So....they are trying to maximize profit and that's why they haven't cut the price?
Thanks for your thoughts
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NPD Sales Results for August 2015 [PS4 #1 HW/SW, 7M Amiibos LTD, 600K LTD Splatoon]
- Thread starter Nirolak
- Start date
So....they are trying to maximize profit and that's why they haven't cut the price?
Thanks for your thoughts
KillerMan91
Member
Oh. Forgot to update the comparison myself last month as it took forever to get 3DS numbers. Thanks for update !
Cool.
And I would love a big budget next gen Suikoden on PS4.
But you and I don't represent the mass market.
I gave my reasons - a $50 cut is too small so no cut last year & Sony will probably announce either a $50 or $100 cut for this holiday.
I missed you are saying that they will cut it this year. Sorry about that.
I just don't think they will. And the Star Wars bundle pricing seems to lean that way.
FWIW I think they will cut it in 2016. Just a guess though
Boombloxer
Member
The mass wants new shit, not old.
MightyHedgehog
Member
Wonderful, but the mass market isn't all there is.
Bolivar687
Banned
Regarding the price drop... I remember reading on here that Sony locked in the amount and date well in advance. My guess is they expected to be second place in a contracting industry, during an austere time for their company, and are now executing against a long term plan to weather this generation.
I think it's too late for this year because the Fall onslaught of blockbuster games has already begun and both machines will nearly sell out at retail over December and November regardless. If not at PSX, I imagine they'll drop the price after the holidays, going into year 3, as they look to expand the install base beyond hardcore enthusiasts, and ideally when their first party studios begin their output in earnest with hopefully diverse new IP.
I think it's too late for this year because the Fall onslaught of blockbuster games has already begun and both machines will nearly sell out at retail over December and November regardless. If not at PSX, I imagine they'll drop the price after the holidays, going into year 3, as they look to expand the install base beyond hardcore enthusiasts, and ideally when their first party studios begin their output in earnest with hopefully diverse new IP.
CosmicQueso
Member
The price cut people are like birthers at this point. Despite all the evidence in the contrary of a price cut coming this year, they just cling to the idea that a price cut is coming this year.
You. I like you.
Which is why, this month, Minecraft was #2, a Gears remaster #3, a port to PS4/Xone pushes #4, #6 is another collection of remastered games from way back when, and #8 is a combo pack of old Call of Duty games.
So....they are trying to maximize profit and that's why they haven't cut the price?
Thanks for your thoughts
You. I like you.
Which is why, this month, Minecraft was #2, a Gears remaster #3, a port to PS4/Xone pushes #4, #6 is another collection of remastered games from way back when, and #8 is a combo pack of old Call of Duty games.
GravityInsanity
Member
Thanks
MightyHedgehog
Member
I thought about pointing that out, but figured it was too obvious. Let's see how UC trilogy collection does since it's likely to be the biggest-selling, most highly-reviewed exclusive going on PS4 this year.
Boombloxer
Member
Yes, a month with only 1 mass market release, Madden, the new yearly version that usually wins August.
Do you think this will repeat itself over the next few main buying months that generates the majority of revenue for publishers? Probably. Hence the new > old.
Point stands. BC is a selling point for a very, very low amount of people.
Would you like to wager that the collection outsells UC4? I doubt it.
You're not disproving his point. Aside from evergreen titles like Minecraft and GTAV, Those games aren't exactly lighting the sales charts on fire.
Beer Monkey
Member
1) Parent buys new thing for family.
2) Child sees that Minecraft is available for thing.
3) It prints money.
2) Child sees that Minecraft is available for thing.
3) It prints money.
I see what you are getting at, but it was a slow month and no big releases. Also regarding those:
Minecraft and GTAV are beasts upon their own sales-wise
Rare Replay is an insane value.
Gears is a pretty damn good value too with the other 3 (+ original Gears) coming to those who bought it by the end of the year.
CoD BO hype is real.
But first and foremost, it was a slow month regarding sales and releases. I doubt Gears, CoD combo back nor Rare Replay chart this month.
For the past five years (or maybe more at this point), the top 10 best selling games of the year have looked almost exactly the same, if not only in series name, then in genre/gameplay architecture.
Most of the major successful new IPs have also taken existing formulas and either just combined two of them (see something like Mordor with AC + Batman) or given a new twist on it (here's Diablo, but as an FPS in Borderlands, and now here's Borderlands with a town lobby and more Halo like combat as Destiny).
It feels incredibly difficult to actually argue that most of the market wants new things instead of just better/expanded versions of things they already like.
Now, some new things do really work and get introduced over time, like the Toys to Life genre, but the reaction to that appears to have been consumers clamoring for progressively more of them with incrementally more features instead of demanding something else totally new.
