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[Nightstick11]

For the PS3 to catch up to the 360, it will have to outsell it by about 65,000 per month, every month, over the next 60 months. And that's just to be even in 5 years.

How likely do you think that is when Halo 3 comes out? Or when GTA comes out? Or when the 360 premium drops to $299 then $199 within that time frame?

I'd give the PS3 a 5-10% chance of catching the 360 at this point. Wii, I have no idea.

You must have amnesia. Sony's previous two consoles have cleared 20+million consoles in a single year in their prime during the two previous generations. It's quite possible the PS3 can eventually hit those marks as well. One such year would wipe out Xbox 360's "lead".

Xbox 360, on the other hand, has squandered a one year head-start, by rather under-whelming numbers in the USA (4.5 million in 14 months is rather weak), and failing to make any headway in Europe or Japan. It's too early to be screaming about a KO in Microsoft's favor. Wii captured half of the Xbox 360's market-share in two months. It's quite possible that by December 31st, 2007 that both PS3 and Wii would have passed Xbox 360's global installed base.

 

[GhaleonEB]

You must have amnesia. Sony's previous two consoles have cleared 20+million consoles in a single year in their prime during the two previous generations. It's quite possible the PS3 can eventually hit those marks as well. One such year would wipe out Xbox 360's "lead".

Xbox 360, on the other hand, has squandered a one year head-start, by rather under-whelming numbers in the USA (4.5 million in 14 months is rather weak), and failing to make any headway in Europe or Japan. It's too early to be screaming about a KO in Microsoft's favor. Wii captured half of the Xbox 360's market-share in two months. It's quite possible that by December 31st, 2007 that both PS3 and Wii would have passed Xbox 360's global installed base.

You forgot one small thing: this gen is not last gen. The bottom line is there are a LOT of game-chaning factors at play here. I still think Sony will probably end up on top enventually, but it's certainly not a foregone conclusion in the US, much less in one year.

 

[Luckyman]

So
GCN first 2 months > 1.2M
Wii first 2 months > 1.1M

What does this mean?!? :lol

 

[Odysseus]

What does this mean?!? :lol

it means that this next gen doesn't work at all

 

[suaveric]

I think the Wii numbers are the dissapointing ones in this.
They said they shipped 2million, mainstream hype is supposed to be great, cheapest console, sold out everywhere, yet they only sold 114k more than the PS3 which is twice as expensive, shipped only 1m, isn't sold out, "doesn't have any games", has bad karma and manufacturing problems and whatnot.

Yeah, either Nintendo shot themselves in the foot with their artificial shortage or they lied and couldn't make enough units.

NOA said that North America would get "the largest share" of the 4 million Wii by the end of the year. And I'm fairly sure Reggie did say NA would get 2 million by the first week of January (although I can't find the link to prove that quote). All of this was before the whole controller strap issue popped up. What else could be the reason for Nintendo not meeting that goal? They probably had almost a million Wii boxed and ready to go post-launch when they decided to go back and open all of them up to replace the straps.

That would put a serious dent in their ability to get more Wii on store shelves. Nintendo knew back in the first week of December that this was going to be a serious problem, look at the whole revised press release thing that happened. (http://www.nintendoworldreport.com/newsArt.cfm?artid=12527)

Now all Nintendo can do is pray that people still want the Wii in the coming months as much as they did in December. What a missed opportunity

 

[VALIS]

You must have amnesia. Sony's previous two consoles have cleared 20+million consoles in a single year in their prime during the two previous generations. It's quite possible the PS3 can eventually hit those marks as well. One such year would wipe out Xbox 360's "lead".

Xbox 360, on the other hand, has squandered a one year head-start, by rather under-whelming numbers in the USA (4.5 million in 14 months is rather weak), and failing to make any headway in Europe or Japan. It's too early to be screaming about a KO in Microsoft's favor. Wii captured half of the Xbox 360's market-share in two months. It's quite possible that by December 31st, 2007 that both PS3 and Wii would have passed Xbox 360's global installed base.

a. I didn't realize the PS3 was the PS2 and the PS1. I thought it was a different console with a different price point with different games against different competition in a different time period.

b. I wasn't talking about world wide. Anyone knows the 360 has no chance in hell world wide. I'm talking North America.

