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Official January NPD 2007 Prediction Thread

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9

909er

Member
doicare said:
Why not?
Click to expand...

High cost + no games

Xbox 360 - 310,000
Wii - 400,000
PS3 - 150,000
PS2 - 270,000
PSP - 130,000
DS - 350,000


are my guesses, based on absolutely nothing logical nor credible.
 
G

Greenpanda

Banned
OK, I'm still just taking wild stabs in the dark here, but:

NDS 410k
PS2 375k
Wii 350k
360 330k
PSP 300k
PS3 220k
GBA 155k
 
L

lix2k3

Member
The Wii is hot right now but I don't know if that will reflect in the numbers. Somethings telling me it won't. 360 will bomba due to those crazy holiday bundle season being over. Ps3 will do no better. The DS will do what the DS does and PSP will continue to struggle. And, I can't say anything else about the people buying PS2's...I think they will keep on until every single American owns a PS2.

DS- 410K
PS2- 220K
360- 195K
Wii- 180K
PS3- 155K
PSP- 135K
GBA- 110K
 
S

Square2005

Banned
My new Jan. Predictions
PS2 - 246,000
XB360 - 236,446
NDS - 196,633
PSP - 171,000
PS3 - 154,000
Wii - 143,544*
GBA - 125,000

*NM I didn't realize Perrin was refering to 'the Americas'.
 
H

Hairyiguana

Member
Square2005 said:
My new Jan. Predictions
PS2 - 246,000
XB360 - 236,446
NDS - 196,633
PSP - 171,000
PS3 - 154,000
Wii - 129,779*
GBA - 125,000

*Perrin Kaplan just now confirmed Wii Zelda broke a million! All it had to do was sell 69k more after December and it's just now (over a month later) reached a million! Thus Wii sales can;t be much higher than 69k b/c it's selling nearly 1:1...! Definitely not 200k or higher as many are predicting...
Click to expand...

Its a good thing you bolded that, I was worried I was going to miss your predictions.

Also, an exclamation point is not the same thing as a period.
 
O

oldie-newbie

Member
Square2005 said:
*Perrin Kaplan just now confirmed Wii Zelda broke a million! All it had to do was sell 69k more after December and it's just now (over a month later) reached a million! Thus Wii sales can;t be much higher than 69k b/c it's selling nearly 1:1...! Definitely not 200k or higher as many are predicting...
Click to expand...

From IGN :
http://wii.ign.com/articles/763/763003p1.html

Perrin Kaplan, said that The Legend of Zelda: Twilight Princess has sold more than one million copies "in the Americas alone".

Two questions : When "has sold" and How higher is "more" ?
 
J

JoshuaJSlone

Member
oldie-newbie said:
From IGN :
http://wii.ign.com/articles/763/763003p1.html

Perrin Kaplan, said that The Legend of Zelda: Twilight Princess has sold more than one million copies "in the Americas alone".
Click to expand...
What? You mean the story didn't go
Perrin Kaplan just called us in a huff, exclaiming that The Legend of Zelda: Twilight Princess for Wii had finally dragged over the million mark just now. This was the only thing discussed.
Click to expand...
? Instead, it was one topic of many that came up in an interview conducted Thursday?
 
O

oldie-newbie

Member
I think that Wii numbers are underestimated. In Japan, for the same period (jan 01-feb 4) 524 928 Wii versus 155 303 PS3 were sold (MC numbers).

The question is how many Wii Nintendo can produce before 31 mars 2007?
They plan to ship 6 millions before 31 mars 2007 or even 7 millions (I read a new on it but don't know if it is from Nintendo source). Remember also that there are 0,81 million Wii in stand-by at the end of 2006 (4 millions - 3,19 millions sold worldwide).

Depending on Nintendo's strategy and Nintendo's capacity production there are between 2,81 and 3,81 millions Wii to be shipped before 31 mars 2007.
If we consider :
- 3 regions (USA, Japan and Europe),
- 13 weeks between january 1st and march 31st,
- all regions have the same amount of Wii,
- and that 0,81 million(from 2006) will be shipped during all this 3 months

=> the number of Wii per week could be between 72 051 and 97 692, so the NPD number for january would be between 360 255 and 488 460.

