Support NeoGAF

[AranhaHunter]

As much as I love my Vita, I have no problem with Sony kicking it to the curb to focus on PS4 projects. PS4 is infinitely more important.

I would have liked to see at least one of the shuttered studios (SOCOM devs, Studio Liverpool, Superbot, etc.) churn out Vita games though.

I agree with this and as a vita owner I want Sony Bend to either develop Uncharted 4 (with ND overseeing while developing a new IP) or a Syphon Filter reboot for the PS4. I would prefer the latter to be honest.

I wouldn't mind a Sanzaru developed Jak 4 cross buy game though.

 

[allan-bh]

I think Sony needs to start the Vita revival from Japan.

They did.

Price Cut+Soul Sacrifice. Vita has fallen under 10k in a week again.

 

[metalslimer]

What doesnt seem to be obvious on this forum that indie titles are by default far more profitable for Sony with the vita. Pumping out cheap gaming snacks that people buy digitally every couple weeks is much cheaper than one huge exclusive every few months. Not only that but Sony is making a killing on these fucking memory cards and with plus and indies, giving us every excuse to fill them up.

Funnily enough at times the vita feels like the PSPgo done right. The idea of buying a handheld game for 50 60 dollars a month is crazy. But 4 15 dollar games? yes please.

What incentive do retailers have to carry systems where the VAST majority of game sales come from indie games/other digital products?

I think Sony needs to start the Vita revival from Japan. I get that Vita is a Sony Europe product but SCEI needs to be the one who push that system in Japan as Japan is the only region in the world where developers are still making handheld games.

Vita is what it is in Japan. A very niche system with the very niche games and PS3 ports coming out for it. Sony has done what they can do. It will only get worse as the transition to PS4 begins/

 

[Blearth]

Latest from the "How Badly is the Wii U Doing?" series:

They'll always have each other. <3

 

[allan-bh]

So we won't get more than that?

round issue, so it's pretty close.

 

[madmackem]

As much as I love my Vita, I have no problem with Sony kicking it to the curb to focus on PS4 projects. PS4 is infinitely more important.

I would have liked to see at least one of the shuttered studios (SOCOM devs, Studio Liverpool, Superbot, etc.) churn out Vita games though.

I really thought we would see sonys big dogs churn out a vita side project every now and then. Doesnt seem to be the case, id love to see a small team from naughty dog cook up something for vita, It doesnt have to be huge just something.

 

[metalslimer]

The scary thing about the 3DS and future handhelds is from the parents I've spoken with they know the 3DS exists and and are buying kindles and nexuses for their kids anyway. I still don't see how Nintendo ships 18 million 3ds this fy. They would need quite the amazing holiday to pull it off.

 

[ThoughtsOfSpeaking]

What incentive do retailers have to carry systems where the VAST majority of game sales come from indie games/other digital products?


Vita is what it is in Japan. A very niche system with the very niche games and PS3 ports coming out for it. Sony has done what they can do. It will only get worse as the transition to PS4 begins/

None. But at this point its going to be dropped anyway. Even if it was more successful, brick and mortar retail cannot support 6 systems this holiday. Something was going to have to give. Online and warehouse retailers have less of an issue. Long as the vitas are selling, even at a slow pace its not an issue.

Even if they drop it, Sony can still sell direct. Just think of it as the gamecube of portables. At this point sony might as well build up the digital library for the eventual Xperia vita.

 

[Tratorn]

round issue, so it's pretty close.

Hm ok, so it should be something like this?

3DS: ~114k (just a bit above 360)
360: ~114k
PS3: ~85k
Wii: ~36k
Wii U: ~35k
Vita: <16k
PSP: <4k
NDS: ???

 

[Mpl90]

The scary thing about the 3DS and future handhelds is from the parents I've spoken with they know the 3DS exists and and are buying kindles and nexuses for their kids anyway. I still don't see how Nintendo ships 18 million 3ds this fy. They would need quite the amazing holiday to pull it off.

Pokémon, Zelda and Mario Party: here it is your amazing Holiday. And this goes without saying that Animal Crossing is impacting hardware sales, already.

 

[IncandescentPrecept]

They did.

Price Cut+Soul Sacrifice. Vita has fallen under 10k in a week again.

And that wonders for the Vita but that was 16 weeks ago. They need to time their releases better. And they need to market their games better in the West. I keep to date with video games releases and I never what is released when.

does that include digital?

No, it doesn't.

