Actually the average is ~95k
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November 2014 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes December 9th
- Thread starter donny2112
- Start date
Actually the average is ~95k
Even if. Perceived value of non bundled xbone is no longer at $349
SaucyJack
Member
The word pyrrhic might be used.
FinalStageBoss
Banned
100k gap is about what I expect, not that big of a deal considering everything MS did. Both consoles probably put up great numbers and ultimately that's what matters to Sony and MS.
FF Seraphim
Member
Well it has affected my behavior to wait until next year to see if the price will drop to $299 during November with additional games on top of that. I know I am not alone in this mind set.
Suikoguy
I whinny my fervor lowly, for his length is not as great as those of the Hylian war stallions
It's really amusing when you consider how Microsoft itself has treated the 360 over the last several years.
The question is, will it be justified?
All they need to have in a PR statement is "we had the top selling console in November" and nothing more really. Let people reading the statement assume how much they won by (well, if they did win) + make them assume the Xbox One is the hotter item this Holiday season.
Beating the competitor that has been topping you in sales all year in the biggest month of the year for sales thus far (November) is fine enough -- especially since the sales for the PS4 will be high too. Don't get why people are so focused on the gap they win by. PS4 could have possibly beaten the Xbox One 2:1 in November if MS didn't drop the price and have other deals.
To be fair they had some crazy offers. A week ago i would have thought they'd outsell Sony by atleast 300k now i'm not so sure anymore.
Don't forget that MS mostly focuses on the US. They need to start doing something for Europe or it will become ugly.
wapplew
Member
If they can keep the different within 1m the whole gen, it's pretty impressive.
1m lead look massive right now, when they sold something like 30m vs 31m, 1m is nothing.
Winning by how much is not important for MS, as long as they can say they win November, perception will change
Xbox is not the losing console anymore, it's save to buy now.
1m lead look massive right now, when they sold something like 30m vs 31m, 1m is nothing.
Winning by how much is not important for MS, as long as they can say they win November, perception will change
Xbox is not the losing console anymore, it's save to buy now.
Not if it's above 200k... It would be decent.
But anything under 200k will probably be somewhat discounted, and hold on to your buttocks if it's under 100k...
In a vaccuum the sales will be probaby great for both consoles anyway (although I'm not expecting anything groundbreaking, as both companies have been suprisingly silent, particularly MS, after BF), but when you sacrifice your margins as much as MS did this November, it has to count for something in terms of "outpacing" your competition, and closing the gap, right?
Suikoguy
I whinny my fervor lowly, for his length is not as great as those of the Hylian war stallions
Yeah, the lack of PR from either side seems to indicate the difference is not great.
Coulomb_Barrier
Member
Lol you can't be serious. PS4 will launch in China soon too you know.
I doubt the difference will ever be that close. Even the Great SNES vs Genesis war of the 90s had Nintendo eventually pull way ahead in sales.
shinra-bansho
Member
Relative to the proportion of hardware sales that are loaded into these two months of the year (tends to be something like 40-50%), it's not a major advantage.
Look, the sales gap between PS4 and XB1 is over a million units by now. A 200k win would really be nothing when you look at the whole picture.
Nov 2013 - PS4 229k
Dec 2013 - XB1 ~50k
Jan 2014 - PS4 130k
Feb 2014 - PS4 10k
Mar 2014 - PS4 60k
Apr 2014 - PS4 84k
May 2014 - PS4 120k
Jun 2014 - PS4 72k
Jul 2014 - PS4 56k
Aug 2014 - PS4 30k
Sep 2014 - PS4 254k
Oct 2014 - PS4 ~120k
Total: 1115k
(i compiled the data out of the results from the prediction threads for the months before, if that's not ok i'll edit it out.)
If the XB1 won by 200k, with all the promotion and bundles and money lost on Microsofts part, it still wouldn't even make up the 1/5 of the gap. It wouldn't even make up the ground lost in September alone.
That's not to say that 800k+ or whatever for the XB1 wouldn't be great for it, it's just that you shouldn't compare it to the PS4 if you're looking for a "huge win".
China is a non factor for both consoles
I think NPD numbers in USA shows only 1.5m lead for SNES.
I don't have any expectation of Xbox One be the first place, even in US.
If Xbox One sold well this november and and still managed to put 200k advantage on PS4, for me is a great month.
I think some people are underestimating the PS4. It's not easy to sell 200k more and I don't think that happened.
Again, I don't get this. Saying "it wouldn't really be nothing" IS "not looking at the whole picture". They would stop the gap from greatly increasing because November is the biggest month in console sales thus far. They also aren't doing this just to say they beat the PS4 -- they are trying to get as many people as they can before their 2015 exclusives/new IPs come out.
Reducing the NA gap in November (a month in which again, I think the PS4 would have been close to doubling the Xbox One in sales if the system didn't have a price drop) is pretty huge.
shinra-bansho
Member
FTFY.
These are the sales drivers. Scalebound isn't going to drive revenue for the Xbox division.
I agree. PS4 is more stronger on the market, so in this holidays season the normal trend is expand the lead. 1.1m could turn in ~2m difference quickly.
