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schuelma said:
Wow, that's surprising. I would've expected all the other versions of Iron Man (except PS3) to chart above the PSP version.
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Official May 2008 NPD Thread - Wii, GTA IV, and more Wii
- Thread starter sonycowboy
- Start date
Wow, that's surprising. I would've expected all the other versions of Iron Man (except PS3) to chart above the PSP version.
Nothing particularly surprising in these numbers. The inevitable outcome of a generation dominated by Wii. And obviously Wii numbers are amazing!
However, what is surprising is how so many Sony fans have grabbed onto PS3 sales as some sort of victory over 360, :lol
The difference between the two systems this month is statistical noise. And if is shows anything it's that PS3 has no chance of ever catching up to 360 and is destined for distant 3rd place in NA this generation in terms of hw and sw sold. PS3 needs to be doubling 360 sales for a good 6 months before it can be even reasonably suggested it's going to equal 360 ltd, let alone pass it.
EDIT-
I'm staggered by how clueless analysts and other industry professionals continue to be!
I get the feeling if they stopped being fanboys of real gaming (lolz), and actually attempted to, you know analyse the mass market, they might not look so fucking stupid most of the time.
I mean, there are still delusionals out there who think HD graphics matter :lol
However, what is surprising is how so many Sony fans have grabbed onto PS3 sales as some sort of victory over 360, :lol
The difference between the two systems this month is statistical noise. And if is shows anything it's that PS3 has no chance of ever catching up to 360 and is destined for distant 3rd place in NA this generation in terms of hw and sw sold. PS3 needs to be doubling 360 sales for a good 6 months before it can be even reasonably suggested it's going to equal 360 ltd, let alone pass it.
EDIT-
Wow! At this stage it's really not complicated!sphinx said:
I'm staggered by how clueless analysts and other industry professionals continue to be!
I get the feeling if they stopped being fanboys of real gaming (lolz), and actually attempted to, you know analyse the mass market, they might not look so fucking stupid most of the time.
I mean, there are still delusionals out there who think HD graphics matter :lol
schuelma said:
Yeah, Pokemon should be counted twice. There's slight differences between them and two SKUs to track.
:lol Why are people still saying Wii is the only console to not only get crap but sell that crap? I see Haze and two Iron Mans which sell on SONY's platforms to go along with Game Party and potentially We Ski.
This chart, along with the weekly PAL threads and Media-Create charts really show how much Nintendo is dominating this industry by.
Can we use some of the info in MS press release to calculate 3rd party sales on the various platforms this month?
boychat said:
ThatObviousUser
ὠαἴÏÏιÏÏÎ¿Ï Ïαá¿Ï εἶ
schuelma said:
That makes me really happy.
DayShallCome said:
Top 30 though.
So no God of War Chains of Olympus, Final Fantasy Crystal Core, Professor Layton, Rock Band or GHIII for the 360/PS3. I think 21-30 would be a much more interesting list.
I would consider Haze a flop finishing as low as did with the heavy magazine advertising and hype it got before its launch.
Midway must be ecstatic about Game Party, I mean that company bleeds money in its video game dept for the most part.
Sega reaps the rewards of Iron Man, too bad the game is so horribly bad :lol
I would consider Haze a flop finishing as low as did with the heavy magazine advertising and hype it got before its launch.
Midway must be ecstatic about Game Party, I mean that company bleeds money in its video game dept for the most part.
Sega reaps the rewards of Iron Man, too bad the game is so horribly bad :lol
Mgoblue201
Won't stop picking the right nation
I think that people are still baffled by the disconnect between demographics. It was easy for people to draw the parallel last generation between hardware and software. The hardcore seem to have this problem especially. It was easy to look at the PS2's user base, see games like GTA and Gran Turismo, and think "well, these are all the same people". But they're not an aggregate. GTA doesn't speak for a hundred million people as much as some would want it to. And truthfully there was a time last year that I thought GTA was a real opportunity and a potential boon for the 360.sphinx said:
But in some respects it's still speaking to the same choir. Hardware sales happen across years of time. People buy the 360 because it's in their wheelhouse. That's why "software bumps" rarely exist or at least have no lasting effect. If there was a way to extrapolate intention every time someone bought a console, I would surmise that it's infinitely more complex, and the situation much more diffused, then anyone is willing to give it credit for.
