Psychotext
Member
Which would be why I said "true"...DeaconKnowledge said:That doesn't invalidate what he said though.
/facepalm
Which would be why I said "true"...DeaconKnowledge said:That doesn't invalidate what he said though.
doicare said:Worldwide on a monthly basis the ps3 is outselling the 360 and this has been happening for a very long time. Unless the ps3 never gets a price drop it's not a matter of if the ps3 will over take the 360 it's a matter of when.
Sales numbers are hard to come by when it comes to the gaming industry; there is no public source of information for what games and consoles are selling. The closest thing that the press has is the monthly sales report from the NPD Group. These numbers are important, and every game blog on every corner of the Internet publishes its take on what the numbers mean. Having a game on the top ten sales is big news; your title looks like a success, and suddenly everyone is talking about it. Publishers love a blockbuster, so Ars asks the question: year to date, what consoles are owning the monthly top ten list?
We studied the last ten months of data from NPD and tabulated how many games each console had in the top ten list each month. As of October, here are the totals:
The trends are obvious. When it comes to the best-selling games month after month, the Wii and the Xbox 360 dominate. Digging a little deeper, however, and you can begin to see why the 360 is so enticing to third-party developers: 25 of the 34 games the Wii put on the list were published by Nintendo itself. Each game also stayed on the charts month after month. Titles like Mario Kart, Wii Play, and Wii Fit were each counted multiple times; Wii Play is rarely off the chart. This is good news for Nintendo, but bad news for everyone else: Nintendo excels at selling Nintendo games and keeping a few games relevant for a long time.
Here is another way of looking at the data, after we've removed Nintendo first-party games and titles that chart multiple times:
The Xbox 360, by contrast, charts many third-party games each month. Many different games. In almost every case where a multiplatform game was released on multiple consoles, the 360 version hit the charts while the PS3 version was either nowhere to be seen, or sold in far fewer numbers. In August, Madden 2009 sold 1 million units on the Xbox 360, and 643,000 on the PS3. It was a hit on both consoles, but the 360 took the number one slotand by no small margin.
The PS2 only charted nine games this year, but there is another clear trend: tie-ins, ports, and "event" games do very well. If you look at the games that made it into the top ten list you'll see what I mean. Guitar Hero 2, Transformers, Madden '09, Lego Indiana Jones... all these games were put on every system under the sun and were part of a major franchise. If you have a title with broad appeal, it's worth porting it to the aging PS2.
The DS is just like the Wii in that Nintendo games do very well. The PS3 does fine with the ultra-huge releases, such as EA's sports games and a few exclusives, such as LittleBigPlanet and Metal Gear Solid 4, but publishers have to see what's so clear on the chart: the 360 sells many more games to many more people.
While the fights taking place under the top ten list are largely invisible to the public, it wouldn't be a surprise if these trends continued when looking at the top twenty, or even the top thirty. Sony lacks the ability to chart a wide array of blockbusters, and the publishers know it.
arsetechnica said:While the fights taking place under the top ten list are largely invisible to the public, it wouldn't be a surprise if these trends continued when looking at the top twenty, or even the top thirty. Sony lacks the ability to chart a wide array of blockbusters, and the publishers know it.
Jtyettis said:Ars does a breakdown of top ten per platform YTD with comparisons of First versus Third Party;
http://arstechnica.com/news.ars/post/20081116-npd-software-top-ten-list-the-360-is-a-publishers-best-bet.html
Deku said:Having been privy to top 30 lists , this assumption simply isn't true and won't hold up.
For one, there aren't enough big name titles for the PS3 or Nintendo 1st party titles for the assumed trends to hold.
It's also to note that much of the unit sales for the DS and wii numbers are of Nintendo first party software sales. With third party rounding out whatever is left.Jokeropia said:It should be noted that the top ten gives a very limited picture of the overall market:
You wouldn't think looking at the top ten charts that DS is the #2 system for software sales YTD after Wii, and that 360 is only #4 after PS2.
Revelations said:Where are your numbers? 360 crossed into the 6 million user category in EU back in July with no Sony retort on where the PS3 stood in that region comparatively. 360 has been selling more than the PS3 in Japan for the last 2 months. The 400k YTD lead the PS3 had in NA is now usurped by 16k 360 units and seems to be on task to grow even more in both EU & NA by the end of the year.
While that might be the case, you cannot draw any conclusions whatsoever regarding how much from just the top ten charts.Revelations said:It's also to note that much of the unit sales for the DS and wii numbers are of Nintendo first party software sales.
Jokeropia said:While that might be the case, you cannot draw any conclusions whatsoever regarding how much from just the top ten charts.