But I think that Nintendo have already shipped the 0,81 million of Wii from 2006. So if we consider :
- the 0,81 million were already shipped,
- the USA have got 0,40 million (and 0,20 million for each other region)
- the new calculated number of Wii per week is between 51 282 and 76 923

=> the NPD number would be between 656 410 and 784 615.
 
J

JoshuaJSlone

Member
oldie-newbie said:
I didn't see anywhere the original interview...
Click to expand...
They don't provide a link, so maybe it's yet to come... or they prefer to just use it for news bits like this.
IGN Wii said:
In an interview with IGN Wii on Thursday, NOA's VP of marketing and corporate affairs, Perrin Kaplan, said
Click to expand...
and so on
 
J

jj984jj

He's a pretty swell guy in my books anyway.
It was pointed out before but, Perrin clearly says "the Americas" in her interview and Zelda:TP on Wii sold over 900K by the end of 2006, so she could be referring to total sales in NA up to that point and not even be considering January. If Nintendo managed to ship 500K consoles to Japan during January then I'm sure they didn't only ship a measly 150K to the US for the month.
 
B

B E N K E

Member
The Wii numbers will be really interesting... Is it really high demand or has Nintendo been undershipping? My guess is a little from column A and a little from column B.

Here's my numbers:

Wii 360,000
Xbox 360 210,000
PS3 240,000
PS2 210,000
PSP 150,000
DS 325,000
GBA 140,000
 
C

Cosmozone

Member
oldie-newbie said:
If we consider :
- 3 regions (USA, Japan and Europe)
Click to expand...
Herein lies the problem. It's a worldwide launch, so you're not taking Canada, South America, Australia, New Zealand etc. into consideration. As good as that might be for the people around the world, the main regions end up getting less consoles. There are still shortages in the US and in Europe. For some reason they ended in Germany about a week ago. But Wii is still hard to get in France and UK.

I'm expecting about 300.000 or less for January NPD. Hard to say when shortages will end. March/April? I'm pretty sure Nintendo unterestimated demand from the start.
 
M

maynerd

Banned
donny2112 said:
.
Click to expand...

Oops I read the other thread and I don't think it said 02/15 I thought it said thursday or friday of this week. I didn't bother to read the OP of this thread since I thought it was the same info. Sorry about that.
 
O

Orgen

Member
NDS - 432.000
PSP - 198.000
GBA - 172.000

Wii - 346.000
360 - 291.000
PS2 - 247.000
PS3 - 233.000

GC - 40.000
Xbox - 5.000
 
G

GhaleonEB

Member
Nintendo DS 225
PS2 238
GBA 138
Xbox 360 288
Wii 413
PSP 213
PS3 313

All estimates in thousands.

I just took my guesses from the last thread and multiplied by 1.25 for the extra week. The more I look at them the more I second guess - this is actually harder than December. In December we had a rough idea what constraints were for the new systems - now anything goes.
 
J

jon61586

Member
Cosmozone said:
Herein lies the problem. It's a worldwide launch, so you're not taking Canada, South America, Australia, New Zealand etc. into consideration. As good as that might be for the people around the world, the main regions end up getting less consoles. There are still shortages in the US and in Europe. For some reason they ended in Germany about a week ago. But Wii is still hard to get in France and UK.

I'm expecting about 300.000 or less for January NPD. Hard to say when shortages will end. March/April? I'm pretty sure Nintendo unterestimated demand from the start.
Click to expand...


Canada is included in all NA releases.
 
O

oldie-newbie

Member
Cosmozone said:
Herein lies the problem. It's a worldwide launch, so you're not taking Canada, South America, Australia, New Zealand etc. into consideration. As good as that might be for the people around the world, the main regions end up getting less consoles. There are still shortages in the US and in Europe. For some reason they ended in Germany about a week ago. But Wii is still hard to get in France and UK.

I'm expecting about 300.000 or less for January NPD. Hard to say when shortages will end. March/April? I'm pretty sure Nintendo unterestimated demand from the start.
Click to expand...

Dividing the world into three regions is just a simplification. We can think that Japan + North America + Europe shared 90% of the production.
Remember that there are 810 000 Wii (4 million - 3,19 million) made in 2006 to be shipped in january + january production (shipped before february).
You are expecting 300 000 or less for january NPD. But if you add 300 000 + 524 928 (Japan) = 824 928 Wii equivalent to the number of Wii available in the beginning of january (from 2006 production). How many units Nintendo have produced and shipped in january and where? that is the question...
 
