Global sales prob less than 4 million....
Sub 3m
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Circana November 2024: #1 Black Ops 6 #2 Madden #3 FC 25 #4 CF 25 ; PS5 #1 Units + Rev, NSW #2 Units + Rev / Switch reaches 46.6M passing PS2
- Thread starter Luminoth-4545
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jm89
Member
Wouldn't this only work if Gamepass is a smaller fraction for the sector? That seems a little unlikely to me considering they were the sub leader in terms of revenue.
Woopah
Member
Correct. That is my point that we don't know what share Gamepass has.
If non-mobile subscription also includes NSO, PSN, GeForce Now, Ubisoft+ etc. then Gamepass would only be a fraction of the sector.
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Astray
Member
I wrote this one year ago and I still stand by my prediction.. We are witnessing the brand getting sunsetted in real-time. We might even soon hear about production lines stopping (if they haven't already).
There will be business books written on this imo.
See you just posted this on an Xbox, so checkmate, Pony!
Tiago Rodrigues
Member
This would mean less than 4M consoles sold WW...in its 3rd full year on the market...for 2 different consoles at 2 different price points...together, including the cheapest console ever released for them, Series S.
Sub 3m
There's no way to make this a success story for them.
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There is rumour that it already has at the beginning of the year but not been said. Production dates on bought XSX seem to be from 2023 too. I personally think somebody would have known by now if it had and there is still a trickle of supply, but who knows.
Synastry
Member
Checking the Amazon video game top 100 best sellers list there are no XB Series consoles in the top 100 while the PS5 as of now in.
Sub 3m
#15
#17
#19
#84
I just don't see the Xbox doing 850K this December.
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Tiago Rodrigues
Member
Black Friday month is always bigger in the USA as far as i know, right?
There's a chance Series will sell less than 400k in December.
Astray
Member
This lines up with anecdotal evidence on my end, but my region is one where Xbox has basically deprecated support so it can't be a barometer.
Unknown?
Member
Is that just talking US or worldwide? I'm assuming US so WW would be sub 4 million. We're getting close to Dreamcast numbers in a year that the console should be near peak!
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It's most likely not even Top 25.
Spider Man 2 was #24 YTD in last months report, but somehow mangaged to jump to #20 despite only being #14 in November. Which means the sales numbers should be very close in that area, so its rather unlikely that Veilguard hit that small range of sales numbers.
At least Suicide Squad, EA Sports FC24 and P3 Reload (and one other title) are very likely ahead of Veilguard. And after that, who knows who might be ahead? For example, in August Spider Man 2 was sandwiched between Sea of Thieves and Stellar Blade YTD, so these two are probably not super far behind in sales now.
Or Silent Hill 2 was #3 for October and #15 for November. Veilguard was #10 and #6. Who has the overall higher sales now? I'd assume its probably Silent Hill 2, but who knows..
H-I-M
Member
The point, luv, is that even after the Switch 2's release, the Xbox Series are still going to get last behind the OLD switch 1.
Tiago Rodrigues
Member
There's nothing remotely surprising about any of this.My predictions for November 2025 :
1. Switch 2
2. PS5
3. Switch
4. Xbox Series
Can't wait for the meltdowns
That said Switch's sales will depend on Nintendo's ability to keep both consoles on the market. They may want to "kill" one since their prices will be similar and the new one is backwards compatible. They may not see a reason to make 2 Switches. They will probably want to go full steam ahead for the Switch 2, which will be sold out for months.
jm89
Member
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Unknown?
Member
If Switch 1 stays $299/$399 and Switch 2 is $449 or even $499, Switch 1 is dead. They'd need a price cut but since they're using Nvidia, I don't see it happening.
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RetroGamingUK
Member
Because their whole reason for getting into console gaming in the first place what to have Microsoft’s platform in every living room.
Insanemaelstrom
Gold Member
I have been thinking about the subscription spending and gp.
From April last year:
in.ign.com
So even with stalled growth, customer spending increased by 2%.
Assuming GP is 20% of the market and every other subscription service remained stalled, so gp was the only one responsible for 6% increase in total spending, that means gp revenue increased by 30%
Maths:
Assume total spending = 100
GP is 20% of total spending, gp = 20
Assuming total spending increased by 6%, TS = 106
Assuming only gp was responsible for the 2%, gp(2024) = 26
Therefore, you, gp growth = 26/20 = 1.3.
Hence gp grew 30%. Even considering 16% due to increased price, that's 14% increase in revenue due to either new subs or previous subs upgrading to higher tier.
Not bad at all, imo. ( Assuming my math isn't horribly wrong).
From April last year:
Growth of Video Game Subscription Spending Stalls, New Data Suggests
Likely approaching a plateau.
So even with stalled growth, customer spending increased by 2%.
Assuming GP is 20% of the market and every other subscription service remained stalled, so gp was the only one responsible for 6% increase in total spending, that means gp revenue increased by 30%
Maths:
Assume total spending = 100
GP is 20% of total spending, gp = 20
Assuming total spending increased by 6%, TS = 106
Assuming only gp was responsible for the 2%, gp(2024) = 26
Therefore, you, gp growth = 26/20 = 1.3.
