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[Mister Megative]

We have to jump back to ltds to spin this but there's a pretty clear monthly pattern emerging here. And it's going to really turn when we get into years 3-4 when PS3 and 360 started accelerating after their relatively tepid debuts.

Even with that record launch PS4's already failed to keep pace ltd with actual market leaders too (Wii, PS2). Comparing it continually to last gen's last placer is sort of missing the wider issue.

It's only year 1.5.........we have no idea what will happen in 3-4 years. But right now, consoles are doing just fine.

 

[ethomaz]

700k would be bad if was exclusive, but I'm pretty sure that justify a port.

Anyway, we can't make this estimates too serious, could be better, or even worst.

I don't thing it could be that better... Japan only is close to 100% PS4... RotW 80-90%? Rest of EU 70-80%?

 

[Javin98]

And the "consoles are dead" posts are back.... It's almost like a cycle, it seems. Slow month, some posters panic. Big month, they forget the slow months and start celebrating. Slow month, panic again. Holiday month, PS4/XB1 is a fucking beast! Dat hypocrisy.

 

[Obliterator]

Well, actually, I made a joke about an article from a respected publication (featuring an NPD analyst) specifically calling the game's chart position "impressive" while a group of "salty-assed Gaffers" have been sort of comically quick to write it off.

What is weird to me is your crusade-like insistence on saying it's not impressive when many people have stated their reasons for finding it impressive.

He ain't the only one who works in the industry assessing how its doing.

It's just my opinion. I don't have to agree with that sentiment.

 

[Conduit]

Probably because a lot of people that come in here aren't in the US and don't understand baseball.

Yep! And season is right now.

 

[Mister Megative]

360 and X1 are not shifted?


My guesstimates because EU and RotW favors PS4... not real numbers.

Yeah, switch the X1 and 360 figures. It's midnight

 

[Striek]

Ahhhh, the frontloaded launches of the PS4 + X1 vs. the supply constrained 360 and horrifically overpriced PS3 can only be spun against the hand of doom for so long.

Just like the "3DS is ahead of the DS!!!1" crowd had to eventually accept that systems fate, so too shall the PS4+X1 are doing fine proponents gain acceptance in time.

For shits and giggles someone should add in complete MoM sales into the equation (last-gen included). This transition is even more pathetic than just the headline sales.

 

[KillerSloth]

And the "consoles are dead" posts are back.... It's almost like a cycle, it seems. Slow month, some posters panic. Big month, they forget the slow months and start celebrating. Slow month, panic again. Holiday month, PS4/XB1 is a fucking beast! Dat hypocrisy.

Yeah it's foolish. Most games now are next gen only, sales are going t increase and price drops are due.

When 360 sold 150k in 2007 were people saying consoles were in trouble then? It sold 50 mill in the US.

 

[freefornow]

PS4 sales first 18 months: 23 million
PS3 sales first 18 months: 12 million

.

Can you (or someone) break the PS4 sales into 6 month figures? Eg First 6 months sold X, last 6 months sold X

 

[sörine]

It's only year 1.5.........we have no idea what will happen in 3-4 years. But right now, consoles are doing just fine.

Just fine is selling a third gen on gen? Okay.

When 360 sold 150k in 2007 were people saying consoles were in trouble then? It sold 50 mill in the US.

Nope, consoles were doing fine then since the market leader was doing 600k. What's the market leader doing now?

 

[ZSaberLink]

wait what? that sounds wrong

at least you're a good sport about it (I thought it would increase too tbh, see my prediction)

I was expecting 50K or a little less to be honest. The month of Mario Kart 8's release, the Wii U only managed 60K after all in a similar timeframe of 2 days. Hopefully Nintendo can continue selling Splatoon to folks, put some nice updates, etc. and really knock it out of the park at E3 to avoid a disastrous summer...

 

[Obliterator]

Anything against those 2 is going to lose....doesn't really prove anything. We are only getting mainly next gen exclusives now things are going to pick up.

That's true and I've stated multiple times consoles aren't doomed currently.

That said, the current PS4 performance for 2015 as market leader is pretty underwhelming imo.

 

[HomerSimpson-Man]

Yeah the biggest thing that sticks out this generation is how the leading console really isn't selling at a higher volume. Nothing against the PS4, on a global scale its doing great, but for a market leader in the US its kind of underwhelming in comparison to some previous gens. For comparison for just market leader

PS4: 154k
Wii: 675k
PS2: 288k

Still, the PS2 and Wii were cheaper systems at $299.99 and $249.99 respectively, and PS4 hasn't even had a real official price drop.

 

[ethomaz]

Can you (or someone) break the PS4 sales into 6 month figures? Eg First 6 months sold X, last 6 months sold X

I guess is flat.

