Hahaha, yeah I'm just fucking with you mostly. It's impressive how Sega was able to support that box with such a varied range of content, they filled genre gaps with in house IP. That is something Nintendo is also going to need to do, plug the genre gaps in it's console catalogue.
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NPD Sales Results for July 2013 [Up2: 3DS Minimum, AC:NL, LM2/NSMBU LTDs, Xbox 360]
- Thread starter Nirolak
- Start date
Hahaha, yeah I'm just fucking with you mostly. It's impressive how Sega was able to support that box with such a varied range of content, they filled genre gaps with in house IP. That is something Nintendo is also going to need to do, plug the genre gaps in it's console catalogue.
I can see that metalslimer may have been talking about the US market (and he confirmed that he was), but I certainly wasn't when I made my initial comment about the matter to you earlier in this thread.
Dalthien said:
Anyway, I just finally caught up with your initial reply back to me.
We'll see. As of now, the 3DS+Vita is right about on par with GBA+Wonderswan+NGage at a similar point in time. Almost eerily so, in fact. The 3DS+Vita combo may fall slightly behind over the next year or two (or maybe not, with Pokemon + possible price cuts/new models -- plus anything the Vita adds over the next year or two is pretty much pure bonus, since the Wonderswan and NGage were pretty much dead by this similar point in 2003), but even if it does, the difference will be relatively small, and the 3DS should have an extra year or so to itself on the market to close up any gap that might arise. I'm actually finding it a bit odd to see you actually taking the position that the 3DS+Vita is some kind of contraction from the previous handheld norm (excluding the crazy figures from last gen) - unless you're specifically referring to the US only, in which case I'm not sure why you responded to my post, since I clearly said that I was talking about the full, worldwide handheld market.
Who said that a trailing twelve month cumulative total is some sort of slanted absurd metric? There's nothing at all wrong with that metric. I even used trailing twelve-month metrics in my reply to you to show that the fall-off this gen has been more severe and aggressive than the fall-off from the previous gen.
The numbers you used were perfectly valid, and your conclusion from them was reasonable. I was showing that other numbers can also be used to allow a completely different, yet still also reasonable conclusion to be drawn. The most extreme portion of the drop-off started 4 months ago - and hasn't shown any signs of letting up at all during that 4-month span. Maybe that's a seasonal fluke, as you suggested. Or maybe something really severe really did take hold 4 months ago. What if August's numbers are down 25% from 2006 as well? And September? All of a sudden, it can't be written off as a seasonal fluke, but as a prelude to a really ugly 12-month trailing total on the way.
That's cool. As I said, that's a reasonable conclusion to draw. But I can totally see where Anihawk is coming from as well, and I pointed out some numbers that help buttress his position. That's all.
shinra-bansho
Member
On the matter of worldwide versus US, I missed the mention of worldwide in your earlier comment. I assumed you were talking about a reversion in the US and Western markets, NPD thread and all that. It's quite clear that handhelds are dominating the Japanese gaming industry. And while in a sense it doesn't matter where the sales come from as long as they're coming, I think that at a certain point expansion of handheld gaming in the Japanese market won't be able to counter balance the contraction of handheld gaming in Western markets that seems to be occurring due to the advent of readily available substitute devices with much cheaper gaming experiences. I could be completely wrong, maybe Pokemon will completely reverse this trend, or the Vita will find some sort of niche (lol).
On the topic of home consoles, I would say that if we don't see a reversal in cumulative home console sales after the remaining two systems release, as we haven't for the handheld market, then it's most certainly a sign of a contraction beyond simply the loss of the expanded audience the Wii brought in, and something systemic has taken hold in the market rather than simply generational length and price hindering these old consoles from selling. I fully expect a contraction from the height of this generation - there doesn't seem like there'll be anything quite like the Wii; but at present I don't really see anything in particular inhibiting the PS4 and XB1 taking home consoles back to the ~10M per annum level.
Although whether that in itself is enough is of course another question, considering increased budgets.