No6 said:
:lol :lol :lol :lol
I know, right? Why would a for-profit company ever set satisfying expectations? It is so much more productive to set dissappointing ones. [/sarcasm]
Your post history has always been negatively slanted towards the Wii, but now you're just venturing into the make-believe.
dammitmattt said:
The Wii's software only really started selling well in about November of last year, so it would be more useful to see if PS360 software sales have declined in that time, showing that the Wii was taking away sales. Unfortunately, there's no real way to know that without having access to the complete software numbers. However, we could get a limited view of things if someone created a line graph using the top 10 software for each month broken down by platform. I wouldn't be surprised if as the Wii's software rose up, the others' was declining (GTA4 notwithstanding).
This month, however, it looks like the sales of Wii games in the top 10 alone may have outsold the total software sales for the 360 or PS3, and possibly even combined.
Wii total in top 10: 2.057 Million units
PS360 total in top 10: 1.314 Million units
Difference: 743,000 units
It's certainly possible that the rest of the PS360 software sold more that 743,000 units combined, but it's just as possible that it didn't. And when you add in the other Wii games that are in the top 20, it's pretty obvious that Wii software sales easily outpaced the HD twins last month. Was that due to just a surge in Wii software sales, or a decline in the others'?
$19.99. And on that topic, can't wait for Game Party II!RBH said:
Carnival Games seem to have run out of steam, in time for the DS version to release. Though I wouldn't be surprised if it's still in the top 30.
Diatribe1974
Member
posting this from my new GoW PSP....that I got..... Just helping next months NPD
Concept17 said:
Seriously? The only marketing I saw for it was on GAF and maybe a couple of mentions of it on other gaming sites. But to the people who don't pay attention to those two locations? Nothing. Wii Fit is a different beast entirely though: Boom Blox can't compare to it in terms of the expanded marketing strategies involving all the news stations, Ellen, etc. and so on.
Stumpokapow
listen to the mad man
jjasper said:
On the upside, FPSs are very front loaded versus puzzle games and I'm sure ~70k is not the debut they were expecting.
Mgoblue201
Won't stop picking the right nation
What do these models address? Anything specific? I mean it's likely that GTA was a big influence on purchasing decisions, even if we don't see any one bump. And there are a lot of reasons why someone would buy a console one month vs. buying it another month. It's all just numbers, even if those numbers could be groomed over and fit into a predicted formula, unless specific intent is addressed. Is it anything like that? I'm sure they are sophisticated, but I don't know exactly what they are and who has access to them and things of that sort.liuelson said:
slaughterking
Member
Whats the source of this?schuelma said:
Microsoft's wonderfully retarded practice of bragging about monthly attach rates* makes this kind of easy to figure out.Chris FOM said:
186.6k hardware units*7.7 hillbilly factor as per official PR=1436.82k units of XBox 360 software sold in the May NPD period
*it's stupid because the worse a console's hardware sales get, the more this number grows.
bigmakstudios
Banned
borghe said:
Um, isn't that true though? Isn't the Wii's success predicated by expanding the market to people who don't normally play games with extremely simplified "non" games like Brain Age, Wii Fit, etc? If Nintendo didn't have those sorts of games on Wii, Wii would probably be the worst selling console right now.
Pureauthor
Member
bigmakstudios said:
'Retirement centres and day-cares' are hardly the sole environ in which one finds nongamers.
slaughterking
Member
Thank you.schuelma said:
AlphaTwo00
Member
We Ski is now crap?Jammy said:
Wow. I must be playing the wrong game.
We Ski was smart, tagging along the hardware accessory launch.
ThatObviousUser
ὠαἴÏÏιÏÏÎ¿Ï Ïαá¿Ï εἶ
We Ski is awesome. I would've bought a Balance Board + We Ski bundle over a Wii Fit bundle.
SapientWolf
Trucker Sexologist
What the hell people? What. The Hell.schuelma said:
And Boom Blox didn't even chart. Great marketing, EA.
Mgoblue201 said:
I don't want to derail, but a lot of the arguments on GAF do tend to follow these models. For example, here's an abbreviated list of factors that are believed to influence the diffusion of innovations, and what might be a corresponding GAF argument:
* Efficiency (return on investment): "The value proposition of the PS3 is so much better because of BD!"
* Communicability (easy to explain): "Just look at the graphics!"
* Compatibility (with ones values): "Hardcore games are only on the PS360!"
