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[Sadist]

What he meant was that FF XIII being on two platforms means that any XIII hardware bump will be split, lessening the chance of one/both being top hardware for the month.

Yeah, basicly. English isn't my first language so I make a mistake every now and then regarding posting. Sorry about that.

 

[Stumpokapow]

Is anyone interested in compiling an ELSPA-style sales award list for NPD numbers?

It would help us get a better sense of game milestones and such, at least for the numbers we get. As in for each console, a list of games over

100k
200k
300k
500k
750k
1000k
2000k
5000k

derivative data. npd would shit a brick. :/

 

[Sadist]

The thing people have to remember is we're essentially talking about 2010 here. Do you think that the PS3 AND 360 will both be selling at their current level, and do you think the Wii is going to still be at IT'S current level? I'm not saying we're going to see a fundamental change in the landscape (I'd still say Wii>>>>>>360>>PS3) but I could honestly see one or both of the HD consoles selling respectably, and I fully expect Wii's sales to be beyond solid, but not to SUSTAIN the kind of levels we've seen up to this point. 450-500k, which, in a major major software month is beatable (not easily, but beatable)

Of course and I do agree with you. Sales will increase in the forthcoming years (well, MS and Sony are rooting for it anyway) but, there are still people around who are kind of stuck in the GTA IV fase of sales-age. And of course, what JoshuaJSlone said.

 

[Gaborn]

Of course and I do agree with you. Sales will increase in the forthcoming years (well, MS and Sony are rooting for it anyway) but, there are still people around who are kind of stuck in the GTA IV fase of sales-age. And of course, what JoshuaJSlone said.

Yep, and I understand the danger of a split HD "exclusive" like FFXIII. I can see one platform over the other getting a significantly greater allocation of units though (60/40, 70/30 split, something like that) which tilts it one way or the other enough. I'm also guessing that with the Wii's slight decrease in sales (by that point it's got to, doesn't it?) it'll be more vulnerable than it is right now from big games.

 

[Evlar]

Dragon Quest IV at 35k? God damn it.

Most everything else I've seen from September was predictable and sensible. I suppose Dragon Quest performance was predictable, too. Sadly.

 

[wayward archer]

Isn't Star Wars a good argument that Wii gamers are more discriminating?

Plenty of 'worse' (subjective I know) games have sold better than this on wii. I'd expect a mediocre star wars game (Star Wars is still a strong brand these days) to do better.

I think a very good case could be made that the majority of wii owners aren't interested in non-multiplayer/party/family games. Even then there are a few cases that mystify me (boom blox should have sold much better than it did).

I would love to know how many wii owners have at least one other console. That would help explain a lot.

 

[kottila]

I think a very good case could be made that the majority of wii owners aren't interested in non-multiplayer/party/family games. Even then there are a few cases that mystify me (boom blox should have sold much better than it did).

More than the 450k it had sold at the end of july?

 

[CaVaYeRo]

can we get De Blob numbers?

because it clearly was Wii Game of the month

EDIT: Oh, and I'm also interested in Wario.

EDIT: Ok, I saw many were asking and nobody answered!

Hmm should work this way:

??

 

[harSon]

No, we're talking about full-blown Toshiba HD DVD players (not the add-on) that were going for $199 last Christmas. The HD DVD camp swore up and down that people would be grabbing them on impulse thus turning the HD war in Toshiba's favor and we all know how that turned out.

It's not a 1:1 analogy, but close enough for discussion. It's pretty clear that people are generally not interested in the HD consoles. Even at a $50 premium over the cheapest 360, the Wii sold 2x the 360 and more than both HD consoles combined. You can talk "impulse" all you want, but even at $199 people are not going to buy what they don't want. Especially in today's economy.

The Xbox 360 sold 511k in November, 2006 and 607k in December, 2006 despite massive shortages and a price tag of $299-$399. That's a total of 1,118,000 units across two months.

The Xbox 360 sold 770K in November, 2007 and 1.1 Million in December, 2007 at a price tag of $279-350 (or $449 if you include the elite. That's a total of 1,870,000 units across two months.

You really think the Xbox 360 is going to sale less then 2006 or 2007 with a much more affordable price point and an equally solid lineup of games?

 

[vanguardian1]

You really think the Xbox 360 is going to sale less then 2006 or 2007 with a much more affordable price point and an equally solid lineup of games?

