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My Fanboy market analysis of HD consoles... and then some
- Thread starter MikeB
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Evander said:
I may be accused of trolling for saying it, but there's a hefty portion of PS3 owners who purchased the machine because it's bar none the best BD player on the market, and that don't use it for gaming. Converting those owners into gamers is going to be a challenge.
Pureauthor said:
What's to say the move to HD media being the primary mode of distribution (as opposed to DVD) is going to happen any time soon?
Evander said:
Even if you consider that at one point digidistrib could look "good enough" (I guess, good enough for most people not to see any difference with disc based movies) people will still buy discs. They want to keep their stuff, not just watch it once and then say buy to it 24 hours later. Movies renting never killed the sales in any way. I don't see digital distribution doing it.
Firewire said:
pressing the discs doesn't mean that people want them.
Look at DVD marketshare compared to Bluray marketshare. Bluray's got a long road ahead if it's going to become the dominant format, and it has rather little motivating consumers to help it.
Look at feature lists on discs. With some exceptions, generally what you get on the Bluray are the exact same features as the DVD, only in High Def (sometimes it's only themovie inhigh def, with the special features left in 480i)
Why is a consumer going to buy a $400 BD player, and then pay $30 instead of $15 per movie, if all that they get is the same content? For some people, the HD picture quality makes all the difference, but obviously, not for enough people, at least not yet.
Laser Disc and Beta Max movies existed in stores at one time. I remember seeing full Albums released on Mini Disc at Sears. As previouslymentioned, I own a DVD-Audio, or two, for when I'm driving my father's car. Not all media formats are able to grab a foothold, and even the ones that do don't always rise to the top.
Raist said:
I will agree with you that as long as Digi Distro focusses on movie rental, rather than purchase, it will never catch on for anything more than rental (although it might put somerental chains out of business.) However, there ARE places to buy movies digitally already, and the trend will only grow over time. Especially when studios figure out a DRM solution that they like, and realize how much more profitable it is over physical disc media.
Itunes has shown us that while people do like to keep their "stuff", they don't seem to mind so much whether that stuff is made of atoms, or if it's made of bits.
andthebeatgoeson
Junior Member
Epiphyte said:
I thought it was hilarious about analyzing the market using charts where the majority of games are 'last gen'. I mean, that's good analysis right there.
Digital distribution...digital distribution...
You know what? It's not gonna take over anytime soon. I dunno how well Blu ray will do vs DVD and I don't care, but people keep talking like in 2-5 years everyone will just download movies. I'm sorry, but it's just not gonna happen like that. There's a MASSIVE gap between downloading a song off of iTunes and the idea of masses of people all downloading large chunks of data like a movie file. (and might I also note the success of the things like iTunes still haven't killed off CDs in any form and don't appear set to do so anytime in the near future)
We have many areas in the US that don't even have broadband access yet (and this is 2008 for crying out loud!), let alone the type of insanely fast fiber networks that wouldn't make a download of a 480i SD video file tedious, let alone the potential download-time nightmare of those 20+gig 1080i/1080p movies everyone loves to watch on their new 32" LCD.
You know what? It's not gonna take over anytime soon. I dunno how well Blu ray will do vs DVD and I don't care, but people keep talking like in 2-5 years everyone will just download movies. I'm sorry, but it's just not gonna happen like that. There's a MASSIVE gap between downloading a song off of iTunes and the idea of masses of people all downloading large chunks of data like a movie file. (and might I also note the success of the things like iTunes still haven't killed off CDs in any form and don't appear set to do so anytime in the near future)
We have many areas in the US that don't even have broadband access yet (and this is 2008 for crying out loud!), let alone the type of insanely fast fiber networks that wouldn't make a download of a 480i SD video file tedious, let alone the potential download-time nightmare of those 20+gig 1080i/1080p movies everyone loves to watch on their new 32" LCD.
PantherLotus
Professional Schmuck
Just for the record, I would like to defend Sales-Age in general and say that the collective as an entity cannot possibly be this blind. The OP may have a point, he may have some data, but good god the method is horrendous.
Ignoring last gen consoles (PS2 & Wii) when analyzing the future sales of higher-end products is absolutely catastrophic. What valuable information could one possibly glean from ignoring the current market leader and the previous market leader?
