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[mariok]

HW

Wii 450k
DS 550k
PS2 300k
360 250k
PS3 300k
PSP 150k
GBA 200k

 

[bud]

I'm willing to bet my account on PS3 outselling 360.

 

[Wollan]

So how long until the numbers are released?

 

[pswii60]

I'm willing to bet my account on PS3 outselling 360.

Well it SHOULD, considering it's brand new and the huge Sony fanbase. But supply hasn't been consistent. While there are reports of some stores having MOUNTAINS of PS3s, places like Amazon have been constantly in and out of stock, and certain parts of the US have had trouble getting hold of them.

So, the inconsistent supply + price of PS3 could pose a problem. Also Lost Planet + Crackdown demo may have sold a few extra 360s. Who knows, eh?! Not Patcher, that's for sure.

 

[suaveric]

So how long until the numbers are released?

around six hours from now

 

[AirBrian]

My humble predictions:

WII 375K
NDS 350K
360 275K
PS2 275K
PS3 225K
PSP 200K
GBA 200K
GCN 25K
XBX 10K

 

[HyperionX]

Why are people predicting great Wii sales when supply has been garbage? Don't be surprised if it sells only as well as PS3/X360 and there's a significant chance of being outsold by both.

 

[Jokeropia]

Why are people predicting great Wii sales when supply has been garbage? Don't be surprised if it sells only as well as PS3/X360 and there's a significant chance of being outsold by both.

How do you know the supply has been garbage? That's right you don't. By all signs demand is as high in the US as it is in Japan, and Nintendo sold 525k Wiis in Japan during January despite the system being chronically sold out.

 

[GhaleonEB]

Why are people predicting great Wii sales when supply has been garbage? Don't be surprised if it sells only as well as PS3/X360 and there's a significant chance of being outsold by both.

Nintendo has said they are shipping in 100k per week, IIRC. Even if they miss that by a good chunk, with a five-week period they should see >300k sales, easy.

And wow at the account bet above. Probably safe, but not a guarantee by any stretch. 0_0

 

[tHa_vIlLaMaN]

Nintendo has said they are shipping in 100k per week, IIRC. Even if they miss that by a good chunk, with a five-week period they should see >300k sales, easy.

And wow at the account bet above. Probably safe, but not a guarantee by any stretch. 0_0

That's what makes it all-the-more exciting!

 

[HyperionX]

Nintendo has said they are shipping in 100k per week, IIRC. Even if they miss that by a good chunk, with a five-week period they should see >300k sales, easy.

And wow at the account bet above. Probably safe, but not a guarantee by any stretch. 0_0

There was exactly one confirmed shipment in all of January. Probably others existed, but these were middle-of-the-night small shipments. The PS3 is probably the only console that saw weekly shipments like you claim.

 

[maynerd]

So what time are we gonna see this data?

 

[bud]

Nintendo has said they are shipping in 100k per week, IIRC. Even if they miss that by a good chunk, with a five-week period they should see >300k sales, easy.

Sony said the same thing plus that they were selling 100k a week

...

 

[GhaleonEB]

There was exactly one confirmed shipment in all of January. Probably others existed, but these were middle-of-the-night small shipments. The PS3 is probably the only console that saw weekly shipments like you claim.

Well, it's all anecdotal at this point. I didn't trust Nintendo's shipment claim - I think they shipped well below their stated target and that's reflected in my prediction.

I put absolutely no stock (no pun intended) on GAF's anecdotal evidence, other than the fact that Wii is damn near impossible to find and the PS3 is pretty much everywhere. The numbers are going to be really interesting to see this month. I'm actually more interested in this month than December, since in that month we knew roughly what they were constrained to.

Will the 360 fall off a cliff? Did Nintendo come even close to their shipment claims? Sony has said they're doing ~100k per month, did they sell anywhere close to that? I honestly have no clue about any of it. This month could be a good indications to the first half of the year.

 

[dyls]

There was exactly one confirmed shipment in all of January. Probably others existed, but these were middle-of-the-night small shipments. The PS3 is probably the only console that saw weekly shipments like you claim.

Two that we know of. One covered BB, Target, EB/GS, CC, and TRU that went on sale on 1/14. The other for Walmart that went on sale 1/21.

The truth is, it's impossible to even guess the number. On one hand, the supply seemed to be next to nothing during most of January. On the other hand, supply seemed to be almost nothing for most of December as well, and 600,000+ Wii's were sold that month.

 

[Jokeropia]

Mine:

US: Sony, MS
Japan: Sony, MS
Europe: Sony, MS

Nintendo out of the console race.

