The first.
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NPD Sales Results for November 2015 [Up3: Combined Hardware For PS4 + XB1 + Wii U]
- Thread starter Nirolak
- Start date
The first.
Welfare
Member
The PS2 launched in October, so where the comparison ends, the PS4's 25th month is November while the PS2's is October.
serversurfer
Member
It took a little while for PS1 to catch on; it was Sony's first console, after all. Plus, it sold well for 10 years. At lot of those sales came after the PS2 launched. Similarly, the PS2 sold ~155M, but wasn't much over 100M by the time the PS3 launched, six years after PS2.
PS1 was around 50m when the PS2 launched. Ended up selling for another 7 years until it finally hit 100m. It had crazy legs. PS2 did the same. Sold another 50m after the PS3 launched. PS3 is sort of the exception as it had an unusually long life span. And considering the whacked out architecture that's probably why Sony didn't drop it down to ultra cheap prices so it can keep selling after PS4 comes out. It'll be interesting to see how PS4 legs out.
I agree. I dont think anyone expected these kind of sales from the PS4.
ethomaz
Banned
PS4 will end 2015 near PS2... amazing performance.
LTDs at this same point:
PSX 4.2m (Sep 97)
PS2 11.7m (Oct 02)
PS3 6.1m (Nov 08)
PS4 10.9m (-this month-)
Heeeeem, no.
PS4 sold 8.57 million in 2002, PS4 will be lucky with 6 million. Not even close.
LegendofDragoonLives
Member
I'm confused. Based on the chart, it states that it's less than a million behind?!
Because at launch PS4 sold more, but in the second year, PS2 sold a lot more, like i said 8.57 million VS < 6 million most likely.
ethomaz
Banned
Next moth added to the chart PS2 did ~900k.
If PS4 do anything over 1m it will ends close to PS2.
Soooooooooo, yes.
After that PS4 will be way below in January because PS2 got a 1.9m.
GifGafIsTheBestGaf
Member
do you guys think it is safe to assume that both consoles wont do less than 1.2M this december?
That's... not what the chart and LTD numbers are showing though?
[edit] Also, thanks Square for the data and chart. Very nice
gundamkyoukai
Member
Still i don't think anyone expect them to be so close before the gen start .
Even more so with the xbox brand being much bigger than during the PS2 days .
Still i think everyone know PS2 going to out pace everyone next year .
Yeah that is a safe bet IMO .
Not certain about X1 but i think PS4 should hit 1.5 million that is if sony shipped enough.
slavesnyder
Member
I'd say not safe. A million would still be awesome for Xbox.
Sorry, are you talking about PS2 in 2002 VS PS4 in 2015 or PS2 LT VS PS4 LT?
Because with that comment i thought you was talking about PS4 in 2015 VS PS2 in 2002...
If you talk about LT then yeah. But you'r numbers are wrong, PS2 sold 1.32 million the second November, and then 2.73 million in December.
ethomaz
Banned
I was using 2001 numbers for PS2... that was my mistake.
I was talking about the graph too.. launch aligned.
In that case my bad too, i thought you was talking about 2002 VS 2015.
PS4 definitive, and i hardly see XB1 under those numbers too...
GifGafIsTheBestGaf
Member
yeah, after reading abdiel's post i feel that both consoles will do good. now i think xb1 wont perform as it did last december but i still think it will do better than the ps4 did that same december
i hope we get more info from the other retail gaffers for their respective stores if possible
XB1 will do better than last December imo.
If it did better than last November, when 90% of guys ( including me) thought it was gonna be down YOY, it will most likely be up even this December.
And for what i see currenlty, December is still a bigger month than November...Maybe one day November will become bigger, but now, December is still bigger thanks one extra week.
So, XB1 should sell more than this November.
GifGafIsTheBestGaf
Member
just to be sure im not mistaken with the numbers, you are saying xbox will do more than the 1.5M it did last december?
i think im underestimating december if so
???
XB1 sold only 1.29 million last December... xD
The MOM increase was around 5%, 1.23m to 1.29m.
I believe we will see a similar trend even this time, with December just barely over this November.
slavesnyder
Member
Last december Npd was also 5 weeks, right?
Hardware talk is fun and all, but there's something else I'd like opinions on. Last year the baseline to chart was >600K, and thanks to insiders we know lots of games did very well. This year the baseline to chart was <400K, and there were a lot fewer games that did great overall. I know Fallout and Battlefront ate up a lot, but is it healthy for all the sales to be concentrated in 4 annual titles (COD and sports) and only 2 new releases in one of the biggest months in the year?
December is always a 5 weeks month.
March, June, September, and December have 5 weeks.
All others months 4 weeks. January too, some Times is a 5 weeks month, but usually has 4 weeks.
DeepEnigma
Gold Member
Price has a lot to do with that.
The PS3 is still $200, where as the PS2 was $99 for some time.
If the PS4 is priced like the PS2, and by the use of tech it can easily do so, it will have far more legs than the PS3.
7 milion more likely.
slavesnyder
Member
Thanks, Ryng.
And Dec was always bigger than Nov in console sales I suppose.
Nevertheless I still habe the feeling that this could change this year.
Not sure enough to bet, though.
No big Nintendo releases this year.
I.e. smash and Pokémon. So that's 2 spots with no replacement
DeadOnions
Member
Yeah software has been rough all year but hardware has been great. The only explanation I can think of is increased digital sales and/or GWG and Plus taking away sales from the AAA lot.
theprodigy
Member
3 spots, Pokemon takes two
but even then, I did say that the top 10 cutoff would be much lower than it was last year due to last year having more mid-tier titles
Short of long tail firesales, the PS4 will never, ever hit $99.
