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[shinra-bansho]

Interesting. I wrote a column a while back in which I said something along the lines of "we've had a decade of Sony+Microsoft consoles selling at around 10mm per year" and your graph shows that the two have fallen further than that combined rate has ever been. Even lower than the transition from Xbox to Xbox 360.

I get the feeling that some publishers are getting some decent profits out of this last year of the generation, but that lull feels so uncomfortable. The best angle I could put on it would be that there is demand building up in the market's oldest customers (the ones who bought systems in 2006-2007) and they'll come out in force next year.

For the sake of Sony and Microsoft, I hope that's true. :|

Should probably note I don't have PS2 post-March 2010. It probably doesn't have any real impact for 2012/2013, but the steep-ish Sony TTM drop in H2 2010 - H1 2011 may in part be due to that.

Yeh, it has fallen lower than before - I would chalk that up to them pushing this generation out to being the longest we've had and the most expensive as well. I'm curious whether the $200 PS3 can do anything to at least slow that fall until October's prospective PS4 release. My expectation is a rebound as well after the new systems launch, hopefully we're right for the industry's sake.

 

[Busaiku]

Are the SMT4 numbers retail + digital?

Just retail.

 

[Dalthien]

Your original contention, I believe, was that the market has returned to GBA levels. For the past two years it has actually been quite a bit lower than GBA levels.

A bit lower, but all-in-all, the two systems are pretty close at this point. The 2nd FY isn't as far apart as it seems because Nintendo stuffed the channel at launch for the 3DS, which they didn't do with the GBA (which is why the 3DS only shipped like 700k in Q1 the 2nd FY). Add 2.5M of that first FY total to the 2nd FY, and you have a fairer comparison with the GBA's yearly totals. And the software totals are within 2% of each other at this point, with an extra non-holiday quarter added to the 3DS. And that's without counting all the E-Shop exclusive software, VC games, DLC etc that's also been sold on the 3DS. And even in Vita's shitty state, it's selling software at a better clip than Wonderswan+NGage - so I would say that the software sales are actually stronger for 3DS+Vita than the GBA+Wonderswan+NGage right now.

Buy my original contention was that the handheld market has reverted back to its historical norm. We're in the 5th generation now of handhelds. The first two (GB+GBC) sold about 120M. I don't have the actual breakdowns handy at the moment, but for simplicity let's just split it down the middle. Add in the other handhelds from those generations (Game Gear, Turbo Express, Lynx, NeoGeo Pocket, etc.) and you're probably looking at something in the order of maybe 70M units per generation, with some obvious leeway each way since I'm not sure of the GB/GBC splits at the moment (So maybe 80/60 - 70/70 - 65/75, etc).

The GBA+Wonderswan+NGage gen is maybe 85M - and then you get the 4th gen with gaming's reigning undisputed king making a heralded entrance to the market, and Nintendo striking it rich with the Touch Generations crowd - and boom, the 4th gen is well over 200M+. Does one stick out as a massive outlier from the others?

I think that depends in large part on how long Nintendo leaves it around. I don't think it's at all assured that the 3DS will reach 80M. They won't hit 50M by the end of this year. If they have about 48M in march , then they'll be below 65M in march 2015. don't expect the vita to ever be relevant.

Is the Vita relevant now? - ha ha...

We can agree to disagree. I feel pretty safe that the 3DS will reach 80M+, but let's say the Vita craps out at 10M - then the 3DS still only needs to sell 75M to reach the GBA gen. I don't really care whether the 3DS+Vita reaches 85M on the nose. If it sells 80m, I'm not going to go - "OMG, it fell short of the GBA gen!" If it sells 90M, I won't be saying - "OMG, this gen totally blew past the GBA gen!" It will all still be in the realm of reverting back from a 200M+ anomaly back to something in the vicinity of the historical standards for the handheld market. Which was my original contention.

 

[LOCK]

Nintendo expects the 3DS to be around 49m at the end of March. I think they will hit their fiscal year target. So in 2 more years the 3DS should be past 80m.

I can see them shipping 3m in Q2, cause there was an under shipment from Q1 this year due to an over shipment from Q3/4 last holiday. Q2 this year will include increased yearly averages in Europe and the America's, with the real sales juggernaut being MH4 for Japan. Q3 will be holiday shipments, which with Pokemon and Zelda and continuing MH4 sales should equal and exceed last years shipments. If sales momentum is gained any, Q4 shipments should exceed last years. Nintendo will get very close to 50mil 3DS's by April.

A decrease in sales, which could happen, over the next two fiscal years shouldn't happen drastically. 80m should be your low end estimates for total life times sales.