 

[Luckyman]

Madden and Resistance only PS3-games over 100k..?

 

[Tieno]

it means that this next gen doesn't work at all

Wii isn't ne....ah forget, I'm too lazy...

 

[Branduil]

Nintendo did produce 4 million by the end of the year. Unfortunately, you have to actually ship the consoles to stores for them to sell.

Personally I think everybody is making too big of a deal of all these numbers. A few hundred thousand less or more consoles this december is not going to be what decides this console war.

 

[thorns]

can anyone compre x360 launch software numbers (nov-dec) and ps3 software numbers? the hardware sold should be about the same. If i remember CoD2 alone did almost 500k?

 

[Nightstick11]

You forgot one small thing: this gen is not last gen. The bottom line is there are a LOT of game-chaning factors at play here. I still think Sony will probably end up on top enventually, but it's certainly not a foregone conclusion in the US, much less in one year.

that is brought up every generation, but the more things change, the more things stay the same. The only real game-changing factor at play here is the $600 price-tag. Sony has had the crown for two generations in a row, so their brand-name is obviously strong. Nintendo's brand-name was strong even after the 16-bit generation. N64 managed to go on to sell 35+ million, despite its droughts.

This gen is very similar to last gen in many regards. Xbox360 isn't taking off in Europe and Japan, Xbox360's library is similar to Xbox, 360 is tracking similarly to Xbox, same major 3rd-party hits announced for PS3 and 1st-party hits for Wii, etc. etc.

PS3 may catch the Xbox360 in the US, or it may not. I think the US by itself is rather irrelevant, however. No console which didn't lead in Japan ever lead the industry, and Europe was the key to Sony's domination with the Playstation 1.

a. I didn't realize the PS3 was the PS2 and the PS1. I thought it was a different console with a different price point with different games against different competition in a different time period.

b. I wasn't talking about world wide. Anyone knows the 360 has no chance in hell world wide. I'm talking North America.

The slate isn't wiped clean every generation. People realize that the Playstation 3 is in fact the successor to Playstation 2, 3rd-party exclusives generally aren't a free-for-all, etc. etc. Metal Gear 4, Final Fantasy 13, Tekken 6, Devil may Cry 4, and most of the other Sony heavy-hitters are in fact all titles that got their big breaks dating back to PS1. Thus, when I say 3rd-party exclusives aren't a free-for-all, you're not going to see the major 3rd-party titles like Final Fantasy or MGS switch platforms. Microsoft still has an uphill battle in preserving its lead; 4.5 million in a competition-free 12 months isn't a comfortable lead, especially considering that the Wii and PS3 are tracking much higher than the 360.

 

[dejan]

16 pages? Disappointmenton total!

 

[Andy787]

So did anyone post Portable Ops sales?

 

[Hiro_Kunimi_80]

16 pages? Disappointmenton total!

sonybots = bailout

 

[hadareud]

especially considering that the Wii and PS3 are tracking much higher than the 360.

are they? PS3 sold the same as the 360 did last year, Wii had a good launch overall but I think we'll have to wait and see how each system is tracking once all the shortages are gone and we have a "normal" month (ie not christmas).

Not saying that it won't happen, but I think you are jumping the gun mate.

 

[Pureauthor]

'Tis a good day to be a GAFfer.

 

[bud]

are they? PS3 sold the same as the 360 did last year

360 sales data:
Nov-05 325,902
Dec-05 281,441
Jan-06 250,000
Feb-06 161,000
Mar-06 192,000
Apr-06 295,000
May-06 221,000
Jun-06 277,000
Jul-06 207,000
Aug-06 205,000
Sep-06 259,000
Oct-06 218,000
Nov-06 511,300

Total: 3.404 million


PS3 sales data:
Nov-06 196,580


Wii sales data:
Nov-06 476,140



At least we have something to talk about now.

But starting from january i guess we should get a good picture of how the ps3 is selling.

 

[Dr. Kitty Muffins]

Pachter is as upset as anyone about the Wii hardware numbers.

