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[pswii60]

Especially you.

No.

 

[AniHawk]

No.

Don't argue with me, boy.

 

[Branduil]

It's only a matter of time before Sony sell more consoles. Judging a success is a matter of years, not 4 months. Nintendo, Sony and Microsoft are all placing pieces on the chessboard and advantages vs. disadvantages may or may not mean anything for the final chapter of this game.

Several years ago, at a secretive Sony board meeting:

Howard Stringer: Should we make the Playstation 3 a competitive, $300 console, and plan it's release for late 2005?

Ken Kutaragi: NO!

HS: Why not?

KK: Because that's what they'd be expecting us to do.

 

[Xavien]

extremely powerful consoles != only better graphics

That is all.

I have yet to see a game on the PS3 and 360 in which this statement holds true.

 

[Bearillusion]

Sure and in some years everyone will have a Mercedes because it's so awesome.
Price is a factor, no matter how good your product is.

The price of a brand new merc won't half in price in a few years.

 

[AlternativeUlster]

My condolences.

Spoiler

I have 8.

Me too. Odd enough, though, it seems like I am buying Gamecube games to have more games to play on it. Also, there are still some more Wii games I want to buy too.

 

[linsivvi]

I have yet to see a game on the PS3 and 360 in which this statement holds true.

People are overestimating the so-called advanced "AI" and physics. As if the computer opponents can analysis the way the human players play and improve or adjust their style accordingly.

 

[P90]

The price of a brand new merc won't half in price in a few years.

With BR are you sure this will happen for the PS3? I think it will take 4 to 5 years. Of course, if PS3 sales continue as they have and developers start sending games to Wii or 360 instead of or in addition to the PS3, then Sony may have to bite that bullet to try to survive. I would rahter have a PS 2.5 with waggle, personally.

 

[marc^o^]

The price of a brand new merc won't half in price in a few years.

We agree then, PS3 sales will be phenomenal when Sony halves the price. Until then it remains a high end machine out of reach of the mass market.

 

[Cheerilee]

.

 

[thingonaspring]

the ps2 is still selling so well so i don't think there going to budge on a price drop

 

[ylvis_]

The Wii has in my opinion already a lot of good/great games that isn't out for the PS3, nor the 360.

- Zelda TP
- Wario Ware
- Rayman RR
- Trauma Center
- SSX Blur
- Sonic
- Tony Hawk's Downhill Jam (PS3 and 360 has Project 8 though)
- Dragon Ball Z 2
- Metal Slug Anthology
- Super Swing Golf
- Wii Sports
- Elebits
- ExciteTruck
- Super Mokey Ball BB
- Some good licenced titles that has recieved good scores like Ice-Age 2 and Chicken Little

+ Some good titles that you also find on the PS3 or the 360; Madden 07, Carbon, Marvel Ultimate Alliance, CoD3, Tiger Woods 07.

Just underlining how stupid it is to say that the Wii has bad library.

 

[P90]

We agree then, PS3 sales will be phenomenal when Sony halves the price. Until then it remains a high end machine out of reach of the mass market.

Touche! marc^o^ for the debate win.

 

[StingerNLG]

This could be a reason as to why they are holding at $400, they don't want Sony to jump with them. It's feasible.

Or they know that Sony can't drop the price and so they aren't in any big hurry to do it either. Why take profit off they don't have to?

 

[andthebeatgoeson]

Fun facts:

Nintendo beat Electronic Arts as the No.1 software publisher for the month. EA has been No. 1 for as long as anyone can remember.

Wii's cumulative tie ratio is almost as high after 4 months as the 360 after 16 months on the market, if you include Wii Sports. The average Wii owner has purchased almost 5 games. I am just amazed that the average person is finding 5 games worth buying, but they are.

Do we have some hard data on that? I guess that would involve numbers from NPD but surely we could have numbers from like every 3-4 months over the past year. Oh, are you including Wii Sports? It just invites the trolls.