 

[metalslimer]

Is the market really falling to gba levels when the gba was not given a proper lifespan and probably would have hit over a hundred million with the 4.5 years the 3DS will have at least before a successor. And is it really healthy for nintendo when they are investing so much more money into handheld games and that sector is making up a large part of the profit margin

 

[airmangataosenai]

Nintendo expects the 3DS to be around 49m at the end of March. I think they will hit their fiscal year target. So in 2 more years the 3DS should be past 80m..

There is no way the 3DS is going to ship 16.5 million units in the next 9 months, It's never even done over 14 million for a full year and you're predicting that sort of an increase in an even shorter period of time? If anything it's looking to be flat year over year even with Pokemon.

 

[Aquamarine]

Nintendo expects the 3DS to be around 49m at the end of March. I think they will hit their fiscal year target. So in 2 more years the 3DS should be past 80m.

I can see them shipping 3m in Q2, cause there was an under shipment from Q1 this year due to an over shipment from Q3/4 last holiday. Q2 this year will include increased yearly averages in Europe and the America's, with the real sales juggernaut being MH4 for Japan. Q3 will be holiday shipments, which with Pokemon and Zelda and continuing MH4 sales should equal and exceed last years shipments. If sales momentum is gained any, Q4 shipments should exceed last years. Nintendo will get very close to 50mil 3DS's by April.

A decrease in sales, which could happen, over the next two fiscal years shouldn't happen drastically. 80m should be your low end estimates for total life times sales.

Still, Nintendo has never exceeded any original fiscal year target for either the 3DS or the Wii U so far. Given that historical precedent, I'm skeptical that the 3DS will manage 18 million units on top of the 31.09 million FY3/2013 LTD.

Even with an overshipment compensation, the fact they only managed 1.39 million in Q1 2014 doesn't exactly hint at a record year.

However, I do expect a minor Q3 earnings release revision post-Holiday with relative expectations somewhat met. It's easy to presume a >9 million Q3 and a >3 million Q4 with the release of massive projected successes like Pokemon X/Y and Monster Hunter 4.

 

[metalslimer]

There is no way the 3DS is going to ship 16.5 million units in the next 9 months, It's never even done over 14 million for a full year and you're predicting that sort of an increase in an even shorter period of time? If anything it's looking to be flat year over year even with Pokemon.

The biggest problem is that pokemon won't even be out until q3. If it had launched earlier and mh4 had launched june-july it would seem easily doable, but the timeframe they'll have to do most of that would require and epic channel stuff. I actually think the software forecast is less likely to be met. Still 13-14 million more should be doable.

 

[Aquamarine]

There is no way the 3DS is going to ship 16.5 million units in the next 9 months, It's never even done over 14 million for a full year and you're predicting that sort of an increase in an even shorter period of time? If anything it's looking to be flat year over year even with Pokemon.

16.5 million in nine months is definitely possible, but it presumes all three quarters will have relatively tiered sales, where:

Q3 >>> Q4 = Q2 >>> Q1

Given an ideal situation:

Q3 = 9 million
Q4 = 4 million
Q2 = 3.5 million
Q1 = 1.39 million

It's unreasonable to expect the 3DS to push >15 million consoles in two quarters alone. Only the most successful Nintendo consoles in their absolute peak years on the market could ever manage such a feat.

So naturally, it's up to Q2 to demonstrate a significant ramp up in interest if we want to see Nintendo's FY projections met.

A lower-than-optimal Q2 would indicate Nintendo's futility in reaching 18 million, and it may even hint at Q3 / Q4 not being as strong as hoped.

 

[airmangataosenai]

16.5 million in nine months is definitely possible, but it presumes all three quarters will have relatively tiered sales, where:

Q3 >>> Q4 = Q2 >>> Q1

Given an ideal situation:

Q3 = 9 million
Q4 = 4 million
Q2 = 3.5 million
Q1 = 1.39 million

It's unreasonable to expect the 3DS to push >15 million consoles in two quarters alone. Only the most successful Nintendo consoles in their absolute peak years on the market could ever manage such a feat.

So naturally, it's up to Q2 to demonstrate a significant ramp up in interest if we want to see Nintendo's FY projections met.

A lower-than-optimal Q2 would indicate Nintendo's futility in reaching 18 million, and it may even hint at Q3 / Q4 not being as strong as hoped.

We're half way through Q2 now though and have a rough idea of how the system has been performing during this period in all territories. I can't see a path to numbers that high just off the back of Monster Hunter for a few weeks in a single territory. It's currently selling roughly 150-200k a month in the US and around 250-300k a month in Japan, split the difference for PAL/Rest of the world for 200k-250k a month there to be generous. That's somewhere between 1.8 million to 2.25 million sales to consumers. Add an additional 400k for Monster Hunter and you get 2.2 to 2.65 million for the quarter. So even if they did end up shipping 3.5 million that'd leave right around 1 million new units in the wild going into the next quarter which would have an effect on their shipments for the rest of the year.