Gamespot

It sold about as well as the Gamecube during a two month period, instead of Ipod like figures. This is the same guy that overestimated another console. He just needs to get over it.

 

[hadareud]

But starting from january i guess we should get a good picture of how the ps3 is selling.

yep, it sold around 80k more during launch - which is about the same I guess. January should give us a good idea (although we have to keep in mind that the 360 was supply constrained until April), for the wii we'll have to wait a bit longer I think.

 

[Farmboy]

Why is everyone saying the PSP's 'success' has caught them off guard? PSP hardware sales have always been decent to good, and received a nice boost last year around the holidays as well. It's also down year over year. The PSP's problem aren't its hardware sales. Never have been.

Also, the fact that the Wii is tracking the highest of the three 'next-gen' (yeah, I know) consoles in terms of sellthrough in comparable timespan says... well, it doesn't say a lot, but at least enough to ridicule the cries of d00med.

 

[Bo130]

I haven't seen the answer yet, so I have to ask again. How come Zelda isn't on the multiplatformchart at #3?

 

[bud]

I haven't seen the answer yet, so I have to ask again. How come Zelda isn't on the multiplatformchart at #3?

sony moneyhats

 

[ToxicAdam]

Michael Pachter: "Never mind my awful predictions, look at my wonderful hair!"

 

[Busty]

Why is everyone saying the PSP's 'success' has caught them off guard? PSP hardware sales have always been decent to good, and received a nice boost last year around the holidays as well. It's also down year over year. The PSP's problem aren't its hardware sales. Never have been.

Also, the fact that the Wii is tracking the highest of the three 'next-gen' (yeah, I know) consoles in terms of sellthrough in comparable timespan says... well, it doesn't say a lot, but at least enough to ridicule the cries of d00med.

The thing that always impressed me about then PSP is though it's selling (iirc) it's technically never actually receieved a price drop. Instead Sony have been bundling and changing the SKU to include things like games and Memory Sticks.

To me, with the frankly dire games sales that is the most impressive thing. I wonder if Sony's pricing strategdy is what we'lll see in the future with the PS3?

I know we can't ask for actual numbers. But I wonder when we'll see some concrete PSP software numbers on the Interweb? Didn't someone mention that not a single PSP game broke the 100k barrier!!!!!

 

[Yoboman]

So one million PS3s shipped in 2006 and they sold 687.3k PS3s?

NPD doesn't count Walmart, TRU and other retailers though, right?

 

[Maximilian E.]

NPD doesn't count Walmart, TRU and other retailers though, right?

If that´s the case, then both Wii and 360 have higher numbers right? (and DS, PSP etc)

 

[Yoboman]

If that´s the case, then both Wii and 360 have higher numbers right? (and DS, PSP etc)

Everything would

 

[APerfectCircle]

Maybe people got a bit ahead of themselves regarding Wii hardware. I mean, didn't it sell more than any Xbox360 month except for the current one? I mean, its hard to expect there not to be shortage problems for a console's launch. The next NPD will be interesting (i know this is said in every iteration!).
Realisticly, its a pretty good month for everyone!

 

[AnimeTheme]

The thing that always impressed me about then PSP is though it's selling (iirc) it's technically never actually receieved a price drop. Instead Sony have been bundling and changing the SKU to include things like games and Memory Sticks.

To me, with the frankly dire games sales that is the most impressive thing. I wonder if Sony's pricing strategdy is what we'lll see in the future with the PS3?

Since they can't make enough money on the software and they know this situation won't change in the near future, they choose to have no price cut in order to reduce loss (or even earn) per hardware sold... perhaps?

 

[Striek]

Why is everyone saying the PSP's 'success' has caught them off guard? PSP hardware sales have always been decent to good, and received a nice boost last year around the holidays as well. It's also down year over year. The PSP's problem aren't its hardware sales. Never have been.

Hardware sales are and always have been the problem for PSP, as they are for the 360.

A couple of months ago we know that the PSP had a not insignificant tie-ratio lead in the U.S, despite a similar lack of top 20 (and even top 40) titles. Is there a reason for this to have changed recently?