Hence gp grew 30%. Even considering 16% due to increased price, that's 14% increase in revenue due to either new subs or previous subs upgrading to higher tier.
Not bad at all, imo. ( Assuming my math isn't horribly wrong).
DForce
NaughtyDog Defense Force
Sony has major first-party games releasing next year.
Microsoft is going to release their big titles next year on PlayStation.
The Switch 2 is going to be released.
Sony will have marketing rights to GTA6 (assuming it releases at the end of 2025).
lol.
LordCBH
Member
Don’t forget Sony also likely will have some 3rd party partnership titles coming out too like they did the past couple of years.
Sub 3m
Everyone wanted to check my post history now I make sure everyone check my post history .
Xbox as a console brand seems to be really dying lately can Scarlett change that or will it be a short lived project?
There was more hype around Xbox Scorpio than there is around Scarlett , Xbox One X started off with a nice push from Microsoft but it seems like they quickly gave up on it you can get a Xbox One X for $402 right now but no one seems to care that it's $97 off . You can get the Xbox One S A.D for...
Klayzer
Member
Lost Soul starring Noctis, is on my radar.
Heisenberg007
Gold Journalism
One of us is completely missing something here 
(could be me, but my mind isn't accepting what you're saying).
Increasing the price would increase the revenue coming from it proportionately. If there is disproportionate increase, then it means the numbers of subscribers changed.
In this case, it seems like they decreased.
In your case, we will have to assume that other subscription revenue decreased. But we don't have any evidence of that. For all we know, other subscriptions revenue increased as well, and Game Pass isn't solely responsible for the 8% growth in subscription revenue.
Feel free to drop the convo if you feel like we started moving in circle
(could be me, but my mind isn't accepting what you're saying).I think that's what the data is. It's the same thing.
Increasing the price would increase the revenue coming from it proportionately. If there is disproportionate increase, then it means the numbers of subscribers changed.
In this case, it seems like they decreased.
Unless I'm missing something, I don't think that would be true. If the sector grew by 8%, and one service grew by more than 8%, the others would have to have grown less than 8%. Game Pass being one of the biggest subscriptions in the U.S. market would have the higher impact on the sector %.
That was because other consoles were down YoY. That's what I'm saying.
In your case, we will have to assume that other subscription revenue decreased. But we don't have any evidence of that. For all we know, other subscriptions revenue increased as well, and Game Pass isn't solely responsible for the 8% growth in subscription revenue.
Feel free to drop the convo if you feel like we started moving in circle
Burger King
Member
It's incredible how Microsoft's gaming division is screwed with no good prospects and after all it has spent in the last few years.
Console market - lost to Nintendo and Sony
PC market - outclassed by Steam in their OS
Mobile - missed the boat
If I were them, I would look for a buyer for the gaming division before everything falls apart.
Console market - lost to Nintendo and Sony
PC market - outclassed by Steam in their OS
Mobile - missed the boat
If I were them, I would look for a buyer for the gaming division before everything falls apart.
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Basically both of you used the missing pieces of data to push things in the direction you wanted it to go but the real answer is most likely somewhere in between lolOne of us is completely missing something here
I think that's what the data is. It's the same thing.
Increasing the price would increase the revenue coming from it proportionately. If there is disproportionate increase, then it means the numbers of subscribers changed.
In this case, it seems like they decreased.
Unless I'm missing something, I don't think that would be true. If the sector grew by 8%, and one service grew by more than 8%, the others would have to have grown less than 8%. Game Pass being one of the biggest subscriptions in the U.S. market would have the higher impact on the sector %.
That was because other consoles were down YoY. That's what I'm saying.
In your case, we will have to assume that other subscription revenue decreased. But we don't have any evidence of that. For all we know, other subscriptions revenue increased as well, and Game Pass isn't solely responsible for the 8% growth in subscription revenue.
Feel free to drop the convo if you feel like we started moving in circle
KungFucius
King Snowflake
Do we really know PS5 had actual YoY platform growth? When you take out the Pro, it is 989k units which means 73k of the Pro would need to directly increase the number of PS5 users by either those Pro buyers selling their base model to someone without a PS5 or them buying a PS5 Pro for the first time they bought a PS5. That is about 31% of PS5 Pros. Seems feasible, but regardless the net gain YoY in the platform owners is probably not that much.
KungFucius
King Snowflake
Indy and Stalker. All available on PC where I like to game. Indy is giving Astrobot a run for my money when it comes to my Goty. Astrobot gets the edge though because it was cool to watch my kids play it. Though neither want to touch the Xmas level.
jm89
Member
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Astray
Member
Xbox is fucked as a brand. They had something with 360 but then fucked up so bad with the Xbone that plenty of people already tied to their ecosystem walked away (myself included). Why would you pick them over Sony going forward?
Unless they make their acquired stuff exclusive which they said they wont.
Unless they make their acquired stuff exclusive which they said they wont.
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Conjunction Junction, what's your function?
TheGodfather07
Member
I was talking worldwide. Which is very likely going to be less than 4m. I expect Microsoft will end production soon or maybe have done so already.