 

[goomba]

Still no WiiU, PS3 or Vita numbers?

Secret numbers suck.

 

[Aquamarine]

Still no WiiU, PS3 or Vita numbers?

Secret numbers suck.

Wii U: ~29K
PS3: ~79K
Vita: ~16K

 

[goomba]

Wii U: ~29K
PS3: ~79K
Vita: ~16K

Thank you, how come these weren't added to the OP?

 

[smurfx]

Wii U: ~29K
PS3: ~79K
Vita: ~16K

how did wii u do last month? those are some terrible numbers for the ps3. they need to drop the price by a lot.

 

[Aquamarine]

Thank you, how come these weren't added to the OP?

The numbers didn't come from official channels.

how did wii u do last month? those are some terrible numbers for the ps3. they need to drop the price by a lot.

Last month, the Wii U sold ~8,400 units per week (~42K).
This month, the Wii U hit a record low at ~7,250 units sold per week (~29K).

 

[Ninja Scooter]

Wii U: ~29K
Vita: ~16K

 

[zero shift]

The Dreamcast was selling better than the Wii U at this point of its life as well as up until this point since launch. I want everyone to let that sink in for a minute.



Now to twist the knife for some the Vita has sold and is selling notably less than the Wii U.

 

[CadetMahoney]

The Dreamcast was selling better than the Wii U at this point of its life as well as up until this point since launch. I want everyone to let that sink in for a minute.

Lets all light some candles, hold hands and form a circle.

Wii U: ~29K
PS3: ~79K
Vita: ~16K

That's just terrible all around. Trifecta of doom.

 

[Aaron Strife]

The Dreamcast was selling better than the Wii U at this point of its life as well as up until this point since launch. I want everyone to let that sink in for a minute.

Wasn't the Dreamcast really successful though, initially? I thought it wasn't until the PS2 hit that made it a bust.

Wait...

oh shit

 

[Dalthien]

Is the market really falling to gba levels when the gba was not given a proper lifespan and probably would have hit over a hundred million with the 4.5 years the 3DS will have at least before a successor. And is it really healthy for nintendo when they are investing so much more money into handheld games and that sector is making up a large part of the profit margin

That's all part of generational transitions - they aren't fixed in rigid timelines. That's similar to people who get all excited that the PS3/360 (64M in the US) have sold so well compared to PS2/XBX (60M in the US), without highlighting that the PS3/360 have had 15 years on the market before their successors hit vs. 10 years for PS2/XBX. That's a much more extreme example, but that's how the generation played out.

In any case, Nintendo shipped the GBA for 10 fiscal years (albeit small numbers the last couple years), and it kept selling very well in the US following the release of the DS. But yeah, the GBA would have put up somewhat bigger numbers in the US if it had another year to itself. But the GBA was already slowing down by mid-2004 in Japan, so I'm not sure it would have made a big difference there. So yeah, the 3DS should have an extra year (maybe even two) to itself before a successor, but the overall length of the 3DS lifespan should be similar to the GBA, and when you actually look back at the GBA sales post-DS, I really don't think they were hurt as much as you might think. The GBC sold 19M units the year the GBA released, and only 4.7M the year after. Likewise, the DS sold 17.5M units the year the 3DS released, and only 5.1M the year after. But the GBA sold 15.4M units the year the DS released, and still sold another 8.3M units the year after. Not at all a typical drop-off following the release of a successor.

Regardless, I suspect it will fall a bit further behind the GBA over the next year or two, and then start outselling the GBA in the latter years of its life - but for the sake of this argument, it really only needs like 75M or so (and I think 80M+ is pretty much a lock), and maybe even less if Sony can revive the Vita and push out more than 10M+ of that.

Is it healthy for Nintendo? Well, it's obviously not nearly as good as what they did with the DS, but that was lightning in a bottle. It wasn't going to happen again - and you can't build your business around counting on anomalies to happen repeatedly.

But the GBA/GC situation doesn't need to be all that different from the 3DS/WiiU situation (although it may turn out that way if Nintendo can't get the WiiU up to GC levels - but that's not the point). It's a situation where Nintendo can still make money (as long as they don't bleed due to the WiiU). The 3DS hardware has the potential of being more profitable than the GBA (they just weren't making much money on $99/$79 GBA prices), some of the premium games sell for a higher price, there's E-Shop + Virtual Console + DLC, etc. That all helps to offset the larger development budgets.

Anyway, long-winded answer to what was probably intended to be a simple question. But Nintendo was just fine with GBA level sales with a home console that failed.