I'd say bookmark this for later, but this can not possibly be saved.
Ignoring last gen consoles (PS2 & Wii) when analyzing the future sales of higher-end products is absolutely catastrophic. What valuable information could one possibly glean from ignoring the current market leader and the previous market leader?
I'd say bookmark this for later, but this can not possibly be saved.
laesperanzapaz
Member
1. awesome job, OP.
2. At first I thought you were being too negative on 360, until those europe numbers hit me. Just a few montsh ago, I swore I thought MS was taking Europe, but it seems no.
To this day, it amazes me how MS has let this gen slip through its fingers, re: both US and Europe. I'm not talking about Wii competition, nobody predicted this. I'm talkinga bout holding back the PS3. I was so sure PS3 was done for.
I really really hope PS3 in the future is
- far smaller. it's too big right now.
- includes PS2 BC. this is a dealbreaker for me.
- far cheaper. never bougth a console for more than 200 bucks, not gonna start now.
How long do you think until this happens? I say the BC announcement will be by 2008, the price will be 200 by 2009, and slimming down will happen by end of 2009 at the earliest.
2. At first I thought you were being too negative on 360, until those europe numbers hit me. Just a few montsh ago, I swore I thought MS was taking Europe, but it seems no.
To this day, it amazes me how MS has let this gen slip through its fingers, re: both US and Europe. I'm not talking about Wii competition, nobody predicted this. I'm talkinga bout holding back the PS3. I was so sure PS3 was done for.
I really really hope PS3 in the future is
- far smaller. it's too big right now.
- includes PS2 BC. this is a dealbreaker for me.
- far cheaper. never bougth a console for more than 200 bucks, not gonna start now.
How long do you think until this happens? I say the BC announcement will be by 2008, the price will be 200 by 2009, and slimming down will happen by end of 2009 at the earliest.
MWS Natural
Member
Request for thread change to:
Sony Fanboy's Opinion of HD consoles
Sony Fanboy's Opinion of HD consoles
Oh look ... another thread about PS3 vs 360 has devolved into a digital distribution trainwreck
Oh look ... Evander has the most posts in the thread
Oh look ... he's retreading the same talking points that've been directly refuted in every similarly shitted-up thread
Oh look ...
Oh look ... Evander has the most posts in the thread
Oh look ... he's retreading the same talking points that've been directly refuted in every similarly shitted-up thread
Oh look ...
The main thing holding back movie distribution is that most people don't have a device or an internet connection in their living room.Narcosis said:
Solve that and 20GB files are not real issues. If people use NetFlix, which takes days to send you disks in the mail. They'll use digital distribution... If the hardware is there and the right business/technology model comes along.
It's not going to replace anything. At least, not in a time frame of any importance. But that's not the point. Has the internet replaced newspapers? No. But it doesn't need to replace them to affect them.
Insane Metal
Member
summary? plz?
EDIT: oh. It seems the article is OMG PS3 >> 360
EDIT: oh. It seems the article is OMG PS3 >> 360
Narcosis said:
It most definitely will not take over as soon as people are projecting. All this DD talk is simply a way to try to talk about something that doesn't have Sony's name tied to (One of many names). People have been instilling this for months before the demise of HD-DVD as the writing was on the wall for a long time.
How can anyone think that with the lack of solid speeds offered across the US for a single example will allow downloading movies a breeze? It's not going to happen anytime soon that's for sure. I want my True HD experience with matching HD audio to video, and I'm not downloading movies that are seemingly filling up 50gb discs.
Besides, lots of people i'd imagine feel better having a physical copy of something. Especially after having my HDD's die on my lately, I don't think i'll be buying anything else DD that's not in small, tiny files like music.
Chrange said:
The United States data is pretty concrete and can be easily verified, Europe is a far more diverse market thus these charts were used to back up the data we do have. The charts clearly show that despite the 1 year and 5 months headstart for the 360 PS3 sales are rivalling 360 software sales in Europe even beating them, adding weight to the other comments.
