• Hey, guest user. Hope you're enjoying NeoGAF! Have you considered registering for an account? Come join us and add your take to the daily discourse.

NPD Sales Results for August 2015 [PS4 #1 HW/SW, 7M Amiibos LTD, 600K LTD Splatoon]

Jigorath

Banned
i mean they could afford it, but it'd be stupidly expensive

it's not hard to imagine nadella going lolno if it's too massive

plus you think people hate them for tomb raider think how much people would hate them for fo4

not to mention even if zenimax would say yes doesn't mean the people at bethesda would be happy with it

the decent increase in console sales would not be worth the cost, of both mind and money

I doubt it.

The fact that they lost so many 3rd party marketing deals to Sony tells me that there's been some major budget cuts at Xbox over the last year or so. Picking up timed exclusivity for a 10-15m selling title would be impossible if they can't even secure marketing for Call of Duty anymore.
 
I doubt PS4 will get a 100$ pricedrop, more like 50$ and some very good deal and bundle.

Hmmm, well we will just have to agree to disagree on this one.

Next year (January) will mark [26 months] that the PS4 has been on the market.

The PS2 got a $100 pricedrop after [20 months] on the US market, and [27 months] after it's initial Japan launch.
The PS3 got a $100 pricedrop after just [12 months] on the market.

So history shows that a pricedrop is coming soon for the PS4, and their first pricecut is usually $100
 

BokehKing

Banned
It amazes me that mime craft is purchased physically that much every month.

Maybe because I don't own one physical disc on my x1 or ps4, so I never really contribute to npd anyway
 

kswiston

Member
It amazes me that mime craft is purchased physically that much every month.

Maybe because I don't own one physical disc on my x1 or ps4, so I never really contribute to npd anyway

It's still mostly last gen systems for retail Minecraft. I would imagine that they are going to younger gamers who don't have access to credit cards or PSN/XBLA cards.
 

ZhugeEX

Banned
Hmmm, well we will just have to agree to disagree on this one.

Next year (January) will mark [26 months] that the PS4 has been on the market.

The PS2 got a $100 pricedrop after [20 months] on the US market, and [27 months] after it's initial Japan launch.
The PS3 got a $100 pricedrop after just [12 months] on the market.

So history shows that a pricedrop is coming soon for the PS4, and their first pricecut is usually $100

Whilst historical trends are a good indication of how the future can play out, it's never good to rely on them too much.

At this point we don't know when a price drop will happen and there is no indication of one coming in the future. There would most likely be one before Morpheus launch and so this price drop could either take place early 2016 or late 2015.

But we don't have an indication of how much will be knocked off the RRP and right now Sony have been fairly vocal about how they're not adopting the same strategy they went with on PS2 (undercut hardware and allow software to offset) but instead are aiming to increase margin made on hardware sales so that the console remains profitable through the lifecycle.
 

ZhugeEX

Banned
August 2014

“When lining up sales of PS4 and Xbox One after 10 months on the market,” said Callahan, “the combined PS4 and Xbox One hardware sales are greater by over 70 percent compared to their predecessors.”

August 2015

Now is 45%.
 

Nirolak

Mrgrgr
August 2014

“When lining up sales of PS4 and Xbox One after 10 months on the market,” said Callahan, “the combined PS4 and Xbox One hardware sales are greater by over 70 percent compared to their predecessors.”

August 2015

Now is 45%.
I don't think there's actually that many more people (or maybe even the same number of people) interested in buying the PS4 + XB1 versus the 360 + PS3.

There's just way more people who wanted to buy one up front given the much better pricing and game situation this time around.

This is also why I expect a six year generation. We will likely run out of steam way earlier since so many people already have the systems, and the audience that still exists is fine with paying a moderate premium for better experiences.
 
I don't think there's actually that many more people (or maybe even the same number of people) interested in buying the PS4 + XB1 versus the 360 + PS3.

There's just way more people who wanted to buy one up front given the much better pricing and game situation this time around.

This is also why I expect a six year generation. We will likely run out of steam way earlier since so many people already have the systems, and the audience that still exists is fine with paying a moderate premium for better experiences.