On the topic of home consoles, I would say that if we don't see a reversal in cumulative home console sales after the remaining two systems release, as we haven't for the handheld market, then it's most certainly a sign of a contraction beyond simply the loss of the expanded audience the Wii brought in, and something systemic has taken hold in the market rather than simply generational length and price hindering these old consoles from selling. I fully expect a contraction from the height of this generation - there doesn't seem like there'll be anything quite like the Wii; but at present I don't really see anything in particular inhibiting the PS4 and XB1 taking home consoles back to the ~10M per annum level.
Although whether that in itself is enough is of course another question, considering increased budgets.
Aquamarine
Member
Code:
[B]DREAMCAST, NORTH AMERICAN RELEASES WII U, NORTH AMERICAN RELEASES[/B]
[B][U]TITLE NPD MONTH TITLE R. DATE TYPE[/U][/B]
Aero Wings Sep-99 Assassin's Creed III 11/13/2012 Hybrid
Air Force Delta Sep-99 Batman: Arkham City - Armored Edition 11/18/2012 Hybrid
Blue Stinger Sep-99 Ben 10: Omniverse 11/18/2012 Hybrid
Cart Flag To Flag Sep-99 Call of Duty: Black Ops II 11/18/2012 Retail
Expendable Sep-99 Chasing Aurora 11/18/2012 eShop
House Of The Dead 2 Sep-99 Darksiders II 11/18/2012 Hybrid
Hydro Thunder Sep-99 Disney Epic Mickey 2: The Power of Two 11/18/2012 Hybrid
Monaco Grand Prix Sep-99 ESPN Sports Connection 11/18/2012 Hybrid
Mortal Kombat Gold Sep-99 FIFA Soccer 13 11/18/2012 Hybrid
Nfl 2K Sep-99 Funky Barn 11/18/2012 Hybrid
Nfl Blitz 2000 Sep-99 Game Party Champions 11/18/2012 Hybrid
Pen Pen Trilcelon Sep-99 Just Dance 4 11/18/2012 Hybrid
Power Stone Sep-99 Little Inferno 11/18/2012 eShop
Ready 2 Rumble Boxing Sep-99 Madden NFL 13 11/18/2012 Hybrid
Sonic Adventure Sep-99 Mass Effect 3: Special Edition 11/18/2012 Retail
Soul Calibur Sep-99 Mighty Switch Force! Hyper Drive Edition 11/18/2012 eShop
Tnn Hardcore Heat Sep-99 Nano Assault Neo 11/18/2012 eShop
Tokyo Xtreme Racer Sep-99 NBA 2K13 11/18/2012 Hybrid
Trickstyle Sep-99 New Super Mario Bros. U 11/18/2012 Hybrid
King Of Fighters 1999 Oct-99 Ninja Gaiden 3: Razor's Edge 11/18/2012 Hybrid
Marvel Vs Capcom Oct-99 Nintendo Land 11/18/2012 Hybrid
Sega Bass Fishing Oct-99 Rabbids Land 11/18/2012 Hybrid
Speed Devils Oct-99 Scribblenauts Unlimited 11/18/2012 Hybrid
Virtua Fighter 3Tb Oct-99 SiNG Party 11/18/2012 Hybrid
Armada Nov-99 Skylanders Giants 11/18/2012 Retail
Centipede Nov-99 Sonic & All-Stars Racing Transformed 11/18/2012 Hybrid
Dynamite Cop Nov-99 Tank! Tank! Tank! 11/18/2012 Hybrid
Nba 2K Nov-99 Tekken Tag Tournament 2: Wii U Edition 11/18/2012 Hybrid
Nba Showtime: On Nbc Nov-99 Transformers Prime: The Game 11/18/2012 Retail
Psychic Force 2012 Nov-99 Trine 2: Director's Cut 11/18/2012 eShop
Rippin' Riders Nov-99 Warriors Orochi 3 Hyper 11/18/2012 Hybrid
Sega Rally 2 Nov-99 Wheel of Fortune 11/18/2012 Hybrid
