Opus Angelorum
Member
Mojovonio said:
Like I said, wrong.
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Official November 2007 NPD Preview Thread
- Thread starter sonycowboy
- Start date
Like I said, wrong.
Father_Brain
Banned
Good thing the numbers won't be released until a few hours after my 10-page paper is due.
Agent Icebeezy
Welcome beautful toddler, Madison Elizabeth, to the horde!
One thing I don't get about that chart is that it would be requiring the PS3 to outsell the Wii at what the Wii is doing currently. That is impossible.
Blind faith in the brand. We'll see if that faith is broken in a few days.
schuelma said:
Blind faith in the brand. We'll see if that faith is broken in a few days.
Opus Angelorum
Member
justjohn said:
It seems they are just warming up!
speculawyer
Member
All games. My (silly) derived rule is that whether it is game or accessory depends on what it is called on the box. If the box gives the name of the game (Wii Play), it is a game and if the box gives the name of the accessory (Zapper), it is an accessory.jarrod said:
speculawyer
Member
Jtyettis said:
Well, it says "* Year-end Figures", so it has the PS3 beating the xbox 360 at the end of 2008 . . . but even that is completely unrealistic.
are you saying by the end of 2008 360 sales will level off and the ps3 will begin to triple, gaining Wii'like momentum?theBishop said:
what would cause the PS3 to double its sales by the end of 2008? and to continue doing so for the next 2 years?
That kind of sales bump happens gradually and not so abruptly
In order for the ps3 to receive the bump predicted in that forecast, it would need more momentum than it has now
speculawyer
Member
Either that or they are dumb enough to continue to fall for the "Playstation brand" spin that Sony keeps spewing. Maybe these are really old estimates? Seriously, after a year of data on the PS3, there is no way anyone could make that prediction.schuelma said:
SIP YEK NOD
Banned
horribly wrong.Opus Angelorum said:
starting from january 08, the ps3 and wii lines start converging. the only way that could possibly happen would be if the ps3 is outselling the wii. it isn't going to magically start this january or even next.
Hey, after the 4th time someone quoted the chart .. maybe there is no need to quote it anymore?
In 2006, they predicted that the 360 would sell 1.25 million units in November and December of 06. There was a big thread about it.
http://www.gamepro.com/news.cfm?article_id=79813
In 2006, they predicted that the 360 would sell 1.25 million units in November and December of 06. There was a big thread about it.
http://www.gamepro.com/news.cfm?article_id=79813
It will. Also, 360 will outsell N64 and PS3 will outsell Genesis. PS3 probably won't outsell 360 when all's said and done though, it's just not doing well enough in any lone region to really make up for generally flat sales elsewhere (unlike 360, which is going to rule America for awhile).Mithos Yggdrasill said:
DS will outsell PS2 and PSP might outsell SNES imo too, depending on further hardware redesigns for both.
Ah, that makes sense then.speculawyer said:
Let's revisit a past Screen Digest analysis:
http://www.gamasutra.com/php-bin/news_index.php?story=12890
http://www.gamasutra.com/php-bin/news_index.php?story=12890
LOL...Thanks for the laughs! It's been a rough day!theBishop said:
---
It doesn't surprise me to see the 360 tapering off hard. As time goes on, 360's global weakness is going to become a liability. What surprises me is they have Wii going strong all the way through 2011. I don't see how Nintendo can keep their vastly inferior hardware (both in power and in network functions) interesting in the face of more advanced technology (and presumably games).
VegaShinra
Junior Member
If Mario Galaxy pushed 1.2 million this month, then that is amazing. I knew the game would sell well in America but 1.2 million in November is great. December sales will also be high but not that high.
B-Rad Lascelle
Banned
Now now... don't laugh. I'm sure theBishop still buys into that graph as well.schuelma said:
Assassin's Creed would surprise... it's a new IP after all.ntb825 said:
X360 Call of Duty 4 outselling Mario Galaxy wouldn't shock me at all. And it's probably a given if you tack on the PS3 SKU on top of it.
Mithos Yggdrasill
Banned
theBishop said:
I think that they don't care. I'm serious: they don't care about the industry and its expansion as they said. Nintendo's problem was the continuos decline of their installed base. With the non-games, blue Ocean, ecc... they found a way to escape from it and they created their OWN market, where nodoby can concurrentiate them. This is enough for Nintendo as long as they're profitable enough and they will not change strategy as long as this market remains blue, ergo only for them. And I doubt that we'll see a serious casual concurrent very soon, because PS3 and X360 are still concentrating themself to the hardcore market.
speculawyer
Member
Hey . . . please put forth an argument if you disagree. I'll admit I'm not creating elaborate models, but my view of the past data and my view of projections just doesn't match with what that graph shows. But Patcher also thinks the PS3 will win out in the end . . . it is possible . . . but even if it did happen, I seriously doubt the PS3 would pass the 360 by the end of 2008.Mojovonio said:
speculawyer
Member
:lolbotticus said:Let's revisit a past Screen Digest analysis:
botticus said:Let's revisit a past Screen Digest analysis:
http://www.gamasutra.com/php-bin/news_index.php?story=12890
Wait..... WHAT?
How do they see the Wii tapering off enough for the PS3 to beat it?
speculawyer said:
Even if you add an extra amount of periods to your sentences, you still sound like you're pulling everything out of your ass.
And i hope you know I'm kidding.