I agree with 6 years which would be back to normal compare to last gen .
Tech should also advance a good amount with things that are happening .
 

Inuhanyou

Believes Dragon Quest is a franchise managed by Sony
I thought we were normalizing for 6 year generations again anyway.

Your not taking a loss on the HW and the architecture is not hard to manage anymore unlike the CELL/RSX combo. Sony is probably already working on PS5's specifications as we speak for a relatively painless upgrade in APU architecture complete with HW BC :)

yes i am an optimist
 

ZhugeEX

Banned
I don't think there's actually that many more people (or maybe even the same number of people) interested in buying the PS4 + XB1 versus the 360 + PS3.

There's just way more people who wanted to buy one up front given the much better pricing and game situation this time around.

This is also why I expect a six year generation. We will likely run out of steam way earlier since so many people already have the systems, and the audience that still exists is fine with paying a moderate premium for better experiences.

The install base is certainly going to be lower this gen compared to the ~275m install base from last gen and will even be lower than the ~210m from PS2 gen. Consoles are primarily selling to core gamers and the wider market are satisfied through Mobile, PC and other gaming solutions. I do think that the console market will remain stable over the next few years in terms of hardware sales and software sales, whilst PC and Mobile grow fast.

I'm not sure how this gen will last in all honesty.

Here's what I've been saying since 2014.

Forecast2014REV2_zpsjmuevfai.jpg


5YearforecastREV2_zpsoljkq8vq.jpg
 

Amentallica

Unconfirmed Member
Whilst historical trends are a good indication of how the future can play out, it's never good to rely on them too much.

At this point we don't know when a price drop will happen and there is no indication of one coming in the future. There would most likely be one before Morpheus launch and so this price drop could either take place early 2016 or late 2015.

But we don't have an indication of how much will be knocked off the RRP and right now Sony have been fairly vocal about how they're not adopting the same strategy they went with on PS2 (undercut hardware and allow software to offset) but instead are aiming to increase margin made on hardware sales so that the console remains profitable through the lifecycle.

Also good to remember is that Sony was never in a position until the PS3 where a console cost an enormous amount of money to manufacture, one that took years to break even with, including the aftermath which is now the PS4. They were on a uphill trend until the PS3, so maybe in an effort to recoup PS3 setbacks, they will be less likely to drop the price as soon as the predecessors.
 

ZhugeEX

Banned
Also good to remember is that Sony was never in a position until the PS3 where a console cost an enormous amount of money to manufacture, one that took years to break even with, including the aftermath which is now the PS4. They were on a uphill trend until the PS3, so maybe in an effort to recoup PS3 setbacks, they will be less likely to drop the price as soon as the predecessors.

Well, that's not really how it works tbh.

It's more about their situation now. Not about recouping losses from years back.
 

donny2112

Member
August 2014

“When lining up sales of PS4 and Xbox One after 10 months on the market,” said Callahan, “the combined PS4 and Xbox One hardware sales are greater by over 70 percent compared to their predecessors.”

August 2015

Now is 45%.

In August 2014, the difference was ~3m. Now the difference is ~5m. PS4+XB1 are still outpacing PS360, even over the last year, just not as much as they did with that sonic boom of a start.

Edit:
In visual form:
PS4XB1_TTM_201508.png
 

Shenmue

Banned
I think it will make a difference for those 360 owners that have lots of digital titles. I don't think having retail 360 titles will move the needle much though.

I don't know... Personally I've never really bought the bc only matters when it's for digital titles argument, but I've seen this notion presented a lot. Just curious why?

My guess is:

1) Downloadable games are yours forever whereas physical games get sold off (for reasons such as space or need for money) and therefore people have no games with which to use the BC.

2) Convenience factor. Not having to take the disc out of the case.

My responses to those two anticipated reasons:

Response to 1) Reason 1 is logical and reasonable, but my question is if those physical purchase people sold their games doesn't that kind of indicate that they didn't really care to play those games anymore? Whether on their current console or in anticipation for the next gen console. This reasoning hinges on the assumption that people desire to play anything and everything they own, but not enough to want to keep the game around.