Slave Zero Nov-99 Wipeout 3 11/18/2012 Retail
Soul Fighter Nov-99 Your Shape: Fitness Evolved 2013 11/18/2012 Hybrid
South Park: Chefs Shack Nov-99 ZombiU 11/18/2012 Hybrid
Toy Commander Nov-99 Cabela's Dangerous Hunts 2013 12/4/2012 Retail
WWE Attitude Nov-99 Family Party: 30 Great Games Obstacle Arcade 12/4/2012 Hybrid
Elemental Gimmic Gear Dec-99 Marvel Avengers: Battle for Earth 12/4/2012 Hybrid
Evolution Dec-99 Rapala Pro Bass Fishing 12/4/2012 Retail
Fighting Force 2 Dec-99 Rise of the Guardians: The Video Game 12/4/2012 Hybrid
Incoming Dec-99 007 Legends 12/11/2012 Retail
Nfl Quarterback Club 2000 Dec-99 Jeopardy! 12/14/2012 Hybrid
Re-Volt Dec-99 The Cave 1/22/2013 eShop
Sevnth Cross Evolution Dec-99 Puddle 1/31/2013 eShop
Shadow Man Dec-99 Fist of the North Star: Ken's Rage 2 2/7/2013 eShop
Test Drive 6 Dec-99 Wii Street U 2/14/2013 eShop
Worms Armageddon Dec-99 Bit.Trip Presents...Runner2 2/26/2013 eShop
Legacy of Kain: Soul Reaver Jan-00 The Amazing Spider-Man 3/5/2013 Retail
Tee-Off Jan-00 LEGO City: Undercover 3/18/2013 Hybrid
Wetrix Jan-00 Monster Hunter 3 Ultimate 3/19/2013 Hybrid
Zombie Revenge Jan-00 Need for Speed: Most Wanted U 3/19/2013 Hybrid
Crazy Taxi Feb-00 The Croods: Prehistoric Party! 3/19/2013 Hybrid
Nhl 2K Feb-00 The Walking Dead: Survival Instinct 3/19/2013 Retail
Wild Metal Feb-00 ZEN Pinball 2 3/21/2013 eShop
Carrier Mar-00 Toki Tori 2 4/4/2013 eShop
Chuchu Rocket Mar-00 Injustice: Gods Among Us 4/16/2013 Hybrid
Dead Or Alive 2 Mar-00 Rayman Legends Challenges App 4/25/2013 eShop
Ecw: Hardcore Revolution Mar-00 Balloon Fight 4/26/2013 eShop
Mdk 2 Mar-00 Donkey Kong Jr. 4/26/2013 eShop
Rayman 2 Mar-00 Excitebike 4/26/2013 eShop
Resident Evil: Code Veronica Mar-00 F-Zero 4/26/2013 eShop
Roadsters Mar-00 Ice Climber 4/26/2013 eShop
Sword Of Berserk: Guts Mar-00 Kirby's Adventure 4/26/2013 eShop
Time Stalkers Mar-00 Punch-Out!! 4/26/2013 eShop
Tomb Raider: Revelation Mar-00 Super Mario World 4/26/2013 eShop
Virtua Striker 2 Mar-00 Wii U Panorama View 4/26/2013 eShop
F1 World Grand Prix Apr-00 Kung Fu Rabbit 5/2/2013 eShop
Gundam Side Story 0079 Apr-00 Mega Man 5/2/2013 eShop
Jojo's Bizarre Venture Apr-00 Pac-man 5/2/2013 eShop
Maken X Apr-00 Solomon's Key 5/9/2013 eShop
Plasma Sword Apr-00 Xevious 5/9/2013 eShop
Star Wars Episode 1: Racer Apr-00 Super Metroid 5/15/2013 eShop
4 Wheel Thunder May-00 Super Ghouls 'n Ghosts 5/16/2013 eShop
Grand Theft Auto 2 May-00 Super Mario Bros. 2 5/16/2013 eShop
Street Fighter Alpha 3 May-00 Fast & Furious: Showdown 5/21/2013 Retail
Striker Pro 2000 May-00 LEGO Batman 2: DC Super Heroes 5/21/2013 Hybrid
T.Clancys Rainbow Six May-00 Resident Evil: Revelations 5/21/2013 Hybrid
Tony Hawk Pro Skater May-00 Sniper Elite V2 5/21/2013 Retail
Arcades Greatest Hits Jun-00 Kirby Super Star 5/23/2013 eShop
Bust A Move 4 Jun-00 Kirby's Dream Course 5/23/2013 eShop
Draconus: Cult Of Wyrm Jun-00 Kirby's Dream Land 3 5/23/2013 eShop
Evolution 2 Jun-00 Ghosts 'n Goblins 5/30/2013 eShop
