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NPD Sales Results for January 2015 [PS4 #1, Nintendo Numbers, XB1 Minimum]

P

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
CosmicQueso said:
Are you saying Bayonetta.... has legs?

You made me look up what units make a top 10 on Wii U in January. Yeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeesh.
Click to expand...

Let's see:

Mario Kart 8
Bayonetta 2
Smash Bros
Captain Toad
Just Dance
Mario 3D World
Hyrule Warriors?
Lego Batman 3?

Hmmm...what else...

Skylanders? Wind Waker?
 
F

Final Verdict

Member
BigDug13 said:
For sales of retail physical games, yes this seems to be correct. We don't know overall sales across all game types of digital.
Click to expand...

Just curious, why are you and other people sugesting PS4 might have higher digital sales in the US?
Didn't a lot of the early adopters who jumped ship to PS4 get it because they didn't wan't to go digital, and feared MS might later go back to their always online ideas?

Did Sony announce that their PSN sales spiked?
(I mean, I would expect digital to reflect physical in terms of ratio, but who knows?)
 
G

ghibli99

Member
Damn... as a Nintendo fan (who owns everything except an XBO), perhaps ignorance is bliss. I've enjoyed more games on the Wii U than any other console over the past year+, but it's just insane how outclassed it is numbers-wise.
 
J

John Harker

Definitely doesn't make things up as he goes along.
Final Verdict said:
Could you tell us how SSO is doing?
Is it dead, or still selling steady?

I think lifetime was like 280k in Dec.
Is it close to the 300k mark?
Click to expand...

I'll tackle this one since I really enjoy the game... but no, unfortunately, it had a massive drop of in Jan. It's like 8-9k short.
 
S

Special C

Member
BigDug13 said:
For sales of retail physical games, yes this seems to be correct. We don't know overall sales across all game types of digital.
Click to expand...

I would assume that the digital sales parallel with physical pretty well. However it's conceivable that Xbone could have sold more software considering the gap is pretty small.
 
J

John Harker

Definitely doesn't make things up as he goes along.
Terbinator said:
Christ, probably less than 500K WW? :| Crazy how poorly that and FH2 did.
Click to expand...

ya know, I keep forgetting FH2 was on Xbox 360 too.
I suppose when you look at them both, it's not doing that poorly. It had a good December after a weak debut. In my opinion of course.
 
S

Salex_

Member
ghibli99 said:
Damn... as a Nintendo fan (who owns everything except an XBO), perhaps ignorance is bliss. I've enjoyed more games on the Wii U than any other console over the past year+, but it's just insane how outclassed it is numbers-wise.
Click to expand...

When you realize the amount of games and genres the Wii U isn't getting, it's not hard to understand. The chances of appealing to a massive audience with specific tastes with a dozen or so games in a year is slim.

Sports, FPS, Western RPGs, Open world games, fighting games, etc are all either not there or has little to no options. You also have to consider the importance of online gaming and people wanting to play with their friends.
 
M

Mpl90

Two copies sold? That's not a bomb guys, stop trolling!!!
Bayonetta 2 selling other 10,000 in January? Heh, this means lower than 145,000 (probably slightly lower) at retail and (going just by October digital sales) slightly lower than 152,000 in total. That's assuming it didn't sell digital units at all in Nov-Dec-Jan, though (I mean, digital sales have probably been VERY low but not zero...I hope :lol ).

So, given what said one month ago, Bayonetta 2 sold in 4 months more than what the PS3 version of the first Bayonetta did in 18 months (360 version did 200k, while PS3 did 150k). So far, from what I've seen, the game's price hasn't decreased yet that much on Amazon.com, so...it seems it's having some legs, after all.
 
C

CosmicQueso

Member
Final Verdict said:
Just curious, why are you and other people sugesting PS4 might have higher digital sales in the US?
Click to expand...

That's not quite what's being said. A sample of titles have had slightly higher digital splits on PS4 than Xone.