 

[RubberJohnny]

- Some good licenced titles that has recieved good scores like Ice-Age 2 and Chicken Little

You lost credibilty when you started listing movie-tie-in shovelware as reasons for owning a console.

 

[pswii60]

The Wii has in my opinion already a lot of good/great games that isn't out for the PS3, nor the 360.

- Zelda TP
- Wario Ware
- Rayman RR
- Trauma Center
- SSX Blur
- Sonic
- Tony Hawk's Downhill Jam (PS3 and 360 has Project 8 though)
- Dragon Ball Z 2
- Metal Slug Anthology
- Super Swing Golf
- Wii Sports
- Elebits
- ExciteTruck
- Super Mokey Ball BB
- Some good licenced titles that has recieved good scores like Ice-Age 2 and Chicken Little

+ Some good titles that you also find on the PS3 or the 360; Madden 07, Carbon, Marvel Ultimate Alliance, CoD3, Tiger Woods 07.

Just underlining how stupid it is to say that the Wii has bad library.

You're new to GAF aren't you.

The PS3 has in my opinion already a lot of good/great games that isn't out for the Wii, nor the 360.

The 360 has in my opinion already a lot of good/great games that isn't out for the Wii, nor the PS3.

 

[CrunchyB]

You lost credibilty when you started listing movie-tie-in shovelware as reasons for owning a console.

It isn't nearly as bad as mentioning Home or Folding@home though

 

[Deleted member 1235]

It's only a matter of time before Sony sell more consoles. Judging a success is a matter of years, not 4 months. Nintendo, Sony and Microsoft are all placing pieces on the chessboard and advantages vs. disadvantages may or may not mean anything for the final chapter of this game.

I thought historically, winning consoles stayed winning consoles.

 

[duk]

It's only a matter of time before Sony sell more consoles. Judging a success is a matter of years, not 4 months. Nintendo, Sony and Microsoft are all placing pieces on the chessboard and advantages vs. disadvantages may or may not mean anything for the final chapter of this game.

the console that wins the war is decided way before the 'final chapter'

 

[Cheebs]

Console races tend to be decided rather early within the first year or two.

 

[brain_stew]

Perhaps, but Wii Sports and Wii Play, bundled with the Console and Controller skew things significantly

They're still games putting cash into Nintendo's coffers, the Wii would not cost $250 if it wasn't bundled with a game, and a Wii remote does not warrant a $50 price tag on its own.

You're also forgetting about the virtual console, sure "bundled" items may skew the figure one way but it would not crazy to think that the lack of VC sales tracking is skewing it another.

I've bought 11 VC titles for instance and I know I'm not alone and those games represent almost 100% profit.

 

[elostyle]

Yeah they already have to make up a year to the 360 and so far the gap keeps widening everymonth instead of shrinking. Even if the PS3 will emerge with better sales consistenly, it will take a looooong time to catch up or even surpass.

 

[brain_stew]

Yeah they already have to make up a year to the 360 and so far the gap keeps widening everymonth instead of shrinking. Even if the PS3 will emerge with better sales consistenly, it will take a looooong time to catch up or even surpass.

Surely the Wii should represent this better than anything else. Its selling faster than any console ever released yet it still has a long way to go to pass the 360, especially in the US market. I think someone commented earlier that even if the Wii consistantly outsells the 360 by 100k in the US a week, like it is doing now, that it would still take over two years for it to catch it in that market. Every passing week that the PS3 has lacklustre sales makes it seem like more and more of an impossible task for it to outsell its rivals.

Sony need to turn the PS3 around by the end of the year if they're serious about coming out on top.

 

[Pureauthor]

The Wii at least has Japan to depend on if things get thorny in NA for it - it's Nintendoland over there.

Sony... we don't know how Europe will respond to the PS3, so it's still in flux, I suppose. Regardless, not looking good.

 

[gkryhewy]

It's only a matter of time before Sony sell more consoles. Judging a success is a matter of years, not 4 months. Nintendo, Sony and Microsoft are all placing pieces on the chessboard and advantages vs. disadvantages may or may not mean anything for the final chapter of this game.

That worked really well for the Sega Saturn.