Shifting the topic somewhat, but I'll go ahead and say that this past home console generation was artificially inflated (historically speaking) as well, much like the handheld generation. And I suspect we'll see a pretty severe drop-off back to previous generation standards with this new generation. This generation had the Wii tapping into an entirely new demographic, the 360 elevated itself mid-gen thanks to the Kinect, the generation lasted longer than I suspect the new generation will last (somebody will release a new system before 2020 - or else there just won't be anymore traditional consoles), and PC gaming was at its nadir around the start of the previous generation, whereas PC gaming is a much stronger player again this time.

This current gen will finish up somewhere not far from 300M. I could totally see the upcoming gen falling back close to the ~200M from the previous gen, or maybe even edging down closer to the 150M from the gen before that.

 

[Chris1964]

Nintendo expects the 3DS to be around 49m at the end of March. I think they will hit their fiscal year target.

Nintendo and miracles don't go together lately.

 

[LaNaranja]

Nintendo and miracles don't go together lately.

Believe! Believe in the power of Pokemon!

 

[shinra-bansho]

The thing is though, while Nintendo shipped 81.5M GBAs, 64.5M were sold outside of Japan.

		Units sold (Ms)
[B]GB	[/B]	
Japan		32.47
The Americas	44.06
[U]Other		42.16[/U]
Total		118.69
		
[B]GBA	[/B]	
Japan		16.96
The Americas	41.64
[U]Other		22.91[/U]
Total		81.51
		
[B]3DS		[/B]
Japan		12.18
The Americas	10.62
[U]Other		9.69[/U]
Total		32.48

Even if one takes the NDS as an anomaly, historically Nintendo's handheld sales have not been as concentrated in just the Japanese market. And despite handhelds being the dominant dedicated gaming system now in that market, the market is still of a limited size and will, at a certain point presumably be saturated?

If one looks at the data by region and compares the two:

		(tens of thousands)			
GBA		FY01	FY02	FY03	
Japan		106 	492 	408 	1,006 
The Americas	- 	757 	780 	1,537 
Other		1 	460 	377 	838 
Total		107 	1,709 	1,565 	
					
3DS		FY11	FY12	FY13	
Japan		106 	479 	569 	1,154 
The Americas	132 	467 	427 	1,026 
Other		123 	406 	400 	929 
Total		361 	1,353 	1,395

While it's tracking 1.5M ahead in Japan; despite an extra reporting period it's tracking 5M less in the US. It's tracking a million ahead in Other as well, but it has an extra fiscal year period.

And while shipments in Japan this year will presumably exceed the 3.15M the GBA shipped, I don't see the net gain being enough to counteract the deficit from the 9.45M the GBA shipped in The Americas in FY03/2004.

 

[Dalthien]

Even if one takes the NDS as an anomaly, historically Nintendo's handheld sales have not been as concentrated in just the Japanese market.

Oddly enough, the DS was even more lopsided towards Japan in terms of regional splits early on. For the first 3 FYs for the DS, Japan = 16.02M, Americas = 11.74M. For the 3DS, Japan = 11.54M, Americas = 10.26M (or 12.18M vs 10.62M if we add in the extra quarter). The DS was this generation on steroids in terms of Japanese dominance for the first 3 years. Of course, the Americas more than made up for that over the ensuing years.

If anything, this just shows that there is a lot of untapped potential still sitting there for the 3DS in the Americas in the back half of the generation.

And while shipments in Japan this year will presumably exceed the 3.15M the GBA shipped, I don't see the net gain being enough to counteract the deficit from the 9.45M the GBA shipped in The Americas in FY03/2004.

Neither do I. That's why I said that I expect the 3DS to fall a little further behind the GBA over the next year or two, and then start making up the difference once the GBA gets past FY05.

 

[mentalfloss]

That Pachter tweet is so stupid.

 

[Santiako]

Damn, America loved the gba.

 

[shinra-bansho]

Neither do I. That's why I said that I expect the 3DS to fall a little further behind the GBA over the next year or two, and then start making up the difference once the GBA gets past FY05.

You may have already said and I missed it, but why exactly are you expecting that?

Price reduction? I can't see the 3DS ever reaching the GBA's price really.

And even in FY06 after the NDS had released the GBA still shipped more in the US than the 3DS ever has so far, and FY07 it still did a respectable 3M units in the US despite being very aged and the NDS having taken off. FY08 is essentially when GBA sales completely petered out at only half a million shipped.

Are you expecting the 3DS to continue to sell strongly, and better than it has been into FY03/2017? Or to make up the cumulative shortfall in FY03/2018? Or that Nintendo will keep the 3DS going into 2019? And at what point during this period would a successor be announced - that could cut into such sales?

