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[Souldriver]

I dunno man almost 500K sold in feb with no releases of significant value. I can only imagine it would go well beyond the 500K mark

Yes, I know, there will be a lot of DS Lites sold. But I just think it is too bad we won't see the full potential it has, because it will most definately sell out.
I just wish I could know how many DS Lites would be sold if there was unlimited supply.


When does the pokébomb hit?

 

[AniHawk]

When does the pokébomb hit?

April 22.

 

[Souldriver]

April 22.

And when does NPD stop tracking April? In other words: how many days of sales will be counted into the sales numbers?

 

[Kiljaro]

The DS is going to ****ing EXPLODE when Pokémon Diamond/Pearl drops.

 

[vanguardian1]

April 22.

So we should make sure the PSP's grave marker is ready for that date, eh?

The inscription should say "Short but flashy life ended too early by little imaginary monsters." :lol











This is a joke, btw. ^_^

 

[AniHawk]

This is a joke, btw. ^_^

Oh. I get jokes.

 

[Link]

Games like Zelda TP, while interesting, just don't do my $2,000 HDTV justice.

Posts like this make me sad.

 

[ylvis_]

The thing is, Pokemon D/P actually didn't move as many DS's as we had predicted when it launched in Japan last year. The DS sold around 270k I think, the week Pokemon came out. Not bad, but a lot of people predicted over 500k DS's sold that week.

So do guys think that the same will happen in the US or will Pokemon D/P just sell a buttload of DS's?

 

[Brak]

The thing is, Pokemon D/P actually didn't move as many DS's as we had predicted when it launched in Japan last year. The DS sold around 270k I think, the week Pokemon came out. Not bad, but a lot of people predicted over 500k DS's sold that week.

So do guys think that the same will happen in the US or will Pokemon D/P just sell a buttload of DS's?

Supply. The DS could sell a million in one week in Japan if they could find the supply.

The DS is basically encountering the same issue in NA now, so the DS will basically sell as much as they can ship.

 

[AniHawk]

So do guys think that the same will happen in the US or will Pokemon D/P just sell a buttload of DS's?

Yes. Pent-up demand + the biggest handheld franchise ever = huge sales. The GBA sold very well before Ruby/Sapphire hit 4 years ago, but once RS was released, sales jumped from over 200k a month to well over 300k a month and didn't slow down until the DS became popular.

 

[Dragona Akehi]

The thing is, Pokemon D/P actually didn't move as many DS's as we had predicted when it launched in Japan last year. The DS sold around 270k I think, the week Pokemon came out. Not bad, but a lot of people predicted over 500k DS's sold that week.

It was also sold out. The DS that is. It's been in a state of constant shortages for the past year and a half.

So do guys think that the same will happen in the US or will Pokemon D/P just sell a buttload of DS's?

Shortages.

 

[ylvis_]

Ah, damn, I forgot the DS was at that time also supply-constrained. Oh well, I hope Nintendo ship a lot of DS's in April then, 'cause it has potensial to sell over 1 million that month.

April could be one of Nintendo's biggest months ever. Pokemon for the DS + I suspect Nintendo is holding a lot of Wii's for Super Paper Mario.

Edit: Anihawk: How has Wii shipments and DS shipments been so far this month compared to February? You work at store that sells games right?

 

[StingerNLG]

You lost credibilty when you started listing movie-tie-in shovelware as reasons for owning a console.

Here's the problem with that though. I own a Wii. And I'll admit it right here and now, it's not doing it for me. Sonic, Zelda, Wii Sports, ExciteTruck. None of those games are really doing much to keep me off my Xbox 360.

HOWEVER, my wife LOVES the Wii, and she's not a big gamer. And the games she's playing? Barnyard, Open Season, Ice Age 2.

If that wasn't enough, my 2 year old son Jacob loves to play Wii Sports Baseball. And he asks to play it by telling us he wants to "Play ball......swing, throw". And he goes for the Wiimote. And knows to put his hand through the strap. Smart kid.

See for yourself: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2OOvdFAAfc8

So even though I myself don't really care much for the Wii, and my playtime on it has been limited as opposed to my 360, the fact that the rest of my family plays it like they do made it more than worth owning.

 

[duk]

See for yourself: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2OOvdFAAfc8

That's really cute man!