 

[Thunder Monkey]

next generation will probably be slow going at first. i expect microsoft to bank heavily off the mainstream wave they've been riding for the last two+ years and hope that carries them above whatever advantages the ps4 has. however, while the price is an issue for microsoft- and $500 is firmly in the 'too damn expensive' category- the always online will really hurt them with this demographic. yeah, lots of families in america have internet, but we're talking about the sort of people that bought a kinect or a wii. are they going to buy a $500 console and hook it up to the internet themselves just to use it as an advanced tv remote controller? i'm not so sure anymore. this means, they're only left with the hardcore gamer, who hates their guts. i do not envy microsoft's position.

sony on the other hand, is looking better than before. unlike microsoft, they've been supporting their console over the last several years with a string of critically-acclaimed releases. ps3 sales have kept close to the xbox, despite never surpassing them. if the xbox one is the failure it's being heralded as, and the ps4 lives up to most expectations, it should do well early on. however, given sony's weakened state in the us compared to the ps2 era, i don't know how many new users will pay for a $400 console month after month. people are already expecting 6 months of the console selling out at retail and i have to wonder why. it's not like the ps2, which doubled as a dvd player. it's not the wii, which introduced a new way to play video games. there are good features with the share button and gaikai, but how much of that will be available at launch? and will the general public even care that much?

i'm not expecting the frenzied rush the ps2 or the wii saw with either of the coming consoles. i will probably be wrong. and while i do expect sellouts through christmas and january, i think things will stabilize right around march and april, with sales around 200k for the ps4 and less than that for the xbox one.

i think the people concerned about a crash expect a situation where neither console really sets the world on fire, and the ps4 just kinda does a ho-hum 150k or so a month.

Oh, the scary thing? XOne bombing as bad as WiiU (even doing alot better than), and PS4 having PS2 level sales? Is going to end up with a drastically shrinking market. With only one console selling... it would have to be selling Wii early years for five or six consecutive years to make up the deficit.

Yes my big fear is that without realizing it the entire market has decided "Dedicated gaming is the past."

 

[allan-bh]

Hm ok, so it should be something like this?

3DS: ~114k (just a bit above 360)
360: ~114k
PS3: ~85k
Wii: ~36k
Wii U: ~35k
Vita: <16k
PSP: <4k
NDS: ???

Yes.

Probably ~15k for Vita and ~4k for PSP.

jvm estimated 34k for NDS.

 

[metalslimer]

Oh, the scary thing? XOne bombing as bad as WiiU (even doing alot better than), and PS4 having PS2 level sales? Is going to end up with a drastically shrinking market. With only one console selling... it would have to be selling Wii early years for five or six consecutive years to make up the deficit.

Yes my big fear is that without realizing it the entire market has decided "Dedicated gaming is the past."

Well it's not the entire market. We may just be in the era where only AAA games can exist at retail on consoles though and that means next gen will be a long and boring one.

 

[Thunder Monkey]

Well it's not the entire market. We may just be in the era where only AAA games can exist at retail on consoles though and that means next gen will be a long and boring one.

It's pretty obvious that I was talking in a hardware sense.

But that will affect software in just the manner you stated.

 

[allan-bh]

and PS4 having PS2 level sales?

Don't worry. That's not going to happen.

 

[John Harker]

So Lego Batman 2: DC Super Heroes, Fast & Furious: Showdown, and Sniper Elite V2 combined to sell ~4000 copies?

Ding

 

[Thunder Monkey]

Don't worry. That's not going to happen.

They'd need to be many times greater. If XOne bombs alongside WiiU and PS4 does just PS2 numbers we'd be looking at the dedicated home console market contracting by 30-50 million units over the prior generation.

That's not a complete market crash... but good God that would be a monumental catastrophe.

I'm hoping for the PS4 to see sustained Wii levels sales for about five years myself. That should get us close to this past generations tallies. WiiU and XOne can make up the difference or hopefully exceed.

I'm being realistic here. Nintendo isn't looking likely to exceed GCN level sales, and I hope XOne doesn't see much success (they may have softened their stances, but the core problems are still there) so that leaves PS4. Sony needs to exceed their prior highest American unit total by at least 50-60%. So they need to sell around 75-85 million units in America. MS and Nintendo can split up the other 20-30 million.

Believe me when I say that is a completely biased assessment. I just don't want MS to see success with their XboxOne, and Nintendo screwed the pooch with WiiU so Sony is the only one that can save the market from significant contraction.

And even I'll admit that selling a sustained 15 million units in America alone for at least five years is asking for a miracle.

So I'll shut up now.

 

[donny2112]

So are we going with this?

