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November 2014 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes December 9th
- Thread starter donny2112
- Start date
AstuteClass
Banned
No PR from either yet?
ethomaz
Banned
Just after 6:30pm PST I guess.
But I expect again spin PR if PS4 won or real PR if Xbone won.
Think MS did some PR in the morning of NPD day last month or some month ago.
I will find MS winning RATHER unsurprising and Sony winning RATHER surprising, but actually I am totally clueless this time and would none of the outcomes would surprise me MUCH.
So nothing but a huge difference (>200K) would be that amusing.
Plot twist ... PS4 and XB1 sell the exact same amount 
they look at each other, shrug shoulders, hug it out, release joint statement :-D ok I'll stop being silly now
Edit: Out of interest what's the closest month we've had? Wondering if it's even realistic to have even numbers
they look at each other, shrug shoulders, hug it out, release joint statement :-D ok I'll stop being silly nowEdit: Out of interest what's the closest month we've had? Wondering if it's even realistic to have even numbers
Final Verdict
Member
I wonder if they have 2 separate PR statements prepared for if they won or if they lost...
Or maybe they already know by now as NPD maybe releases the info to them early?
Or maybe they already know by now as NPD maybe releases the info to them early?
samuraidino
Member
I think anything other than a landslide victory for Microsoft is going to be pretty bad for the Xbone. Price cuts, marketing deals with assassin's Creed and cod, a halo release and big game bundles all in the one month should really be enough to outsell the ps4 by a lot.
FunkyPajamas
Member
It's usually at the end of the day, so about 10 hours from now (18:30 Eastern, I think).
Yep smack bang in the middle of the night for me. Wake up to a 100 unread pages and only 5 minutes to read through it. Usually wait 24 hours for it to calm down then read the calm end of thread comments
Ghost_Messiah
Member
Predicting a comfortable win for MS. They pulled out all the stops this month with a hyper aggressive pricing strategy and the launch of a major Halo title. Also the hard data we do have is that that the Xbox One outsold the PS4 powerfully and consistently in the UK which is the closest market to the US in the world.
If MS won the month in the UK (which we know they did) then that almost certainly means they won the month in the US.
If MS won the month in the UK (which we know they did) then that almost certainly means they won the month in the US.
Final Verdict
Member
LOL, yeah, no way that X1 did THAT well! That would be Microsoft's 2nd best Holiday for console sales ever just one year after their new console launches, and they would probably have said something by now anyways.
I think they should keep their numbers though...
It's just pathetic how they steal their numbers from places like this for 'adjustments'.
I wish we could stop it, but it looks like a lose-lose scenario
If we have absolutely no numbers ever, then there would be nothing to really talk about.
But then as soon as someone gives numbers, it opens the floodgates for them to make "adjustments".
And then they get credit by some as being an 'industry research firm'....puh!
:/.
Your right, but not everyone knows.
Before I started participating in these threads, I used to think that the numbers were real tracked numbers....
I'm glad there are people like you willing to take the time to explain how things work.
Trust me. I'm a PhD
Member
Plot twist ... PS4 and XB1 sell the exact same amount
Edit: Out of interest what's the closest month we've had? Wondering if it's even realistic to have even numbers
I believe Aqua said is was only 1K difference the month GTAIV launched last gen (April 2008 I think?)
Got a link to the UK numbers?
Dead Prince
Banned
shit. it's the day isn't it? preparing the underground bunker with hot tub.
The UK really seems to be the most price aware country in the world. I can't see how UK sales can be used for US predictions.
Aquamarine
Member
It's <1K, actually, and it wasn't me who said that. ;-)
Hmm, seems to be some exaggeration.
XB1 'just' outsold PS4 each week for the past 4 weeks in the UK.
PS4 outsold the XB1 on black Friday in the UK.
I get what what you're saying but from my casual observations the XB1 seems to have already been doing better in the UK before the price cut. Not as good as PS4 but if you were to compare amazon.uk against amazon.com (I know this only represents about a 5% sample), the XB1 and PS4 were usually neck and neck in the UK as apposed to the, up until recently, fairly strong lead by PS4 in US. I'd say if the US market is close to the UK it's a slightly skewed graph but probably follows a similar trend. So if we had the exact same deals and XB1 just won here, then I'd say it'd be neck and neck in US, in my opinion.
1K difference, that's tight, would be amazing to see it that close during November.
ethomaz
Banned
Yeap... Xbone ahead by little.
I wonder how bad will be January for Xbone... last year it was terrible already and now after the timed price cut / deal gone....