Gauntlet Legends Jun-00 Mega Man X 5/30/2013 eShop
Industrial Spy Operation Jun-00 Spelunker 6/6/2013 eShop
Marvel Vs. Capcom 2 Jun-00 Yoshi 6/12/2013 eShop
Mr. Driller Jun-00 Mutant Mudds Deluxe 6/13/2013 eShop
Nightmare Creatures 2 Jun-00 New Super Luigi U 6/20/2013 eShop
Omikron: The Nomad Soul Jun-00 Mario Bros. 6/20/2013 eShop
Silver Jun-00 Wrecking Crew 6/20/2013 eShop
South Park Rally Jun-00 Game & Wario 6/23/2013 Hybrid
Space Channel 5 Jun-00 Vegas Stakes 6/27/2013 eShop
Spirit Of Speed 1937 Jun-00 Pilotwings 7/4/2013 eShop
Street Fighter 3: Double Jun-00 Metroid 7/11/2013 eShop
Super Magnetic Neo Jun-00 Star Wars Pinball 7/11/2013 eShop
Toy Story 2 Jun-00 Donkey Kong 7/15/2013 eShop
Virtual On: Oratorio Jun-00 Turbo: Super Stunt Squad 7/16/2013 Hybrid
Wacky Races Jun-00 EarthBound 7/18/2013 eShop
The Smurfs 2 7/23/2013 Hybrid
Kid Icarus 7/25/2013 eShop
Cloudberry Kingdom 8/1/2013 eShop
Harvest Moon 8/1/2013 eShop
Pikmin 3 8/4/2013 Hybrid
Disney Planes 8/6/2013 Hybrid
Spin the Bottle: Bumpie's Party 8/8/2013 eShop
Romance of the Three Kingdoms IV 8/8/2013 eShop
DuckTales: Remastered 8/13/2013 eShop
Galaga 8/15/2013 eShop
Tom Clancy's Splinter Cell: Blacklist 8/20/2013 HybridHope this helps.
For next gen, that may be true. But it doesn't matter much this gen. The 3DS will continue falling behind the GBA in the US, and will continue pulling further ahead from the GBA in Japan (particularly once we get to the 2015/2005 comparison). Ultimately, I don't see much reason to believe that the 3DS won't reach the 81M that the GBA did, or especially that 3DS+Vita won't reach the ~85M that GBA+Wonderswan+NGage reached.
Hmm...just for the US? On a sustained basis? That seems to be an awfully aggressive target. As of now, the 360 is averaging 5.08M per year, and the PS3 is 3.62M per year. Combined, that's only 8.7M per year.
In fact, looking at calendar years, the PS3+360 combo only got above 10M twice (11.1M in 2010, and 11.8M in 2011) this entire generation. So you're expecting the PS4+XB1 to perform a fair bit better than the PS3+360 combo did in the US.
Edit - looking through the Wii numbers, the Wii topped 10M by itself in 2008, and did 9.6M (better than all but those 2 years I mentioned of the PS3+360 combo) by itself in 2009. Fucking crazy!
shinra-bansho
Member
I should note again, I'm referring to TTMs. And no, not by themselves, at least not initially. I don't think the PS4 or XB1 will reach the 10M mark alone for a while, but in combination with their predecessors I expect "Sony and Microsoft's consoles" should return from the TTM of ~7.5M it's plummeting towards back to the 10M level or higher.
I'm feeling too lazy to draw up my own graph so here's one from one of JVM's articles:
With regard to their performance alone, I would anticipate something between the PS2/XBX's more rapid rise and the stymied slope of the 7th gen HD systems. And that they will reach and surpass 10M TTM hardware sales, as their predecessors did.