And more generally: Can the 3DS really sell like the GBA did, if it doesn't sell anywhere near what the GBA did in the US market?

 

[BishopLamont]

While it's tracking 1.5M ahead in Japan; despite an extra reporting period it's tracking 5M less in the US. It's tracking a million ahead in Other as well, but it has an extra fiscal year period.

And while shipments in Japan this year will presumably exceed the 3.15M the GBA shipped, I don't see the net gain being enough to counteract the deficit from the 9.45M the GBA shipped in The Americas in FY03/2004.

Sales in Europe and Japan can easily make up for any deficit from America and the 3DS will have a longer life span. 80M isn't a very hard target for Nintendo handhelds.

 

[Dalthien]

I rearranged your sentence order a bit to make it easier to respond to - I hope you don't mind.

You may have already said and I missed it, but why exactly are you expecting that?

And even in FY06 after the NDS had released the GBA still shipped more in the US than the 3DS ever has so far, and FY07 it still did a respectable 3M units in the US despite being very aged and the NDS having taken off. FY08 is essentially when GBA sales completely petered out at only half a million shipped.

Are you expecting the 3DS to continue to sell strongly, and better than it has been into FY03/2017? Or to make up the cumulative shortfall in FY03/2018? Or that Nintendo will keep the 3DS going into 2019? And at what point during this period would a successor be announced - that could cut into such sales?

Because the GBA, while still strong in the US, petered out pretty quickly elsewhere. It had a strong FY03/2004 and FY03/2005 worldwide - and I expect the 3DS to lose a little ground there, but nothing too big. And whilst the GBA held up very well in the US following that, it petered out pretty quickly elsewhere. The GBA only sold 8M in FY03/2006, and 4M in FY03/2007. Those are the 5th and 6th XMas years for the platform, and I expect the 3DS to beat both of those numbers pretty easily.

And to be honest, I think the 3DS still has some upside in the US from what it has been selling thus far. There's still Pokemon, price drops, probably still one more model revision. And for whatever reason, the US really lagged behind Japan with the DS for the first 3 fiscal years - even much more so than it has for the 3DS. I could be wrong, but I'm expecting a very nice holiday season for the 3DS this year, with some of that momentum carrying on into the future.

Price reduction? I can't see the 3DS ever reaching the GBA's price really.

The 3DS may eventually be able to get down to $99, but that's a stretch. $129 is probably more realistic, but that's nothing more than a guess. But even $129 would mean a lot of $99 Black Friday and Christmas sales, which should help give some more strong holiday seasons a few years down the road.

And more generally: Can the 3DS really sell like the GBA did, if it doesn't sell anywhere near what the GBA did in the US market?

Well yeah. I mean, theoretically, if it sells 10M more in Japan, and 5M more in Others, then it can sell 15M less in the Americas. I'm not exactly sure what you're asking.

 

[shinra-bansho]

I rearranged your sentence order a bit to make it easier to respond to - I hope you don't mind.

Because the GBA, while still strong in the US, petered out pretty quickly elsewhere. It had a strong FY03/2004 and FY03/2005 worldwide - and I expect the 3DS to lose a little ground there, but nothing too big. And whilst the GBA held up very well in the US following that, it petered out pretty quickly elsewhere. The GBA only sold 8M in FY03/2006, and 4M in FY03/2007. Those are the 5th and 6th XMas years for the platform, and I expect the 3DS to beat both of those numbers pretty easily.

And to be honest, I think the 3DS still has some upside in the US from what it has been selling thus far. There's still Pokemon, price drops, probably still one more model revision. And for whatever reason, the US really lagged behind Japan with the DS for the first 3 fiscal years - even much more so than it has for the 3DS. I could be wrong, but I'm expecting a very nice holiday season for the 3DS this year, with some of that momentum carrying on into the future.

The 3DS may eventually be able to get down to $99, but that's a stretch. $129 is probably more realistic, but that's nothing more than a guess. But even $129 would mean a lot of $99 Black Friday and Christmas sales, which should help give some more strong holiday seasons a few years down the road.

Well yeah. I mean, theoretically, if it sells 10M more in Japan, and 5M more in Others, then it can sell 15M less in the Americas. I'm not exactly sure what you're asking.

Is it tracking to sell 5M more in Others and only 15M less in the Americas? (EDIT: I guess under an extended timeframe, I keep forgetting how quickly the GBA's life was cut by a successor release.) Essentially I was asking whether you thought expansion of the handheld market in Japan was sufficient to counteract contraction everywhere else. I realise you don't think there is an actual contraction everywhere else, but simply under the hypothetical.