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TheGodfather07
Member
Unknown?
Member
Useless speculation. We don't know how many Pros are new prospective owners whom decided now was the time to get one but wanted the best PS5 available.
Likewise, most people who upgrade consoles end up selling their previous units which go to another owner. If not, they have two consoles but there were already people who bought two regular PS5s or more as well so it's a moot point because double owners are a constant even when no new model launches.
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Astray
Member
Ronin_7
Member
Luminoth-4545
Member
December has always been the biggest month, hardware sales are usually 1.5 to 2 times higher than November.
XXL
Member
DeepEnigma
Gold Member
Woopah
Member
I love sales discussions so happy to continue! Apologies for the long message.One of us is completely missing something here
I think that's what the data is. It's the same thing.
Increasing the price would increase the revenue coming from it proportionately. If there is disproportionate increase, then it means the numbers of subscribers changed.
In this case, it seems like they decreased.
Unless I'm missing something, I don't think that would be true. If the sector grew by 8%, and one service grew by more than 8%, the others would have to have grown less than 8%. Game Pass being one of the biggest subscriptions in the U.S. market would have the higher impact on the sector %.
That was because other consoles were down YoY. That's what I'm saying.
In your case, we will have to assume that other subscription revenue decreased. But we don't have any evidence of that. For all we know, other subscriptions revenue increased as well, and Game Pass isn't solely responsible for the 8% growth in subscription revenue.
Feel free to drop the convo if you feel like we started moving in circle
I'll use a different set of numbers (YoY hardware in March 2020) to explain the maths:
Sector growth: 56%
Switch: Over 100%
PS4: 25-30%
Xbox One: 25-30%
As we can see, Switch was the "primary driver" of that 56% sector growth, even though the other hardware grew too. But that doesn't mean Switch itself grew 56%. It was more than that.
Likewise Gamepass was the primary driver of the 8% sector growth. But that doesn't mean Gamepass itself grew 8%. It can be much higher than 8. For example, maybe the other sub services grew 2-3%, while Gamepass grew 25%.
Now it could be that Gamepass growth was 16% and it all came from the price increase.
But the Circana report specifically says "The release of Call of Duty: Black Ops 6 as part of Xbox Game Pass was again the primary growth driver".
They have the market research and have revenue figures for Gamepass. So they'd be able to see if the YoY Gamepass revenue growth was noticeably higher post-COD than it was before.
If Gamepass growth was the same in Oct/Nov as it was in September, it wouldn't be logical to attribute the growth to COD.
Does what I say make sense?
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mayham2199
Member
They are two far a long most likely so they probably will just follow through with it.
That's a shame. He was working so hard to make "freegunners" a thing.
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Joel Was Right
Member
Is anyone talking about how kids these days much prefer Roblox and Fornite over these IPs? At some point these console sales are just going to crash and never recover, because I get the feeling they are still selling it to the original audience that played the PS2 in their early teens. That same generation is now nearing their 40s, with less time to play.
Woopah
Member
Its a massive potential issue for the industry (unless you are Roblox or Fortnite) and this is one of the reasons so many publishers are chasing GAAS.
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mayham2199
Member
Yes it's been a discussion. I think the main issue is does anyone really believe a kid is going to play the same game for for 20+ years? My son has access to my PS5 and he plays all kinds of games. He just beat Spiderman 2. Now he's playing Rachet and Clank rift apart. Before that he was playing Fall Guys nonstop, then minecraft Dungeons, stumble guys. Astro Bot playroom. He wanted a switch for xmas and I told him no. So that's one sell lost to Nintendo because of me not because of my son. You see what you are calling "prefer" might be more of a "no other option" situation.
It's hard to predict what will happen to an industry when your main data point is what a child is doing. Kids grow up, change, and their habits/wants/needs change. More importantly kids don't have full decision making. You have to understand kids are largely beholden to doing what their parents will pay for/allow them to do. If a kids parents wont buy them a PS5 but will let them play on their cheap work laptop then yea they'll most likely download roblox/fortnite and that's it. This is why I believe kids game on mobile so much because parents can justify spending so much for a phone but not for a device just used for gaming. Similar to PC as well. Parents can justify the cost of needing a PC.
My cousins son only played on his phone for a very long time because that's all he could get from his parents. Now he only plays on the PS5 Rainbow Six Siege and Warzone. He also beat Elden Ring recently. I think it's a bad move to start making business decisions on what kids are doing.
mckmas8808
Mckmaster uses MasterCard to buy Slave drives
I think I was thinking 6 million. But anybody that said below 5 million, I thought was smoking crack. BOY WAS I WRONG!
mckmas8808
Mckmaster uses MasterCard to buy Slave drives
Most people do NOT think kids age 6-12 won't try other games though. No way they only play Roblox for 20 years.
Klayzer
Member
I was thinking between 7-10 million, no way did i think it was possible for a sub 5 million for the Series S/X.I think I was thinking 6 million. But anybody that said below 5 million, I thought was smoking crack. BOY WAS I WRONG!
These hardware numbers are terrible for Microsoft. Anyone trying to sell you on "Microsoft no longer cares about sales" pitch is full of bs.