 

[Link]

Edit: Anihawk: How has Wii shipments and DS shipments been so far this month compared to February? You work at store that sells games right?

Not that I work at a GS/EB, but I was in one the other day checking out some stuff, and a guy asked if they had any Wii's. The clerk told him they weren't expecting any until mid-April. So either he's talking about non-reserved units, or Nintendo is seriously short-changing GS/EB.

 

[vanguardian1]

I can't even recall how long the DS has been supply constrained in Japan.

Heck, the GAMES are supply constrained sometimes! :lol

 

[Monk]

Here's the problem with that though. I own a Wii. And I'll admit it right here and now, it's not doing it for me. Sonic, Zelda, Wii Sports, ExciteTruck. None of those games are really doing much to keep me off my Xbox 360.

HOWEVER, my wife LOVES the Wii, and she's not a big gamer. And the games she's playing? Barnyard, Open Season, Ice Age 2.

If that wasn't enough, my 2 year old son Jacob loves to play Wii Sports Baseball. And he asks to play it by telling us he wants to "Play ball......swing, throw". And he goes for the Wiimote. And knows to put his hand through the strap. Smart kid.

See for yourself: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2OOvdFAAfc8

So even though I myself don't really care much for the Wii, and my playtime on it has been limited as opposed to my 360, the fact that the rest of my family plays it like they do made it more than worth owning.

How long did you play Excite Truck for? I mean i normally dont like racing games but i love excite truck. I find it really hard to believe that someone would love Excite Truck after a couple of hours with it.

 

[Cooter]

I picked up Tiger Woods for Wii in my local Toys R Us and the clerk had some interesting things to say.

They are getting about 40-50 Wii's every Sunday and they are all sold out by about 2:00. They had 9 PS3's and apparently many customers have been returning them because they are overheating.

This is the second time I've been in this past month and both clerks hated the PS3. It was like it ran over their dog or something. Doesn't mean a thing but it's interesting nonetheless.

 

[CalMcRich]

Geez, if GBA sales are still this high and retails for what? 80 US dollars? How much profit do you think they make off each one?

I wish GAF had a GBAprintsdubloons.gif

 

[vasuba]

The thing is, Pokemon D/P actually didn't move as many DS's as we had predicted when it launched in Japan last year. The DS sold around 270k I think, the week Pokemon came out. Not bad, but a lot of people predicted over 500k DS's sold that week.

So do guys think that the same will happen in the US or will Pokemon D/P just sell a buttload of DS's?

important to consider as well aside ffrom potential shortages is that the GBA has been dead in japan a long time. it still sells insane in US. so the GBA people are gonna be starting to switch to get thier cocain.. poke fix

 

[Stumpokapow]

I can't even recall how long the DS has been supply constrained in Japan.

Heck, the GAMES are supply constrained sometimes! :lol

January 5th, 2006 was when the DS first sold out all through Japan. Nintendo issued a press release apologizing sincerely.

And I'm pretty sure that things were sold out on-and-off for the few months after then, at which point the DS became permanently sold out.

 

[ylvis_]

important to consider as well aside ffrom potential shortages is that the GBA has been dead in japan a long time. it still sells insane in US. so the GBA people are gonna be starting to switch to get thier cocain.. poke fix

That's a good point. I think how much the DS is going to sell in April is completely influenced by how many DS's Nintendo ships.

 

[StingerNLG]

That's really cute man!

Heh, thanks. He saw my wife and I playing it one day and said "I try.....I try". What amazes me is that he holds onto the controller!

How long did you play Excite Truck for? I mean i normally dont like racing games but i love excite truck. I find it really hard to believe that someone would love Excite Truck after a couple of hours with it.

It was a couple hours. I get the whole different control thing, but I just wasn't into it like I am other racing games.

 

[Deku]

Well for the record, I don't think it will be a 33/33/33 split.

It will be more even but I think the standard snowball effect will takehold once a leader becomes clear.

 

[sonycowboy]

February 2007 NPD Prediction Results (All but XBX and GCN)

1. pilonv1 - 218K
2. Chibbi Brady - 260K
3. Javy007 - 283K
4. donny2112 - 290K
5. DayShallCome - 298K
6. argon - 300K

Important note for future predictors:

1-23 in the rankings all had one thing in common. They all had predictions for the 7 main consoles. 68-97 (there were 97 entries ) also had one thing in common. None of them had complete predictions for all seven consoles.