* Relative advantage (over alternatives): "Better graphics!"
* Reversibility (easy to go back to past practice): "Backwards compatibility!"
* Divisibility (adopt in stages): "You can buy the console, then the Wifi, then the HD-DVD, not all at once!"
* Financial Cost: "$599!"
* Complexity: "Waggle controls don't work well for x!"
* Commitment (resources required to adopt): "Need an HDTV with that HD console!"
* Gatekeepers (person who controls decision-making): "Dads want PS360 for Father's Day!"
* Point of Origin (reputation of innovation source): "Nintendo is for kidz!"
* Terminality (deadline to decide): "Just wait for x!"
You can see the fallacy - Sony and MS (and apparently quite a few professional analysts) all can make arguments about why their platform(s) should be preferred in the market. But clearly, Nintendo's "arguments" more accurately reflect reality.
hey pachter, time to clue in.
sales spike for holidays and price drops. nothing else. this is america, dude.
everything else is driven by ol' mo, and that doesn't shift overnight. your gta bump didn't happen in april, didn't happen in may, won't happen in june, and i better not hear yall analyst dorks talking about july, either.
you're looking at a temporary bump for the bundle for ps3 and continued lackluster performance for the 360 and it will stay that way until november or a price drop, whichever comes first.
sales spike for holidays and price drops. nothing else. this is america, dude.
everything else is driven by ol' mo, and that doesn't shift overnight. your gta bump didn't happen in april, didn't happen in may, won't happen in june, and i better not hear yall analyst dorks talking about july, either.
you're looking at a temporary bump for the bundle for ps3 and continued lackluster performance for the 360 and it will stay that way until november or a price drop, whichever comes first.
kame-sennin
Member
charlequin said:
The business model for the PS3 was not invented from whole cloth. The idea of a video game console providing a cinematic experience gained prominence with the PS1. Better graphics, dvd playback, high definition, blu-ray playback and storage capacity are all what's known as "sustaining innovations". They are innovations that improve upon a core set of market values - values established during the PS1 generation. Moreover, Sony stated publicly that PS1 and PS2 were part of a plan to create a living room top box that would branch into the PC market.
charlequin said:
That's not what "disruption" - as defined by Clayton Christensen in The Innovator's Dilemma, or as used by Nintendo in their press statements - means. Disruption is not synonymous with ass kicking
. As for the applying the carrot, I would argue that keeping dev costs down and money-hating MH3 and Fatal Frame 4 is a pretty effective carrot. leroy hacker said:
Quoted because it needs to be seen again.
Vinci said:
I don't know, it's advertised pretty well here in the UK but has only been lingering in the 20s so far, so about the same as it's doing in the US. It's a puzzle game, though, what's important is for it to consistently stay up there.
I'd be terribly disappointed if it didn't meet expectations though, because as much as I love the game there is room for a lot of improvement in a sequel.
So Brawl has officially passed the 5million mark worldwide.
Japan: 1,620,000 (as of May 11th, 08)
USA: 3,197,100 (as of end of May 08)
Canada: 200,000 (As of end of March 08)
Total Sales: 5,017,100
To pass Melee (7.09 mil) it needs 2,072,900 more copies sold... considering Europe and Australia STILL don't have the game that shouldn't be too hard.
Japan: 1,620,000 (as of May 11th, 08)
USA: 3,197,100 (as of end of May 08)
Canada: 200,000 (As of end of March 08)
Total Sales: 5,017,100
To pass Melee (7.09 mil) it needs 2,072,900 more copies sold... considering Europe and Australia STILL don't have the game that shouldn't be too hard.
kame-sennin said:That's not what "disruption" - as defined by Clayton Christensen in The Innovator's Dilemma, or as used by Nintendo in their press statements - means. Disruption is not synonymous with ass kicking
The problem is: It appears that many devs, at least up till this point, have no appetite for carrots and prefer something else. And when I call that a 'problem,' I don't mean for Nintendo. Jump onboard the new values or get ready to be removed from the market by your own inaction - or, in Ubisoft's case, fumbling resistance.
SapientWolf
Trucker Sexologist
It's also a thread for Nintendo fans to gloat about how being number one in sales make the Wii the best platform this generation. I think Wii has a lot of potential. But everyone should be upset when shovelware outsells quality titles, no matter which platform they are on.borghe said:
Unless you own Nintendo stock there's no reason to treat the sales alone like some kind of victory. You don't see people on movie forums gloating when Alvin and the Chipmunks obliterates No Country for Old men in movie sales. If millions of people are led to think video games are shallow and disposable it's a lose for everybody.