I suppose that's essentially where this difference in view comes from - I personally think that over the next few years things like Pokemon, price drops and/or a hardware revision are going to be necessary just to keep the hardware from declining in the Americas and Others rather than setting it off to grow. For instance, this fiscal year I think Pokemon releasing will still put them 4-5M units or so behind the equivalent year for the GBA in the US.

I'd say the NDS lagged in the US because the PSP came along, took some of the traditional dedicated gaming base and the GBA continued to sell to the more casual market of children and young people. The NDS took off when it became cheap enough to supplant the NDS and brought in a huge amount of new gamers.

 

[CouldBeWorse]

It's almost comical how hard those of you engaged in the GBA vs 3DS debate are trying to ignore the massive shifts that have taken place in the consumer electronics market over the past 10 years. The concept of a "historical" handheld market size is a fallacy.

Namely, the rise of mobile device gaming (both phone and MP3 player), and tablet gaming on multifunction devices has irreversibly shifted the market and consumer expectations for what they will pay for content. I'm sure that everyone is well aware of this, so why continue to argue as if Nintendo operates in a vacuum.

I know it makes the analysis much more complicated, but the gaming market is (and forever will be) in a much more complicated position than it was historically.

 

[StevieP]

It's almost comical how hard those of you engaged in the GBA vs 3DS debate are trying to ignore the massive shifts that have taken place in the consumer electronics market over the past 10 years. The concept of a "historical" handheld market size is a fallacy.

Namely, the rise of mobile device gaming (both phone and MP3 player), and tablet gaming on multifunction devices has irreversibly shifted the market and consumer expectations for what they will pay for content. I'm sure that everyone is well aware of this, so why continue to argue as if Nintendo operates in a vacuum.

I know it makes the analysis much more complicated, but the gaming market is (and forever will be) in a much more complicated position than it was historically.

As has already been discussed in this thread, the same "they're eating my lunch!" Is not just going to be affecting mobile value. The same market forces at work will likely work against the entire market and not just one facet of it. I don't think anything is immune to people having 9458339548 ways to consume their games.

 

[zero shift]

It's almost comical how hard those of you engaged in the GBA vs 3DS debate are trying to ignore the massive shifts that have taken place in the consumer electronics market over the past 10 years. The concept of a "historical" handheld market size is a fallacy.

Namely, the rise of mobile device gaming (both phone and MP3 player), and tablet gaming on multifunction devices has irreversibly shifted the market and consumer expectations for what they will pay for content. I'm sure that everyone is well aware of this, so why continue to argue as if Nintendo operates in a vacuum.

I know it makes the analysis much more complicated, but the gaming market is (and forever will be) in a much more complicated position than it was historically.

Pretty much this. I'm surprised that the 3DS is selling as well as it is.

As has already been discussed in this thread, the same "they're eating my lunch!" Is not just going to be affecting mobile value. The same market forces at work will likely work against the entire market and not just one facet of it. I don't think anything is immune to people having 9458339548 ways to consume their games.

You don't see why mobile phones aren't more likely to cut into the 3DS and Vitas market more so than the PS3 and 360s?

 

[StevieP]

Pretty much this. I'm surprised that the 3DS is selling as well as it is.



You don't see why mobile phones aren't more likely to cut into the 3DS and Vitas market more so than the PS3 and 360s?

Yes. But I don't believe for a second that those cuts end in the mobile sector.

 

[CouldBeWorse]

As has already been discussed in this thread, the same "they're eating my lunch!" Is not just going to be affecting mobile value. The same market forces at work will likely work against the entire market and not just one facet of it. I don't think anything is immune to people having 9458339548 ways to consume their games.

It absolutely works against the entire market and is already impacting current and next gen console and handheld sales. You'd have to be completely oblivious to see that there is an even greater impact on the handheld market where phones/tablets are much more of a direct replacement for traditional handhelds.

However, that wasn't the specific discussion that I was addressing.

Yes. But I don't believe for a second that those cuts end in the mobile sector.

I don't understand how you made the leap to the assumption that I was ONLY talking about the "mobile sector." I don't even imply that. It's like you have an argument ready to go no matter if it fits the situation or not.

 

[metalslimer]

As has already been discussed in this thread, the same "they're eating my lunch!" Is not just going to be affecting mobile value. The same market forces at work will likely work against the entire market and not just one facet of it. I don't think anything is immune to people having 9458339548 ways to consume their games.

It will affect a significantly higher portion of the handheld market though.

The thing that interests me is when tablets and smartphones reach a peak.

 

[Mr Swine]

So guys, think Nintendo will introduce a 3DSi next year like they did with the DSi after the DS was out for 2 years or so? With better specs and more memory so that games can use and no DS BC to cut off the pirate market? Or was the DSi a one time thing for Nintendo?