Get the hint?


Congratulations, pilonv1!

DS Killed me. And PS2 hurt. Other than that I was pretty damn good.

My GBA, XBX, GCN were within 2k
My 360 & Wii were within 10k each
PSP I was off by 15k
Those 6 platforms I was only off by 36k.

PS3 I had lower than most (160k) and was off by 32k
PS2 I lowballed and got hurt by 65k
DS KILLED me for 245k discrepancy out of my 378k total discrepancy.

I had heard that DS was still supply constrained to a large extent.

DAMN YOU DS!!!

 

[Deku]

How would DS predictions kill you? Guesstimates aside, the January numbers were clearly the result of a shortage. Only the most deluded thought it reflected actual demand.

Unless you knew February was still going to be supply constrained, it would be a little obvious to expect a big jump in sales and that is excactly what happened. It's not exactly rocket science.

 

[Tobor]

Well for the record, I don't think it will be a 33/33/33 split.

It will be more even but I think the standard snowball effect will takehold once a leader becomes clear.

I'm thinking more a 45/40/15 myself. Nintendo, MS(either way in a virtual tie for first), Sony in the rear.

 

[GhaleonEB]

How would DS predictions kill you? Guesstimates aside, the January numbers were clearly the result of a shortage. Only the most deluded thought it reflected actual demand.

Unless you knew February was still going to be supply constrained, it would be a little obvious to expect a big jump in sales and that is excactly what happened. It's not exactly rocket science.

Almost no one expected half a million. January was a five-week month, February was a four week month. Increasing your prediction a bit from one month to the next was actually betting on a good increase in supply. Most people raised their estimate from January's actual. But to 500k? In 28 days? Absolutely nuts.

 

[sonycowboy]

How would DS kill you? Granted I made no predictions but the January numbers were clearly the result of a shortage. Only the most deluded thought it reflected actual demand.

Unless you knew February was still going to be supply constrained, it would be a little obvious to expect a big jump in sales and that is excactly what happened. It's not exactly rocket science.

I still couldn't find the damn thing in stores in February and I was dilligent in my channel checks. I guess it could have even been a good big bigger.

 

[Tobor]

How is Nintendo supposed to figure out where the market saturation point is on either system when every single unit instantly sells? It has to be a nightmare trying to predict where the back end of demand actually is.

 

[ghostlyjoe]

How is Nintendo supposed to figure out where the market saturation point is on either system when every single unit instantly sells? It has to be a nightmare trying to predict where the back end of demand actually is.

Sounds like a very pleasant nightmare.

 

[schuelma]

I still couldn't find the damn thing in stores in February and I was dilligent in my channel checks. I guess it could have even been a good big bigger.

amazon.com seems to have them every once in a while...that's how I got my black one last week.

 

[Chiggs]

I wonder when N'gai Croal will comment on Sony's shitty sales; or will he just rant and rave about the European launch?

 

[Tobor]

Sounds like a very pleasant nightmare.

"Nightmare" might have been a little overblown on my part. How about "noodle scratcher"?

 

[Deku]

I still couldn't find the damn thing in stores in February and I was dilligent in my channel checks. I guess it could have even been a good big bigger.

You're right. I'm not saying it was plentiful, I just think selling out is not the same as not having anything to sell at all, which is what happened in January and NOA said so.

 

[AniHawk]

Edit: Anihawk: How has Wii shipments and DS shipments been so far this month compared to February?

We got a shipment in two Thursdays ago, and that was meant to be our only shipment until the end of March or for March period. 3 Wiis, 5 DS Lites (2 white, 2 black, 1 pink). We get less Nintendo stuff than most chains though. I walked into a Best Buy early March and found about a dozen Wii remotes when our store had none (I was in there for something other than to see their stock of Wii remotes ).

 

[Barf_the_Mog]

So conservative Nintendo is content with a near constant sellout of the DS instead of running the risk of overproducing the system? Doesn't this policy hinder their ability to allocate large quantities of units to ship on certain dates throughout the three different territories? That is, they can stagger their game releases to benefit from certain country's holidays and such by distributing more units to one territory for short bursts, but they are unable to shift enough units for sustained global demand, such as Christmas.