I feel like gamers have a bit more foresight than that, meaning they should be able to tell when they've got a game they may want to revisit in the future and would therefore keep it. Also this scenario sort of presents the general gamer as someone who doesn't have much direction or volition in their choice of game to play and instead just kind of turns on their console and decides to play everything they own on a rotating basis. But I think the majority shows the opposite doesn't it? They buy a console and then buy few major blockbuster games and put in quite a lot of time into that one game before moving onto the next big thing. I think most analyst type people here would agree that it is the AAA, 1000 person team games and the people who buy those games that drive this industry right now and not people like us on GAF, who appreciate gaming history, have extremely varied tastes and appreciate things like BC (because I see it pounded in time and again here that we are the MINORITY). The minority is not going to move the needle.

Response to 2) As for convenience, this makes sense on the surface as well, but is taking a disc out to play really the reason why physical BC is worthless and digital BC is the bee's knees? I mean this minor inconvenience (in my opinion) is a reason digital BC is more useful, but yet it's not a big enough inconvenience for make digital purchases overtake physical in the console space? What about the inconvenience of downloading the games and the inevitable inconvenience of running out of HDD space and having to delete and redownload? Doesn't that at least go a ways to balancing the inconvenience of physical out?

Some reasons I disagree with this argument that digital BC is more important than physical BC:

  • Physical BC in the past has been near or 100%, whereas the Xbox's new BC for digital is nowhere near.
  • Wii U has Wii digital BC that is 100% and it doesn't seem to have helped much. Vita has a good amount of PSP digital BC.
  • We have information for time spent on games from the major console holders, and rarely if ever do you see significant time being spent on old, digital download or retail games. Yes I know Minecraft is an exception but that game is like Lego for kids and will probably get played forever regardless of BC or not, and I don't believe that's an indicator for the greater argument that gamers want to play their old games catalog.
 

ViciousDS

Banned
From the Until Dawn salt thread because apparently they think they know shit


I just wanted to watch this movie.

Well, it looks like a game you can watch instead of play and still get the majority of the enjoyment.

of course it was #1. People would rather watch the game than buy it.

It was people watching it on Youtube instead of buying it.

Nobody is going to buy it if they watched the playthrough. It's literally a movie.


Go eat the crows from the failed QTE's

#7 in 4 days......in just the US
 

Game Guru

Member
It is.

It's also predictable. Digital sales are only going up in most cases.

To be fair, it is an interesting news item and something that could lead to the adoption of digital on console being hobbled. To explain, GameStop has only gotten more and more powerful in the console space, enough that, last I heard, it outpaces Walmart in terms of video game hardware and software sales. This means that if GameStop makes a demand, Sony and Microsoft will have to oblige by that or risk GameStop favoring their competitor which could itself have a huge impact on sales. GameStop has a reason to make sure physical game sales continue to exist and have the power to make sure it still exists. Compare this to PC whose physical market had all but died before the rise of digital via services like Steam or mobile which never had a physical market for games to start with. PC and mobile devices also exist as mainly utilitarian devices that just happen to also play games unlike a game console which has playing games as its primary purpose.

There is a possibility that GameStop, as the largest retailer of console games, could become an entity in the video game market similar to what the direct market is to the American comic book industry, namely an entity with so much power over its own market that it can dictate terms favorable for its own continued existence.
 
Maybe. But that's a guess, so who really knows? Also, that wouldn't be all that great anyway would it?

Actually, it is! A QTE game that's exclusive to 1 console with barely any advertisements from Sony. It's only been 3 weeks since it's release so far. This game was so underrated until Pewdiepie and other big Youtubers started streaming it.
 
If a game like this sells 2 million lifetime sales. I'd say that's pretty good.

Wait, I'm not following...how did we get to 2 million lifetime sales?

Actually, it is! A QTE game that's exclusive to 1 console with barely any advertisements from Sony. It's only been 3 weeks since it's release so far. This game was so underrated until Pewdiepie and other big Youtubers started streaming it.

I love the game too. I'm just not sure I'd call it a commercial success just yet.
 