Nintendo 3DS = 114K
Xbox 360 = 114K
PS3 = 84K
Wii U = 36K
Wii = 36K
NDS = 34K
PSV = 15K
PSP = 4K

Did I mess anything up?

Per creamsugar, 2ch guy has a rounding issue with Wii U and PS3. 2ch's typical rounding thing is to truncate/ceiling a number, so that should mean those are off by 1K each, compared to if rounding was actually done correctly. That would mean PS3 would be 1K higher and Wii U 1K lower. Planning on using the below for predictions, then, unless someone in the know throws up a big stop sign.

3DS =114,001 (to maintain the cardinal ordering)
360 = 114K
PS3 = 85K
WIU = 35K
PSV = 15K

Edit:
Haven't even compiled the predictions, yet (have the pages saved off from June 10th), so it'll still be a bit to get results, though.

 

[allan-bh]

So they need to sell around 75-85 million units in America. MS and Nintendo can split up the other 20-30 million.

And even I'll admit that selling a sustained 15 million units in America alone for at least five years is asking for a miracle.

Yeah. Huge miracle.

I believe the Wii U will recover and sell reasonably well, while Xbox One will not be the failure that people think will be.

 

[need4speed]

So despite the bad press, the Xbox 360 still outsells its console competition :lol

EDIT: Except the 3DS, but that's handle held so you really can't compare it

 

[Thoraxes]

So despite the bad press, the Xbox 360 still outsells the competition :lol

Except for one.

 

[Daedardus]

Aren't handhelds actualy called handheld consoles? So isn't the MS PR misleading?

 

[A Black Falcon]

Aren't handhelds actualy called handheld consoles? So isn't the MS PR misleading?

Sure, but MS doesn't have a handheld, so they always pretend that handhelds don't count when one outsells their system.

 

[StevieP]

It's pretty obvious that I was talking in a hardware sense.

But that will affect software in just the manner you stated.

Hell. Look at EA's output for the upcoming FY. Look at it just a few years ago even.

The market is facing a contraction, software will stagnate in comparison to the previous generation, and even miracle sales by Sony won't stop that in my opinion.

 

[SmokyDave]

Poor Vita. I wish I could say it deserves better, but with the software slate being as it has been lately, it doesn't.

I still can't see 'em pulling the plug any time soon though.

 

[Joco]

May really missed the traditional Rockstar release.

 

[Black Republican]

PS3/WIIU numbers that bad?

sucks about the Vita too, im sure itll get amazing in the middle and end of its life like the PSP when it comes to JRPGs though!

 

[Sandfox]

The scary thing about the 3DS and future handhelds is from the parents I've spoken with they know the 3DS exists and and are buying kindles and nexuses for their kids anyway. I still don't see how Nintendo ships 18 million 3ds this fy. They would need quite the amazing holiday to pull it off.

They need to get the kids interested so that they could tell their parents that they want the 3DS as a gift over something else.

So despite the bad press, the Xbox 360 still outsells its console competition :lol

EDIT: Except the 3DS, but that's handle held so you really can't compare it

The 360 doesn't really have bad press and the Xbox One bad press didn't really become as big as it is now until E3. There was some bad press during the reveal but that was like a week before the month ended.

 

[Zhuk86]

The biggest story is software sales, lowest since 2000? The industry is in crisis, and I wonder whether Microsoft are right to get rid of used games.

 

[pieatorium]

The biggest story is software sales, lowest since 2000? The industry is in crisis, and I wonder whether Microsoft are right to get rid of used games.

been mentioned a few times in the thread but digital software is a huge part of the market now that wasn't there in 2000

 

[AniHawk]

The biggest story is software sales, lowest since 2000? The industry is in crisis, and I wonder whether Microsoft are right to get rid of used games.

microsoft was wrong to ignore the people who buy games at lower prices in general. sony sold 40-50 million ps2s after the ps3 was introduced, and 150 million games. i have to think a good deal of those people are who bought the ps3 later in its life (where the traditional ps2 market in its prime split between the 360 and the wii).

 

[Wickerbasket]

The 360 doesn't really have bad press and the Xbox One bad press didn't really become as big as it is now until E3. There was some bad press during the reveal but that was like a week before the month ended.

Yeah, that was a confusing comment he made.

I'm still going to buy 360 software, even though there's zero chance of me buying an Xbox One. I can't see the Xbox One's bad reputation rubbing off onto the 360.

 

[AniHawk]

Oh, the scary thing? XOne bombing as bad as WiiU (even doing alot better than), and PS4 having PS2 level sales? Is going to end up with a drastically shrinking market. With only one console selling... it would have to be selling Wii early years for five or six consecutive years to make up the deficit.