The last sold thought figures shows PS4 flat YoY for WW comparing 2014 vs 2015.

 

[BruceLeeRoy]

We have any idea on the difference between X1, PS4?

 

[KillerSloth]

Just fine is selling a third gen on gen? Okay.

?? PS4 will easily outsell ps3 and is way ahead...yes that's fine.,.the reason there is contraction is the wii....that is a special case we won;t ever see again./

 

[Aceofspades]

Please share with us what the development cost for the XB1 version of The Witcher 3 was.
Thanks.

The game costs around 32m with 35m additional marketing costs.

So we are talking 67m. We can assume an even split between PC/PS4/X1 so that would be 22m each.

I'm not sure if 700k copies can be profitable to a 22m project.

But its just me speculating, no need to be aggressive.

 

[Elandyll]

people going "of course."

you realise this needs more context as it is relative, right?

i mean if ps4 is down 8% from a monthly of 300k total vs xbone up by 10% from a 150k total...

Not counting that the terrible sales of the XB1 in May 2014 were also due to the early announcement of the Kinectless bundle too (May 13th 2014 for a June 9th release)

But yeah... People thinking that Sony is going to wait until November for a price cut at this point, I don't know what else to tell you...
I'd be shocked if the PS4 doesn't go at least $50 down this E3 (for the 500Gb model that is).

 

[gotstrangepowers]

We have any idea on the difference between X1, PS4?

13k

 

[Immaculate]

did we get splatoon numbers yet?

 

[mo60]

No way...Anything against ps2 and wiii will look worse, wii was a phenominom for 3-4 years and ps2 numbers are godly and we will never see anything like that again...Sales will go up again. there is no PAttern, 360 sold 50 mill in the US and had numerous low months of 150k and even lower.





Anything against those 2 is going to lose....doesn't really prove anything. We are only getting mainly next gen exclusives now things are going to pick up.

The 360 sold around around 42 million in the US

 

[Kolx]

Why are people surprised about Splatoon? Yes it only went for sale for 3 days but still all the 5 games after it are not even new so how hard it's to beat them?

 

[gcubed]

did we get splatoon numbers yet?

Yes

 

[FATALITY]

60% PS4 on The Witcher 3, which is about 1.5x a 40% Xbox One market share.

Assuming the proportion stays constant relative to market shares outside the US and the 1.3 million number for PC, as well as putting the 15% or so digital split for consoles, we should get to around 2:1 sales.

So, about 1.8 million on PS4 and around 900k on Xbox, total worldwide? Something around there?

i did some weird math based on 60% advantage of ps4 in uk and us
that would put

1.62m on ps4
1.30m on pc
1.08m xb

but judging by how xb is pretty much dead outside of those markets
i would say
2.0m on ps4
1.3m on pc
0.7m xb

 

[KillerSloth]

That's true and I've stated multiple times consoles aren't doomed currently.

That said, the current PS4 performance for 2015 as market leader is pretty underwhelming imo.

360 had many months at 150 k and it sold 50 mill in the US, 2007 360 had several low months....People are overreacting.

 

[Javin98]

Yeah it's foolish. Most games now are next gen only, sales are going t increase and price drops are due.

When 360 sold 150k in 2007 were people saying consoles were in trouble then? It sold 50 mill in the US.

Trust me, in June, if the PS4 does 350K or above, those posters will pretend as if the poor sales in May never happened. The main thing is the PS4 needs a killer price cut to increase momentum. It's still doing well at $399, which was the launch price. Imagine $299.

 

[LordOcidax]

Yes

How many?

 

[FATALITY]

so the real npd starts here

 

[Welfare]

We have any idea on the difference between X1, PS4?

152k - 139k

13k, same as April.

 

[JohnnyFootball]

Surprised and disappointed to see Bloodborne leave the Top 10. I was hoping that game would have some legs.

 

[Immaculate]

Yes

...and how did it do?

 

[KingSnake]

I don't think the hardware numbers for PS4 and Xbone are that bad given the context. We see how sales bump significantly when there is some good offer or when a big exclusive is launching. There isn't that much happening now with them in terms of games (The Witcher 3 doesn't have the profile of a big system seller) so the market is rather at a low level. But until now it reacted promptly to incentives. Once it will start not to react to those it will be worrying.

 

[theviolenthero]

We have any idea on the difference between X1, PS4?

XB1 "won" April by 13,000 systems.
PS4 "won" May by 13,000 systems.

 

[vin-buc]

Doesn't it match the install base though?

Look at the last few months - xbox sku have led in some games. Many predictions this month that One was gonna take it but they lost everything this month. Not a single xbox sku leading game for "current gen" hardware. And they lost hardware.

Next month may be worse for xbox.