Boombloxer
Member
Fixed, but yes. Everyone loves Minecraft.
Regret Upon Approval
Member
BC might be of more note to you if you are a consumer of digital downloads.
The possibility of buying stuff that won't die with a console once it is replaced would be reassuring.
As for mass market appeal. It depends on whether the biggest titles get BC support. So basically whether a lot of people care falls onto CoD. Judging from Uservoice.
The possibility of buying stuff that won't die with a console once it is replaced would be reassuring.
As for mass market appeal. It depends on whether the biggest titles get BC support. So basically whether a lot of people care falls onto CoD. Judging from Uservoice.
People obviously want familiar. I don't think you can say that means they want literally old. There's a lack of games at retail in general; that really well rated "familiar" and/or old games do well in the marketplace any given month is not surprising. I mean, wow, Rare Replay did so well it basically farted past 100k. What of it?
The "familiar" stuff will come out this year and sell fifty times that.
The "familiar" stuff will come out this year and sell fifty times that.
You should switch 1 and 2 haha.
Yes, that's an important distinction.
The reason The Order 1886 did poorly was it felt like a 2010 title instead of a game that expanded upon the formula of 2010 era third person shooters in a meaningful way.
Tomb Raider on the other hand added features people really liked to the Uncharted setup and sold incredibly well.
do mobas count as new?
Boombloxer
Member
Even if it's not digital. A lot of the same arguments were repeated when the PS3 had full and limited BC--the PS2 base has yet to upgrade, etc. Same thing when MS mentioned they did their duty regarding BC, oh man, it'll hurt. Quite the opposite in both cases.
And again, people care about new CoD/AC/Madden, etc. Black Ops 2 in particular because it was popular. But once people have the new zombies, etc? Won't chart again.
And actually the mass market matters a lot more a few years into the generation. And by and large, they don't care about BC, which is the whole point. It can matter to us, but for the moms? They ask their kids, kids will want what their friends have for the most part. BC for Gears 2 doesn't top a Vader Star Wars for the figures they'll also get.
Kazuma Kiryu
Member
Who said anything about caring who won? I'm discussing the value of features such as BC, which past experiences have shown us it's almost irrelevant in terms of consumer demand.
Microsoft is developing local 360 BC, Sony is developing cloud PS3 BC. Neither is pushing it as the next big thing, but instead an added extra to their ecosystem.
I would consider it to be a progressively enhanced and expanded genre since Aeon of Strife or at least the original Warcraft 3 DotA.
I do think things like Gigantic and Battleborn, even if they fail, are cleverly conceived games built upon a popular formula in a way that makes them appealing to new audiences while still appealing to some of the old.
Awesomenauts (Owners: 1,545,904 ± 29,450 on Steam alone) actually had pretty amazing success for an indie MOBA from an unknown developer competing with two of the biggest games on earth via smart differentiation in an existing genre.
Even when taking more similar games (same camera angle and platform choice), we see titles like Heroes of the Storm doing very well through strong differentiation from the other games in the genre, while much more conservative titles like Strife don't seem to go anywhere since they're not offering anything new.
CosmicQueso
Member
I never disagreed with that point.
But the question was "can BC help move the needle?"
And the answer is... we don't know for sure, and can't. There is no possible way to strip all of the influencing factors that impact sales and point out a specific fraction that can be attributed to one or another feature.
But is BC a feature that, along with a number of other features, benefits, etc influence a purchase decision? Sure. It could. Perhaps.
So, "can BC help move the needle?" the ONLY answer that can be said with any certainty is "maybe".
Consumers ALWAYS say they want it when asked, because consumers will always respond with "YES" if a potential beneficial feature is described. Do consumers act on that? Who knows. The console manufacturers sure don't know for sure, because they keep going back and forth with implementing and not implementing it.
Hate to break it to you, but NOTHING is setting sales charts on fire right now in the Console space compared with other gaming markets.
You want to talk about people wanting new and not old? Look at the Console market now and compare it to the money being generated by things like Hearthstone, League, the big mobile game of the moment, the Steam Spy data, etc. The Consoles have been rejected by the mass market to this point because the mass does want new and different. And that's not happening on the Consoles anymore.
Consoles are being purchased by the Core market who want warm and familiar, and almost everything that tries to do something outside of established norms in the Console space gets hammered in the marketplace.
flaviusconstantius
Member
I suspect had it been there in the first place, it would have played a role out of all proportion to its actual value in the "perceptions" battle, in the sense Microsoft would have had it and Sony would not have. So it might have done something to counter the other screwups Microsoft made in the roll-out. And added to the value proposition.
Two years in, with last-gen having fallen off a cliff, and so much cross-gen stuff? Different matter.