Yes my big fear is that without realizing it the entire market has decided "Dedicated gaming is the past."

i think we might see two consoles selling somewhat similarly (like the ps3 and 360 were this gen- with one 50k-100k consistently behind the other), and one in last place, totaling some abysmal sales month after month. maybe microsoft's plan is a real long game where they are looking for a userbase to really explode in 2-3 years and don't care about anemic sales in the period leading up to that. i don't know what third parties will do with larger budgets on smaller userbases. that's probably the most worrying thing about it. and with both sony and microsoft limiting who can access the full game on consoles, i wonder how that will further limit the audience. it's not like all third parties get a cut of a subscription fee.

 

[StevieP]

it's not like all third parties get a cut of a subscription fee.

But the big ones do. They'll be the only ones around at the end of the gen... if that. If this consolidation continues, at least.

 

[antiquegamer]

So despite the bad press, the Xbox 360 still outsells its console competition :lol

EDIT: Except the 3DS, but that's handle held so you really can't compare it

Well this was last month, before the Xbox One launch and E3.

Bah, beaten.
Microsoft could be seeing something in the digital future and want to get head start down that direction, rightly or wrongly time will tell. May be a few years from now, we will come back and said boy we were so wrong just as people did when Xbox launched with only broadband.

microsoft was wrong to ignore the people who buy games at lower prices in general. sony sold 40-50 million ps2s after the ps3 was introduced, and 150 million games. i have to think a good deal of those people are who bought the ps3 later in its life (where the traditional ps2 market in its prime split between the 360 and the wii).

I think they are being too greedy with Xbox 360, they should have them at $149 for 4GB and $249 for 250GB hard drive for the new model. My local Fred Myers was doing $25.00 gift card last month so I was thinking that was the sign for lower price point but I guess they still like trucking along at 100+k per month and the gift card was just to move out the 360S (which I think look way better than the ugly super-slim 360 thing that they are doing now).

 

[QaaQer]

You guys concentrate too much on hardware sales like it's the only figure that matters. You can do well and make money on a small install base if you cultivate the right audience. Sony is trying to do that with the Vita. What's a better indicator is software momentum and attach rate. People who say NSMBU was a failure at driving hardware sales arent looking st the full picture. Its numbers are hugely successful in my opinion. It's clear that nearly everyone who bought the system, like 80%, bought it for that game. It's doing its job..

yup. the narrative building and hubris in these threads are hilarious.

 

[QaaQer]

What incentive do retailers have to carry systems where the VAST majority of game sales come from indie games/other digital products?

Sony being one of threee pillars of the retail gaming business.

Vita is what it is in Japan. A very niche system with the very niche games and PS3 ports coming out for it. Sony has done what they can do. It will only get worse as the transition to PS4 begins/

We'll see. I'm expecting a modest bump with it being a decent PS4 accessory, which will also give it some longevity. Vita in some form will be around as long as the PS4 is.

 

[Celine]

1) It's May.
2) Next-gen consoles were just announced.
3) The Wii U and Vita's problems aren't exactly indicative of the industry as a whole.

"Crash" is an harsh term (when it happened in NA the market contracted to 1/30th of its value in the span of two years).

I would say the unusual long life this past generation last is even more important for the current situation compared to point 1 and 2.
But I am personally sceptic the console market will reach the heights of the past generation (even factoring in the digital sales).

"Video Game Crash" is bullshit. It was an Atari crash coupled with a severe recession.

Back then video games, computer games and arcade games were three distinct term.
So "Video Game Crash" is an apt term although it is often forgotten that hit only North America.

 

[Mpl90]

Right now, I think Xbox One will fragorously fail at launch: 499.99 price, lots of game in common with PS4/PS3/360, but above all the whole DRM/online check clusterfuck, that translates into much less possible sales to begin with. I can see it doing near January 2013 Wii U number next January. Instead, PS3 seems to have the favour of the core audience, preorders are going pretty well so far, with a much better price to begin with. Still, both PS4 and One have the handicap of lots of cross-gen titles (especially, lots of cross-gen titles with no cross-gen multiplayer), and actually PS4's first party launch lineup seems weaker than Xbone's, so, while I believe launch will be good/great, it'll be interesting to see how PS4 does after Holidays.

Anyone here can give us an update on Animal Crossing: New Leaf's digital sales? Did it surpass Fire Emblem in the 3DS Only All-Time Charts?