To answer your question why the people are surprised by the 'good' PSP hardware performance (when its actually bad), the answer is exactly the same as why you - and most others - erroneously think the PSP software is bad. Its all about the data available at the time (usually front of thread) and opinions are relative to that. The 360 all year has been an even better example of this.

Didn't someone mention that not a single PSP game broke the 100k barrier!!!!!

Quite a number broke 100k.

NPD doesn't count Walmart, TRU and other retailers though, right?

They include them stores in their estimates though.

 

[justchris]

NPD doesn't count Walmart, TRU and other retailers though, right?

Once again, while NPD does not receive reports from Wal-Mart, they account for Wal-Marts sales using statistical sampling, which is vary accurate when you already possess a high percentage of the data.

Knowing how many Wal-Marts there are in the country and what type of shipments similar stores received makes their estimations even more accurate.

So yes, NPD does count Wal-Mart, they just don't get the exact numbers from them. The discrepancy is minimal.

 

[Magicpaint]

Rather anticlimatic.

So much build up and hype, but the numbers fall short. :/

Well, PS2 is still pulling amazing numbers, though.

Good to see Zelda selling so well. And Yoshi's island 2, too.

 

[ziran]

Rather anticlimatic.

So much build up and hype, but the numbers fall short. :/

i agree. nothing has lived up to the hype

...and imo the only surprising thing is how far nintendo missed their wii shipments.

 

[DemDereNads]

Probably already been said, but I'd rather not go through the 16 pages

PSP sales shouldn't be surprising really...

November 2006 outsold November 2005, and December 2006 sold less than December 2005...

Guess that's what happens when people blindly follow the "OMG, dead system!" herd .

And weird, it seems there's actually more PS3s than Wiis in the US... What the hell is up with Wii production? That 5 hours I camped out for Wii launch was very worth while at this point

 

[ShutEye]

I'm not as entertained as I had hoped. Me sad.

And what the hell is constraining Wii Manufactoring? Mass Pikmin Suicide?

 

[PleoMax]

So i was walking by on the electronics mega store and i see the PSP shelves and it has tons of games, huge shelve space and i'm like "Damm dude the PSP has a crapload of games" and my friend said "Yeah, too bad they all stay in there".

Insertia said the PSP is on the heels of the DS and i laughed....sorry.

 

[Busty]

But I wonder when we'll see some concrete PSP software numbers on the Interweb? Didn't someone mention that not a single PSP game broke the 100k barrier!!!!!

Quite a number broke 100k.

Interesting. I'm really eager (though I know that we can't ask for them) to try and find out how Sony's first party PSP (Killzone:Liberation primarily) offerings did and perhaps some of the larger thrid party releases such as MOH:Heroes.

While nothing looks like it broke out in terms of sales it strikes me that perhaps, as you said that it's slow and steady for PSP software rather than smash and grab.

Surely Sony must be thinking about a price drop for the PSP, but with those DEC sales numbers myabe they think they can hold out a little longer?

 

[ziran]

And weird, it seems there's actually more PS3s than Wiis in the US... What the hell is up with Wii production? That 5 hours I camped out for Wii launch was very worth while at this point

And what the hell is constraining Wii Manufactoring? Mass Pikmin Suicide?

It looks like it's a problem with distribution, not manufacture:

While the company reached its goal of manufacturing four million Wii systems by calendar year end, it could not distribute the full amount to retail locations around the world in the same period.

 

[Scalemail Ted]

It looks like it's a problem with distribution, not manufacture:

Nintendo also announced increased consolidated shipment forecasts for the full fiscal year as follows:
* Nintendo DS hardware from a previous 20m to 23m
* Nintendo DS software from a previous 82m to 100m
* Wii software (not including pack-in versions of Wii Sports)
from 17m to 21m

Wow! nice increase there if it is meet.

 

[snacknuts]

It looks like it's a problem with distribution, not manufacture:

They should be hijacking Sony's PS3 planes.

 

[Scotch]

The numbers are not correct for the Wii this month, period.


Something got screwed up.


There is no way only 1.1million wii's are in homes, alongside 1million zelda.

The wii numbers are not correct.