 

[CouldBeWorse]

So guys, think Nintendo will introduce a 3DSi next year like they did with the DSi after the DS was out for 2 years or so? With better specs and more memory so that games can use and no DS BC to cut off the pirate market? Or was the DSi a one time thing for Nintendo?

They always iterate on handhelds to spur sales, do I think they'll have something.

 

[Like the hat?]

Only 1.5 million behind a console that went to sell over 100 million doesn't seem too bad to me.

 

[Refreshment.01]

i think it's more or less a conscious effort to nail down that fanbase. they have stopped trying to get the m-rated market with the wii. the gamecube era they were all about it: eternal darkness, resident evil exclusivity, geist, and even metroid prime to an extent. the approach had varied success.

instead it seems they're trying to build a fanbase of family-friendly and colorful games. to keep that fanbase growing and happy. it's a market that sony and to a lesser extent, microsoft, are basically neglecting with their upcoming platforms. it leaves nintendo with a niche of the market, but one they can profit from for the generation.

Some things that i think your argument fails to cover:

1- eternal darkness, resident evil, geist and prime where games landing on a purple lunch box of a system. The perception of the platform has long been formed since before its release and in a market completly dominated by one console, to an extend not even seen before. So the lack of succes for that "software diversity" startegy with the GC falls again into Nintendo and it's paradoxical decisions.

2-The above strategy (leaving aside the f*ck ups) makes a ton more sense than what we have with the Wii U now. In the sense that the 2nd parties and colaborations were adressing and covering the gaps of Nintendo internal offereings.

3 "to build a fanbase of family-friendly and colorful games" at a 350 U.S. price point of entry. I'll just leave it at "results speaking for themselves" here. This a system paradox, there's not one thing that makes sense in the Wii U strategy. Been saying this since a year before launch.

on their current platforms, sony has been trying, but they haven't been able to reach that fanbase like microsoft or nintendo. microsoft tried for a while, but they only bone they've thrown that fanbase in the last year or so is minecraft 360.

overall the amount of effort microsoft and sony are showing to that group is about the same as nintendo shows to the 14-39 male demographic. they have enough third-party games that do the job, and are working on some exclusive games in that style themselves, but it's clearly not their focus.

MS did catch a huge brake in the past cycle with the Kinect.

In the end the "group" targeting will adress by itself more or less in the console with the biggest user base and library, like we saw in the past with the PSX and PS2, when the market wasn't disrupted by one device. Looks like a similar disruption wont come from any of the 3 usual suspects this round. Take in to account im talking about the home console space since we all know by now an important part of that audience is getting their gaming quota with other devices.

 

[CouldBeWorse]

It will affect a significantly higher portion of the handheld market though.

The thing that interests me is when tablets and smartphones reach a peak.

They won't reach a peak until everyone has one of each.

 

[StevieP]

It absolutely works against the entire market and is already impacting current and next gen console and handheld sales. You'd have to be completely oblivious to see that there is an even greater impact on the handheld market where phones/tablets are much more of a direct replacement for traditional handhelds.

I don't understand how you made the leap to the assumption that I was ONLY talking about the "mobile sector." I don't even imply that. It's like you have an argument ready to go no matter if it fits the situation or not.

Of course there is a greater impact to handhelds - I just simply assumed (perhaps incorrectly) that the narrative of the post was that the mobile gaming sector was the only subsection of the market being affected by the gazillions of ways games can be consumed now.

It will affect a significantly higher portion of the handheld market though.

The thing that interests me is when tablets and smartphones reach a peak.

It's obvious that handhelds are more affected, but I don't think we'll see a "significant" differential (edit: and by that I mean the continued downward trend of the traditional gaming market in general will continue for the next little while unless 1 of the big 3 figures out a way to engage the mainstream as none of them currently are with their home consoles, or a disruptor enters the market to that same effect). With that said, I don't think they'll ever peak out. They will taper off over the years, but for the foreseeable future they're going to sell very well and people will consume games on them. Where I am here in Toronto area, there is tons of work being done in mobile-focused studios. To the point where talent is being poached and focused into the mobile sector. I don't think this is an uncommon story in many cities.

 

[Refreshment.01]

We can agree to disagree. I feel pretty safe that the 3DS will reach 80M+, but let's say the Vita craps out at 10M - then the 3DS still only needs to sell 75M to reach the GBA gen. I don't really care whether the 3DS+Vita reaches 85M on the nose. If it sells 80m, I'm not going to go - "OMG, it fell short of the GBA gen!" If it sells 90M, I won't be saying - "OMG, this gen totally blew past the GBA gen!" It will all still be in the realm of reverting back from a 200M+ anomaly back to something in the vicinity of the historical standards for the handheld market. Which was my original contention.