With regard to Japan I didn't provide game charts as the provided data by various Japanese trackers is pretty concrete as well. I added the Famitsu most wanted list to show which games will have the most effect on the Japanese gaming market, it has been a good indicator for first day game sales in Japan (taking into account install base) as well as being hardware sellers. Games do get higher on the list when they are near release, but FF XIII has been on their list for ages it's easily the most anticipated game for Japan at this point.
pgtl_10 said:
A comment from Microsoft was included citing the current install bases in the United States based on NPD's figures. So additional software charts don't add much context with regard to install base (we have concrete figures!), the only point of interest is that Devil May Cry 4 only sold by a ratio of 1.26 more on the 360 for February while the 360's install base ratio advantage is more like 2.52, so relatively speaking the game is more popular amongst the PS3 userbase, we may see a similar trend for games like GTA IV.
PantherLotus
Professional Schmuck
MikeB said:
why don't you do a full analysis of the entire generation of consoles?
PantherLotus said:
This will probably be the PS2's last significant year on the market in western countries, the platform will probably still sell well for many years in regions and countries like South America and India after 2008, but worldwide is expected to drop sharply in significance next year.
The Nintendo Wii is expected to have a shorter lifecycle as demand and supply of HD content is growing rapidly. There is near to no overlap in game titles with regard to best selling games amongst the Wii and PS3 games, only Guitar Hero 3 is in the top 20 for both platforms. In terms of features and specs there are great differences as well, so they are two very different platform offerings. Personally I would say the Wii competes more with the PS2 at this point (despite martket saturation for the PS2, the PS2 is cheaper though and has a larger backlog of titles) than with the PS3.
With regard to Japan here's the latest Famitsu most wanted chart: (29 Feb - 6 March)
1. Final Fantasy XIII (PS3)
2. Dragon Quest IX (DS)
3. BioHazard (RE) 5 (PS3)
4. MGS4 (PS3)
5. Monster Hunter Portable 2nd G (PSP)
6. Mario Kart (wii)
7. Dragon Quest VI (DS)
8. Dragon Quest V (DS)
9. Monster Hunter 3 (wii)
10. Final Fantasy Versus VIII (PS3)
11. The Last Remnant (PS3)
12. Animal Crossing (wii)
13. GT5 (PS3)
14. Musou OROCHI (PS2)
15. White Knight Chronicles (PS3)
MGS4 moving up up from number 6 to number 4, The Last Remnant moves up a spot from 12 to 11, GT5 moves up from spot 15 to 13 and White Knight Story makes its entry into the top 15.
1. Final Fantasy XIII (PS3)
2. Dragon Quest IX (DS)
3. BioHazard (RE) 5 (PS3)
4. MGS4 (PS3)
5. Monster Hunter Portable 2nd G (PSP)
6. Mario Kart (wii)
7. Dragon Quest VI (DS)
8. Dragon Quest V (DS)
9. Monster Hunter 3 (wii)
10. Final Fantasy Versus VIII (PS3)
11. The Last Remnant (PS3)
12. Animal Crossing (wii)
13. GT5 (PS3)
14. Musou OROCHI (PS2)
15. White Knight Chronicles (PS3)
MGS4 moving up up from number 6 to number 4, The Last Remnant moves up a spot from 12 to 11, GT5 moves up from spot 15 to 13 and White Knight Story makes its entry into the top 15.
King_Slender
Banned
MikeB said:
And when Sony releases a waggle controller for the PS2 and packs it all together for $99, what then?
MikeB said:
It's clear that the PS3 really, really needs more RPGs. Most of the PS3's most wanted titles are RPGs. MS may not have gotten any substantial marketshare in Japan with Blue Dragon and Lost Odyssey, but they did realize the importance of having big RPG titles in their games library. They not only got Mistwalker to do big exclusive games for the 360, they also moneyhatted Namco in making Eternal Sonata a timed exclusive and Square Enix into doing a 360 exclusive title (Infinite Undiscovery) even though it makes no business sense at all with the 360s weak sales in Japan.
ymmv said:
Agreed, Blue Dragon sold twice as many copies than the 2nd best selling 360 game for Japan and pushed 360 hardware sales like no other 360 game did.
I think Sony realizes the importance of RPGs as well though, afterall they will be publishing White Knight Story which is being developer by Level-5. Personally I don't think they were much in a hurry to spike sales for the PS3's first year on the market and will probably push more when PS3 hardware becomes more profitable to them. This also allows for the more high profile games to be polished some more.
