric, shipment figures can be hugely different from what's going on in the actual marketplace (see the channel stuffing antics of GCN in 2003, PSP in 2005 or 360 in 2006).

So where's the progress? Why's the gap still larger than PS3's userbase in it's most successful region? When will this assured second place "victory" occur given that?

 

[MikeB]

So when will this 'long-term strategy' pay off?

IMO it is already paying off for Sony as a company. They won the HD DVD vs Blu-Ray format war, a prolonged format war would have costed Sony dearly. The PS3 may also have sparked some additional Sony HDTV sales, in general Sony nearly tripled their profits for the previous fiscal year.

Rumours are that the PS3 isn't losing Sony much money anymore, they anticipate a gaming division profit for this year. To compensate for all the R&D done on the PS3 the years before the PS3's release and to cover launch costs (not deducting Blu-Ray, HDTV sales and PS2 related gains), it will take a while. Maybe up to 2 years, but from a 10 year plan point of view that seems more than OK.

 

[MikeB]

You don't think there are tons of people waiting for price drops?

And honestly why aren't future pricedrops factored into your wizardy?

It is. Reread some other comments made by me within this thread.

People waiting for pricedrops accounts for all consoles.