CosmicQueso
Member
I like you. This is a great question.
Volumes needed to get into December Top 10
2014: >650k
2013: >550k
2012: >500k
2014 December Top 10 Sales distribution (removing all axis markings and values):
slavesnyder
Member
So what's the diagnosis, doctor?
- Games get bigger, played longer, so less games per time played?
- More online gaming? Same as above basically.
- Concentration on main franchises?
- More digital sales instead of retail?
- Consoles used for netflix and other stuff instead?
- Consoles being bought but afterwards people use them less and fiddle around on their iPad?
Yup. Always. The only time that November was bigger than December was during The Launch month of some console, but for obvius reason.
It need to sell ~2.84 Million This December for sell 7.00 Million... Not gonna happen.
1) PS2 launched a month earlier than PS3/4, so it's November sales will show up next month with PS4's December sales. (and then PS2's December sales will show up with PS4's January sales.)
2) PS2's era had consoles usually doubling in Nov->Dec sales. PS4's era is BF-heavy, so it's doing good to be flat MOM in weekly sales (which is +25% MOM for the full month sales with Dec being 5 weeks and Nov being 4 weeks).
Or anytime sales were pushed from Dec to Nov in large enough quantities. Happened during Wii shortage period with extra Nov supply at the cost of Dec supply (i.e. the 2m Nov it had). Comes close to happening (or happening) with super awesome BF sales overwhelming demand for core consoles in Dec., too. See PS3 2012 and the close calls of PS360, PS4/XB1 in the last 5 years.
slavesnyder
Member
Okay. Thank you.
I still think November could be bigger than December this year.
1) October was really weak because everyone held their purse tight for black friday in November
2) Also there were the two big bundles piling up pre-orders which fell into November, too
3) Maybe consumers thoughr they were clever and made some Christmas shopping in November/black friday already, as it was not a given the price would stay down in December, too.
On the other hand we have Christmas, temporary price drops, Battlefront and 5 weeks.
Difficult.
GifGafIsTheBestGaf
Member
ah lol, i didnt have the numbers in hand so i quickly skimmed that thread and saw those numbers.
yeah, i was thinking around 1.30m for xb1 at least that's what i was going to go with in the next prediction thread. glad im not completely lost going by your expectations for december's npd
thanks for the input
Right, but like i Said, Nov > Dec is never happened, withouth le Launch months.
Some Times were Close, like You Said Wii in 2008, but even in that Case December was a bit better. ( 2.04 VS 2.15 ).
But, if i remember correcly, one time The 360 has an equal Nov-Dec, both super flat at 1.7 Million.
Well, in that Case, November is equal, but still not bigger than Dec.
Well... Wait and see haha. I personally expect a 50-100k increase for both. We'll see.
jhmtehgamr20xx
Banned
It hardly did better this Nov vs. last. It was actually statistically flat YOY.
So it's possible it'll at most be flat YOY this Dec, if not a bit down actually.
slavesnyder
Member
Seems more reasonable, but this November was so freakish that I don't know what to think.
We were depressed in October, amazed in November so I try to keep my optimism in check.
Plus, I swore to myself, if george comes in again and gives his theory about the months outcome I will treat it like an opinion among others. No more, no less.
My district isn't having any kind of stock issues with either console. I did notice the battlefront and uncharted PS4 bundles are in-store only now. So my guess is those are done after the holidays. Black Ops 3 bundle probably will be the go to bundle after the holidays.
Guys, George is a insidier, but he don't know what the numbers are until they come out.
I mean, he is a normal predictor like us here after all... he may be right, he may be wrong.
I don't think you should change you'r prediction only for what George believe.
slavesnyder
Member
That's what I and a lot of others figured out, too...
Dash_Riprock
Member
Wow, I didn't know that. Could this mean XB1 sales have peaked at this price point?
Welfare
Member
Price drop happened last year, and if it were down YOY in December, it would do less than what it did this month.
It's not possible, and don't forget that this month has 3 weeks where the Xbox One is available for $299.
PS3 2012
I chalk this (and 360) up to launch month of PS4/XB1 affecting the last gen consoles, so it could still fall under a launch effect.
Welfare
Member
With this talk about December, I've decided to look back a bit (2010) to see just how much the difference between November and December has shrunk. This comparison is focusing on the weekly average, which is 4 for November and 5 for December.
2010
So far so good. Even with an extra week, the average is better compared to November's 4 weeks.
However... this won't be the case for many consoles in the next few years.
2011
2012
2013 (Decided against having Xbox One and PS4 here as they were not available for an entire 4 weeks in November)
2014
Starting in 2011, on average, less consoles were sold per week in December compared to November, and in some cases, December as an entire month is actually lower than November.
With both the Xbox One and PS4 being available for $299 for 3 weeks and 2 weeks respectively, it'll be interesting to see how December performs.
2010
So far so good. Even with an extra week, the average is better compared to November's 4 weeks.
However... this won't be the case for many consoles in the next few years.
2011
2012
2013 (Decided against having Xbox One and PS4 here as they were not available for an entire 4 weeks in November)
2014
Starting in 2011, on average, less consoles were sold per week in December compared to November, and in some cases, December as an entire month is actually lower than November.
With both the Xbox One and PS4 being available for $299 for 3 weeks and 2 weeks respectively, it'll be interesting to see how December performs.
Thanks for these info, gives a new perspective for Decemeber