Fact is that third party sales have outpaced first party sales on both DS and Wii lately:
(chartzzzzzz)
freddy said:Interesting that the Xbox/360 software share doesnt seem to have grown at all despite the overall increase in overall sales.
referring to this: http://www.irwebcasting.com/081031/19/05aa1cbb9a/image/p15.gif
affableamerican said:(albeit, on a top 10 perspective, which is not the whole story... just the most important part of the story )
No, you're right. Evergreen titles and titles with long legs make a killing in the 'tail' of these sales curves. I mis-spoke*. But I feel like you're overlooking my point. My main point was that the difference between the Ars charts and the charts Jokeropia posted are as follows -- the Wii has an insane number of OVERALL 3rd party sales, but far fewer 3rd party titles that achieve high monthly numbers.donny2112 said:Please, tell me that no one else here is this short-sighted.
affableamerican said:No, you're right. Evergreen titles and titles with long legs make a killing in the 'tail' of these sales curves. I mis-spoke*. But I feel like you're overlooking my point. My main point was that the difference between the Ars charts and the charts Jokeropia posted are as follows -- the Wii has an insane number of OVERALL 3rd party sales, but far fewer 3rd party titles that achieve high monthly numbers.
I think your implied point -- that a given 3rd party title has a much better chance of a longer tail on the Wii -- is a good one. Are there data that clarify all this for us? Namely, data that show the LTD sales for the, say, top 30 3rd party titles for the three major platforms. These data would show what a publisher would be most closely attending to -- how well do individual 3rd party titles sell on the different platforms.
*I'm fine with admitting I'm wrong. I wish more people on GAF would reserve that right too.
I believe the vast majority of portable games are played in a private setting. Essentially, that time that portable games are played at home or in cars far outweighs the amount of time spent playing in a train, bus or plane.dammitmattt said:3. You look like a complete tool playing this on the bus or train
Leondexter said:The only thing that can change this cycle at this point would be for the Wii to have a come-from-nowhere breakout hit, in the vein of GTA III on the PS2 last gen. I don't see it happening (but no one ever does, of course). It's a shame. I'm mostly content to have my blockbusters on the PS3 or 360 (enjoying Resistance, Gears, and Mirror's Edge right now), and my smaller-scale Kororinpa, Trauma Center, de Blob-type games on the Wii--except for the shooter categories. I really wish there were more first- and third-person shooters being made for the Wii. The controls are just perfect for them.
Leondexter said:The only thing that can change this cycle at this point would be for the Wii to have a come-from-nowhere breakout hit, in the vein of GTA III on the PS2 last gen. I don't see it happening (but no one ever does, of course). It's a shame.
affableamerican said:Evergreen titles and titles with long legs make a killing in the 'tail' of these sales curves.
affableamerican said:the Wii has an insane number of OVERALL 3rd party sales, but far fewer 3rd party titles that achieve high monthly numbers.
affableamerican said:I think your implied point -- that a given 3rd party title has a much better chance of a longer tail on the Wii -- is a good one.
affableamerican said:Namely, data that show the LTD sales for the, say, top 30 3rd party titles for the three major platforms. These data would show what a publisher would be most closely attending to -- how well do individual 3rd party titles sell on the different platforms.
skinnyrattler said:It's gonna take more than one. But yes, if Bloom Box had ended up selling 8 million, I'm sure 3rd parties would have contradicted the theory of being stuck with HD games because they 'invested' in them by hitting the next holiday with big Wii games.
Jtyettis said:Any idea how many titles as far as third party and first party have released YTD on each console. That could provide some interesting data points as well.
skinnyrattler said:It's gonna take more than one. But yes, if Bloom Box had ended up selling 8 million, I'm sure 3rd parties would have contradicted the theory of being stuck with HD games because they 'invested' in them by hitting the next holiday with big Wii games.
donny2112 said:Averages are pretty much useless, as well, so I doubt it.
Leondexter said:With all the bits and pieces of data we have that show 3rd party games do, in fact, sell on the Wii, we always get a big discussion (or argument) in NPD threads about why more 3rd parties aren't supporting the Wii. But they obviously ARE supporting it--that's where these sales are coming from. They're just not supporting it with the types of games that hit the top of the charts--and they know it. The sales expectations we see from publishers reflects this. And then they see this data, showing that Wii games don't have these high initial sales, and continue to not attempt to make "blockbuster" Wii games. And round and round we go. It's a self-fulfilling prophecy, strangely similar to how the Gamecube was treated, despite the Wii's breakneck hardware sales.
The only thing that can change this cycle at this point would be for the Wii to have a come-from-nowhere breakout hit, in the vein of GTA III on the PS2 last gen. I don't see it happening (but no one ever does, of course). It's a shame. I'm mostly content to have my blockbusters on the PS3 or 360 (enjoying Resistance, Gears, and Mirror's Edge right now), and my smaller-scale Kororinpa, Trauma Center, de Blob-type games on the Wii--except for the shooter categories. I really wish there were more first- and third-person shooters being made for the Wii. The controls are just perfect for them.
- only USAJtyettis said:Any idea how many titles as far as third party and first party have released YTD on each console. That could provide some interesting data points as well.
Wii:
Total: 217
3rd P.: 209
1st P.: 8
Xbox 360:
Total: 140
3rd P.: 129
1st P.: 11
Playstation 3:
Total: 118
3rd P.: 108
1st P.: 10
Captain Smoker said:- YTD 2008
- only USA
- source is GameFAQs
bcn-ron said:The Conduit will be awesome and will sell awesome and will improve all of our lives.
*Best genre for the controller.
