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[jimbo]

I don't think it's a matter of IF about Wii sales in January, as long as Nintendo has been constantly shipping the same numbers, and hasn't hit some kind of a supply problem. these past 2 weeks. The Wii is nowhere to be found, and so Nintendo is still going through that phase of selling everything it can put out there, so as long as shipments remain steady, they should have another great month, and should easily outsell the 360 and PS3 this month.

I've said it awhile back, that February will probably be the first month after all the madness and supply issues get sorted out and it will be the first month that will give us a good idea of what's going on in the market. It may indeed even take until March if the Wii keeps selling it out into february too. But at least the PS3 and 360 should be on "even" terms come february. If not this month. It seems PS3 is already easy to find if you want one, and it may become widely available with stock everywhere before January ends.

 

[soundwave05]

I'm pretty sure that if the Wii performs as well as the N64 did in the U.S., they will be happier then a pig in shit. Thats 20million alone just in the States.

I think its pretty much a given that the Wii is going to outperform the Gamecube in Japan, and just between those two countries it could blow away the Gamecubes numbers.

If Europe really embraces the Wii, it could be a massive success.

It's all about the next 4months in my opinion. Trends will become set.

(I know what happened with the DS, but this is the home console realm, and it would seem opinion is different here)

I do think the Wii can track closer to the N64 in North America for sure. It reminds me more of the N64 actually than the GameCube as far as the US market goes.

The first thing most people noticed about both machines when they were put infront of them were the controllers as well. In Japan and Europe it should do better than the GC or N64 quite comfortably.

 

[Krowley]

This wouldn't really be that surprising to me... If you had told me this in october, i'll admit that I would have been a little shocked, but i think it's been rather obvious that wii has become a nation wide craze this christmas.

The only surprising thing would be that they shipped that many. I personaly remain unconviced that they've shipped that many wii's. We'll see when the NPD comes out.

The only thing that's certain? They could have sold many more than they shipped.

WARNING! LONG POST AHEAD.

<snip>

.

Just wanted to say that this was a very good post... This is exactly why the price arguments get confused all the time. Microsoft and Sony have launched in a range puts them beyond the publics preset idea of what an acceptable console price is. As the price decreases, the market can expand for 360 and ps3. In the meantime, wii is almost dancing with itself while the others play to a (comparitivley) niche market.

The big problem for MS and Sony is the time factor... The longer it takes them to get below 300, the more market share nintendo can potentialy grab and that could lead to a big market shift in terms of 3rd party development, which could help the wii stay competitive even after the other two get below the 300 dollar barrier.

It's almost like nintendo has a headstart in a way. Even though they didn't launch first, they will be the only console with a mainstream price for an undetermined period of time. MS only needs to drop 100 bucks off the current core system to start playing on a more even field, but sony..... they may never get very far below 300 dollars.

Nintendo could still screw up though. All the ingredients are there for a screw up on one level or another.

Edit// They've definitly made some mistakes with this system. It's a little too underpowered, even for it's price range... There may not be quite enough buttons for certain kinds of gameplay... The internet is a little shoddy right now. They launched without any online games... They made a few errors.

 

[KINGMOKU]

I don't think it's a matter of IF about Wii sales in January, as long as Nintendo has been constantly shipping the same numbers, and hasn't hit some kind of a supply problem. these past 2 weeks. The Wii is nowhere to be found, and so Nintendo is still going through that phase of selling everything it can put out there, so as long as shipments remain steady, they should have another great month, and should easily outsell the 360 and PS3 this month.

I've said it awhile back, that February will probably be the first month after all the madness and supply issues get sorted out and it will be the first month that will give us a good idea of what's going on in the market. It may indeed even take until March if the Wii keeps selling it out into february too. But at least the PS3 and 360 should be on "even" terms come february. If not this month. It seems PS3 is already easy to find if you want one, and it may become widely available with stock everywhere before January ends.

One things for sure, the Wii wont have to have a big month to beat both the N64, and Gamecube. The highest was the N64 around 170k its first January, and the Gamecube well under that.

The next 4months. The tell-tale sign.

 

[soundwave05]

Oh I think the 3rd party shake up is already going on behind the scenes big time. I suspect you will hear about a lot more PS3-only stuff being multiplatform and more Wii support from 3rd parties.

Everything from E3 2006 onwards has thrown third parties for a big loop I would imagine. A lot of them are probably scrambling right now to keep up with a market that's become dramatically unpredictable.