 

[Obliterator]

360 had many months at 150 k and it sold 50 mill in the US, 2007 360 had several low months....People are overreacting.

No I'm not. I'm not even really reacting at all . Just talking.

Again, its 2015 performance as market leader isn't all that great. It's an ok thing to say. Regardless of reason, price, game lineup, etc, its just nothing that's incredible. That has nothing to do with last year. Its down YoY for the entire first 5 months cumulatively.

That's not exactly a great performance. That doesn't mean its awful either.

 

[RexNovis]

We have any idea on the difference between X1, PS4?

13k exact same as last month.

 

[ethomaz]

XB1 "won" April by 13,000 systems.
PS4 "won" May by 13,000 systems.

We need a more concrete numbers... not this rounded 13k

 

[ZSaberLink]

Someone can correct me if I'm wrong, but I think it did slightly better than Driveclub on 2 platforms instead of 1.

It did 500 units, so no.

There was the exact same discussion about Wii U HW in May 2014 thread. When again there was the data only for few days of selling MK8 and the Wii U for may was abysmal. Doom everywhere, MK no longer a system seller etc.

I'm not suggesting that Wii U will suddenly explode in June, but we already know what happened in Japan in the second week and we already know that Splatoon held up quite well even in Europe, so maybe waiting to see June results for the whole "launch" picture is not such an outrageous idea.

The game has a good buzz, it might help for legs and selling hardware even after the second day.

Here's pretty much my hope. I had a feeling that Splatoon's marketing in NoA was really crappy compared to Japan's though. In Japan it was the 9th most marketed product in the country at one point. I doubt NoA got anywhere near that, plus the "kid/squid" commercials made the game look slow as heck imo.

Still, the PS2 and Wii were cheaper systems at $299.99 and $249.99 respectively, and PS4 hasn't even had a real official price drop.

Neither has the Wii U for that matter =P.

Hey cream, could we have some small handheld pies or something?

 

[Conduit]

Wow PS4 version of almost every game (except Minecraft) outsold the XBone counterpart. I don't think I've seen that happen before. Usually at least some game like a sports or FPS game sells better on Xbone.

Sports games are selling good on Xbone, but NOT better than on PS4.

 

[Javin98]

Also, those posters claiming "consoles are dead" tend to forget that the PS4 is still $399. Most casuals won't jump on board until the sweet spot, which is $299.

 

[Mister Megative]

Just fine is selling a third gen on gen? Okay.


Nope, consoles were doing fine then since the market leader was doing 600k. What's the market leader doing now?

Just fine is PS4/X11 sales compared to their precursors. Period. The market leader selling 600k was an aberration. A phenomenon. Wii sales eventually fell off a cliff steeper than you can imagine.

 

[gcubed]

...and how did it do?

136k

 

[Welfare]

So 3DS.

How bad was the flop?

 

[theprodigy]

It did 500 units, so no.

no that was the difference between FFX/X-2 PS4 and Project Cars, not the sales total

 

[sörine]

Still, the PS2 and Wii were cheaper systems at $299.99 and $249.99 respectively, and PS4 hasn't even had a real official price drop.

$299 in 2002 vs $249 in 2008 vs $399 in 2015

or

$394 in 2015 vs $274 in 2015 vs $399 in 2015

Nevermind that Wii was still going for well above retail price second hand even at this point.

 

[ZSaberLink]

Also, those posters claiming "consoles are dead" tend to forget that the PS4 is still $399. Most casuals won't jump on board until the sweet spot, which is $299.

PS3 was far more expensive at this same time and still sold more than the PS4 just did right?

no that was the difference between FFX/X-2 PS4 and Project Cars, not the sales total

Oh... ok. I was feeling really bad for Project Cars. So Farming Simulator sold over 50K ?

 

[ethomaz]

It did 500 units, so no.

So I guess I need to explain the cream post...

pCARs - FF sales < 500
pCARs - 60k < 500

pCARS ~ 60.5k

Edit - Yeap... bomba.

 

[Welfare]

PS3 was far more expensive at this same time and still sold more than the PS4 just did right?

PS3 outsold the PS4 by 57k in their respective 2nd May.

By retrospect, the 360 outsold the One by 16k.

Wii outsold the Wii U by 248k in it's 3rd May.

 

[AniHawk]

And the "consoles are dead" posts are back.... It's almost like a cycle, it seems. Slow month, some posters panic. Big month, they forget the slow months and start celebrating. Slow month, panic again. Holiday month, PS4/XB1 is a fucking beast! Dat hypocrisy.

which posters in particular behave this way. maybe you can provide examples.

 

[BlackJace]

DS2RB < 23k

I wonder what Atlus thinks of this number...

They couldn't have expected it to do anything glamorous.