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=5507624&postcount=87

Hmm, I smell an agenda.

 

[HyperionX]

Hmm, I smell an agenda.

I smell an ad hominem.

 

[HyperionX]

Two that we know of. One covered BB, Target, EB/GS, CC, and TRU that went on sale on 1/14. The other for Walmart that went on sale 1/21.

The truth is, it's impossible to even guess the number. On one hand, the supply seemed to be next to nothing during most of January. On the other hand, supply seemed to be almost nothing for most of December as well, and 600,000+ Wii's were sold that month.

That still sounds like 1 shipment, but across two weeks. Many of these stores wait until they have sufficient supplies before they let them be sold.

And December sales are different. Every time there was reports of Wiis in stock meant camping out for them due to the Christmas shopping frenzy. It would be truly remarkable if that can continue in January.

 

[Jokeropia]

Agenda is an insult now? Well if it's not an agenda and you really believe those predictions then I guess you're just really bad at predicting.

 

[The AnswerV]

So, when it comes out? around 5PM ET?

 

[GhaleonEB]

So, when it comes out? around 5PM ET?

The data is released when the market closes, at 4:30PM ET. NPD releases their public data about an hour later, going by the past couple of months.

 

[HyperionX]

Agenda is an insult now? Well if it's not an agenda and you really believe those predictions then I guess you're just really bad at predicting.

1) You don't know what ad hominem means.

2) I didn't know it was 2012 already.

 

[Jokeropia]

For the record, I have no idea how many units Nintendo shipped, but you cannot derive that there were no shipments based on the difficulty of finding one since it's the same deal in Japan where 525k Wiis were sold in January.

 

[HyperionX]

For the record, I have no idea how many units Nintendo shipped, but you cannot derive that there were no shipments based on the difficulty of finding one since it's the same deal in Japan where 525k Wiis were sold in January.

I based it off of reports of shipments, which were very rare. Japan actually got weekly shipments.

 

[dyls]

At this point, I'm expecting pretty meh numbers this month. Almost everything will probably fall in the 250K-350K range, disappointing everyone for 4 pages, followed by a bunch of "February and March will be the real telling months."

I'm hoping for fireworks, but expecting sparklers.

 

[Jokeropia]

1) You don't know what ad hominem means.

Yes I do. If the post I brought up had been irrelevant to this discussion it qualifies as ad-hominem. However, whether it's a sign of bias against Nintendo or just really bad predicting I argue that it's very relevant.

2) I didn't know it was 2012 already.

So you honestly believe that not only will PS3 have an unprecedented comeback in Japan, but the X360 will have a comeback that makes the beforementioned seem petty? And this will make the Wii bomb so hard that it actually fails to generate a profit for Nintendo. (How that is even theoretically possible I have no idea.)

Yeah I think my agenda comment was quite warranted.

 

[HyperionX]

Yes I do. If the post I brought up had been irrelevant to this discussion it qualifies as ad-hominem. However, whether it's a sign of bias against Nintendo or just really bad predicting I argue that it's very relevant.

Get a dictionary. You really don't know what "ad hominem" actually stands for.

So you honestly believe that not only will PS3 have an unprecedented comeback in Japan, but the X360 will have a comeback that makes the beforementioned seem petty? And this will make the Wii bomb so hard that it actually fails to generate a profit for Nintendo. (How that is even theoretically possible I have no idea.)

Yeah I think my agenda comment was quite warranted.

So are you saying you have a crystal ball? My predictions are as credible as yours.

EDIT: When I say something has been canceled, it automatically defaults to last. Wouldn't be surprised if lifetime shipments of Wii in Japan exceed X360 though.

 

[ilbambino]

Well it SHOULD, considering it's brand new and the huge Sony fanbase. But supply hasn't been consistent. While there are reports of some stores having MOUNTAINS of PS3s, places like Amazon have been constantly in and out of stock, and certain parts of the US have had trouble getting hold of them.

So, the inconsistent supply + price of PS3 could pose a problem. Also Lost Planet + Crackdown demo may have sold a few extra 360s. Who knows, eh?! Not Patcher, that's for sure.

Sony shipped 1M PS3s by year's end , So doing some calculations using NPD numbers for the months of November and December it leaves around 300K unsold PS3s. They also claimed to be shipping 100K PS3s a week to America , so that should increase the count to 800K units that could have been potentially bought. Also a lot of PS3s were available for purchase on Dec 31 , a day after NPD's last day taken into consideration for December numbers.

The best January for the Xbox Brand was 249K , made last year by the 360 , followed closely by the original Xbox 05 January with 242K. So assuming the console has a performance similar to those with no Halo , higher pricepoint and no "Just launched" boost it would get around 300K units (Taking into consideration the 5-weeks).