Ah, okay - that makes more sense. Even then, I suspect the TTM might actually be down to something like ~7.1M by the end of October - and even if you add up all the systems (XB1+360+PS4+PS3) together for November, the TTM will still fall below 7M, because I have a hard time seeing those 4 systems doing 2M+ this November (maybe if the PS4 can get out by the end of October, and have the full month - and a healthy supply of availability). It will be a long climb, because the bottom has dropped out REALLY fast and hard on the current systems.
Not unreasonable. I fear a pretty steep drop-off sometime next year though once the early adopters have bought in. I can see a strong start for both systems - it's been a LONG time, and there are a good number of people ready to move into something new. But the prices are just really high again (similar to the start of last gen). 400+500 is awfully similar to the 300/400 + 500/600 prices that we had last gen - with an economy that is worse, and much stronger competition from PC gaming than existed at the start of last gen.
It will be fun to see what happens!
I'm feeling too lazy to draw up my own graph so here's one from one of JVM's articles:
With regard to their performance alone, I would anticipate something between the PS2/XBX's more rapid rise and the stymied slope of the 7th gen HD systems. And that they will reach and surpass 10M TTM hardware sales, as their predecessors did.
i wonder what that graph would look like if microsoft did not put a bullet in the original xbox. that thing was selling extremely well in 2005, and likely would have continued to do so in 2006 and 2007. it essentially forced anyone in the market for an xbox system to get a 360 instead- there was no competition from microsoft's own previous gen. of course the system was stupidly expensive, so i can't blame them for doing so. at least they learned to pass along the costs to the consumers the next time around.
pieatorium
Member
the blue line is already trending downward quite a bit before 360 launch, falling behind the ps360line a year before that. it would have made for a slightly slower decline i suppose?
it probably would have at least been flat year to year instead of declining by 2m between the 360 and ps3 launch. after the 360 launch, you're basically comparing two consoles to the ps2.
pieatorium
Member
even though it was dropping a million yoy prior to 360 launch before xbox was killed?
michaelius
Banned
As far as consumer interest is concerned Wii U is in extremly similar situation to Dreamcast with all the attention centered on ps4/xbone.
okay i definitely confused myself there. the xbox outsold the ps2 in 2004 several times, and microsoft killed the momentum of the system in 2005 (no first party games or price drops). the ps2 then picked up the slack in 2005 as best it could. it was on a decline, but the xbox declined rapidly.
part of what helped was that the system launched almost a year after it had been out in japan.
Refreshment.01
Member
Interesting end of the year incoming. The bubdle that makes the most sense is the one with Wind Waker HD since that game is already pay for.
That's one of the courses im waiting for them to take, to be honest, i was expecting/wishing for them to take that path with the Wii U, even more so, considering they refused to go with more a more "common" setup like both Sony and MS did this time.
Nintendo won't release an hybrid console due to their fear of cutting one revenue stream. So this what makes sense to them a portable and a home console with similar architecture but with different power envelopes in mind. I would like for them to start going in this direction right now with the 3DS and Wii U. These 2 systems might not share similar architectures but they do share the exactly same input set up.
But that's something they can't do internally and aren't doing even with external help. It's weird they greenlighted the W101 since unlike Bayonetta it doesn't feel a gap in their line up. The next big release after Pikmin looks like yet another similar game, not distinguishing "visually" from the ones they have been punpimg out since release. The console launched with a colorful mini game compilation and platformer, followed by another colorful game compilation and platformer, then Pikmin, W101, Wind Waker, a Donkey Kong platformer and closes the year with... another platformer. All fantastic games, yet they give the perception of not much variety.
John Harker
Definitely doesn't make things up as he goes along.
Guys looking at sales performance in a vacuum is not taking into account the whole picture, you should filter in market growth and contraction factors during each generation you are comparing
overall spending habits those years are not the same, competitive analysis should look at the size of the ocean and how many other fish are swimming in otherwise what are you trying to learn?
Success in a $20bn market may not be the same in a $50bn market, especially when market share is factored In
overall spending habits those years are not the same, competitive analysis should look at the size of the ocean and how many other fish are swimming in otherwise what are you trying to learn?