The difference in packaged SW between the two in Jan is <5%. Assuming Digital share of total has been slightly stronger on PS4 for those small sample of titles some in the thread know about, we might be looking at a dead heat in overall across titles with packaged & digital components.

Truth is no one knows because a full data set does not exist.
 
F

Final Verdict

Member
John Harker said:
I'll tackle this one since I really enjoy the game... but no, unfortunately, it had a massive drop of in Jan. It's like 8-9k short.
Click to expand...

allan-bh said:
280k is only standalone version. We never had any info about white console bundle sales.
Click to expand...
Thanks!
I really enjoyed it too (which it why I worry about sales because I would love to see either a sequel, or spiritual successor for it someday.

CosmicQueso said:
That's not quite what's being said. A sample of titles have had slightly higher digital splits on PS4 than Xone.

The difference in packaged SW between the two in Jan is <5%. Assuming Digital share of total has been slightly stronger on PS4 for those small sample of titles some in the thread know about, we might be looking at a dead heat in overall across titles with packaged & digital components.

Truth is no one knows because a full data set does not exist.
Click to expand...
Ohh, ok thanks.
I was just confused where the info was coming from or if it was just speculation.

Its nice to see that digital is really taking off on PS4, though I do find it really surprising that X1 was so close in retail sales.
I guess that it is maintaining it's high tie ratio even after the holidays.

Come to think of it, do you know how the PS4/X1's tie ratios compare to last generation?
It seems they are doing good, but looking at it in a vacuum does no good..
 
E

Elandyll

Banned
Alebrije said:
I guess by june thanks to Bloodborne and the order
Click to expand...

??

With the very basic premise of the US representing around 33% of the PS4 sales, the WW sales of PS4s in January were around 600k (rough estimate).

With the relatively high profile releases in February, it is very likely that the PS4 will blow past 20m units by mid March.
 
A

Aquamarine

Member
Anyone a Skylanders fan or an ATVI shareholder?

Because you're not going to like this.


Skylanders is down -6% YOY in January and -19% YOY LTD.


Revenue is much worse, with a massive -20% YOY decline in January.



This is the FOURTH consecutive month that Skylanders has been down YOY (aka. since launch).

Sell-through of Skylanders is weak. Like, a good deal below 100K weak.

I know Activision makes up for it in toy sales...but still...looking at the numbers isn't giving me much hope for ATVI's growth potential with the franchise.

I wonder at what point they're just going to cut it off. We all know they have a propensity to axe declining franchises (Tony Hawk, Guitar Hero, etc.)
 
O

Opiate

Member
Aquamarine said:
Anyone a Skylanders fan or an ATVI shareholder?

Because you're not going to like this.


Skylanders is down -6% YOY in January and -19% YOY LTD.


Revenue is much worse, with a massive -20% YOY decline in January.



This is the FOURTH consecutive month that Skylanders has been down YOY (aka. since launch).

Sell-through of Skylanders is weak. Like, a good deal below 100K weak.

I know Activision makes up for it in toy sales...but still...looking at the numbers isn't giving me much hope for ATVI's growth potential with the franchise.

I wonder at what point they're just going to cut it off. We all know they have a propensity to axe declining franchises (Tony Hawk, Guitar Hero, etc.)
Click to expand...

It's a franchise that performed best on Nintendo platforms to begin with -- the decline of Nintendo has likely hurt that franchise in the same way that Call of Duty would be hurt if MS/Sony fell apart and only Nintendo remained.
 
A

Aquamarine

Member
Opiate said:
It's a franchise that performed best on Nintendo platforms to begin with -- the decline of Nintendo has likely hurt that franchise in the same way that Call of Duty would be hurt if MS/Sony fell apart and only Nintendo remained.
Click to expand...

Interesting. That is indeed partially attributable to Skylanders's decline.

But we see similar LTD YOY declines from Call of Duty.