Here's a hypothetical situation:
Let's imagine that upstreaming (as described by the strategy of disruption) is occurring with the Wii. If this were the case, Wii would be gaining a stronger foothold in more upmarket game markets (i.e. the software would cover more genres) and the HD consoles would be forced higher upmarket (their games would have to become more increasingly complex). The sales of the upmarket games on the HD consoles would still be high, as would attach rates (seeing as the Wii doesn't offer similar experiences...yet), but the sales charts would increasingly become dominated by software on Nintendo's platform.
Now, let's look at these NPD numbers. Can we reject the null hypothesis?
Let's imagine that upstreaming (as described by the strategy of disruption) is occurring with the Wii. If this were the case, Wii would be gaining a stronger foothold in more upmarket game markets (i.e. the software would cover more genres) and the HD consoles would be forced higher upmarket (their games would have to become more increasingly complex). The sales of the upmarket games on the HD consoles would still be high, as would attach rates (seeing as the Wii doesn't offer similar experiences...yet), but the sales charts would increasingly become dominated by software on Nintendo's platform.
Now, let's look at these NPD numbers. Can we reject the null hypothesis?
Gamer @ Heart
Member
Were are those extra numbers for games like Boom Blox, Okami, and Haze? I figuered someone would have found them by now. Is the passion really goe out of NPD or are most people just playing MGS? Maybe i just missed them.
Stumpokapow
listen to the mad man
liuelson said:I always forget - does rejecting the null hypothesis mean disruption is happening, or that disruption is not happening?
Either / or could be written as the null hypothesis, but there's not anywhere near enough data in the top 10 monthly to reject or accept anything to any statistical significance, and his hypothesis needs to be worded mathematically.
SapientWolf said:
Yeah, what the fuck is happening with Iron Man?
You can if you're fundamentally interested in seeing business strategies collide and how they impact one another. We're not allowed to enjoy watching the business of the industry as it fluctuates and alters? I find what Nintendo is doing fascinating not only as a Nintendo fan but as someone with at least a casual interest in business.
Interestingly enough, Iron Man only appears on the list on Sony platforms - at least in the Top 20. Otherwise I don't see your comment being analogous to anything.
Yeah. WTF Sega.
milanbaros
Member?
Firestorm said:
With the Wii being much more successful than the GC in Europe its become a lot easier to pass the big Nintendo games of last gen.
ThatObviousUser
ὠαἴÏÏιÏÏÎ¿Ï Ïαá¿Ï εἶ
laserbeam said:
If so then MKWii will easilly pass 15 mil. :lol
kame-sennin
Member
TheKingsCrown said:
I don't think the publishers are as dumb as you claim them to be. They have been disrupted, and such a market strategy can make even the most well managed firms look foolish. Often times, incumbents who have been disrupted are excellent managers who have done everything right - remember that overshooting the market is the result of steadily improving on a quality product. The reason why disruption is so frightening (CEOs have gone on record and said that they are literally scared of being disrupted) is because once it begins, continuing to operate in the manor that made you market leader will only make the problem worse. It's not easy to take the philosophy and processes that have been established in a given firm, and have led that firm to success, and completely realign them to a strategy that at first seemed unprofitable. That kind of a turn around would be difficult for any company, even Nintendo, who started on this path during the Gamecube gen.
You also have to take into consideration the fact that Nintendo's new philosophy is unpalatable or even impossible for some publishers and developers, as you can see below:
leroy hacker said:
If Epic embraced the Wii, they would go bankrupt. Over firms face a less grim fate, but their business model may still be predicated on providing improved graphics and online play to established franchises. If these values become irrelevant, all their marque franchises could become irrelevant as well. So for many third parties, the safest bet may be to ignore the Wii, or put small titles on the platform to pad risk in other areas until they can figure out a way to neutralize the Wii threat.
Vinci said:
There are ways to stop a disruptor in its tracks, but I haven't read enough of Christensen to explain them all. The only one I can think of off the top of my head is co-option (basically copying). But that won't really help third parties to slow Nintendo down.
Shin Johnpv
Member
schuelma said:
This break down is beginning to look like the Media Create threads.