Microsoft avoid this and actually reduce the gap is a great achievement and gives momentum for 2015.
Suikoguy
I whinny my fervor lowly, for his length is not as great as those of the Hylian war stallions
Correct, only if by rare chance Scalebound becomes a runaway hit. Always possible, but unlikely..
Yeah, its not going to sell big numbers but it diversifies the portfolio. MS will always have their big hitters to drive sales and hopefully the smaller titles keep plodding along and making themselves a nice, loyal fanbase.
Suikoguy
I whinny my fervor lowly, for his length is not as great as those of the Hylian war stallions
You are ignoring that they had to take a loss to make this happen. The division is not being given a blank check anymore.
If the price goes back up, monthly sales may be hilariously lopsided.
I agree. New IPS/exclusives (somewhat) don't really make a big differrence. Just look at SO. Its all about multiplats, and I believe the ps4 already cemented itself as the go to console for them just like the 360 was over the ps3.
FunkyPajamas
Member
Just told the Missus to go to her parent's place for the night.
TONIGHT WE DINE IN PD.
Get it? IN-PD. NPD. Get it? Guys?
TONIGHT WE DINE IN PD.
Get it? IN-PD. NPD. Get it? Guys?
I don't think the price will go back, maybe bundles will be $399, but the standalone console will remain $349.
AstuteClass
Banned
And Sony should just come out and say something like, "After Black Friday, PS4 still the biggest selling current gen console in NA!" because they'll have sold more.
I don't see it. It's going to be an anomaly based on near-clearance prices. That's not sustainable or desirable.
The bolded is fine. I don't doubt that the XB1 sold very very well this month and it's great that they can expand the userbase. But other than being able to give a nice PR statement, winning the month by 100-200k doesn't mean much for the "console war". Especially with all the promotion they did and how much money they probably bled to achieve that, when the PS4 was able to pull a lead like this by just doing a regular bundle with Destiny in September.
Now if this really is a turning point, then it's another story, I give you that. But if it's just a one-off month and PS4 goes back to winning December and the biggest part of 2015, I really think it means nothing.
Super_Cobra
Member
May NeoGaf have mercy on our souls and enough servers so it won't crash later today.
The beginning of the end is here.
The beginning of the end is here.
shinra-bansho
Member
Point wasn't so much about the importance of exclusives or not, although the pedestal they're raised to on here greatly outweighs their actual mass market importance I imagine.
Point was that neither Sony or Microsoft's strategy is premised on trying to build a base to sell their own properties. They want their internal products to sell well and reap a return sure particularly tentpole brands like Halo, Gran Turismo, etc. But their business model is built upon creating a viable and conducive platform for other content producers and reaping the royalties - because that's where the money is for them - their own internal studios are largely an activity towards that end.
Point was that neither Sony or Microsoft's strategy is premised on trying to build a base to sell their own properties. They want their internal products to sell well and reap a return sure particularly tentpole brands like Halo, Gran Turismo, etc. But their business model is built upon creating a viable and conducive platform for other content producers and reaping the royalties - because that's where the money is for them - their own internal studios are largely an activity towards that end.
Agreed. MS will have brought forward a ton of buyers which will inflate their Nov/Dec numbers but risk them being left very flat going into 2015. I'm not convinced they'll have any momentum to carry through the first half at least - almost no first party content and I think only one marketing deal (now that W3 slipped) Vs lots of Sony first party games and third party exclusive marketing partnerships.
SlipperyMoose
Member
So much damage control in this thread
Scully Scully Scoo
Member
i just want to see how much halo sold, is the series as relevant as it was
And we don't even have the numbers yet!
There isn't any damage to control yet. Imma keep this thread open 'cause this seems to be the big event of the day. Is anyone even interested in the Wii U numbers for November?
SEGAvangelist
Member
I was just about to say the same. The damage control on all sides is getting pretty nuts. Hehe. Tonight is going to be awesome.
Aquamarine
Member
Is this the longest NPD Predictions thread ever?
I think it is...does this mean the NPD thread is going to be massive?
Maybe if the results are interesting...
We'll find out in 5 hours. ;-)
I think it is...does this mean the NPD thread is going to be massive?
Maybe if the results are interesting...
We'll find out in 5 hours. ;-)
Super_Cobra
Member
What damage control?
Where is the damage?
Vita won, didn't it?
That's the thing. I highly doubt they care much about the overall "console war" right now. We are still in the early part of the gen and simply reducing the gap that's already there + getting a ton of people into this current gen who were planning on waiting for another 1-2 years puts the system in a much better position for 2015.
Can't see PS4 winning December... At least not yet. If anything, I would even go as far as to say that I feel more confident that the Xbox One will take December than I am for it winning November.
SlipperyMoose
Member
Pre damage control would probably be more accurate. If this console only outsells this console by this much it doesn't count, etc.
Yeah, they want more sales for those third party games but they definitely also want more sales for their new IPs coming out soon too. They want them to become new franchises for Xbox and that will only happen if those games get good sales.
For example, the deals they have created for November/December has put Quantum Break (a game that I think will be coming out before Holiday 2015) in a much better position to do well in sales.