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[CosmicQueso]

Those software total sales are catastrophic... There may be a game industry crash inbound. New consoles will sell well for first three months and doubt they'll do Wii u numbers but there is a good chance of them underperforming last gen now IMO.

This is not a crash.

We have very few disc based games being released as everyone gears up for next-gen or as developers have moved to alternative platforms. Total industry spend is higher than it was last year, driven by digital, mobile/tablet, free to play. In fact, consumer spend for gaming has never been higher. It's the antithesis of a crash, actually.

Even in the disc space over the past 12 months, the average sales a new game gets are actually up fairly substantially when compared to the prior year. The number of new games being released, however, is dramatically lower.

And for this month in particular, last year we had Diablo 3, Max Payne 3 and Ghost Recon all hit the month. This time we had Metro and Riptide.

Take Gamasutra's advice and stop thinking this stuff accurately reflects the industry. Hardware numbers remain interesting, but don't think too much about the software sales, even for the next 5 or 6 months. They just don't matter.

Fuse...

We need numbers! ;-;

Schadenfreude isn't attractive.

 

[Calamari41]

Game was released on May 28th, the period runs through June 1st.

This can't be right, because June 1st was a Saturday. That means May 26-June 1 is part of June.

 

[jschreier]

I sure hope someone has brought up that NPD numbers are growing more irrelevant by the month since they don't count digital, and that fearmongering about a video game crash based on nothing but physical sales is a bit silly.

 

[idlewild_]

This can't be right, because June 1st was a Saturday. That means May 26-June 1 is part of June.

NPD Group's U.S. Games Industry Sales (New Physical Sales Channel*) - May 2013
4-week month; Reporting Period 5/5/13 through 6/1/13

.

 

[maabus1999]

The industry is fine. The console sector, right now, is not.

Even if the console sector was to struggle mightily, games are still being bought and played in strong numbers on mobile and PC.

Could the console sector crash? Unlikely but possible. Could the industry as a whole crash? Almost certainly not.

Mobile gaming will be fine but honestly the growth is in new companies not old that support large titles. When I say industry crash it is negative sales year over year at this rate causing many studios to close.

 

[lunchwithyuzo]

This is our new goalpost now?

I'm down for it.

Goalpost? I thought it was common sentiment, it's $100 too much. $250 Deluxe needs to happen.

 

[lunchwithyuzo]

I sure hope someone has brought up that NPD numbers are growing more irrelevant by the month since they don't count digital, and that fearmongering about a video game crash based on nothing but physical sales is a bit silly.

How much hardware is sold digitally?

 

[darkside31337]

I sure hope someone has brought up that NPD numbers are growing more irrelevant by the month since they don't count digital, and that fearmongering about a video game crash based on nothing but physical sales is a bit silly.

Sure but nobody sells digital systems.

The Wii U and Vita numbers are beyond terrible.

 

[IncandescentPrecept]

I sure hope someone has brought up that NPD numbers are growing more irrelevant by the month since they don't count digital, and that fearmongering about a video game crash based on nothing but physical sales is a bit silly.

In addition to that, you can't look at the US only and say that the gaming market is crashing when there are so many other countries out there.

 

[Calamari41]

.

Huh. You're right. Does anybody know why they don't go by fiscal months?

 

[ToxicAdam]

Essentially, yes. Consumers buy fewer games and consoles and video games fall out of favor. Happened due to oversaturation of software in 1983.
.

Commodore 64 sold over a billion dollars of computers that year. Arcades were in their golden age and opening all across America.

This, despite the fact that the U.S. had one of the worst recessions since the great depression (even rivaling that of the recent one in 2008).


"Video Game Crash" is bullshit. It was an Atari crash coupled with a severe recession.

 

[BishopLamont]

Price is a big lever in the US, to deny so is folly.

Sales in the US for the GameCube averaged ~19.5K/week in the 4 months of 2002 (Jan-April) prior to a price drop; while they increased to an average of 35.5K/week in the 4 months after the May 2002 price drop (June-Sept).

Typically the US summer sees sales fall, iirc.

The only significant game release I can find for the May-Aug period is SSBM; but I do not think that that game is what caused a significant baseline increase in sales over the summer period. Mario Sunshine released at the end of August, but there was no major uptick in September.

Gamecube had competition, as much as people think the 360/PS3 is Wii U's competition, its not. It is right now but once those systems are phased out the competition will be PS4/Xbone, and right now we don't know how strong that competition is yet. People see the Wii U as late to the game, but its actually early, start of next year is the real battle. You might think this is me moving the goal post or whatever, but If the system is still flopping while Xbone/PS4 is outselling it by a big margin next year, I'll be the first to call the Wii U the loser of this generation.