I'm sure we would all agree that the PS4 / XB1 physical retail ecosystems are pretty healthy, all things considered.

And yet, COD is suffering through a -17% cumulative YOY decline from Ghosts (despite a growth January), and a -40% cumulative YOY decline from Black Ops 2.

Of course, you could attribute lower COD sales to higher digital share in the core market, which doesn't really apply to Skylanders.

But it's still points to...what I think is growing market frustration in the stagnation of Activision's core franchises.

Yearly releases are really starting to catch up with them. Part of the reason why Kotick is betting so big on Destiny.
 
C

CosmicQueso

Member
Final Verdict said:
Come to think of it, do you know how the PS4/X1's tie ratios compare to last generation?
It seems they are doing good, but looking at it in a vacuum does no good..
Click to expand...

Meh... tough to do the comparison since last time it was ALL packaged, and this time many games are being bought digitally. So yeah, I believe attach is still doing very well, but without digital it's very tough to say how well.

PS3 in '07 was high 3's, X360 in '06 was mid 4's. Last year both new ones were in low 3's.

Hardware is well ahead of last gen's pace, NPD said in their statement +60%.

Software pricing was just slightly lower for the new ones in year 2 versus last gen.
 
O

Opiate

Member
Aquamarine said:
Interesting. That is indeed partially attributable to Skylanders's decline.

But we see similar LTD YOY declines from Call of Duty.

I'm sure we would all agree that the PS4 / XB1 physical retail ecosystems are pretty healthy, all things considered.

And yet, COD is suffering through a -17% cumulative YOY decline from Ghosts (despite a growth January), and a -40% cumulative YOY decline from Black Ops 2.

Of course, you could attribute lower COD sales to higher digital share in the core market, which doesn't really apply to Skylanders.

But it's still points to...what I think is growing market frustration in the stagnation of Activision's core franchises.

Yearly releases are really starting to catch up with them. Part of the reason why Kotick is betting so big on Destiny.
Click to expand...

Yes, I was definitely not suggesting that every franchise decline for any company is attributable to Nintendo's struggles, just to be clear.

But it happens more often than people realize. UDraw was a big hit on Wii, then tanked so badly on PS3/360 that it was significantly responsible for the dissolution of THQ, for instance. There is clearly a type of game that sells best on Nintendo's systems. It's unfortunate for Nintendo (and probably not just a coincidence) that so few major, well known third party developers focus on these types of games.
 
J

John Harker

Definitely doesn't make things up as he goes along.
Aquamarine said:
But it's still points to...what I think is growing market frustration in the stagnation of Activision's core franchises.

Yearly releases are really starting to catch up with them. Part of the reason why Kotick is betting so big on Destiny.
Click to expand...

I don't think that's the primary culprit.
Competition has caught up. "FPS" as a genre has never been more popular. If CoD was still the only big player in the market, I would not expect to see such declines.

But games like Battlefield and Far Cry and even Titanfall and Destiny have redefine what an FPS can be, with the production values and marketing budgets to compete whereas CoD had that mountain to itself in the past.

Those games have such long retention plans built into them, too, splitting a playerbase.
I don't think annualisation is the #1 cause, in fact I actually think annualisatoin ultimate grows your brand. When managed correctly, you keep people engaged longer and you increase ARPU through various means that you don't even lose revenue off a declining initial sales base.

But anyway. Competition is good. There's so much money to be had there.
 
A

Aquamarine

Member
Opiate said:
Yes, I was definitely not suggesting that every franchise decline for any company is attributable to Nintendo's struggles, just to be clear.

But it happens more often than people realize. UDraw was a big hit on Wii, then tanked so badly on PS3/360 that it was significantly responsible for the dissolution of THQ, for instance. There is clearly a type of game that sells best on Nintendo's systems. It's unfortunate for Nintendo (and probably not just a coincidence) that so few major, well known third party developers focus on these types of games.
Click to expand...

