Seasonal and SE bundles are limited, usually just around a million units max afaik. I think estimating 1.5x on both Kinect and Wii is a bit too generous too, 1.25x is probably closer to the truth. Either way though the Wii bundled figure is orders of magnitude larger than 360. Wii Sports bundled alone is going to outpace 360's overall bundled figure.
Do you have a link? But yeah I wouldn't say 360 bundled SW is more than 40m. Still though 360 will sell roughly 20m+ unbundled SW more than Wii this holiday, the overall gap will be within spitting distance by 2013.