The Gamecube's lineup isn't as strong as the Wii U's at the end of this year either, and its cheaper than the Wii U, its not a good comparison at all. Calling for a price drop now is a bit early, I think waiting til how the software hits would be a wiser move, its all up to Nintendo in the end.

 

[CosmicQueso]

I sure hope someone has brought up that NPD numbers are growing more irrelevant by the month since they don't count digital, and that fearmongering about a video game crash based on nothing but physical sales is a bit silly.

Gamasutra sure did.

 

[EmCeeGramr]

Commodore 64 sold over a billion dollars of computers that year. Arcades were in their golden age and opening all across America.

This, despite the fact that the U.S. had one of the worst recessions since the great depression (even rivaling that of the recent one in 2008).


"Video Game Crash" is bullshit. It was an Atari crash coupled with a severe recession.

Yeah, I'm pretty sure the crash wasn't known as such in other parts of the world. There was some Japanese interview where it was specifically called the "Atari Debacle."

 

[jschreier]

Sure but nobody sells digital systems.

The Wii U and Vita numbers are beyond terrible.

1) It's May.
2) Next-gen consoles were just announced.
3) The Wii U and Vita's problems aren't exactly indicative of the industry as a whole.

 

[prag16]

I sure hope someone has brought up that NPD numbers are growing more irrelevant by the month since they don't count digital, and that fearmongering about a video game crash based on nothing but physical sales is a bit silly.

Haven't seen anyone mention that, no.

Several spoke against an impending crash, but mostly due to the possibly unreasonable expectation that the PS4 will set the world on fire.

 

[Petrae]

DELETED

 

[NBtoaster]

.

oh.

Everyone keep begging for FUSE then

 

[reddwarf42]

I sure hope someone has brought up that NPD numbers are growing more irrelevant by the month since they don't count digital, and that fearmongering about a video game crash based on nothing but physical sales is a bit silly.

This. So much this.

The Gamasutra article also puts the NPD in perspective.

 

[jschreier]

Will keep that in mind, as I did with Gamasutra's bullshit argument about NPD suddenly being irrelevant.

Tell you what: If we want digital sales to be counted and to get a more accurate picture of this sector, how about putting some pressure on publishers to be more forthcoming with their digital sales data?

I'd love for publishers to be more forthcoming about a lot of things.

 

[Petrae]

Commodore 64 sold over a billion dollars of computers that year. Arcades were in their golden age and opening all across America.

This, despite the fact that the U.S. had one of the worst recessions since the great depression (even rivaling that of the recent one in 2008).


"Video Game Crash" is bullshit. It was an Atari crash coupled with a severe recession.

I can live with that. I would agree-- as someone who lived through it, old man that I am-- that it was very much Atari collapsing in on itself and damning the console sector, which also spread somewhat to arcades at the time. I do appreciate the point made about Commodore, too. "Video games", even then, had multiple sectors that made it whole.

 

[A Human Becoming]

I sure hope someone has brought up that NPD numbers are growing more irrelevant by the month since they don't count digital, and that fearmongering about a video game crash based on nothing but physical sales is a bit silly.

Hardware numbers matter. It's important to keep expanding the hardware base. I just ignore software because of digital.

1) It's May.
2) Next-gen consoles were just announced.
3) The Wii U and Vita's problems aren't exactly indicative of the industry as a whole.

All these are true, but the problems shouldn't be dismissed either.

 

[CrimsonCrescendo]

This is not a crash.

We have very few disc based games being released as everyone gears up for next-gen or as developers have moved to alternative platforms. Total industry spend is higher than it was last year, driven by digital, mobile/tablet, free to play. In fact, consumer spend for gaming has never been higher. It's the antithesis of a crash, actually.

Even in the disc space over the past 12 months, the average sales a new game gets are actually up fairly substantially when compared to the prior year. The number of new games being released, however, is dramatically lower.

And for this month in particular, last year we had Diablo 3, Max Payne 3 and Ghost Recon all hit the month. This time we had Metro and Riptide.

Take Gamasutra's advice and stop thinking this stuff accurately reflects the industry. Hardware numbers remain interesting, but don't think too much about the software sales, even for the next 5 or 6 months. They just don't matter.



Schadenfreude isn't attractive.

But used games, rentals, and piracy! Triple A market can't survive! The numbers don't add up!

Spoiler

They raked in something like $65 billion last year and are looking to about the same or more this year and for the forseeable future. The issues with the industry are bloated budgets, terrible management, and unrealistic expectations. So you're right, people need to stop screaming "doom" and "the market is crashing". It's not.

 

[Tobor]

EDIT: derp! NM!

 

[Sho_Nuff82]

Great job with those E3 price drops console manufacturers.