Success in a $20bn market may not be the same in a $50bn market, especially when market share is factored In
Magic Mushroom
Member
Many people seem to genuinely love it. Didn't it do well at GAF's GotY list as well? Heck, RPS even gave it game of the year.
I really don't want to return to one screen RPGs. Having so much information, maps, and equipment screens open at all times is so much better for games like Zelda, Fire Emblem, and Shin Megami Tensei. Would foldable screen tech even be an option they could be messing with in R&D at this point in time?
T
thepotatoman
Unconfirmed Member
For exclusives:
November 6 - Capcom vs. SNK: Millennium Fight 2000
November 13 - Skies of Arcadia
December 6 - Grandia II
And then January 2001 was Phantasy Star Online.
So it wasn't a very good holiday season for the Dreamcast.
I guess you're looking at ltd? Because the 3ds is selling worse than the gba did at a comparable point in the lifespan, as far as I can tell. The 3ds sold 14m hardware nd 50m software last fy. The years don't line up neatly, so exact comparisons are hard, but the gba sold 15.5 and 60 in 2002, and 17.5 and 75 in 2003. Nintendo is forecasting GBA-esque sales this year of 18 and 80 but so far it looks like they'll come up short.
Yeah, LTD. The 3DS is pretty much right where the GBA was at (both HW and SW) in terms of LTD at this point in their lives, and the 3DS should finish somewhere around the GBA at end of life.
In any case, I actually addressed your point in that same paragraph that you responded to, ha ha...
Dalthien said:
timetokill
Banned
I expect a sizable spike for Smash Bros when it comes out, and I expect Mario Kart to raise the platforms baseline sales. But I don't see it "taking off" or anything.
T
thepotatoman
Unconfirmed Member
At this point you might as well wait until next month to see how Pikmin 3 boosted Wii U sales before making a declarative statement like that.
But some sort of decent bump happening is pretty much a given. 3D mario, mario kart, and smash are all guaranteed bumps and there's no way there won't be a price cut sometime before 2014 holiday season. Just don't know how much of one.
A baseline of 100K+ a month in slow months is certainly possible. I just wonder if that's enough for nintendo to be happy with.
But they're not the same. They are down substantially, both hardware and software. I don't know which numbers you are using, but I pulled the annuals out for the earnings reports. Here are the shipment numbers for the two.
Code:
GBA HW SW
2001 1.07 2.73
2002 17.09 47.05
2003 15.65 59.12
2004 17.59 74.89
2005 15.40 84.57
3DS
2011 3.61 9.43
2012 13.53 36.00
2013 13.95 49.61Aquamarine
Member
>100K / 4-wk baseline would be great for Nintendo at this point. That's above GameCube's pre-2005 slowest months.
Assuming the absolute worst case scenario---where 3D Mario / Mario Kart / Donkey Kong / Mario & Sonic fail to sufficiently invigorate sales---I predict 200K / month during the holidays, and a ~60K / 4-wk baseline for 2014.
Basically, I expect a 200% baseline jump at the very least from the holiday lineup / Mario Kart. Anything less than that is simply not worth keeping the system alive.
Use the same earnings reports,
HW
GBA after 9 quarters - 33.81M
3DS after 10 quarters - 32.48M
SW
GBA through 9 quarters - 108.9M (with Pokemon)
3DS through 10 quarters - 106.04M (without Pokemon)
Both systems have had 2 holiday seasons in those numbers. The GBA had already had Ruby/Sapphire released in those numbers, the 3DS hasn't had X/Y released yet. And Nintendo's software totals don't include digital-only software sales for the 3DS.
The 3DS is down slightly, but the combo numbers are very close. And the Vita is ultimately going to do better than Wonderswan+NGage, especially with respect to software sales.
The 3DS will probably have a similar lifespan to the GBA (Nintendo was shipping GBAs for like 10 years), but the 3DS should have an extra year (maybe two) on the market before it's successor hits - so that will help any minor shortfall that accrues over the next year or two.
If you believe that 3DS+Vita won't reach ~85M combined in the end, then we disagree. But I'm not even sure if you believe that or not.