In the past, I think when in doubt, developers just went with the "well put it on the Playstation" mantra.

 

[KINGMOKU]

Oh I think the 3rd party shake up is already going on behind the scenes big time. I suspect you will hear about a lot more PS3-only stuff being multiplatform and more Wii support from 3rd parties.

Everything from E3 2006 onwards has thrown third parties for a big loop I would imagine. A lot of them are probably scrambling right now to keep up with a market that's become dramatically unpredictable.

I agree, and I really think that we could see a third-party get rich off of that. It may be UBI soft, but it could be an unknown player right now, that rockets to success.

I would love to be a fly on the wall of these game companies right now, who have had easy as hell choices to make for the past 5 years.

Start with a PS2 game, and go from there.

Now you almost have to dedicate a team to one of the consoles, as they differ so wildly.

 

[soundwave05]

IMO watch for EA in 2007 ... I think they could make a fortune off the Wii.

Their Wii sports games will be tailored in 2007 even more specifically to the controller to try and get some of that Wii Sports audience to come their way. Also something like Harry Potter that uses the Wiimote as a wand/broom is going to equal big, big sales.

EA is also smart in that they've already started to dedicate specific studios just for Wii development.

 

[citrus lump]

I suspect you will hear about a lot more PS3-only stuff being multiplatform and more Wii support from 3rd parties.

The problem with more Wii support is that traditional games don't play well on it. I'd hate to see a market made up entirely of mini games and nintendoddities.

 

[darscot]

Oh I think the 3rd party shake up is already going on behind the scenes big time. I suspect you will hear about a lot more PS3-only stuff being multiplatform and more Wii support from 3rd parties.

Everything from E3 2006 onwards has thrown third parties for a big loop I would imagine. A lot of them are probably scrambling right now to keep up with a market that's become dramatically unpredictable.

In the past, I think when in doubt, developers just went with the "well put it on the Playstation" mantra.

I've got a few friends at EA and I know for a fact that they blew Wii launch because they had no idea it would be popular until E3. They were going bare bones Wii support until E3 then they realized it was going to be big but just couldn't get stuff ready in time. Its pretty funny in hindsight I expect a lot of EA games will sell more on Wii then the PS3 or 360, which is a complete reversal. Why would you by Tiger Woods Golf on any other system?

 

[soundwave05]

The problem with more Wii support is that traditional games don't play well on it. I'd hate to see a market made up entirely of mini games and nintendoddities.

Depends. I still think someone could make a great FPS on it, but other possibilities are just begging to be made here. Star Wars Lightsaber game, Harry Potter game, etc. etc. A lot of the Wii 3rd party stuff is dodgy, but I think in large part because most of that stuff wasn't even in development prior to 2006. Sports games I think can be a big part of the Wii's success, oddly enough.

The cold, hard truth here is that Sony may be looking at being stuck in no.3 for North America for at least a long time. At least through 2007 I think.

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

One things for sure, the Wii wont have to have a big month to beat both the N64, and Gamecube. The highest was the N64 around 170k its first January, and the Gamecube well under that.

I'm curious what your source is for the N64 numbers? Even before the recent NPD probation, I only regularly saw lists of PS2 and on.

 

[citrus lump]

Why would you by Tiger Woods Golf on any other system?

because it doesn't look like shit?

 

[Krowley]

I agree, and I really think that we could see a third-party get rich off of that. It may be UBI soft, but it could be an unknown player right now, that rockets to success.

I would love to be a fly on the wall of these game companies right now, who have had easy as hell choices to make for the past 5 years.

Start with a PS2 game, and go from there.

Now you almost have to dedicate a team to one of the consoles, as they differ so wildly.

Oh yeah.. that's another wii advantage that got a lot of talk back when wii was announced, but hasn't gotten that much mention latley..

It's not port friendly with the 360/ps3, so you can't use it like the ps2. If you want to sell to the wii market, you almost have to make an exclusive. The bigger the wii market gets, the more compelling that becomes. You can still go after the ps2 market right now and sell to the wii market, but in the long term, that won't be viable. So you end up with a situation where wii has tons of exclusives while 360 and ps3 both have a similar game pool, making the choice between them less distinct.

That could actually work both ways for nintendo (it could also be a big disadvantage), but if they get off to a really good start over the next year or so, it will work in their favor.

 

[Grecco]

The problem with more Wii support is that traditional games don't play well on it. I'd hate to see a market made up entirely of mini games and nintendoddities.

Zelda, Red Steel, DBZ Budokai, Madden, and Exite Truck are "traditional games" and play well enough with the Wii mote.