*Violence versus aliens is proven to be greatly compatible with typical male gamers.
*Exclusive to Wii, so no "I'll get the *** version instead".
*One of the frontrunners in tech on the system.
But most importantly, it's third party. If it does decently well, there'll be a reason to bring it up at least once on every other page in every NPD thread for the remainder of the decade.
I still don't see it, even if this happened. The Wii market is very different...those 30+ million Wii owners, not all of them are like you and me who would pick up top brass like MGS4 et al. Sure, there'd be a regular few hundred thousand or even a million...but more of those gamers own a 360 right now. And you know what? I am actually glad that Wii does not have this market tied down. The very last thing I want to see this generation is one manufacturer holding all others by the balls, like Sony did last gen. I think it's a lot better off for us as consumers, competition wise, to have the split we have now.Shin Johnpv said:Imagine if 3rd parties put some effort into their Wii games, you might see more than 4 of them breaking into the top 10.
Leondexter said:The only thing that can change this cycle at this point would be for the Wii to have a come-from-nowhere breakout hit, in the vein of GTA III on the PS2 last gen.
Pancakes R Us said:I still don't see it, even if this happened. The Wii market is very different...those 30+ million Wii owners, not all of them are like you and me who would pick up top brass like MGS4 et al. Sure, there'd be a regular few hundred thousand or even a million...but more of those gamers own a 360 right now. And you know what? I am actually glad that Wii does not have this market tied down. The very last thing I want to see this generation is one manufacturer holding all others by the balls, like Sony did last gen. I think it's a lot better off for us as consumers, competition wise, to have the split we have now.
Jtyettis said:Not looking for averages I'm looking for hard data points in comparison to dropping inside/outside NPD top ten each month and overall totals. Data points are probably out there but not likely aggregated.
heh, of course this works with other consoles too, go look up the number of PS2 games compared to either XB or GC, you'll realize those two platforms (XB & GC compared to PS2) look much better when spinning the numbers this same way. In fact it's the same way with every first place console compared to the losers as the console with the largest user base gets the most games. Pretty useless statistic.Jtyettis said:Ah, ty, I stand corrected. Someone has put it together.
On average that would push down 3rd party sales per title by quite a decent margin compared to x360.
If you say the Wii sold 21 million (best guestimate YTD) 3rd party software that would give the per title average of a 100k. If you say the x360 is at 23,000,000 (best guesstimate YTD) third party software sales that would give the per title average of a 178k. Those are not perfect guesstimates but probably not too far from reality based on data to date. Simply why those 80 additional titles actually matter.
Weisheit said:heh, of course this works with other consoles too, go look up the number of PS2 games compared to either XB or GC, you'll realize those two platforms (XB & GC compared to PS2) look much better when spinning the numbers this same way. In fact it's the same way with every first place console compared to the losers as the console with the largest user base gets the most games. Pretty useless statistic.
Jtyettis said:I wasn't looking for average release data points per month for one.
donny2112 said:And that's not the average I was saying would be pretty much useless.
damisa said:I've been saying for months that Wii needs breakout 3rd party hits to be taken seriously. PS2 got something like 36 3rd party titles to sell over 2 million.
Wii has two:
Mario & Sonic at the Olympic Games (3.4 million) (This is arguably a 1st party game)
Guitar Hero III: Legends of Rock (2 million)
This is despite the fact that the wii's userbase is growing considerably faster than the PS2's did.
Jtyettis said:Heh, well apparently the one you are saying that is pretty much useless seems to suggest otherwise.
donny2112 said:And that's the sentiment I was trying to head off with my original statement. :lol
What if all 80 of those extra games bombed and sold under 10K each? You don't know.
Maybe they all sold 100K each? You don't know.
It's a pretty much useless statistic and does not prove what you're trying to make it prove.
Jtyettis said:That does not however make up for lack of titles being real third party hits.
VeritasVierge said:Finally finished reading this whole thread.
Jtyettis said:How long did it take you? That might be a stat worth noting. :lol
P.S. This has been on Epic NPD. Probably the best in nearly a year.
Count Dookkake said:Next month's will be even better.
It sold 1.5m before the end of 2007, according to Realtime Worlds.Segata Sanshiro said:It possibly could have, but from a sales perspective, we'll never know. Sort of like ZOE in that way.
GhaleonEB said:But I do think it would be a hit without the beta bundle based off the success of the demo alone (it was near the top of the Live charts for a couple of weeks running before the game shipped).
bcn-ron said:The Conduit will be awesome and will sell awesome and will improve all of our lives.
*Best genre for the controller.
*Violence versus aliens is proven to be greatly compatible with typical male gamers.
*Exclusive to Wii, so no "I'll get the *** version instead".
*One of the frontrunners in tech on the system.
But most importantly, it's third party. If it does decently well, there'll be a reason to bring it up at least once on every other page in every NPD thread for the remainder of the decade.
About 4 hours total give or take. Started Fri evening and read bit by bit over the weekend. The laughs just kept coming. :lolJtyettis said:How long did it take you? That might be a stat worth noting. :lol
P.S. This has been one Epic NPD. Probably the best in nearly a year.