 

[chibcicylist]

Such a cute video, stinger. Post more videos please! That one was too short. I wanna see your wifey do it too.

Damn, April is gonna be a big Nintendo month. Pokebomb indeed. Should I even mention that D/P is probably one of the more popular Pokemon games so far? It's almost at the same level as the original ones.

DS Killed me. And PS2 hurt. Other than that I was pretty damn good.

My GBA, XBX, GCN were within 2k
My 360 & Wii were within 10k each
PSP I was off by 15k
Those 6 platforms I was only off by 36k.

PS3 I had lower than most (160k) and was off by 32k
PS2 I lowballed and got hurt by 65k
DS KILLED me for 245k discrepancy out of my 378k total discrepancy.

I had heard that DS was still supply constrained to a large extent.

DAMN YOU DS!!!

You should be banned from participating anyway since you get insider knowledge! Unfair!:lol

So conservative Nintendo is content with a near constant sellout of the DS instead of running the risk of overproducing the system? Doesn't this policy hinder their ability to allocate large quantities of units to ship on certain dates throughout the three different territories? That is, they can stagger their game releases to benefit from certain country's holidays and such by distributing more units to one territory for short bursts, but they are unable to shift enough units for sustained global demand, such as Christmas.

That doesn't really matter if all your stuff is still selling out for a prolonged period of time even with very large supply. People are obviously not losing interest even if they get frustrated looking for one and can't find them on the shelves.

 

[LM4sure]

I've been out of town and just saw this. Wow! PS3 is not doing well at all. I thought the Wii would have done a bit better too. Must be due to supply constraints...

 

[StingerNLG]

Such a cute video, stinger. Post more videos please! That one was too short. I wanna see your wifey do it too.

I'm taking a chance and assuming you weren't poking mean-spirited fun at my family. That said he does have the attention span of a 2 year old, so getting much more than that wasn't very easy.

My wife on the other hand would simply kill me and video tape THAT for Youtube rather than let me film her and put her up there.

 

[KINGMOKU]

1999 graphics huh? I'm pretty sure if you saw Super Mario Galaxy screenshots in 1999, you would have crapped your pants.

See, none of the faboy jackoff stuff bothers me. It's asinine hyperbole that does. "1999 graphics" is such a ****ing stupid-ass statement to make, I'll switch it around.


I am so glad Nintendo is stomping a mud-hole into Microsoft, and Sony's ass, becuase if I had to put up with using the same ****ing controll scheme, that I've been using since 1994, I would have quit gaming. Thank god a company as forward thinking as Nintendo has taken the riens, and actually taken the time to upgrade the most important aspect of gaming, the controll, to the next level. Had this not been the case, can you imagine still swinging a bat in baseball with an analog stick, or button press?!?!?! Pathetic.


You see, by this example, the numbnuts out there, who say dumbass things about the Wii, can see just how stupid there statements are by contrast/comparison.


It doesnt matter if the Wii wins this console race by a massive margin. In 5 years, what seemed like a sure thing in Nintendo making the Wii2, could turn out to be something different, AND Nintendo could fall flat on thier faces. In this industry, unique from all others, you start from scratch every 5 years. You ever know whats going to happen.

 

[SoVos20]

Looks like wii supply issues could be over. I went to game stop today, and noticed they had at least 5 wiis available. The other day, when I was at best buy I say at least 20 wiis in a big pile.

 

[KINGMOKU]

Looks like wii supply issues could be over. I went to game stop today, and noticed they had at least 5 wiis available. The other day, when I was at best buy I say at least 20 wiis in a big pile.

:lol I'm sure they did. See, in your universe anything is possible.

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

So conservative Nintendo is content with a near constant sellout of the DS instead of running the risk of overproducing the system? Doesn't this policy hinder their ability to allocate large quantities of units to ship on certain dates throughout the three different territories? That is, they can stagger their game releases to benefit from certain country's holidays and such by distributing more units to one territory for short bursts, but they are unable to shift enough units for sustained global demand, such as Christmas.

Several times over the last year there have been announcements that they've increased production by several hundred thousand each month. They haven't been doing nothing, and should now be at the point of producing 30 million in a year. Is it a problem for Christmas? Well, I thought it would be last year, but they still sold much more of it than any other system, so it could've been worse.