 

[Branduil]

because it doesn't look like shit?

 

[citrus lump]

Zelda, Red Steel, DBZ Budokai, Madden, and Exite Truck are "traditional games" and play well enough with the Wii mote.

Bullshit on Red Steel and Madden. Add in the other two FPS that control poorly and stuff like Splinter Cell and you have a controller that doesn't work so well on traditional games.

 

[darscot]

because it doesn't look like shit?

LOL, go easy there drama queen I think the Wii can pull of Golf. How dense to you have to be to think people will prefer eye candy in a Golf game over a Wii golf swing.

 

[Chiggs]

I was skimming through the last few pages and saw that some people are predicting that the Wii will sell 120m units during its lifetime. Just curious, does that include Rev. 2 which has HDTV support?

 

[citrus lump]

LOL, go easy there drama queen I think the Wii can pull of Golf. How dense to you have to be to think people will prefer eye candy in a Golf game over a Wii golf swing.

Dense enough to want to play videogame golf over the real thing?

 

[Branduil]

Bullshit on Red Steel and Madden. Add in the other two FPS that control poorly and stuff like Splinter Cell and you have a controller that doesn't work so well on traditional games.

CoD 3 controls better than any dual analogue FPS I have ever played.

Haven't played Madden yet but its controls have gotten a lot of praise.

 

[Lobster]

Dense enough to want to play videogame golf over the real thing?

Ye sure..Im gonna go out on a rainy day to play golf.

 

[citrus lump]

CoD 3 controls better than any dual analogue FPS I have ever played.

what

 

[Krowley]

The problem with more Wii support is that traditional games don't play well on it. I'd hate to see a market made up entirely of mini games and nintendoddities.

IF the wii wins the market war, people will figure out ways to make traditional games work well..

A lot of traditional PC genre's have a lot of potential due to cursor support, so you may also see PC oriented genre's invading the console space. Some of these genre's are very appealing to the hardcore. So while the wii makes certain console genre's less feasible (like traditional fighters) it makes other genre's like RTS, P&C adventures and god games much more viable than they've even been on a console. FPS could also still end up being big with the right implimentation and a game designed around the wii's limitations.

 

[darscot]

Dense enough to want to play videogame golf over the real thing?

What are you on about your not making any sense. You can't even troll worth shit.

 

[soundwave05]

People really need to seperate their personal opinions from market reality. It's really ridiculous.

When people talk about movie box office they don't gauge it on their own personal preferences, lol. I think there's a few people on GAF who have a problem seperating one from the other.

I thought Pirates of the Caribbean 2 was a mess of a movie ... that doesn't mean that I didn't bank on it being the no.1 box office movie of the year.

 

[citrus lump]

What are you on about your not making any sense. You can't even troll worth shit.

Yeah, I misread that.

 

[Lobster]

what

It is.

1.Its close to KB/M
2.Gives an option to turn off dynamic aiming..=KB/M controls on Wii.

 

[AdmiralViscen]

Two months ago: "That low price didn't help the GameCube."
Now: "Wii is only selling well because it's cheap."

 

[citrus lump]

It is.

1.Its close to KB/M
2.Gives an option to turn off dynamic aiming..=KB/M controls on Wii.

Your name tells me you might be slightly biased.....

And if it had the best FPS console controls ever, it' probably would've gotten better scores.

 

[Souldriver]

because it doesn't look like shit?

Nice comeback. Close this thread down. Wii fails. Bad graphics.




I think there are a lot more possibilities to the controller than the obvious ones like light saber, magic wand, gun, ... These are all first-person view concepts, there must be others we aren't thinking of.

 

[Branduil]

Your name tells me you might be slightly biased.....

And if it had the best FPS console controls ever, it' probably would've gotten better scores.

It got middling scores because the game itself isn't great, it had no multiplayer, and mediocre graphics.

The actual controls are great.

 

[citrus lump]

It got middling scores because the game itself isn't great, it had no multiplayer, and mediocre graphics.

The actual controls are great.

But better than any dual analog FPS? Definitely not.

And that's not an opinion, it's a fact.

 

[Branduil]

But better than any dual analog FPS? Definitely not.

And that's not an opinion, it's a fact.

:lol Joke character confirmed, I guess.

 

[citrus lump]

:lol Joke character confirmed, I guess.

I'd be willing to bet you're in the minority on this one.

 

[GhaleonEB]

But better than any dual analog FPS? Definitely not.