 

[plagiarize]

It's only a matter of time before Sony sell more consoles. Judging a success is a matter of years, not 4 months. Nintendo, Sony and Microsoft are all placing pieces on the chessboard and advantages vs. disadvantages may or may not mean anything for the final chapter of this game.

no you are right. they'll sell 130,000 more consoles this month and then around 95,000 more in april.

wait, is that not what you meant?

here's the figure that counts. ps3 is being outsold month on month by the 360 and the wii.

before they can even think about catching up they have to start outselling their competitors... but look!

360 sales didn't drop from january to february by much at all (considering january was a 5 week retail month)... the wii didn't drop much at all and was sold out anyways so it only tells us about supply (and february is traditionally a slower month), but the PS3? yeah. that dropped quite a bit.

before sony can start OUTSELLING their competitors month on month and begin to start moving towards maintaining PARITY in the market let alone the highest market share, they have to equal the sales of their competitors month on month.

before they can EQUAL the sales of their competitors month on month the sales of their console has to start growing from one month to the next.

before sales of the console can start growing from month to month they have to stop *falling* as they currently are.

in other words, before they can even begin to claw their way back, they have a lot of work to do... until we see how quickly they can stop the rot, why the hell are you predicting anything relating to the PS3 doing well in the marketplace.

the longer it takes the PS3 to start catching up, the bigger the gap gets.

 

[elostyle]

Of course such a turnaround is possible - DS was at 57k a month once, but they did have a lead still at the time.

 

[Mau ®]

Oh sh!t at the PS3 sales. That is very sad... I hope they pull through though... the Ps2 has never reached such point...

 

[jee]

Lair is probably the best example right now. the biggest draw for the game is the absolutely gigantic scale. http://www.la.gg/upl/1818properlair.jpg. while some of the other games could potentially happen on the wii, it would be at big sacrifices. heavenly sword wouldn't be nearly as cinematic and the environments wouldn't be nearly as impressive. here's a good example though -- compare excitetruck to motorstorm. motorstorm is the next level of racing, not only on a visual standpoint, but on a gameplay standpoint as well. the physics and AI play a huge part -- the visuals add to the experience. as time goes on, and devs have more time to tinker with the ps3 hardware, we'll see more examples of games that wouldn't be possible on last generation hardware. right now devs are playing it relatively safe as they get familiar with the hardware.

and i disagree with your d-pad claim -- i've played fighting games on both DS and PSP, and i'd definitely rather see more fighting games on PSP.

PlayStation 3 127,000

 

[DDayton]

Of course such a turnaround is possible - DS was at 57k a month once, but they did have a lead still at the time.

....but....but..... I thought "consoles" and "handhelds" were different markets, and that you couldn't compare the two?

(cough)

 

[plagiarize]

Of course such a turnaround is possible - DS was at 57k a month once, but they did have a lead still at the time.

well, that's sort of the thing. plus the psp managed to take a chunk out of the DS sales for a few months during the DS software drought...

but the PS3 *is* the new console here.

the wii software library is worse than the ps3s right now, i think most would agree in hardcore gaming circles (though i have more wii games i appreciate it isn't popular opinion), and yet the wii has the better attach rate and is selling hardware faster.

if the PS3 can do what the DS managed we'll see the signs of it...

but like i said, first, they have to stop the falling sales. first they have to be able to even match the 360/wii sales and then they have to pass them and then maintain that for months.

anyone who predicted the DS to turn things around in May 05 would have been right, but they also would have been *crazy*.

logic can be wrong, and sometimes illogical things do happen. but we'll see the signs of recovery long before the PS3 even starts closing the gap.

once and if those signs start to show, then predictions that the PS3 can do it will be a little bit more based in reality... but it's not enough to close the gap between the 360 and wii's monthly sales... they have to be surpassed and maintained, and right now they're going the other way.

 

[sonycowboy]

Console races tend to be decided rather early within the first year or two.

Actually until this last gen that wasn't true.

PSOne vs N64 didn't break out until late 1997/1998
SNES/Genesis was much later than that.

