The Innocent X
Banned
tinfoilhatman said:
Definitively? No-one can.
A Sense of community via live + capturing the hardcore crowd definitely help.
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NPD Sales Results for October 2007
- Thread starter sonycowboy
- Start date
Definitively? No-one can.
A Sense of community via live + capturing the hardcore crowd definitely help.
borghe said:missing something
I was referring to actual LTD. Not outpacing.. 360 will continue to have the largest userbase in the US for the foreseeable future. Wii will eventually eclipse it WITHIN this generation if it continues to outsell it, but it won't happen anytime in the next few months. It could happen this holiday except that Nintendo likely won't be able to get that many units on shelves to do so.
Shipment numbers versus production numbers says they have 4 million back stock and can produce another 3.6 million in nov and dec.... for a grand total of 7.6 million systems shipped worldwide in nov+dec. Prepare to see Wii eclipse the 360 userbase in europe AND in the US by the end of december. Also prepare for the Wii to eclipse PS3+360 worldwide by march.
tinfoilhatman
all of my posts are my avatar
The Innocent X said:
Thats pretty funny I remember when MS started pushing live and made all the annoucements.
I guess teh 2 billion they spend on Live infrastruste wasn't a total waste afterall?
Beer Monkey
Member
gcfan2k5 said:
:lol
Psychotext
Member
I actually queued on launch night to pick up three of them (for friends and family). First and last time I ever do that, but a fun experience.Slavik81 said:
Suburban Cowboy said:
I don't know about getting data for the same amount of time, but here's the NPD data for each of those games based off of just their first NPD appearance (I did both August and September for Lair since it only had 3 days for the August NPD):
Motorstorm
Days accounted for by March NPD: 32 days
First NPD sales count: 199,000
Heavenly Sword
Days accounted for by September NPD: 24 days
First NPD sales count: 139,000
Lair
Days accounted for by August (3 days) and September (35 days) NPD: 38 days
First NPD sales count: 46,500 + 57,800 = 104,300
All taken from past NPD threads.
Beer Monkey
Member
gcfan2k5 said:
Yeah, I do think it's funny that you think that Wii will sell a couple million more than 360 in NA in Nov/Dec. Forget about how much they really have stockpiled, forget the fact that half of what they produce in these two months won't make it in US shores, the sales you are predicting is not happening. Even Nintendo said to expect 'double' the supply this holiday; even if they double their Nov/Dec 2006 numbers, that still wouldn't be enough for them to pass 360 in NA this year.
ZombieSupaStar
Member
meh I wish 360 did alot better.
oh well mario galaxy is fun, and mass effect next week!
oh well mario galaxy is fun, and mass effect next week!
perfectchaos007
Member
These next 2 months of NPD's are going to be stellar. However, if Nintendo doesn't get enough Wii's out there to satisfy demand, then we may see PS3 and 360 get sales closer to the Wii for a couple reasons:
1. Sales go up at the holliday season because demand goes up. Wii right now is supply constrained, and if Nintendo can't increase their supply then sales can't go up. PS3 and 360 currently are stocked in stores and currently keep up with demand easily, so their job is easy and sales will rise naturally during the holidays.
2. If parents can't find a Wii this holiday, they will get their kids another console. Cost is not an issue since the "Arcade" 360 is only $20 more. and PS3 is now $399.
1. Sales go up at the holliday season because demand goes up. Wii right now is supply constrained, and if Nintendo can't increase their supply then sales can't go up. PS3 and 360 currently are stocked in stores and currently keep up with demand easily, so their job is easy and sales will rise naturally during the holidays.
2. If parents can't find a Wii this holiday, they will get their kids another console. Cost is not an issue since the "Arcade" 360 is only $20 more. and PS3 is now $399.
beermonkey@tehbias said:
If european shipments remain relatively the same as they have been, then yes they can sell a couple million more than 360 this nov+dec. 4 million systems + an additional 1 million systems, total of ~5 million NOV+DEC in the US. The rest of the back stock will go to europe, since japan already has a few hundred thousand units left on shelves (provided japanese sales remain relatively low, compared to europe and the US).
Nintendo will have to hamstring japan to do it, but even doing so they will sell the most there this holiday. Doing this would benefit Nintendo, because they will gain serious support from western third parties. Its entirely possible.
360 is looking at 800k NOV and 1.5m DEC at BEST. PS3 is looking at 300k NOV and 600k DEC at BEST. Wii is looking at 1.5m NOV and 3m+ dec.
You are crazy if you think Nintendo, given the chance, will pass up breaking the all time November AND all time December sales records in the US this holoiday. (PS2 holds both of those records i think, at 1.3 million NOV and 2.7 million DEC for its best NOV and DEC in 2002.)
Version 3.0
Member
beermonkey@tehbias said:
It's not impossible, but it's somewhat unlikely. If the 360 does the same as last year, and the Wii does as well as the PS2's best Nov/Dec (2002 was 1.3m/2.6m), then the Wii will pass the 360.