Considering the whole situation, I think that it isn't easy to say either way. Probably the safe assumption would be that it would sell about the same as last year.

 

[Sho_Nuff82]

Considering the whole situation, I think that it isn't easy to say either way. Probably the safe assumption would be that it would sell about the same as last year.

Nah.

 

[NemesisPrime]

Considering the whole situation, I think that it isn't easy to say either way. Probably the safe assumption would be that it would sell about the same as last year.

ROFL.... I think we will see the 360 sell ridiculous numbers this XMas (but still not Wii levels

 

[Stumpokapow]

More than the 450k it had sold at the end of july?

shipped, worldwide.

A little learning is a dangerous thing; Drink deep or taste not the Pierian spring.

 

[harSon]

Considering the whole situation, I think that it isn't easy to say either way. Probably the safe assumption would be that it would sell about the same as last year.

With a $199-299 price point, Gears of War 2 launching in November, and a competitive casual games lineup? But I guess the current state of the economy could play a roll despite it not effecting the industry thus far.

 

[Aaron Strife]

shipped, worldwide.

We've seen no major price drops on Boom Blox or clearance sales, so it can't be selling that badly. If it was, retailers wouldn't be buying more shipments.

 

[Saint10118]

We've seen no major price drops on Boom Blox or clearance sales, so it can't be selling that badly. If it was, retailers wouldn't be buying more shipments.

Not that your point doesn't stand but just to be fair it just had a $10.00 price drop to $40 (5 months since its debut compared to a game like IU that had a $20 drop 5 weeks after)

 

[Deku]

The thing people have to remember is we're essentially talking about 2010 here. Do you think that the PS3 AND 360 will both be selling at their current level, and do you think the Wii is going to still be at IT'S current level? I'm not saying we're going to see a fundamental change in the landscape (I'd still say Wii>>>>>>360>>PS3) but I could honestly see one or both of the HD consoles selling respectably, and I fully expect Wii's sales to be beyond solid, but not to SUSTAIN the kind of levels we've seen up to this point. 450-500k, which, in a major major software month is beatable (not easily, but beatable)

So Gobron, wait till 2010 is the new tagline for the fanatical HD fans who are stuck in last gen's mindset, nevermind HD owners are already enjoying our platforms and will be ready move on by 2010-2011.

Your analysis is a pipe dream pretending to be a prediction.

 

[ksamedi]

I'm pretty sure a Wii motion+ designed lightsaber game for the Wii would detroy the sales of any other Star Wars game before it.

 

[charlequin]

What happened was that people who had bought that console went out and bought those games, not the other way around. People buy consoles, and within that framework buy games. Thats my "theory" as to why consoles with unanimously better lineups (DC vs PS2, the early years) can fail.

Yeah, except the problem with this theory is that it's totally wrong. Consoles sell on on two things: existing library, and the promise of library to come.

Why did PS2 trounce the DC? Because for one, the idea that the DC had a "unanimously better lineup" is silly -- many of the DC's lauded games are niche titles with a limited audience, rather than games that the broad mass of gamers would be interested in.

And more importantly, it's because people (correctly) identified that the PS2 would have superior library offerings in the areas they were interested in. Sports? Everyone knew PS2 would have Madden. RPGs? Everyone knew PS2 would have DQ and FF. Racing? Gran Turismo, y'alls. It's the promise of these titles that drove the PS2's sales, not any kind of factor related to the console itself.

Similarly, the Wii sells better on the same basis: the broad market is most interested in local multiplayer titles, family titles, and the other types of games that Wii offers, and therefore buys the console that offers those titles.

I had considered this, but I don't think it applies. It would apply if the terms "core" and "casual" had were well understood and clearly denoted, but they're not. Many arguments about Wii and "core" games break down rapidly as people insist that Madden is a core game, or Mario isn't now but it used to be, etc. etc. I would argue that 6-7 clear and well defined labels are in fact simpler than 2 labels with nebulous and controversial definitions.

Right. Probably the best thing to do is identify different demographics and then talk about which of these each individual game appeals to. For example, take Madden: it's a game that serious gaming enthusiasts play, but also one that people who are football enthusiasts (but don't play almost any other video games) play. You can't fairly classify it as a "core" or "casual" game because in reality, both demographics are playing it.