Although, the severe competative disadvantage in pricing for the PS3 is something we've never seen before from a true market leader (basically discounting the 3DO). Saturn vs the PSOne had it, but not to this extent, IMO.

 

[gamergirly]

It's only a matter of time before Sony sell more consoles. Judging a success is a matter of years, not 4 months. Nintendo, Sony and Microsoft are all placing pieces on the chessboard and advantages vs. disadvantages may or may not mean anything for the final chapter of this game.

Yes, but time might also become a problem in itself. The more time you spend in the current generation, the closer you get to the next generation

 

[ethelred]

the wii software library is worse than the ps3s right now, i think most would agree in hardcore gaming circles (though i have more wii games i appreciate it isn't popular opinion), and yet the wii has the better attach rate and is selling hardware faster.

Right now? You know, no, I don't agree. It's different -- several racers and lots and lots and lots of sports game -- but I don't think it is just flat out better right now. In fact, sports/racers make up 52% of its library right now. Toss in shooters and we're up to 61%.

I'm tired of "hardcore gaming" being defined by these three genres, personally.

 

[Segata Sanshiro]

Actually until this last gen that wasn't true.

PSOne vs N64 didn't break out until late 1997/1998
SNES/Genesis was much later than that.

Although, the severe competative disadvantage in pricing for the PS3 is something we've never seen before from a true market leader (basically discounting the 3DO). Saturn vs the PSOne had it, but not to this extent, IMO.

The problem is, at this early stage (I really want to stress it's still probably a bit early to say this, but only by a handful of months), saleswise, the PS3 is the Saturn and Turbographx of those two examples.

 

[DeaconKnowledge]

Actually until this last gen that wasn't true.

PSOne vs N64 didn't break out until late 1997/1998
SNES/Genesis was much later than that.

Although, the severe competative disadvantage in pricing for the PS3 is something we've never seen before from a true market leader (basically discounting the 3DO). Saturn vs the PSOne had it, but not to this extent, IMO.

SNES/Genesis was over in the SNES' first year of life.

People neglect to recall that the SNES smashed Japan, and considering that's where the bulk of development from the two consoles came from...

 

[elostyle]

It might be tough to say that the Wii lineup is worse than the PS3s as that perception is entirely subjective to the taste of the audience. And we know the audiences have become very different. For many customers, Wii sports *is* the killerapp.

 

[Oblong Schlong]

I think someone commented earlier that even if the Wii consistantly outsells the 360 by 100k in the US a week, like it is doing now, that it would still take over two years for it to catch it in that market.

It's actually outselling it by 100k a month, not each week- the NPD data is monthly. It's worth mentioning though that the Wii is currently supply constrained, but I think that's balanced out by the amount of system-seller software the 360 has in the second half of this year.

 

[Jiggy]

EVERYONE SHOULD WANT THE WII TO SUCCEED OVER THE PS3 & 360. EVERYONE.

The reason is simple. Of all 3 consoles, the Wii has the largest potential audience. It targets, fairly equally, hardcore gamers, casual gamers and non-gamers. That last category alone automatically gives them a bigger target audience.

[...]The bigger the gaming market is, the more companies and products there is room for in that market. You want bigger, better hardcore games? Then companies need to be able to make much more money on their games. They need a bigger pool of users to sell to. This also means an even stronger growth for independent developers, as they will actually have a chance of making money in such a large market.

The fact of the matter is, a market targeted at the mainstream has more room for successful niche players than a market that is focused only on that niche. Markets that become focused on their core consumer to the exclusion of the masses die.

A well-reasoned analysis looking to the long-term. Don't see those too often. (Of course, we do see some less-reasoned analyses looking to the long-term. Usually they involve PS3 and ten years.) But yeah, I agree. I'm more than willing to sacrifice 360/PS3 visuals for five years or so if it means more and better games down the line--which, if (and only if) Wii succeeds, it will.