But a more likely scenario would be for the 360 to do better than last year (Halo won't wear off before Christmas), and the Wii to do more like the PS2's second Christmas (900k/1.9m), or a bit better (as it's been trending, though still supply-constrained), and come up still a million or so shy of the 360.
But it's possible that Nintendo has the units--Japan can spare some at the moment, and there's still no way to gauge demand here. If so, the Wii could break the PS2's 2002 record Nov and Dec. It's already broken two or three of the PS2's record months this year. The Wii and 360 could end up very close come January.
Gary Whitta
Member
This is the problem when you look at the exclusive first-party mega-titles for each system this year.DeaconKnowledge said:
Halo: MASS AWARENESS
Mario: MASS AWARENESS
Uncharted: WHAT'S THAT?
Sony needs a new savior IP, IMO.
Gary Whitta
Member
I buy half of it. It's not a huge jump from the Wii to the 360 Arcade ($30, not $20), but the PS3 is $150 more than the Wii and that IS a sticking point, that's a huge price jump and a lot of people won't be willing to make it, especially given the negative buzz surrounding the PS3 right now.Grecco said:
titiklabingapat
Member
Reports are already trickling in that MASSIVE amounts of Wiis are being shipped this month. Unprecedented levels. Doesn't mean it will do 3M in December but it's likely. But of course, we don't know for sure. November will be a nice indication.beermonkey@tehbias said:
Nintendo said double the supply at least.
Some Toys r us are seeing a 400% increase and Ani's store is seeing at least double the usual amount already.
Gary Whitta
Member
I agree, the question is what happens if ALL the stores are sold out, just as they have been every month since launch. Buy another console, or something else entirely?Grecco said:
Agent Icebeezy
Welcome beautful toddler, Madison Elizabeth, to the horde!
I expect 800k for November, and 2 million for December, that is the honest true.
Version 3.0
Member
Gary Whitta said:
I don't think people see the 360 as a substitute for Wii. They might go for a DS, but outside of that, I think they'd head for another product, maybe some new thing that's hot this year.
Gary Whitta said:
From my experiences from last years holidays: People that couldn't find a Wii for little Jimmy opted for a gift card with the exact Wii amount as an IOU/ITTGYAW (I Tried To Get You A Wii) card.
I have a feeling this year will be a bit different. We have been getting Wii shipments more often since the end of September. But I feel there may still be some difficulty in finding one as shipments still sell out (in days rather than hours now).
From an economic perspective all outcomes are plausible and likely. Some segments will choose to buy a substitue (360,DS,PSP,PS3) another segment will choose to wait and yet another will buy something else entirely.
It all depends on how many units Nintendo ships and has stockpiled and we know they've stockpile at least some of their production since June. Throwing a random educated guess, a 3 million November/December for Wii is likely.
It all depends on how many units Nintendo ships and has stockpiled and we know they've stockpile at least some of their production since June. Throwing a random educated guess, a 3 million November/December for Wii is likely.
AniHawk said:
What Sony needs is a Chrono game on the PS3. Instant sales.
Hell they need any RPG. The FPS market right now is just too convoluted. People usually won't detach from their favorite. With Halo, Half-life, COD, Crysis, and all the other gun fests out lately its simply too much. Add in UT, Turok, and whatever else is coming. Bleh, good luck.
The RPG market on the other hand has been pretty bare for awhile. A resurrected franchise would score big time imo.
Chances of this happening: Buy a lotto ticket.
Version 3.0
Member
The Wii's had a hell of a year, amazing to think it's been sold out the whole time. Looking at past records, the PS2 is, of course, the one to beat. The Wii's managed that twice this year, and come close a few other times:
So the question is, how close can it come in November and December? The PS2 has some monstrous records for those months, and some very high second-best numbers as well:
I think the Wii will break these 2nd place records, but I'm pretty doubtful about it breaking those 1st ones, particularly November, because it's already the 16th and I don't think Nintendo's ramped up shipment quite that much yet.
Code:
PS2 Wii
Jan 490,000 435,503
Feb 537,904 335,000
Mar 547,000 259,000
Apr 332,000 360,000
May 464,000 338,278
Jun 690,000 381,800
Jul 436,000 425,000
Aug 452,412 403,600
Sep 531,751 501,000
Oct 516,622 519,000So the question is, how close can it come in November and December? The PS2 has some monstrous records for those months, and some very high second-best numbers as well:
Code:
Nov 1,284,000
Dec 2,686,000
Nov 909,000
Dec 1,947,000I think the Wii will break these 2nd place records, but I'm pretty doubtful about it breaking those 1st ones, particularly November, because it's already the 16th and I don't think Nintendo's ramped up shipment quite that much yet.
SecretDestroyer
Banned
What did the DS do last November and December?