Indeed.

If we were to look across the isle to the other big competitor (Disney Infinity 2.0), that too is suffering similar relative losses to Skylanders.

Another factor might be the proliferation of Amiibo on Nintendo platforms. As Nintendo burrows their way into the toys-to-life market, that's inevitably going to dilute the market and result in further losses.

So when you compound a continually-declining Nintendo market with franchise fatigue and Amiibos taking up some of the pie, you're going to end up with significant losses.
 
A

Aquamarine

Member
John Harker said:
I don't think that's the primary culprit.
Competition has caught up. "FPS" as a genre has never been more popular. If CoD was still the only big player in the market, I would not expect to see such declines.

But games like Battlefield and Far Cry and even Titanfall and Destiny have redefine what an FPS can be, with the production values and marketing budgets to compete whereas CoD had that mountain to itself in the past.

Those games have such long retention plans built into them, too, splitting a playerbase.
I don't think annualisation is the #1 cause, in fact I actually think annualisatoin ultimate grows your brand. When managed correctly, you keep people engaged longer and you increase ARPU through various means that you don't even lose revenue off a declining initial sales base.

But anyway. Competition is good. There's so much money to be had there.
Click to expand...

Hmm. Very interesting. Didn't really think of competition all that much. The increased toys-to-life competition and the increased FPS competition seem to go hand-in-hand with each other.

Ultimately it's going to be a mix of things.

Do you think Activision is effectively managing their COD brand? Mismanagement might be another culprit (since you said "when managed correctly," ARPU increases).

If you look at COD AW revenue, it's -21% LTD from Ghosts, a greater relative decrease than units.
 
T

The Shogun

Banned
I do expect YoY growth for COD in late 2015 - 2016. Black Ops 3 will help.

After that though? Infinity Ward and Sledgehammers next games? Eh
 
O

Opiate

Member
I think you could say the same of Halo; that was an explosively growing franchise which stalled in sales and now has begun to decline.

Some of this may be attributable to Bungie leaving, but the sales arc was already in motion before they made their exit. It doesn't mean Bungie is irrelevant, but it probably means the same market forces are at work there: Halo was once the only AAA FPS franchise of any kind, but is now one of many.
 
N

Nirolak

Mrgrgr
Opiate said:
I think you could say the same of Halo; that was an explosively growing franchise which stalled in sales and now has begun to decline.

Some of this may be attributable to Bungie leaving, but the sales arc was already in motion before they made their exit. It doesn't mean Bungie is irrelevant, but it probably means the same market forces are at work there: Halo was once the only AAA FPS franchise of any kind, but is now one of many.
Click to expand...

Competitive arena shooters aren't exactly the style du jour in 2015 either.

Bungie shifted their gameplay style toward co-op loot RPG FPS, following in the footsteps of Borderlands, to adapt to the changing market.
 
N

Nirolak

Mrgrgr
Opiate said:
I wonder what percentage of console game sales can now loosely be described as "shooters." I'd include FPS in that (obviously) but also things like Gears of War or Uncharted.
Click to expand...

I guess it depends how far we go.

GTA could be argued as a shooter as well given how it works these days versus the PS2 era.
 
N

Nirolak

Mrgrgr
Opiate said:
Yep, I agree with that. It's certainly on the border, at least.
Click to expand...

It's kind of what has made pure third person shooters harder to sell as well.

As Action-Adventure games and RPGs move more heavily into that arena, people expect "more" out of a third person shooter than just shooting people for eight hours - usually in a linear scripted path - and then having some competitive multiplayer.

Opiate said:
Was Watch Dogs a shooter? Honest question. Never interested me, don't know anything about it.
Click to expand...
Yes in the sense that the core combat mechanics are third person cover shooting.

You can technically go through the game non-violently or focus more on stealth however.

There's also driving and an open world. It works a lot like GTA in many respects.
 
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