Aquamarine
Member
The list isn't supposed to demonstrate how effective each console is at retail...it simply represents a comprehensive listing of all titles released / re-released for both systems during their first ten months.
metalslimer
Member
100k a month outside of huge release months and holidays seems very unlikely. The best Nintendo can probably hope for is a baseline of 60-80k barring a drop to 199 which i believe is the price where the system could actually recover. If nintendo can't be happy with 100k a month they will give up next year then. The system needs to get as far away from the ps4 price as possible.
i think it's more or less a conscious effort to nail down that fanbase. they have stopped trying to get the m-rated market with the wii. the gamecube era they were all about it: eternal darkness, resident evil exclusivity, geist, and even metroid prime to an extent. the approach had varied success.
instead it seems they're trying to build a fanbase of family-friendly and colorful games. to keep that fanbase growing and happy. it's a market that sony and to a lesser extent, microsoft, are basically neglecting with their upcoming platforms. it leaves nintendo with a niche of the market, but one they can profit from for the generation.
leatherhat
Member
God damn dreamcast, what a great first year.
pieatorium
Member
they aren't really neglecting those markets on their current platforms tho, and especially not when third party is concerned. Their current systems are also cheaper.
on their current platforms, sony has been trying, but they haven't been able to reach that fanbase like microsoft or nintendo. microsoft tried for a while, but they only bone they've thrown that fanbase in the last year or so is minecraft 360.
overall the amount of effort microsoft and sony are showing to that group is about the same as nintendo shows to the 14-39 male demographic. they have enough third-party games that do the job, and are working on some exclusive games in that style themselves, but it's clearly not their focus.
pieatorium
Member
I think you are greatly overstating Nintendo's effort towards 14-39 males or understating sony and MS's stabs at all ages stuff.
RobotMafia
Banned
Which is why it it so sad that anyone compares the WiiU to the Dreamcast. The Dreamcast was a glorious system. The WiiU has three good games and just remakes ahead.
sony and ms taking stabs at all ages stuff is generally the problem though. sony especially doesn't seem to understand it much at all. a lot of their studios focus on presentation over everything, when it's mechanics that hook people in that demographic. microsoft does get it, but they haven't supported the fanbase much since late 2011. i think their problem is size. as big as microsoft is, they don't have a lot of first-party studios to spread around.
nintendo's male-oriented games are metroid, star fox, zelda, fire emblem, etc. there are some designers there who really believe in pushing presentation (especially in skyward sword), but with miyamoto and the other guys from the 80s running shop, it's definitely more about mechanics.
the dreamcast comparison isn't very accurate. a better look at the system's first nine months would take you from november 1998 to july 1999. the us had an awesome lineup right away because there was about a year between console launches.
pieatorium
Member
I would agree thats sony's efforts have been mostly misguided but they are actually putting in alot of it. At least a couple of games for that demographic per year for the last few years, many of them new IP.
Nintendos young male targeted games you might get 1 a year if you look at both platforms. You mentioned Star Fox which hasn't had a new game in the series in seven years and since this discussion is focused mostly on the wiiu, you have to go back eight years for a new home console release.
well i think that more than just making the game, understanding the demographic matters. nintendo threw the younger male demographic a bone with other m, but they clearly did not understand the presentation aspect that a lot of them cling onto. similarly, sony makes something like puppeteer, which fills the screen with a bunch of unnecessary presentation elements that takes focus away from the level design. even a decade ago, jason rubin stated his clear lack of understanding when he thought people played platformers for the story.
pieatorium
Member
you have to actually make a game in the first place to appeal to a fanbase though
true, and it's something nintendo still does, but it's sort of a lopsided year for direct comparisons. sony usually doesn't bring out so many platformers, and nintendo usually doesn't have so few games in the style of their competition (one game a year is a bit of hyperbole).
shinra-bansho
Member
I'd say Sony have tried much more and still failed to tap into those other markets (family-oriented, children-oriented titles). Looking at their PS3 publishing output their only modest success has been the LittleBigPlanet franchise. Their last real success with other markets was probably the SingStar series.