Gary Whitta said:
The answer is don't wait till the last minute and you can get one. You wait till Dec. 20th and you're gonna be screwed. But if you keep your eyes open, you can get one before Christmas (assuming ebay prices don't skyrocket and the sales people buy all stock before it hits shelves.)
My two sisters have both recently bought one for my nephews (Christmas.) They're not that difficult to get if you're not on some strict schedule. Nintendo, after all, is shipping lots of units. There's huge demand, but there's also huge supply.
dammitmattt said:
Dude. Ratchet didn't come out everywhere until the 30th. Even then, the only people who even knew about it and could get it before that were people on message boards. I would guarantee the vast majority of that 74,000 was sold in the last 4 days of the NPD month after the official release date.
It's the same thing with Uncharted. Nobody knows it's out today and I called my 2 local gamestops and one doesn't even have them in yet. Wal-Mart, Target and BB don't have or aren't selling it either.
These unofficial early releases may screw up the certainty of saying a game sold XXXX copies in X days but that certainly doesn't mean that Uncharted is or Ratchet was anywhere close to being widely available in that early interim period.
DeaconKnowledge
Member
tinfoilhatman said:
The people that the XBOX brand sells to. 18-34 year olds with a shitload of disposable income.
dammitmattt
Banned
tanod said:
Not true. Ratchet was widely available around 10/24. And I got my copy of Uncharted today, but it won't be widely available until early next week, which is still in time for Black Friday, which is all that matters.
I'm the biggest Ratchet PS3 fan around, but there is no getting around that the sales were EXTREMELY disappointing.
AdmiralViscen
Banned
gcfan2k5 said:
I really really doubt Wii is surpassing 360 in the US this fall. 360 is probably going to sell 2 million units in Nov/Dec, Wii would have to sell over 4 million in the same time period.
PS3 should have shipped 11 million by march, 360 something close to 15, with Wii shipping 25M, no? That will be interesting.
DeaconKnowledge
Member
Leondexter said:
Yeah, 3 million in one territory. I know it's obviously possible, but with the supply that Nintendo has been shipping I doubt it.
Gary Whitta
Member
And it's not first-party.FFChris said:
Gary Whitta said:
Ah yea, didn't read that bit. Still, it doesn't have to be first party to promote the system and sell systems. The FF series has always been PS exclusive, and it's seen in the market as a PS brand. I think it will do a lot when it comes out.
Then you have Gran Turismo. Though I'm a little uncertain about how much that stand out from the crowd now.
Version 3.0
Member
Jokeropia said:
Yes, those are the PS2's record months, ie. best Jan, best Feb. It's first year numbers are lower, and the Wii has, as of this month (its 12th), beaten the PS2's first 13 months by nearly 600k.
SecretDestroyer said:
918k in Nov, 1.6m in Dec.
Version 3.0
Member
FFChris said:
I don't think Final Fantasy has that kind of pull, not in the West. If GTA were still a timed exclusive, that would be the best shot they'd have, but without that, there's nothing I'd call a sure draw. Gran Turismo would be the closest.
The Playstation's power was never in a single franchise, nor even in a handful. Its strength was the diversity and quantity of its lineup, and the Sony name which made it seem less like a toy.
Hoo boy. Finally caught up with this thread.
Thanks to the NPD group for the numbers and to the usual subjects for charts, perspective and other assorted info.
Now if all those Wii owners proceed to buy some Endless Ocean come next year I'll be happy.
That, and please keep buying Metroid Prime 3. Both are good games (although polar opposites) and deserve good sales. Oh, and... please buy some Zack&Wiki. The game seems to have bombed quite spectacularly, which makes me very sad.
PGR and R&C get my heartfelt condolences. I may not like the genre or own the system but I know a good game when I see it (and PGRs' trailer was all kinds of awesome).
I gotta say I hate the fact that games I like tend to fail on the market. Why is that?
Reality is such a harsh mistress.
Thanks to the NPD group for the numbers and to the usual subjects for charts, perspective and other assorted info.
Now if all those Wii owners proceed to buy some Endless Ocean come next year I'll be happy.
That, and please keep buying Metroid Prime 3. Both are good games (although polar opposites) and deserve good sales. Oh, and... please buy some Zack&Wiki. The game seems to have bombed quite spectacularly, which makes me very sad.
Dagnabbit what's wrong with you people!
PGR and R&C get my heartfelt condolences. I may not like the genre or own the system but I know a good game when I see it (and PGRs' trailer was all kinds of awesome).
I gotta say I hate the fact that games I like tend to fail on the market. Why is that?
Don't answer pls kthx.
DeaconKnowledge
Member
Leondexter said:
BAM.
The Playstation line was the "It has everything you want" line. Final Fantasy alone ain't gonna cut it. GT alone ain't gonna cut it. Again, steady stream of games. That's what the PS1 and PS2 had, and the PS3 currently lacks.