1K difference wasn't the most amazing thing about April 2008 NPD, though. It was more about how Wii murdered them COMBINED XD
Aquamarine
Member
PS3 sold 187.1K, and Xbox 360 sold 188.0K.
Can you imagine the reactions if Xbox One and PS4 were only 0.9K apart? It would be insane.
And that was while being heavily supply-constrained (like Wii was...for both 2007 and 2008, basically).
Aquamarine
Member
I know you meant November 2007, but Wii sold >6.2 million throughout all of 2007.
PS4 is at 2.8 million through October 2014.
Can it sell >3.4 million in two months to surpass the Wii? Ehh...
I agree. MS having to resort to firesale prices to try and move units for one month changes nothing. Sony will run away with every month in 2015. The race for this gen is over.
EGOMON
Member
Oh then I better hit the sack
Thanks
ethomaz
Banned
Yeap... I edited my post... sorry.
Yearly it is impossible... I mean November... can PS4 or Xbone sell 1 million? It is not impossible but I don't believe that.
Edit - I'm surprised PS4 is tracking ahead Wii in shipments until September... I never expected that.
145k for January wasnt all that terrible at all. PS4 was just under much higher demand plus it was still 499.
ethomaz
Banned
I don't know how much 360 did in first January but even PS3 did 100k better than Xbone... PS3 at $600.
Edit - Unless MS extend the $329 deal I can't see how January 2015 can be good for them... it will be even lower than last year.
Thanks... yeap Xbone first January was really bad.
Link?
It was 1 week where X1 "just" outsold PS4....that was last week according to MCV..
Welfare
Member
360 did 250k
Aquamarine
Member
PS4 / Xbox One November sales targets to beat (2nd Novembers):
Wii - 981K (November 2007)
PS2 - 919K (November 2001)
N64 - 764K (November 1997)
Xbox 360 - 511K (November 2006)
Xbox - 468K (November 2002)
PS3 - 466K (November 2007)
Wii - 981K (November 2007)
PS2 - 919K (November 2001)
N64 - 764K (November 1997)
Xbox 360 - 511K (November 2006)
Xbox - 468K (November 2002)
PS3 - 466K (November 2007)
Really cant compare the launch periods when you consider all of thee numbers.
theprodigy
Member
citation needed
ethomaz
Banned
Why? There is no other comparison to do... this November will be compared with second November of last gen consoles too... you have historical data to see how good/bad a console is doing.
Up to N64 it will be easy I guess... Wii and PS2 are the challenge.
Welfare
Member
I would hope these 2 consoles can beat a supply constrained Wii. But then again, it was a supply constrained Wii.
They also said both consoles doubled sales from week before, confirming it "just" outsold it last two weeks. Then there was the retail insider confirming it was practically a tie.
Final Verdict
Member
Never count Microsoft out, especially in their best territory.
Yeah, clearly impossible. Wii was just a phenomena, PS4 is, and will be (I believe) the second fastest selling console ever for it's first year, but unlike the Wii, I think it will keep going for longer and pass up the Wii, though I don't think it will reach PS2 levels.
I think the only reason PS4 is even close worldwide is because of emerging markets, and also because the Wii was supply constrained.
Pretty sure some of our retail-gafers who saw the reports told us in the pal thread they pretty much tied last week and MCV tried to spin some shit to get clicks.
Not only in emerging markets though. PS4 sells above-average in most EU countries aswell they picked a lot of sales up.
FullMetaltech
Member
That wii number is pretty impressive. I wonder if both Sony and MS can reach that this time around.
Final Verdict
Member
Interesting...
X1 gonna smash that 360 record with a golden hammer, but interesting to see that no console has ever broken the 1M record for their 2nd Nov.
I believe that the highest November sales month for any console ever was in 2011 (7th November) when the 360 sole like 1.7M units.
Speaking of which, It is hard to believe that this will be the 360's 10th year on the market!!!
And it is still selling almost as good as the Wii U!! (not that that is a huge achievement).
Doesnt make much sense to me to try and discern anything at all by comparing launch period numbers from one January to the year after. Way too many variables to get anything useful from such a comparison IMO.
Final Verdict
Member
Hey Aqua, is it too late to edit our numbers...
Welfare
Member
Wii sold over 2 million in November 08.
Also the achievement isn't that the 360 is selling almost as good as the Wii U, but is a failure that the Wii U is selling so close to the 360.
Aquamarine
Member
No home console, that is.
The GBA sold 1.3 million in its second November.
Remember, the GBA sold like crazy in the USA. Its life was artificially cut short by Nintendo wanting to release the DS (and Sony releasing the PSP).