G

GhaleonEB

Member
Jammy said:
http://www.gamasutra.com/php-bin/news_index.php?story=12724
Click to expand...
Finally, he adds, "Should sales of PS3 and Wii hardware exceed our forecast, there may be upside to our estimates. In addition, should tie ratios on the next generation consoles be greater than the 1.5 units we have modeled, January sell-through could be substantially above our forecast."
Click to expand...
I'm trying to read that in a way that's not entirely redundant and not finding one. Is that just me?
 
M

Mrbob

Member
500K prediction for the Wii?

Oh no are we gonna see another Pachter meltdown in two consecutive months??? ;)
 
M

Mifune

Mehmber
Mrbob said:
500K prediction for the Wii?

Oh no are we gonna see another Pachter meltdown in two consecutive months??? ;)
Click to expand...

No doubt we are. 500K is absurdly optimistic considering the Wii supply last month.
 
K

KINGMOKU

Member
One has to ask themselves this question now;


Who are you going to believe?

Square with his crazy lowball prediction, or Patchers crazy high-end estimate?

You cant go in the middle either. You must choose. One man enter, blah, blah, blah.


I'm going with patcher.
 
J

JJConrad

Sucks at viral marketing
moku said:
One has to ask themselves this question now;


Who are you going to believe?

Square with his crazy lowball prediction, or Patchers crazy high-end estimate?

You cant go in the middle either. You must choose. One man enter, blah, blah, blah.


I'm going with patcher.
Click to expand...
Can't we throw them both to the lions?


I've been trying calculate what Patcher is predicting for 360, PSP and DS by removing his Wii and PS3 totals from the overall estimate. He looks to only be leaving about 175 million for between those systems, which is only about 27 million more that last year. DS growth should likely eat up all of that and then some... what were last January's numbers?

EDIT// I have a feeling that Patcher has found some new systems to greatly overestimate. I wonder what Sonycowboy is doing.

2nd EDIT// DAMNIT!! After running some numbers it looks like Patcher's 5-weeks prediction was only slightly higher than my 4-week predictions. Time to revise.
 
H

hadareud

The Translator
I stick with my original predictions:

360 - 240,000
wii - 235,000
ps3 - 205,000
ps2 - 245,000
gc - 20,000
xbox - 2,000

ds - 320,000
psp - 180,000
gba - 140,000
 
D

duderon

rollin' in the gutter
Clever Pun said:
edit: ^ :(

why not:

360 - 280k
ps3 - 240k
wii - 410k
ds - 480k
ps2 - 250k
gba - 190k
psp - 190k
gc - 30k
xbox - 2k
Click to expand...

You've got Pachter to use as a yardstick. Although that may mean more harm than good to your predictions :lol
 
A

Archie

Second-rate Anihawk
PS3 - 220,000
Wii - 320,000
360 - 255,000

DS - 275,000
PSP - 175,000
GBA - 150,000

PS2 - 260,000
GCN - 20,000
Xbox - 1,000
 
L

LOCK

Member
Either Pachter is over estimating or he knows how much was shipped to America. :/

Basically he's just pulling numbers out of his ass.
 
J

JJConrad

Sucks at viral marketing
I think I'm going to stick with my predictions from the first thread. Mainly due not wanting to make stuff up again. Maybe a few adjustments...


Wii - 400k
DS - 325k
PS3 - 300k
PS2 - 270k
360 - 220k
PSP - 175k
GBA - 160k
GCN - 25k
XBX - 1k
 
K

KINGMOKU

Member
PhoenixDark said:
DS - 350,000
PS2 - 190,000
Xbox 360 - 220,000
PS3 - 250,000
Wii - 400,000
PSP - 170,000
Click to expand...
Go back to your old avatar PD. That one is not working for you, AT ALL. It's so ****ing ugly it makes me want to punch you in the face.
 
D

duderon

rollin' in the gutter
donny2112 said:
These threads normally start with a Wedbush NPD preview. :\
Click to expand...

True and then we toot our own horns for making better predictions than him, using his predictions as a basis. A little hypocritical, no?

I say we start fresh for 07 :)
 
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