 

[Exterminieren]

The 3DS still isnt shifting enough with killer apps. The market has changed so much hat handhelds really are up against it.

Let's not pretend that Donkey Kong port and Luigi sequel are killer app material. Animal Crossing, Zelda, Mario Party, Pokemon... That's your killer app software there.

 

[AniHawk]

we'll see how this plays out, but i think one of the very dumbest things microsoft did was release a third xbox 360 at e3- one that greatly resembles the xbox one. it's like they saw the market confusion with the ds/3ds and wii/wii u and decided they needed themselves a slice of that. maybe microsoft isn't expecting to ship a ton of systems this year, and wants to have something for parents when they ask cashiers for 'the new xbox' this christmas.

 

[Striek]

I think they are being too greedy with Xbox 360, they should have them at $149 for 4GB and $249 for 250GB hard drive for the new model. My local Fred Myers was doing $25.00 gift card last month so I was thinking that was the sign for lower price point but I guess they still like trucking along at 100+k per month and the gift card was just to move out the 360S (which I think look way better than the ugly super-slim 360 thing that they are doing now).

They did have a $50 off promotion for the holidays which seemed to work well so its definitely surprising they didn't drop it permanently after that expired.

 

[Pie and Beans]

As Aquamarine's chart indicates the gulf widening and widening between Gamecube sales and WiiU sales performance, I wonder when people will become more accepting of my prediction that the WiiU will probably ultimately fall short of the Gamecube's 21.74 million lifetime. Possible way short.

 

[Exterminieren]

As Aquamarine's chart indicates the gulf widening and widening between Gamecube sales and WiiU sales performance, I wonder when people will become more accepting of my prediction that the WiiU will probably ultimately fall short of the Gamecube's 21.74 million lifetime. Possible way short.

I think we need big-hitting titles outside of launch to say for certain. The Gamecube period had the release of Melee, after all.

 

[wrowa]

I'm still not sure if the PS4 will sell as good as people think right now. Pre-order numbers seem very good at this point, but in the end it only tells us that hardcore gamer are excited for the plattform. The question is if your average gamer is interested in picking the console up. Right now, I don't see any games or features that would sell the console to those people. So, I'm a little cautious.

(At the same time I think that Xbox One will likely do better than many people expect. Kinect and TV stuff might appeal more to the casual crowd than we think and with Titanfall MS has at lest a [timed] exclusive that could turn out to be the big hit of the next generation.)

As Aquamarine's chart indicates the gulf widening and widening between Gamecube sales and WiiU sales performance, I wonder when people will become more accepting of my prediction that the WiiU will probably ultimately fall short of the Gamecube's 21.74 million lifetime. Possible way short.

They are going to accept it when/if Nintendo's holiday line-up is released and did nothing. Or at latest when Mario Kart 8 is out and did nothing to help the hardware either.

Before that there's just nothing to say. Of course the sales won't just get better as long as Nintendo helds their games captive. That's obvious. Wii U's sink-or-swim test is in Fall, not now.

 

[Bruno MB]

So around 60,000 units for Resident Evil: Revelations, that's beyond horrible, poor Capcom can't catch a break. And the next bomb comes out in just two months (Lost Planet 3).

Capcom probably still aren't conscious about the huge damage Resident Evil: Operation Raccoon City and Resident Evil 6 did to their franchise.

 

[wrowa]

Revelations bombing is a horrible, horrible shame. It's rough around the edges, but still the best thing that happened to the franchise this generation. But judging by these sales I can probably forget about my dreams that they'll follow up with a bigger budget sequel.

Instead, Capcom will probably feel confirmed in their view that RE needs to be more of an action game to be successful. Yay.

 

[ElementalMage]

I love it how big these threads get given we barely get any info public anymore

 

[Pie and Beans]

I think we need big-hitting titles outside of launch to say for certain. The Gamecube period had the release of Melee, after all.

They are going to accept it when/if Nintendo's holiday line-up is released and did nothing. Or at latest when Mario Kart 8 is out and did nothing to help the hardware either.

Before that there's just nothing to say. Of course the sales won't just get better as long as Nintendo helds their games captive. That's obvious. Wii U's sink-or-swim test is in Fall, not now.

The problem of course being that its the exact same set of games (not the same content!) that released on the Gamecube which is why there even is a gulf anyway. Maybe the assumption is the Wii turned more people into rabid Kart and Smash fans to go out and buy a console just for them, but I'm not so sure.

Is there a 20 million baseline for a Nintendo home console, or does it go lower and raise the concerning issue of their now shrinking marketshare?