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Official January NPD 2007 Prediction Thread

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Haunted

Haunted

Member
moku said:
Patcher
Click to expand...
JJConrad said:
Patcher
Click to expand...
Lorul2 said:
Patcher
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VietBitter said:
Patcher
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The guy's name is Michael Pachter. The least you could do in return for all his 'predicting' and ultimately entertaining GAF is get his name right. :p
I actually don't think he's that bad - for an analyst, that is.



Since a professional already gave his estimates, I won't post my predictions. Would be good for the industry if his high numbers were true, though, so I'll hope for that. :)
 
V

VietBitter

Banned
Haunted_One said:
Since a professional already gave his estimates, I won't post my predictions. Would be good for the industry if his high numbers were true, though, so I'll hope for that. :)
Click to expand...

Bu-bu-but mines even higher!
 
M

mylilbuddy

Banned
Haunted_One said:
The guy's name is Michael Pachter. The least you could do in return for all his 'predicting' and ultimately entertaining GAF is get his name right. :p
I actually don't think he's that bad - for an analyst, that is.



Since a professional already gave his estimates, I won't post my predictions. Would be good for the industry if his high numbers were true, though, so I'll hope for that. :)
Click to expand...


Will spell Patchers name correctly once he is correct. The guy has been so far off this past year he deserves all the flak he gets.
 
S

starship

psycho_snake's and The Black Brad Pitt's B*TCH
Prediction:

Wii - 483k
DS - 448k
PS3 - 321k
PS2 - 274k
X360 - 247k
PSP - 202k
GBA - 186k
GC - 32k
Xbox - 4k
 
L

Lapsed

Banned
The metric to measure the Next-Gen Systems against is the PS2 (not against each other). PS2 is still the top selling system monthly. Xbox 360 still hasn't surpassed the PS2 for over a year, and I highly doubt PS3 will soon.

But if Wii outsells PS2 in January... then this will be a very short console race. If not, then things get more interesting. :)
 
B

bunkum

Member
Now where was I before I was hit with the sonycowboy banning stick, my sister bought in January...................

Oh never mind, see if I can last the week without giving away more than NPD crumbs.
 
S

sonycowboy

Member
bunkum said:
Now where was I before I was hit with the sonycowboy banning stick, my sister bought in January...................

Oh never mind, see if I can last the week without giving away more than NPD crumbs.
Click to expand...

I hope you're around for a good long time. GAF owes you a great deal of gratitude and respect for your contributions over the years.
 
F

fanduck

Member
I still don't know how seriously we're supposed to take sites like vgcharts.com, but Nintendo released to them their sales from end of 2006, and it was 1.25M in US. And today it was updated to 1.71M. That's a net of 460K (I assume they're all from the month of Jan).

As a side note, DS went from 10.18 to 10.72 in the same period (540K).
 
D

duderon

rollin' in the gutter
fanduck said:
I still don't know how seriously we're supposed to take sites like vgcharts.com, but Nintendo released to them their sales from end of 2006, and it was 1.25M in US. And today it was updated to 1.71M. That's a net of 460K (I assume they're all from the month of Jan.)
Click to expand...

About this seriously.

47186k4mu1.gif
 
C

Clever Pun

Member
fanduck said:
I still don't know how seriously we're supposed to take sites like vgcharts.com, but Nintendo released to them their sales from end of 2006, and it was 1.25M in US. And today it was updated to 1.71M. That's a net of 460K (I assume they're all from the month of Jan).

As a side note, DS went from 10.18 to 10.72 in the same period (540K).
Click to expand...

I don't even know where to begin
 
J

JJConrad

Sucks at viral marketing
Hunted_One said:
The guy's name is Michael Pachter. The least you could do in return for all his 'predicting' and ultimately entertaining GAF is get his name right. :p
Click to expand...
I'm sorry. I'll try to do better.

I really wish we knew how Micheal Pachter makes his predictions. Does he get any early/raw data or does he simply make a guess? Last month, he pulled his PS3 and Wii numbers straight from what Sony and Nintendo were expected to ship. He doesn't seem to take in any consideration what retail is saying about sales, supply, or demand.