Do you think is worth to consider, in the disscussion you guys are doing, that the PSP/DS generation was when piracy got "main stream" in the portable market? And this was at a time that part of the audience wasn't been diverted to other devices.

As of know i don't know what's the state of piracy with the 3DS and Vita.

 

[metalslimer]

Also i think it's wrong to call the 220 million an anomaly. That market had always been there and was finally tapped into. Just because a good number are fine with tablets now doesn't mean they don't exist because if smartphones and tablets didn't come we could be seeing the same number this gen

 

[michaelius]

instead it seems they're trying to build a fanbase of family-friendly and colorful games. to keep that fanbase growing and happy. it's a market that sony and to a lesser extent, microsoft, are basically neglecting with their upcoming platforms. it leaves nintendo with a niche of the market, but one they can profit from for the generation.

Where does the idea that Sony or Microsoft are neglecting kids market come from ?

There's enough casual stuff on those platforms to keep families occupied when father isn't playing his Halo/TloU on it

Modern parents are gamers themselves - this is another change Nintendo didn't notice - so the platform that has kiddie only games is much less attractive to them as it is another unnecessary expense when your xbox can play Skylanders or Disney Infinity

 

[StevieP]

Where does the idea that Sony or Microsoft are neglecting kids market come from

The majority of their software and marketing focuses are to the 16-35 male.
Microsoft has recently expanded their focus a bit, but Sony's marketing for Vita (and likely PS4) will revolve entirely around the young male demo. Knack and family-oriented multiplats which more often than not sell much less than they do on Nintendo consoles likely won't remedy this.

Opiate sort of summarized this as "MS/Sony and most of the major third parties are almost entirely focused on the 16-35 male, whereas Nintendo generally focuses on everyone else" lol.

 

[michaelius]

Yeah because that's the market that buys $400-500 consoles or $250 handhelds. They are adresing more casual markets with their older cheap hardware.

And they don't have to produce those games themselves - they have 3rd parties for that.

 

[Carpe Libertatem]

Where does the idea that Sony or Microsoft are neglecting kids market come from ?

There's enough casual stuff on those platforms to keep families occupied when father isn't playing his Halo/TloU on it

Modern parents are gamers themselves - this is another change Nintendo didn't notice - so the platform that has kiddie only games is much less attractive to them as it is another unnecessary expense when your xbox can play Skylanders or Disney Infinity

I'm pretty sure Nintendo noticed that. That's why many of their local multiplayer games sold extremely well on the Wii - parents can play them with their kids. That's often a bigger deal to parents than if the system can play "mature" games or whatever you seem to think.

Also, the idea comes from the fact that those types of games generally sell poorly on Sony hardware and to a lesser extent Microsoft hardware. Last year's Just Dance, for example, sold more on the Wii U than the PS3. Not attach rate (well, that too) - but more units.

 

[LOCK]

There is no way the 3DS is going to ship 16.5 million units in the next 9 months, It's never even done over 14 million for a full year and you're predicting that sort of an increase in an even shorter period of time? If anything it's looking to be flat year over year even with Pokemon.

Still, Nintendo has never exceeded any original fiscal year target for either the 3DS or the Wii U so far. Given that historical precedent, I'm skeptical that the 3DS will manage 18 million units on top of the 31.09 million FY3/2013 LTD.

Even with an overshipment compensation, the fact they only managed 1.39 million in Q1 2014 doesn't exactly hint at a record year.

However, I do expect a minor Q3 earnings release revision post-Holiday with relative expectations somewhat met. It's easy to presume a >9 million Q3 and a >3 million Q4 with the release of massive projected successes like Pokemon X/Y and Monster Hunter 4.

Call me an optimist, but 18m this fiscal year seems attainable. Now the Wii U on the other hand is almost impossible.

I expect the 3DS to be up YoY for both Europe and the Americas on a monthly basis for the rest of the year. Pokemon will boost October and November substantially. There is no reason to suspect that sales will be as low as last holiday.

The USA sold ~2m units for that quarter. Europe should do the same, so should Japan. That is a 6m unit sales baseline, not including 'others' and need to over ship what you sell. I expect Pokemon and Zelda and Mario Party can produce a sales increase over last years Paper Mario.

 

[jvm]

So guys, think Nintendo will introduce a 3DSi next year like they did with the DSi after the DS was out for 2 years or so? With better specs and more memory so that games can use and no DS BC to cut off the pirate market? Or was the DSi a one time thing for Nintendo?

I've advocated that Nintendo annually iterate their hardware to keep the line-up fresh and make some money while enlarging their market by pushing the low-end model down to casuals at a proper price. So far, hasn't happened. :|