Particularly if one looks at the last few years, although we tend to focus on their big AAA franchises, much of their publishing has been with the intent, while not necessarily the success, of appealing to other demographics. Looking at last year for instance there was LBP Karting, their Smash Bros clone, Wonder Book, two Ratchet games. They've essentially tried to emulate, but fail to capture that something special to actually appeal to children/families.
With regard to Nintendo's publishing and the 15-35 male demographic, I don't think they've tried as much. I think Nintendo did try to an extent with the Wii and are with the Wii U with some of their publishing (things like The Last Story, Bayonetta 2) - but the problems are that the systems themselves still aren't positioned towards these markets and Nintendo, in terms of their internal development, don't have an understanding of this demographic in the modern global market. I think global is an important word their too, as even with their 15-35 male oriented development and publishing, it still seems largely targeted towards the Japanese market.
Running off those franchises for instance Zelda, Star Fox, Metroid; I think it's overstatement to say that these are games like the other publishers make. I just don't think fundamentally they resonate broadly with a global market which now has its controllers firmly pointed towards COD, Battlefield, Assassin's Creed, Arkham, Bioshock, Halo etc. I think if Nintendo still thinks that releasing a Zelda or Star Fox is the key to trying to reclaim mindshare amongst this demographic then they're in for a rude awakening.
----
Unrelated to current discussion, but graphs I was too lazy to make earlier. What I have for TTM US console sales.
Nintendo's rise and fall.
Microsoft's rise to dominance of the US.
Sony's slide.
At a certain point the Wii managed an annualized rate of 10M systems alone. What a waste of an opportunity.
Particularly if one looks at the last few years, although we tend to focus on their big AAA franchises, much of their publishing has been with the intent, while not necessarily the success, of appealing to other demographics. Looking at last year for instance there was LBP Karting, their Smash Bros clone, Wonder Book, two Ratchet games. They've essentially tried to emulate, but fail to capture that something special to actually appeal to children/families.
With regard to Nintendo's publishing and the 15-35 male demographic, I don't think they've tried as much. I think Nintendo did try to an extent with the Wii and are with the Wii U with some of their publishing (things like The Last Story, Bayonetta 2) - but the problems are that the systems themselves still aren't positioned towards these markets and Nintendo, in terms of their internal development, don't have an understanding of this demographic in the modern global market. I think global is an important word their too, as even with their 15-35 male oriented development and publishing, it still seems largely targeted towards the Japanese market.
Running off those franchises for instance Zelda, Star Fox, Metroid; I think it's overstatement to say that these are games like the other publishers make. I just don't think fundamentally they resonate broadly with a global market which now has its controllers firmly pointed towards COD, Battlefield, Assassin's Creed, Arkham, Bioshock, Halo etc. I think if Nintendo still thinks that releasing a Zelda or Star Fox is the key to trying to reclaim mindshare amongst this demographic then they're in for a rude awakening.
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Unrelated to current discussion, but graphs I was too lazy to make earlier. What I have for TTM US console sales.
Nintendo's rise and fall.
Microsoft's rise to dominance of the US.
Sony's slide.
At a certain point the Wii managed an annualized rate of 10M systems alone. What a waste of an opportunity.
I suppose that's one way of comparing their sales. Another is to notice that for the past two years the 3ds has been selling 15-20% less hardware and software than the gba did at a similar point. Your original contention, I believe, was that the market has returned to GBA levels. For the past two years it has actually been quite a bit lower than GBA levels.
I think that depends in large part on how long Nintendo leaves it around. I don't think it's at all assured that the 3DS will reach 80M. They won't hit 50M by the end of this year. If they have about 48M in march , then they'll be below 65M in march 2015. don't expect the vita to ever be relevant.
Interesting. I wrote a column a while back in which I said something along the lines of "we've had a decade of Sony+Microsoft consoles selling at around 10mm per year" and your graph shows that the two have fallen further than that combined rate has ever been. Even lower than the transition from Xbox to Xbox 360.
I get the feeling that some publishers are getting some decent profits out of this last year of the generation, but that lull feels so uncomfortable. The best angle I could put on it would be that there is demand building up in the market's oldest customers (the ones who bought systems in 2006-2007) and they'll come out in force next year.
For the sake of Sony and Microsoft, I hope that's true. :|