I think you overestimate how large the core market actually is. If the mass market rejected consoles, then they'd all be selling like the Vita. 50m copies of GTAV have been sold on consoles in the last two year, you telling me that's not generating massive amounts of cash? Call of Duty, Skylanders, Battlefield, Madden, FIFA, Minecraft, all major money makers, year after year, they don't just sell to "core" gamers. These are mass market products.
Consoles are definitely in a decline from last generation, but that's what happens when things peak. August was slow. Only one major game came out. September will look better.
Bolivar687
Banned
You omitted how Mordor stood out on its own because of its Nemesis system and how Destiny really is the only game right now doing what it's doing, regardless of where it took its influences from. It's understandable why big investments would want to leverage familiar mechanics but you can't discount how players genuinely respond to the new features that serve as the cornerstone of those games. Especially when there is simultaneously a thriving market looking for different experiences on Steam and other digital platforms.
Construing older games charting during a slow summer month as indicative of complacency is silly on its own but I sincerely hope people aren't making it out to be proof that Backwards Compatibility isn't just another chalkboard item.
Final Verdict
Member
X1 has increased 18% YoY this year with just a $50 pricedrop, and that is without any big exclusive games coming out for it in the first 8 months to date.
With PS4 likely getting a $100 price drop next year, and VR bringing in some people that may have not been interested other wise (not to mention the big games coming next year for PS4), I think next year could be special for the PS4. I don't see 25% increase as a huge stretch, though in reality it may end up being closer to 20%.
As for the X1, I think that MS will continue to be competitive with price, and has a big exclusive lineup that should get more people interested. You are probably right though. Looking at past trends, X1 probably won't increase 10% YoY, though I still think they can continue a small upwards trend, or remain flat at worst.
The X360 increased NPD sales YoY for five strait years from 2006-2011.
The PS3 also did the same with exception to 2010 where they were flat YoY.
My general train of thought here is that as the consoles continue to get cheaper, and accumulate more software, the sales will continue to increase YoY until their market is saturated.
CosmicQueso
Member
And all the annualized titles you mention are selling consistently less than previous years' versions. All of them.
Some of them, like Madden and FIFA, are making up for revenue declines on the base games with amazing DLC and MTX strategies. They're getting more revenue per user than they ever have before, but the Console user base from year to year is shrinking.
This year, according to historical benchmarks, should be the peak selling year for both the Xbox One and PS4. And the growth in software revenues on the new boxes still can't offset the declines from the prior gen.
Very recently there were as many 8 viable Console & Handheld platforms on which to develop. Right now there are 2, with some unique titles able to get to perhaps 4. And even with far fewer platforms, development costs have gone up.
There used to be literally hundreds of titles released every year targeted at Kids & Families. Now, basically there are LEGO games and Toys to Life. That's it. But the Mass Market is still in the Console space?
In any case, we are digressing far from the BC question.
Bolivar687
Banned
Source? I thought Advanced Warfare was the best selling game this generation, not Ghosts.
And you didn't say they're selling less.
You said the mass market rejected them.
Boombloxer
Member
Yes and no. The two main markets you're talking about haven't changed that much either--mobile 2 years ago is the same now, same with PC. LoL released in 2009, WoW in early 2000s, World of Tanks, etc. Heathstone is newer, Dota 2 is a few years old. CoC/CCS/Game of War, and the others haven't moved either for mobile. The top grossing games have been in the top 30 for a few years.
Most of the growth isn't in the western markets, its in Asia, where mobile is growing fast and PC still has large marketshare, both driven by free-to-play.
Consoles haven't been rejected, it's the regular curve for the generation, core goes first, pricedrops happen, more people join. In terms of revenue and that relates to marketshare, none of the individual segments pass console--and most of that is PS4/XB1 related, with growth in digital.
So by that measurement, everyone is fairly comfortable--no "new" in the sense you're talking about. Lots of clones on Mobile and PC, but everyone flocks to the current leaders.
I think it'd be different story if Q4 hardware is down YoY, but I highly, highly doubt that's going to be the case.
The Maverick
Member
Yeah, the future outlook for handheld systems is not looking rosy. They needed a 3DS successor this year.
He said previous years, not previous year.
Although I would disagree with a couple of those annualised titles mentioned. But yes, majority are seeing less sales than before. Although as Cosmic says, ARPU is up thanks to DLC and other monetisation strategies.
I doubt PS4 will get a 100$ pricedrop, more like 50$ and some very good deal and bundle.
About the price, you guys need to understand that even if the OFFICIAL price is still the same, that's doesn't mean the people can't buy a PS4 for less than 400$...