Denial <- You are here
Anger
Bargaining
Depression
Acceptance

 

[u_neek]

How much did the PS1 and PS2 sell in their first few months on the market?

 

[D.Lo]

Don't know if it's been covered, but look at this crap:

During December 2006, the 360 sold more than 1.1 million units, no doubt benefiting from scant supplies of the PS3 and the popularity of Gears of War. As of the end of 2006, Microsoft's console had sold just over 4.5 million units in the US and more than 10.4 million worldwide.

http://au.gamespot.com/news/6164106.html?sid=6164106&tag=latestnews;title;4

THIS is why this shipped/sold crap is important. Even Gamespot, which is supposed to have some idea, has just mixed real and imaginary figures in the same sentence.

 

[Xenon]

During December 2006, the 360 sold more than 1.1 million units, no doubt benefiting from scant supplies of the PS3 and the popularity of Gears of War. As of the end of 2006, Microsoft's console had sold just over 4.5 million units in the US and more than 10.4 million worldwide.

So what retail outlets does NPD not cover? I know it doesn't make sense to bring this up when compairing console sales. But when your trying to get total sales of a console it should be figured in right?

 

[urk]

[QUOTE="gamesindustry.biz]Sony is market leader but "Everyone's a winner" - Pachter

Wedbush Morgan Securities has told GamesIndustry.biz that there are discrepancies between NPD's latest US sales data and the figures released by some retailers and publishers - including Nintendo.

"The numbers were surprising to me. I truly expected higher sell-through, and there are a few things about the figures that raise questions," said analyst Michael Pachter.

"There was a discrepancy between the number of Wii units claimed to have been shipped by Nintendo to North America - approximately 2 million - and the cumulative sell-through measured by NPD - approximately 1.1 million.

"This difference alone is almost impossible to reconcile," he added.

Pachter said he was also surprised by the 19 per cent year-on-year drop in PlayStation 2 software sales, observing, "PS2 software has been running flat year-over-year since June, and this kind of decline was not expected.

"Again, it's not easy to reconcile NPD's figures with other company claims. For example, GameStop claimed its software sales were up 18 per cent in November-December. However, NPD figures show that November-December software sales growth was only 6 per cent."

Pachter conceded that it was possible GameStop had increased its market share considerably over the two month period. However, he continued, "Given comments from Best Buy and Circuit City about their sales, I find that possibility to be extremely remote."

According to Pachter, Sony had "a great month" and was the market leader, while Nintendo also enjoyed bumper sales was "clearly number two". It was also a good period for Microsoft, he went on, which secured "the largest share of next-gen console hardware and software sales".

In short, Pachter concluded, "Everyone's a winner."
[/QUOTE]

 

[shaowebb]

I want a WII really bad after playing one and I can see it selling more and more as more titles enter its Kiosks...sadly Culdcept Saga is going to the 360 in May and that means I wont be buying the WII until I can afford another system again after that.

 

[antoniogaud]

Wedbush Morgan Securities has told GamesIndustry.biz that there are discrepancies between NPD's latest US sales data and the figures released by some retailers and publishers - including Nintendo.

"The numbers were surprising to me. I truly expected higher sell-through, and there are a few things about the figures that raise questions," said analyst Michael Pachter.

"There was a discrepancy between the number of Wii units claimed to have been shipped by Nintendo to North America - approximately 2 million - and the cumulative sell-through measured by NPD - approximately 1.1 million.

"This difference alone is almost impossible to reconcile," he added.

Houston, we have a problema.

 

[soul creator]

"Again, it's not easy to reconcile NPD's figures with other company claims. For example, GameStop claimed its software sales were up 18 per cent in November-December. However, NPD figures show that November-December software sales growth was only 6 per cent."

uh, wouldn't that be because Gamestop makes an absolute killing on used game sales (especially to the kind of people buying PS2's at this point), something NPD doesn't account for?

 

[Pureauthor]

Does it really matter? In this industry, perception>>>> reality. The game companies use the NPD charts to make their development decisions, not Gamestop's used game business.

 

[antoniogaud]

Does it really matter?

Well, yeah. Doesn't this make this whole discussion moot? I must admit that I have a lot of questions if this is true.