Is there a realistic possibility that games like Madden 25, GTA 5, and SR 4 will be affected by the current apathy towards all things current gen?

 

[bomma_man]

In addition to that, you can't look at the US only and say that the gaming market is crashing when there are so many other countries out there.

Well the uk is in a dire state, as is the rest of Europe, and in Japan consoles are dead and 3DS + Vita is nowhere near what DS + PSP was.

 

[sangreal]

Nobody sells iPods and iPads? How about Rokus? How about the Ouya, coming to retail this summer?

Those are all physical hardware (his point)

 

[lunchwithyuzo]

Nobody sells iPods and iPads? How about Rokus? How about the Ouya, coming to retail this summer?

At retail. As in not digital.

 

[Tobor]

Those are all physical hardware (his point)

Ahh, I missed that. Nevermind!

 

[Petrae]

Hardware numbers matter. It's important to keep expanding the hardware base. I just ignore software because of digital.

Same. When I write up my monthly analysis pieces, I barely touch software because it's not a complete picture. It's frustrating to me to only cover one half of the data, but the hardware half is the only legitimately tracked and reliable data that we have to go on.

There are no surprises in hardware, other than trying to extract data as best we can for those of us who don't have access to the snapshot. There's nothing significant that isn't tracked on the hardware side when it comes to NPD, and that is what continues to make the tracking data relevant.

 

[ArtHands]

Soul Sacrifice was April, wasn't it? Also, have the indies been released already?

yah, the indies has been there for quite a while like for numerous months.

 

[DiscoJer]

Commodore 64 sold over a billion dollars of computers that year. Arcades were in their golden age and opening all across America.

This, despite the fact that the U.S. had one of the worst recessions since the great depression (even rivaling that of the recent one in 2008).


"Video Game Crash" is bullshit. It was an Atari crash coupled with a severe recession.

It wasn't just Atari though, Coleco and Intellivision had trouble too.

It was consoles that crashed.

Home computers picked up the slack, as you point out, but video games went from something that was sold in all sorts of places (department stores, toy stores, drug stores, even grocery stores) to computer software stores and radio shack. And a lot of software was available from magazines.

 

[IncandescentPrecept]

Was watching the HipHoGamer interview with the PS Video Director and he said that Gamescom will be a Vita show. We will have to wait and see.

 

[CrimsonCrescendo]

Hardware numbers matter. It's important to keep expanding the hardware base. I just ignore software because of digital.

Yes, but all products have a life span. Xbox and PS3 have been on the market for over 7 years for a combined total of about ~150 million sales. It's ~250 million sales if you count the dying Wii. The market is only so big and will only start significant expansion again, if it does at all, when the new products hit the market.

If after two years the PS4, Xbone, and Wii U are selling like hardware currently is, then there will be cause for concern.

 

[Basileus777]

Generational fatigue doesn't explain the 3DS' awful sales. This is a console that should be in its prime. And unlike the Vita and WiiU, it's been getting a steady diet of quality software this year.

 

[DaBoss]

Generational fatigue doesn't explain the 3DS' awful sales. This is a console that should be in its prime.

Handhelds are in a decline compared to the previous generation due to smartphones.

 

[Petrae]

Great job with those E3 price drops console manufacturers.

Is there a realistic possibility that games like Madden 25, GTA 5, and SR 4 will be affected by the current apathy towards all things current gen?

It's possible, though I think sales do recover for those titles in Q3/Q4. May was so damned difficult because, well, there wasn't anything really significant released on the software side. Once more prominent games come, starting in August, I think the tide turns a bit. GTA V especially, because it's only available on last-gen hardware, will be notable.

 

[Hero]

A price drop is needed for the Wii U and the Vita but it really won't mean too much if it doesn't happen alongside a steady stream of games. A 299 Wii U 32GB w/ Nintendo Land SKU this holiday season could probably do well. As it is currently a price drop might help for a month and then go back down since there are very few games coming out for it.

 

[Nirolak]

Generational fatigue doesn't explain the 3DS' awful sales. This is a console that should be in its prime. And unlike the Vita and WiiU, it's been getting a steady diet of quality software this year.

I feel the 3DS's decline is driven by convergence devices.

The casual audience really doesn't need a 3DS when they have a smartphone or a tablet.

That primarily leaves the children's market, Nintendo enthusiasts, and gamers who play niche Japanese titles.

While the last two categories are safe, it is possible to serve the children's market on a smartphone/tablet too, so there is some impact until they get a very strong line-up of games for the 6-11 crowd and then have a holiday where parents actually buy the system for their kids.

 

[Napalm_Frank]

Schadenfreude isn't attractive.