We have a lot of deal, a lot of bundle, and unofficial pricedrop, you can already buy a PS4 for less than 400$, taht's why a pricedrop is not gonna to be huge.
And the deal are even bigger with XBO, just for example the recently TV + XBO for 500$ this month...
This year, XBO got a lot of promotion, and in October has Halo, the bigger XBOX IP.
Next year i don't see games so big, and i don't think those promotion are going to boost all times the XBO... with those unofficial pricedrop and promotion, XBO can increase the 2015 sales, but will saturate the market with this trend.
Bigger are the XBO sales this year, bigger will be the dropped next year. 360 / PS3 are a difference situation, and we all know this...
CosmicQueso
Member
If you can look at the Console market and believe, honestly to yourself, that it's in a better mass market position that it was 15 years ago, 10 years ago, or even 5 years ago then nothing anyone will say will convince you otherwise.
But look at where development investment is going, think about where the content being made to appeal to dad, mom, grandma and little Billy is being released, hell just look at Activision Blizzard's slate and last few years of financials and then try to answer that question again.
If you STILL think that everything is fine in the Console space, well, cool then I guess.
This is indeed having a huge impact, but was trying to keep the convo more on the US market since its NPD and all. But yes, resources are being funneled into development for those markets that have indeed fully rejected consoles already, including Japan at this point.
This year should be up versus 2014, but 2016 will most likely be down vs 2015 unless this generation breaks all historical benchmarks. It could, would just be highly unusual.
But look at where development investment is going, think about where the content being made to appeal to dad, mom, grandma and little Billy is being released, hell just look at Activision Blizzard's slate and last few years of financials and then try to answer that question again.
If you STILL think that everything is fine in the Console space, well, cool then I guess.
This is indeed having a huge impact, but was trying to keep the convo more on the US market since its NPD and all. But yes, resources are being funneled into development for those markets that have indeed fully rejected consoles already, including Japan at this point.
This year should be up versus 2014, but 2016 will most likely be down vs 2015 unless this generation breaks all historical benchmarks. It could, would just be highly unusual.
Chobel
Member
Has this been known? GameStop won't be selling XBO/PS4 bundles with digital codes anymore
It's not just "consoles are d00med!" or "consoles are in the best place ever!", there's a middle ground you know. We're in a decline, I think everyone recognizes that, but I don't believe it's necessary to start freaking out about the end of the console market right now. Like, are you expecting the PS4 and Xbone to completely bomb this holiday? Do you think Nintendo is going to drop out of the console market entirely and go mobile with their next hardware?
Boombloxer
Member
It's less "everything is fine and dandy" vs "the entire world market has evolved, and the biggest growth region basically has zero console presence and more of everything else".
So if you're a publisher, like any of the Top 10, you double-down on your best performers, and experiment with things that might become a hit in one than one region to supplement those. It also means you're banking on those big franchises retaining their players, which by and large, they do. Less than before, yes, but it's also a state of transition for players and the market in general.
That doesn't actually mean they're dying nor will cease to generate the most income in the largest markets where they traditionally have a large foothold, yes, even in the face of mobile and everything else.
And in that gaming example, the more likely scenario is that Dad is playing CoC or Fire Age on their phone or tablet; with an eye towards Star Wars, Madden, Cod when there's a deal to be had; the kids are playing Minecraft on 1 of multiple platforms. Grandma is on CCS.
The real loser is handhelds. The family in that scenario flat out doesn't need one.
People tend to overstate the importance of Japan for console sales--they really are only important for that countries developers. The other regions, never really had them take off for a variety of reasons from government to games (like Kartrider in Korea). So not really a rejection vs never actually having a chance to take off.
Imagine if the US outlawed PC gaming, leaving only console as an option. Even if PCs were unbanned years later, wouldn't matter. That path is largely set in stone and quite hard to change.
CosmicQueso
Member
You bring up great points, just wanted to say I appreciate, understand and agree.
I have no idea how you could come to a conclusion like that based on the conversation.
Chobel
Member
If this year should be up versus 2014 then PS4 will surely be +30 million sold by the end of the year, no?
I was using hyperbole to prove a point.
Boombloxer
Member
Bueno.
PhantomVash808
Member
Woooo Until Dawn charted good job SuperMassive. I look forward to seeing more games from this team in the future.
Chobel
Member
I missed that, and it sounded so casual there. I mean Gamestop not selling bundles with digital codes is kinda a big deal.
Boombloxer
Member
Woooo Until Dawn charted good job SuperMassive. I look forward to seeing more games from this team in the future.
Did you know that Until Dawn was trending as the second most searched keyword on Google Malaysia last week.
The more you know.....
Bits N Pieces
Member
It's in beta? It's not exactly going to be promoted through TV spots. Come November who knows how they are going to promote it.