And when does NPD stop tracking April? In other words: how many days of sales will be counted into the sales numbers?

I believe this is how things go for the rest of the year:

Mar: March 4 - April 7
Apr: April 8 - May 5
May: May 6 - June 2
June: June 3 - July 7
Jul: July 8 - August 4
Aug: August 5 - September 1
Sep: September 2 - October 6
Oct: October 7 - November 3
Nov: November 4 - December 1
Dec: December 2 - January 5

Is that right? It seems really weird to have an entire week of April in the March period and an entire week of July in the June period, but I don't see where I've made a mistake.

Anyway, if I'm right there then Pokémon D/P will be out for a full half of the tracking period, 14 days.

Looks like wii supply issues could be over. I went to game stop today, and noticed they had at least 5 wiis available. The other day, when I was at best buy I say at least 20 wiis in a big pile.

Hey, SoVos20 is back. Interesting times.

 

[Zynx]

Those who think PS3 will suddenly rise due to HDTV adoption or graphics differential truly don't understand why the masses are buying and not buying. I'll revisit these posts from now 3 years in the future.

Looks like wii supply issues could be over. I went to game stop today, and noticed they had at least 5 wiis available. The other day, when I was at best buy I say at least 20 wiis in a big pile.

You're the most credible poster in the thread. I believe you!

 

[KINGMOKU]

Looks like wii supply issues could be over. I went to game stop today, and noticed they had at least 5 wiis available. The other day, when I was at best buy I say at least 20 wiis in a big pile.

Know what? Screw this. I challange you to go back, and take pictures to prove it. I could care less if you did or you didnt, I just want to see if your capable of telling the truth.

Your posts are so crazy, and filled with insanity, I want to see these, "Wii's in the wild" with my own eyes.

Now to wait to see what his reply is...

 

[WickedAngel]

Looks like wii supply issues could be over. I went to game stop today, and noticed they had at least 5 wiis available. The other day, when I was at best buy I say at least 20 wiis in a big pile.

:lol You'll last long.

 

[jamesinclair]

February 2007 NPD Prediction Results (All but XBX and GCN)

1. pilonv1 - 218K
2. Chibbi Brady - 260K
3. Javy007 - 283K
4. donny2112 - 290K
5. DayShallCome - 298K
6. argon - 300K

Important note for future predictors:

1-23 in the rankings all had one thing in common. They all had predictions for the 7 main consoles. 68-97 (there were 97 entries ) also had one thing in common. None of them had complete predictions for all seven consoles.

Get the hint?


Congratulations, pilonv1!

Can you please substitute my DS prediction for my Xbox prediction?

I nailed Xbox but failed horribly with the DS

Oh and axe my PS2 for GC. I nailed GC as well.

(Gap closing FTW)

 

[DayShallCome]

February 2007 NPD Prediction Results (All but XBX and GCN)

1. pilonv1 - 218K
2. Chibbi Brady - 260K
3. Javy007 - 283K
4. donny2112 - 290K
5. DayShallCome - 298K
6. argon - 300K

Important note for future predictors:

1-23 in the rankings all had one thing in common. They all had predictions for the 7 main consoles. 68-97 (there were 97 entries ) also had one thing in common. None of them had complete predictions for all seven consoles.

Get the hint?


Congratulations, pilonv1!

Hmm, I guess I over shot on 360 (I have to stop assuming that great software sales for 360 = increase in hardware sale -> the 55k rule seems to be pretty much always correct for this console in normal months).

I had the PS2 doing better than expected, but ~300k is pretty amazing for a console. What amazing legs.

And damn you DS. WTF.

 

[Avrum]

Know what? Screw this. I challange you to go back, and take pictures to prove it. I could care less if you did or you didnt, I just want to see if your capable of telling the truth.

Your posts are so crazy, and filled with insanity, I want to see these, "Wii's in the wild" with my own eyes.

Now to wait to see what his reply is...

You should offer the stipulation that he shouldn't go to Toys R Us tomorrow since they are having another Sunday sale and having more Wii's up for sale as well. Wouldn't be hard to pull a switch on ya and be like...READ AND WEEP GOOD SIR!