But I'm so curious! ;-;

 

[Exterminieren]

Generational fatigue doesn't explain the 3DS' awful sales. This is a console that should be in its prime. And unlike the Vita and WiiU, it's been getting a steady diet of quality software this year.

Being the best selling console in the region when the only title released is a port of a Wii game doesn't seem that abysmal.

Animal Crossing's just come out, and Pokémon and Zelda are out later in the year. That's prime material, not the drizzle of B-tier software 3DS has had up to now.

DS days are gone, but these are sustainable, profitable sales that are only going to get better from here on out. I wouldn't necessarily be surprised if 3DS was the best-selling console between now and when GTA comes out.

 

[RM8]

Generational fatigue doesn't explain the 3DS' awful sales. This is a console that should be in its prime. And unlike the Vita and WiiU, it's been getting a steady diet of quality software this year.

The market has changed, America is no longer in love with handhelds. Which makes the DKCR and Luigi numbers pretty good, really.

 

[creamsugar]

PSV game this year (LTD)
SC:TIT ~ 28.8K
NGS2P ~ 8.3K
DOA5P ~ 7.5K
MLB13 ~ 38.8K
SS ~ 45.3K

 

[chertipros]

PSV game this year (LTD)
SC:TIT ~ 28.8K
NGS2P ~ 8.3K
DOA5P ~ 7.5K
MLB13 ~ 38.8K
SS ~ 45.3K

Whoa at soul sacrifice

 

[Aquamarine]

PSV game this year (LTD)
SC:TIT ~ 28.8K
NGS2P ~ 8.3K
DOA5P ~ 7.5K
MLB13 ~ 38.8K
SS ~ 45.3K

Thanks for these LTD numbers.

45.3K for SS? Damn, that's disappointing. I thought for sure that Soul Sacrifice would have been more of a robust title.

 

[BishopLamont]

Oh, weird. Thought that looked off. Must have misread the page I was looking at.

So essentially that change in baseline sales was all the price drop?The PS3 and 360 are competition for the Wii U, and will continue to be even after the PS4 and XB1 release.

Price drops are what moved the needle for the GCN, for the PS3, for the 3DS, which will probably need another price drop/SKU release this year.

With that logic then PS4 and Xbone will flop against the PS3/360 forever too? Like I said its the software that matters most, price comes after, I think this year end's software is enough to push the system without a price drop.

 

[Tobor]

I feel the 3DS's decline is driven by convergence devices.

The casual audience really doesn't need a 3DS when they have a smartphone or a tablet.

That primarily leaves the children's market, Nintendo enthusiasts, and gamers who play niche Japanese titles.

Hardly shocking, but I was at a big cookout last weekend and I noticed a group of 8-10 year olds playing video games at a table. Every one of them was on an iOS device playing Minecraft. I instantly recognized the sound effects.

I don't see how Nintendo can compete in this environment when the kids are passing them by.

 

[crazygambit]

Colleagues are trying to convince me that Vita is going to make a comeback, but I personally don't buy it. Nobody wants it... at least, not in the US.

Any significant third-party publisher who supports this platform does so with the knowledge that it's a waste of money and resources. Unless Sony strikes a deal and compensates them, I'd be angered as a shareholder if my money was wasted on creating or even porting games for such negligible sales potential.

We hear publishers talk about not wanting to support Wii U because nobody is buying them, and I am okay with that... but Vita has been worse for a longer stretch of time. That's the platform to avoid.

Sure no one's buying the vita, but the attach rate for those who do seems to be pretty good. Also whatever software numbers you see for retail bear in mind that digital sales are 60% of total sales. Which makes sense being a portable and all. I know I've bought 1 retail title and more than 20 digital (full priced releases too). Sony really need to drop the price of the memory sticks and come up with a 64gb one soon.

 

[Soriku]

PS3/360 prices are too high. No idea why Sony especially didn't cut the PS3's price with the good SW coming. Seems like a perfect opportunity but nope. I guess they want to squeeze those dollars.

Vita is screwed. In terms of big selling games this holiday, E3 showed nothing for it. It's no wonder they didn't cut the price unlike Japan, SW sells HW (and price cuts work in conjunction with SW) and at least in Japan some notable games released for it (albeit many were multiplat). However sales are already <9k/week over there because of lack of SW now and it'd be the same if they cut the price here so getting more money out of it is better. They still need a price cut eventually for it. PS4 will do close to nothing for it.

Any numbers for Devil Summoner: Soul Hackers?

 

[Busaiku]

Price drops are what moved the needle for the GCN, for the PS3, for the 3DS, which will probably need another price drop/SKU release this year.

Price drops alone don't help.
3DS didn't take off until the big hitters came in November.
Wii U is in a terrible position in terms of software, a price drop will not change this much.