Those are my 2 cents , If that doesn't happens i would say the PS3 is as doomed as my GAF account

Edit: Sorry about my English

 

[Jokeropia]

Get a dictionary. You really don't know what "ad hominem" actually stands for.

Yes I do. It's an unwarranted discreditation of the person instead of the argument. Like I said above however, I'd argue that the discreditation was warranted.

So are you saying you have a crystal ball? My predictions are as credible as yours.

Sorry, but no they're not. That's like me saying I predict 2,000,000 Wiis for January NPD and saying it's as credible as anyone else's. Or 250 million Wiis sold lifetime total. Your above prediction for this month's NPD (Wii may sell equal to or less than PS3/X360) might be as credible as anyone else's, but suggesting that Wii is likely to bomb and lose to X360 in Japan is a pipe dream.

Out of curiosity, do you also believe PSP is bound to make a comeback against the DS?

 

[gollumsluvslave]

Based on the extra week and what i said in the previous predictions thread:-

360 246k
PS3 286k
Wii 342k

 

[Link]

So are you saying you have a crystal ball? My predictions are as credible as yours.

Get a dictionary. You really don't know what "credible" actually stands for.

 

[Alcibiades]

Wii 550,000
PS3 300,000
360 300,000

DS 500,000
GBA 300,000
PSP 225,000

GCN 25,000

 

[Forgotten Ancient]

Is this what NPD predictions have regerssed to? Ad hominem attacks about people not knowing what ad hominems are? :lol

 

[maynerd]

Will there be a new thread for the NPD actual data or will the OP be edited?

 

[Forgotten Ancient]

Will there be a new thread for the NPD actual data or will the OP be edited?

I'm pretty sure there'll be a new thread. Doesn't SonyCowboy usually post them?

 

[GhaleonEB]

I'm pretty sure there'll be a new thread. Doesn't SonyCowboy usually post them?

I think that's the process going forward. NPD includes sonycowboy (or someone from GAF administration) on the media alert, and he posts the official thread. It was outlined when the new NPD rules were decided a couple months back.

 

[seattle6418]

revised predictions:

wii - 380k
ps3 - 320k
xbox360 - 230k

ps2 - 400k
gc - 15k
xbox- 3k

ds - 550k
psp - 280k
gba - 370k

 

[bunkum]

 

[djtiesto]

I'll take a go at it:


NDS 360K
WII 330K
360 320K
PSP 280K
PS2 275K
PS3 250K
GBA 240K
GCN 25K
XBX 10K

 

[duderon]

 

[sonycowboy]

Bunk,

I'm hearing potentially no NPD until Tuesday. You heard anything?

 

[bunkum]

Not checked, will make a phone call

 

[duderon]

Bunk,

I'm hearing potentially no NPD until Tuesday. You heard anything?

How do they manage to screw this up? They have so much time to tabulate everything. Whereas the Japanese have a week and it goes down flawlessly pretty much every week. We need another company to start tracking video game sales.

 

[VanMardigan]

Bunk,

I'm hearing potentially no NPD until Tuesday. You heard anything?

NNNNNNNNOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!

 

[methane47]

How do they manage to screw this up? They have so much time to tabulate everything. Whereas the Japanese have a week and it goes down flawlessly pretty much every week. We need another company to start tracking video game sales.

They have to gather information from Mom and Pops stores which takes longer than normal

 

[Mojovonio]

i'm going with.....


550k DS
200k PSP
350k Wii
250k PS3
250k 360

 

[duderon]

They have to gather information from Mom and Pops stores which takes longer than normal

I'm sure the Japanese trackers do the same.

 

[AlphaSnake]

I'll know that the numbers get posted when in the span of 4 minutes this thread goes from 4 pages, to 37.

 

[GhaleonEB]

How do they manage to screw this up? They have so much time to tabulate everything. Whereas the Japanese have a week and it goes down flawlessly pretty much every week. We need another company to start tracking video game sales.

There WAS another company - PC Data. NPD purchased them to eliminate the competition. For a while, PC Data was releasing weekly sales charts (sans numbers), and NPD started doing the same. Then NPD bought PC Data out, and *poof* the weekly charts disappeared. (I used to write for a gaming site when we got the charts.)

 

[Ghengis Cohen]

How do they manage to screw this up? They have so much time to tabulate everything. Whereas the Japanese have a week and it goes down flawlessly pretty much every week. We need another company to start tracking video game sales.

NPD tracks much, much, much more than video game sales.