Actually, it is! A QTE game that's exclusive to 1 console with barely any advertisements from Sony. It's only been 3 weeks since it's release so far. This game was so underrated until Pewdiepie and other big Youtubers started streaming it.
You don't think Sony giving the game to people to stream was part of their marketing for the game?
 

Conduit

Banned
It's in beta? It's not exactly going to be promoted through TV spots. Come November who knows how they are going to promote it.

EA Access is here more than a year. For me it's better value than BC, but MS advertises it in FIFA 16 bundle. Didn't boost sales. How you expect that BC will boost sales?
 
If a full priced new IP like Until Dawn is considered a flop at 90k, what can be said of the 109k that the 30$ Rare Replay did for the entire month, despite being called "best compilation ever" on several websites ? The Rare Legacy is irrelevant, and Microsoft should close the studio before their next failure ?

Aside from USA, Until Dawn charted number 1 in value in UK, and was also number 1 in France. On the PS Store, it was #4 in US and #7 in Europe for August, all of this while being a full priced new IP, with a limited exposition from Sony.

Cool fact about legs : for September so far, Until Dawn is holding way stronger than Gears of War in Amazon FR, UK or USA. The game was late to the party, but it definitly got some word of mouth at the last minute.

I wouldn't dismiss it too fast. Project Cars became million seller (shipped at least) with a 60-80k first month in USA if I recall well ?

If you want to see a true PS4 exclusive flop, ask creamsugar for the Tearaway Unfolded numbers, next month.
 
You don't think Sony giving the game to people to stream was part of their marketing for the game?

I mean yes, but, that marketing isn't quite as big as what they did for the Order 1886. They advertised the hell out of that game and it fell flat with reviews. I, not once seen a Until Dawn commercial on TV yet. With the Order 1886, I've seen so many I couldn't count.
 

Boke1879

Member
Wait, I'm not following...how did we get to 2 million lifetime sales?



I love the game too. I'm just not sure I'd call it a commercial success just yet.

This is just me speculating. When all is said and done I think if a game like this game reach 2 million lifetime sales I'd suspect that's pretty good. We'd have to know the budget of the game though and I assume it wasn't very much.
 

ZhugeEX

Banned
PS4 at 36M+ at end of 2015?
And your not seeing any "tail off" in demand for PS4?

It shows shipments.

As of now i'm not seeing an indication that PS4 sales will be lower in 2016 or 2017.

Also this is assuming no other static home console launches before Q3 2019. (Other than NX)
 
EA Access is here more than a year. For me it's better value than BC, but MS advertises it in FIFA 16 bundle. Didn't boost sales. How you expect that BC will boost sales?
Because BC is a concept that is easy for the masses to understand and costs nothing extra. EA Access is a great addition that I subscribe to, but I constantly have to explain to people what it includes. The mass market doesn't really get it yet.
 

Shenmue

Banned
Because BC is a concept that is easy for the masses to understand and costs nothing extra. EA Access is a great addition that I subscribe to, but I constantly have to explain to people what it includes. The mass market doesn't really get it yet.

I think you give the general public way too much credit. I remember near the PS3 launch so many people didn't know what BC was despite it being mentioned on the boxes in very clear terms and in Sony's commercials. I mean even some people on GAF, people who should be in the know, still don't know all PS3s are BC with PS1 games.

I don't think it's that the concept is that hard to understand, but rather that people just don't really care to know.

When the time comes and Xbox's BC feature is live for everyone, there won't be any kind of dedicated campaign to market it either, because can you imagine a commercial that puts the focus on BC? That would be a ridiculous commercial. The only way BC can be marketed is as a sidenote to something else.

For example: "Finish the fight again! Get Halo 5 on <insert date>! (and then in that super fast we gotta squeeze information into our 30 second commercial slot, XboxonenowbackwardscompatiblewithallofyourHalogamesonxbox360) <Xbox iconic sound>" end commercial.
 

Boke1879

Member
Because BC is a concept that is easy for the masses to understand and costs nothing extra. EA Access is a great addition that I subscribe to, but I constantly have to explain to people what it includes. The mass market doesn't really get it yet.

While BC is a great thing to have and obviously great from a consumer standpoint it's not something people will rush out to buy a console for.
 
Top Bottom