And that's not an opinion, it's a fact.

In your opinion, that is a fact, yes.

 

[d[-_-]b]

:lol Joke character confirmed, I guess.

OT: Dynamic Avatar Hax?
Lol I kinda figured from his first few posts but you guys make this topic fun.

 

[ElectricBlue187]

Note: "estimate" is another word for "guess"

 

[.dmc]

I was skimming through the last few pages and saw that some people are predicting that the Wii will sell 120m units during its lifetime..

Anyone who thinks that really isn't thinking very hard. I think Wii could be huge for Nintendo but I don't think that even in a best case scenario it will sell more than 60million lifetime. All the hardcore complaints about graphics + power won't stop Wii from being a runaway success, but there are plenty of limitations with Wii that mean it'll never be Playstation sized. I think it'd help if GAF got it's head around the idea that this gen isn't going to be anything like the two previous generations.

 

[elostyle]

This is really going places.

 

[soundwave05]

Anyone who thinks that really isn't thinking very hard. I think Wii could be huge for Nintendo but I don't think that even in a best case scenario it will sell more than 60million lifetime. All the hardcore complaints about graphics + power won't stop Wii from being a runaway success, but there are plenty of limitations with Wii that mean it'll never be Playstation sized. I think it'd help if GAF got it's head around the idea that this gen isn't going to be anything like the two previous generations.

Yup, pretty much spot on. GAF is one stubborn bitch when it comes to accepting anything new on top of that :lol

60-70 million Wiis is a definite possibility though. Sony/MS have given Nintendo a clear opening, it's just up to them to capitalize on it now.

 

[KINGMOKU]

But better than any dual analog FPS? Definitely not.

And that's not an opinion, it's a fact.

Great discussion going untill you popped in just to turn it into another graphics wii-thread.

Cut it out already man. Seriously, wtf. Are you bored?

 

[Branduil]

I'd be willing to bet you're in the minority on this one.

Most people prefer analog aiming to direct aiming? Now I know you're joking.

 

[teh_pwn]

But better than any dual analog FPS? Definitely not.

And that's not an opinion, it's a fact.

Dual analog FPS, wtf. Keyboard and mouse. Wiimote should be nice too.

 

[KINGMOKU]

Excellent. Now the discussion can move forward again.

Spoiler

I have to say, that was fast

 

[Dave Long]

This might need a new thread, but Gary Whitta of the Next-Gen podcast posted on another board that a source claims the numbers should look something like this for December...

Wii: 1.5m
X360: 1.3m
PS3: 600K

 

[KINGMOKU]

This might need a new thread, but Gary Whitta of the Next-Gen podcast posted on another board that a source claims the numbers should look something like this for December...

Wii: 1.5m
X360: 1.3m
PS3: 600K

I dont think that those numbers for the Wii are even possible. Nintendo didnt ship that many. Unless they exceeded thier shipments?


That would be insano. Do you have a link to said forum?

 

[Branduil]

This might need a new thread, but Gary Whitta of the Next-Gen podcast posted on another board that a source claims the numbers should look something like this for December...

Wii: 1.5m
X360: 1.3m
PS3: 600K

The Wii is going to ruin my Dec NPD predictions.

 

[Avutta1978]

Bullshit on Red Steel and Madden. Add in the other two FPS that control poorly and stuff like Splinter Cell and you have a controller that doesn't work so well on traditional games.

its called shitty programming, I i don't think you have played any of those games.

Red steel is fun, but the problem fromthe game is not the controller. the game was rushed. the controller works fine and you can truly see the potential if done right. madden is great and probably the best of the madden fanchise of last year. So stop spitting out shit out of your ass when you have nothing to go by. the controller works. developers have to get used to it and work it out effectively.

 

[Mrbob]

Locally, the Nintendo Wii is still an extremely hot commodity. Sold out everywhere and tons of people looking for the sysem.

I still don't see view the X360 and Wii competing head to head though. Even if X360 only does 40 million overall in the next 5 years (which is still a decent step up over xbox) and Wii 60 million, I guess MS can comfort themselves and be able to sleep at night knowing they rake in 3 billion dollars + profit a quarter from Windows.

 

[Dave Long]

I dont think that those numbers for the Wii are even possible. Nintendo didnt ship that many. Unless they exceeded thier shipments?


That would be insano. Do you have a link to said forum?

http://www.quartertothree.com/game-talk/showpost.php?p=857569&postcount=437

I probably just sent Tom Chick's January bandwidth bill through the roof.