Last month I was saying Nintendo would have been lucky to have shipped more than 700k Wiis. I based that how few systems my store was getting before Christmas. The week after Christmas made me question that statement because I saw supply improving in that last week. I'd have done well if I stuck to my original predictions (I made an official prediction in last month preview thread). After seeing what the supply has been at my store for January, I'm have a hard time laughing off Michael Pacther's 500,000 prediction.



JJConrad said:
I'm sorry. I'll try to do better.
Click to expand...
I failed.
 
F

Fuzzy

I would bang a hot farmer!
bunkum said:
Now where was I before I was hit with the sonycowboy banning stick, my sister bought in January...................

Oh never mind, see if I can last the week without giving away more than NPD crumbs.
Click to expand...
Your tag is a lie, a lie!
 
D

donny2112

Member
fanduck said:
I still don't know how seriously we're supposed to take sites like vgcharts.com, but Nintendo released to them their sales from end of 2006, and it was 1.25M in US. And today it was updated to 1.71M. That's a net of 460K (I assume they're all from the month of Jan).
Click to expand...

Please don't tell me you actually think that Nintendo gives special data to VGCharts.org. ioi gets his data from the quarterly shipments that Nintendo puts out in their publicly available reports. His January total is nothing more than a guess, though. Remember his December total that came out before NPD? That was based on analyst predictions. He later revised it down after the NPD came out. His January total is more of the same. Also, Nintendo's shipment data is for North America, not just the U.S.

This is the problem I have with ioi's data. Not the data itself, but the people that use it and don't know what it actually is. Ignorance is very dangerous.

JJConrad said:
I really wish we knew how Micheal Pachter makes his predictions.
Click to expand...

Pachter said:
Our forecast is based upon a combination of channel checks, company press releases and intuition, with the greatest dependence upon intuition. Our channel checks are conducted by visiting a very small slice of the over 25,000 retail stores that carry video games in the U.S. We note that for a given game, a difference of only one unit per store per week could result in a difference of 100,000 units in volume, or $3 – 6 million in retail sales for the month. Therefore, we caution investors to use our estimates as only one data point in a sea of information.
Click to expand...

His intuition leaves something to be desired.


Welcome back, bunkum! :D
 
X

Xavien

Member
donny2112 said:
Please don't tell me you actually think that Nintendo gives special data to VGCharts.org. ioi gets his data from the quarterly shipments that Nintendo puts out in their publicly available reports. His January total is nothing more than a guess, though. Remember his December total that came out before NPD? That was based on analyst predictions. He later revised it down after the NPD came out. His January total is more of the same. Also, Nintendo's shipment data is for North America, not just the U.S.

This is the problem I have with ioi's data. Not the data itself, but the people that use it and don't know what it actually is. Ignorance is very dangerous.
Click to expand...

ioi haunts GAF from beyond the banning stick!

Seriously, the guy is banned and still VGCharts.org manages to get into Sales-Age threads.
 
J

jamesinclair

Banned
My highly controversial predictions are in

DS: 350,000
PS2: 315,000
X360: 260,000
Wii: 222,222
PSP: 175,000
GBA: 155,001
PS3: 155,000
NGC: 35,000
XBX: 2,429
 
P

PantherLotus

Professional Schmuck
Just wanted to go on record for saying WiiPlay is going to be huge. Every copy in my city has already sold. (But, I guess that's for FEB's #s anyway).


So...when do we find out actual estimated totals?
 
F

Fuzzy

I would bang a hot farmer!
PantherLotus said:
Just wanted to go on record for saying WiiPlay is going to be huge. Every copy in my city has already sold. (But, I guess that's for FEB's #s anyway).


So...when do we find out actual estimated totals?
Click to expand...
A little more than 24 hours from now.
 
D

donny2112

Member
PantherLotus said:
Just wanted to go on record for saying WiiPlay is going to be huge.
Click to expand...

With how necessary a second Wii-mote is to the system and the sales for it in Japan and Europe, I think > 200K for the first month is a shoe-in. At least > 500K overall, too.
 