In any case Final Fantasy XIII for the PS3 is the most anticipated game for Japan and Square Enix is working on other RPG games including Star Ocean 4. After the Final Fantasy games being released I assume we will probably see a Dragon Quest game for the PS3 in the future as well.
laesperanzapaz said:
I think many people look at the PS3 that way and a slimline $299 PS3 seems to be some kind of sweetspot for many. I never owned a PS2 myself, but I agree BC is of important value (to people like you and me), I bought God of War 1 and 2 for my PS3 and I'm very happy that I had the chance to experience these Epic games, I love the huge boss battles, music and polish of these games!
Anyway related is this poll by Engadget:
http://www.engadget.com/2008/02/27/poll-whats-it-going-to-take-to-make-you-buy-a-ps3/
25.9% stated to already own one. About 8% stated they will buy one soon, 8.7% are waiting for a specific announced game, but most interesting about 35.5% stated they are waiting for a $299 / Slimline version.
MikeB said:
DMC 4 started out as an exclusive for PS3. After it went multi, people still had the assumption that PS3 version would be the better one, beginning on one platform usually leads to being the better version. Thus, most people, including PS3 / X360 owners, would logically buy the PS3 version.
With GTA IV, the X360 version is being seen as the better version. I would expect to to have sold ratio along the lines of console user base.
knitoe said:
It depends on the territory. I expect GTAIV to be big for ps3 in Europe and the opposite in the US, and since the ps3 is still quite new in Europe, it will push hardware sales here together with MGS4 and GT5 all coming close.
The quality and/or the the DLC contents have very much few impacts on the sales, it is just some hardcore discussion. Marketing push is another story.
BishopLamont
Banned
wat?MikeB said:
knitoe said:
I don't think that's per see the case. I think PS2 owners looking for a HD console upgrade will look at the type of games which can be expected, the most popular PS2 games will see more or less confirmed exclusive sequels on the PS3 including Final Fantasy, Metal Gear Solid, Gran Turismo, Jak & Daxter, God of War and Getaway.
I think this weighs stronger for most than an alledged superior 360 version. Reports however suggest the PS3 will have slighty improved graphics:
"Take-Two also said that both the 360 and PS3 version of the game be visually almost identical, with the PS3 coming out slightly on top in some areas. "
http://www.palgn.com.au/article.php...68291c79&title=Rockstar+sequel+coming+in+2009
Some say the "exclusive bonus episodes" makes the 360 more preferable. But something you have to pay for I wouldn't call a bonus, maybe a bonus to Microsoft's future profits. Many 360 users haven't even set up a free silver account yet for downloading demos and such, so it's anyone's quess how many people will actually buy this. DLC will be available for both platforms, only some additional episodes you have to pay for are exclusive. Personally I haven't even played through San Andreas yet.
There are also plenty of additional arguments which can be made for getting the PS3 version over a 360 version, including with regard to free online play, hardware reliability, disc scratching, drive noise and maybe even like this report suggests better graphics. Who knows, maybe GTA IV will offer nice PS Home specific additions and extras in the future as well.
Anyway GTA III despite improved graphics and extra content on the XBox didn't really sell that well. But now it's a simultaneous release and the entry price for the 360 is cheaper, in any case it will be interesting to follow. Microsoft will surely continue to hype up this future episodic content nobody even has a glimpse of information about.
Starchasing
Member
MikeB said:
You made me laugh and im not taking you seriously anymore
Scottlarock
Banned
Snah would love this thread.
Aika'svyse
Banned
Okay now that we got the Sony fan analysis out the way wheres the ms fan...
nevermind
nevermind
Starchasing
Member
I missed that one... the typical excuse of they are not really competing...
Pureauthor
Member
MikeB said:
'Belief' isn't worth beans unless it's grounded in some evidence. My evidence for my belief of the Wii outlasting the PS3 would be the simple fact that it's tearing up the sales charts worldwide, and Nintendo has no incentive whatsoever to pull the plugs on a cash-cow like the Wii until a serious threat presents itself (like, say, the PS4).
Incidentally, why do you believe the Wii will be replaced before the PS3 is?
Starchasing said:
I honestly think if there would have been no Wii the PS3 wouldn't have sold faster, it would mostly help GameCube and PS2 sales. For the long run I think the Wii may even be an advantage for the PS3's long term perspective as the console intoduces many new people to gaming.
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