Mojovonio said:
In their defense, that graph was done in February of this year. Who here, by February, was convinced the Wii was not going to finish third in the U.S. and Europe? Who was convinced the Wii was not going to finish a distinct second to the PS3 in Japan? Show of hands. What? Almost everyone here? Nevermind, then.
neptunes said:
Of course it would need more momentum than it has now. Enter MGS4, GT5P, GTA4, DMC4, LBP, Home, Killzone2, etc. I know some of those are multiplatform, but worldwide, that's a bigger boost for PS3 where 360 is a nonstarter in many regions.
Outside of US, UK, and Australia, Xbox360 is really struggling. There's 120+ mil PS2 owners in the world, and the vast majority of them have not chosen a next-gen system. Those PS2 owners (which by the way continue to grow) are probably predisposed to the PS3, but will wait for the price/library to hit their sweet spot. Obviously that didn't happen in 2007.
Given the huge library coming in 2008, and the relative weakness of the 360 library, I think PS3 can at least match 360's numbers in the 360's key foothold markets starting around March (when MGS4 is expected), and continuing for the rest of the year. Where PS3 really pulls ahead are in the countries where 360 is a nonfactor.
I don't think its at all unrealistic to think PS3 is going to outpace Xbox360. I don't know if it can do it by the end of 2008 like the graph says, but it will be clear by the end of 2008, 360 is not going to be the system of choice for traditional gamers worldwide.
As for Wii, I have no prediction to make. I'm not sure the current strategy is really competing in the same space as Xbox and Playstation. When its heavy hitters in 2007 are Wii Play and Mario Party, they are obviously reaching a different audience. So to predict PS3-vs-Wii has more to do with whether Wii's audience gets tired of it than which system is delivering more compelling content to gamers.
PepsimanVsJoe
Member
I don't understand. TheBishop's avatar basically states he doesn't care for NPD yet here he is.
Amazing graphs by the way.
Amazing graphs by the way.
speculawyer
Member
Holy smokes . . . that article is really funny considering what we know today. I'll cut them slack since that article is from a long time ago . . . but even by February, they should have noticed that something was wrong with their view of things since you could find PS3s on store shelves but Wiis were still sold out.botticus said:
They had the PS3 winning with the Wii "a distant third" . . . they simply could not have gotten it any more wrong! :lol
perfectchaos007
Member
Pachter got his predictions way too close to GAF's. I guess he realized that GAF makes better predictions than he does so hes just using us to form his. If that's the case then he is pretty smart.
I never get this logic... 360 actually having a few notably strong regions versus PS3 basically stuggling in all regions seems to invaraibly equate to a rosier future for PS3? :loltheBishop said:
I'll tell you what happens, 360 kills PS3 in America, PS3 kills 360 in Japan, Europe's a dead heat with both essentially tied for last, and 360 edges out slightly more worldwide thanks largely to their decent American lead. It's like GC/Xbox all over again, only not quite as pitiful for both sides.
BenjaminBirdie
Banned
jarrod said:
Also, after seeing a trailer like Prototype and seeing the performance of titles like CoD4 and Assassin's Creed around the globe, I'm starting to think that calling the 2008 software lineup strongly in Sony's favor sales-wise to be entirely premature.
PepsimanVsJoe
Member
theBishop said:
So I'll be seeing you on Thursday as well then?
Great.....
Whatever attempt you had at making a statement has been nullified by the way.
andthebeatgoeson
Junior Member
5 million is not fucked. In no land. Not as good but not as gloomy as you claim. That's still $300 million in revenue, just on $60 editions. It's just not the big, orgasm-bonanza it was. Wii Sports, Wii Play and Wii Fit will occupy those spots this generation.orio7 said:
I think everyone has a good enough handle on hardware numbers to guestimate them pretty well. I think the big surprises will come in software, with big PS3 and 360 releases and continued Wii domination through Mario.
This will be a long week. It will take a lot to beat last year's Gears/Zelda/Resistance matchup, but this might take the cake.
This will be a long week. It will take a lot to beat last year's Gears/Zelda/Resistance matchup, but this might take the cake.
speculawyer
Member
jarrod said:
Sounds about right to me . . . at least for the near future.
Things may change a bit if HDTV gains a much deeper penetration and people want their games and movies in HD.
But as a long time HDTV owner, if there is one thing I've learned it is that adoption is slow and consumers are stupid.
Oh . . . an an economic meltdown could throw a monkey-wrench (or spanner for you UK/Australia people) in the works.
speculawyer
Member
skinnyrattler said:
5 million is very respectable . . . . but the problem is going forward . . . consoles have a rich get richer, poor get poorer factor that may come to hurt.
2K Sports not having a PS3 version of Prizefighter may be a sign of things to come . . . I know, it is not a big important title. But it may be a canary in the coal mine . . . if more publishers do the same, things could get ugly. But I was actually kinda surprised by that move. I suspect that publishers will continue to at least support the PS3 with ports of 360 versions just to spread the development cost of a next-gen title onto two platforms. But since the PS3 market isn't real big, the ports may continue being sloppy.
Agent Icebeezy
Welcome beautful toddler, Madison Elizabeth, to the horde!
speculawyer said:
Here in the states, people are worried about saving their house, not a damn HDTV. 360 and PS3 are both getting shot in the foot with that. Nobody cares about the Wii's lack of graphical muscle because that was established day one. It isn't some new revelation. I've commented plenty of times that the PS2/Xbox/GC era is the first era of games I can go back to and not want to drop kick my TV. If I think that most of the games hold up, a person with a less discerning eye is not going to give a shit as the Wii will always be good enough for them.
BenjaminBirdie
Banned
speculawyer said:
Yeah, that was a really surprising move, especially since it wasn't a PC-style title like BioShock or something. This is a console game through and through and PS3 was just cold left out of the party.