V

VOOK

We don't know why he keeps buying PAL, either.
PantherLotus said:
Just wanted to go on record for saying WiiPlay is going to be huge. Every copy in my city has already sold. (But, I guess that's for FEB's #s anyway).


So...when do we find out actual estimated totals?
Click to expand...

Wii Play had a 79% attach rate in Australia, FYI
 
S

sonycowboy

Member
I think this month will be about the next-gen systems. Wii was obviously supply constrained but may still end up winning the month. The 360 has strengthened it's position of late and looks to build on that. The PS3 has been dealt just about every negative blow imaginable and looks to be a punching bag and that has definitely bled onto the consumer perception of the product. I fear this month may be pretty damning for the platform and while great titles are on the horizon, they aren't likely to push it past the competition because of the current perception coupled with a sticker shock that Sony is unlikely to shake.

The DS? Who knows. It was tough to find all month.

HW

Wii 380k (Supply Constrained)
DS 300k (Supply Constrained)
PS2 310k
360 290k
PS3 235k (It's not looking good for Sony here)
PSP 210k
GBA 210k

SW

Lost Planet #1
Guitar Hero #2
 
A

Agent Icebeezy

Welcome beautful toddler, Madison Elizabeth, to the horde!
sonycowboy said:
I think this month will be about the next-gen systems. Wii was obviously supply constrained but may still end up winning the month. The 360 has strengthened it's position of late and looks to build on that. The PS3 has been dealt just about every negative blow imaginable and looks to be a punching bag and that has definitely bled onto the consumer perception of the product. I fear this month may be pretty damning for the platform and while great titles are on the horizon, they aren't likely to push it past the competition because of the current perception coupled with a sticker shock that Sony is unlikely to shake.

The DS? Who knows. It was tough to find all month.

HW

Wii 380k (Supply Constrained)
DS 300k (Supply Constrained)
PS2 310k
360 290k
PS3 235k (It's not looking good for Sony here)
PSP 210k
GBA 210k

SW

Lost Planet #1
Guitar Hero #2
Click to expand...


Every time I go to the game store, two to three people always ask for a Wii. I think if they actually had enough out, they would have surpassed Microsoft, even at this early point. Anecdotal evidence for sure, but I've never witnessed people clamor for something like they do the Wii. It's amazing to watch.
 
P

pswii60

Member
I think all figures will be slightly higher than everyone expect. January can be a very big month indeed.

I expect 360 to do well, but PS3 to follow closely behind, and Wii to be the same as whatever has been shipped.

I expect the software to be something like...

1) Lost Planet
2) Wii Play
3) Guitar Hero
4) WarioWare Smooth Moves


Lost Planet has been going top 10 (no 1 in UK) across european weekly charts and has had some serious legs so I expect it to be #1 but who knows, eh!
 
Wulfer

Wulfer

Member
Lost Planet should stay #1 for a while it has (Halo) legs to stay. It's like crossing Mechassault and Halo with HUGE levels thrown in for good measure. The grippling hook just adds to it's greatness. Every XBL owner owes himself to get this game period! Killer 2007 line up starter for 360 indeed! :D
 
Haunted

Haunted

Member
cank stoochie said:
i predict heartache, fanboy orgies as well as tears, but above all this i predict
fuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuun :D
Click to expand...
QFT - that's what this is all about after all.
at least for me. :p
 
P

pswii60

Member
WULFER said:
Lost Planet should stay #1 for a while it has (Halo) legs to stay. It's like crossing Mechassault and Halo with HUGE levels thrown in for good measure. The grippling hook just adds to it's greatness. Every XBL owner owes himself to get this game period! Killer 2007 line up starter for 360 indeed! :D
Click to expand...

Halo had a fantastic story, Lost Planet absolutely does not. LP is no Halo but it still a damn good game IMO. Especially the graphics during the (annoying) Worm sequence on Mission 3 and towards the end of Mission 4 when you work your way up out of the hole and then come out the top with the sunset and it's like WOW OMGWTFBBQ @ the lighting. Graphics definitely add to the experience that is LP.

LP definitely has the wow-factor of the original Halo when it comes to the settings, but it really could have done with better story and cut-scene integration.

Sales-wise, it'll be through the roof.
 
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