 

[chibcicylist]

It's actually outselling it by 100k a month, not each week- the NPD data is monthly. It's worth mentioning though that the Wii is currently supply constrained, but I think that's balanced out by the amount of system-seller software the 360 has in the second half of this year.

One?(well two if you count GTA)

 

[Eteric Rice]

Actually until this last gen that wasn't true.

PSOne vs N64 didn't break out until late 1997/1998
SNES/Genesis was much later than that.

Although, the severe competative disadvantage in pricing for the PS3 is something we've never seen before from a true market leader (basically discounting the 3DO). Saturn vs the PSOne had it, but not to this extent, IMO.

Wait, wasn't the N64's lead pretty small? The Wii's is getting bigger, and bigger, with nothing to really stop it for quite a while.

 

[speculawyer]

For many customers, Wii sports *is* the killerapp.

I wonder if lots of Wii buyers will play Wii Sports and then nothing else until something really big & popular comes along. (Such as Wii Sports 2 or something like that.)

 

[ylvis_]

You lost credibilty when you started listing movie-tie-in shovelware as reasons for owning a console.

Why?

When a kid goes into a store with his father, looking for a console, he see very few licenced movie-to-game titles for the PS3 and 360, but a heck lot for Wii (Happy Feet, Spongebob, Open Season, Ice-Age 2, Chicken Little, Barnyard, Any Bully etc). What console do you think he will choose? I'm not saying all of them are great games and that he for sure are going to pick the Wii, but damn these licenced games actually sell a lot.
And we all know how popular these animated movies are.

Another thing is that 90% of the people here on GAF don't even play these titles, so how can you be against them?

Anyway, it was just an example, nothing more.

 

[andthebeatgoeson]

I wonder if lots of Wii buyers will play Wii Sports and then nothing else until something really big & popular comes along. (Such as Wii Sports 2 or something like that.)

Well, the tie ratio is going up. And someone mentioned that the 360 didn't have a tie ratio above 3.5 4 months after launch but I doubt that. I always seem to remember MS having great tie ratios, even with the original xbox.

 

[splattergnome]

I wonder if lots of Wii buyers will play Wii Sports and then nothing else until something really big & popular comes along. (Such as Wii Sports 2 or something like that.)

EA is certainly hoping that they will buy their own sports games - we will see how well Tiger Woods fared in the next NPD. And the most casual party gamers will probably have picked up Wii Play and/or Warioware, and may possibly pick up Mario Party, if it is advertised right.

 

[Neomoto]

I wonder if lots of Wii buyers will play Wii Sports and then nothing else until something really big & popular comes along. (Such as Wii Sports 2 or something like that.)

The high tie ratio that is increasing seem to show otherwise.

 

[brain_stew]

It's actually outselling it by 100k a month, not each week- the NPD data is monthly. It's worth mentioning though that the Wii is currently supply constrained, but I think that's balanced out by the amount of system-seller software the 360 has in the second half of this year.

Yes I realise its a month, I just didn't proof read my post.

 

[Jokeropia]

Wait, wasn't the N64's lead pretty small?

N64 was never in the lead at any point. It had a better start than the Playstation did, but PS1 had a significant lead due to launching ~1.5 years earlier.

 

[lix2k3]

A well-reasoned analysis looking to the long-term. Don't see those too often. (Of course, we do see some less-reasoned analyses looking to the long-term. Usually they involve PS3 and ten years.) But yeah, I agree. I'm more than willing to sacrifice 360/PS3 visuals for five years or so if it means more and better games down the line--which, if (and only if) Wii succeeds, it will.

Wow. No, I don't want a console with 1999 graphics to be the most successful. I'm sorry. I like to play games like Gears of War and Lost Planet and soon Mass Effect. Games like Zelda TP, while interesting, just don't do my $2,000 HDTV justice. I hope the console war ends in a 33, 33, 33 percentage pie. I want all of the console manufacturers to keep going. They all have their roles. MS needs Sony for competition and Sony needs MS. Nintendo needs to keep pushing the other two, so that we get titles like Little Big Planet, which btw (IMHO) looks more interesting as a family title than anything Nintendo has out there.