I'm not saying we're going to see a fundamental change in the landscape (I'd still say Wii>>>>>>360>>PS3) but I could honestly see one or both of the HD consoles selling respectably, and I fully expect Wii's sales to be beyond solid, but not to SUSTAIN the kind of levels we've seen up to this point.

Why would the race tighten during this generation when the historical trend is for the differences between the winning console and its also-rans to expand in situations where the winner is up by an insurmountable margin early on?

 

[Gaborn]

So Gobron, wait till 2010 is the new tagline for the fanatical HD fans who are stuck in last gen's mindset, nevermind HD owners are already enjoying our platforms and will be ready move on by 2010-2011.

Your analysis is a pipe dream pretending to be a prediction.

Wait... you think I'm a HD fan? Dude, I'm a rabidly pro-Nintendo fan boy... I mean... wow. Take a good look at my posting history, I've long been a Nintendo supporter. Sony and Microsoft do nothing for me, but in looking ahead I don't think that sales exist in a vacuumn. We're in unprecedented territory and it's always possible that the Wii can continue as it is, especially with a very strong software line up to accentuate the sales stalwarts.

However, eventually sales level off, Nintendo will find a way to meet demand and things will settle to a more "normal" level where a console is generally available most of the time. What this means in practical terms is an end to shortages, not some insane "everywhere, walk in on launch day" nonsense. It means that there will no longer be lines at 6 am waiting for a store with a new shipment to open. It means that impulse buyers won't be fighting the odds to find one.

I can see Sony and Microsoft dropping the price in the mean time to try to spur some life (Sony sometime next year when their need for "profitability" is offset enough by their need for survival) into their sales, and that WILL help. There's a very good reason that Sony sold the majority of their PS2s below $200, and that's because people can't afford and won't want to afford consoles at that price, even ignoring the fact that they apparently don't care about the PS3's software much either.

All I'm saying is that I'm assuming sometime Nintendo is going to level off it's sales a bit, I don't think predicting that to happen in 2010 is being a "fanatical HD fan" (I hope not, I don't have time to get a "second job"), and my prediction is when they do they'll sell 450-500k a month in the US. Sony? Microsoft? It should be better for them than this, simply because lower price points can open doors when you're not appealing to consumers by catching their imagination with your innovation.

rabid HD fan... I mean.... wow.

Charlequin - I think that the race will tighten because I believe that the Wii is "peaking" (in a sustained sense) right now. For a better illustration of what I mean I look at Japan. The DS broke every record imaginable and is still selling quite well compared to most things, and will continue to build and build and be uncatchable. But eventually it came down because NOTHING can sell the levels it did throughout it's life time. When I'm talking about the Wii leveling off I'm talking about reaching a saturation point enough that consoles are going to stay on the shelves for more than a day or two, but still sell enough that it's going to beat everything else every month, with the exception of major software launches where the streams have a chance of crossing.

Edit: Hell, I'm such a RABID "HD fan boy" that I even asked in late April if Wii Sports was the most important game since the Pong era!

 

[dammitmattt]

It's not a 1:1 analogy, but close enough for discussion. It's pretty clear that people are generally not interested in the HD consoles. Even at a $50 premium over the cheapest 360, the Wii sold 2x the 360 and more than both HD consoles combined. You can talk "impulse" all you want, but even at $199 people are not going to buy what they don't want. Especially in today's economy.

Here's another way of looking at it:

People bought almost as many HD consoles as they did Wiis, so people ARE interested in the HD consoles. It's obvious that the PS3 and 360 are going after nearly the exact same market (minus Blu-Ray, of course) and if you look at them as one entity, they're almost doing as well as the Wii.

I think sales are fairly healthy all-around.

 

[farnham]

Here's another way of looking at it:

People bought almost as many HD consoles as they did Wiis, so people ARE interested in the HD consoles. It's obvious that the PS3 and 360 are going after nearly the exact same market (minus Blu-Ray, of course) and if you look at them as one entity, they're almost doing as well as the Wii.

I think sales are fairly healthy all-around.

yeah because the 360 launched one year earlier and garned a lot of support from hardcore gamers

 

[freddy]

Well the 360 didn't sell as much as expected at the so-called impulse buy price. The Wii however is starting to look nigh unstoppable. It's no wonder that "the HD consoles" is being used more often these days and you even see some company execs talking it up. It's either team up or be irrelevant.

 

[Opiate]

Come now, I think Matt has a point.

I don't think anyone argues anymore that PS3 and 360 aren't after nearly identical consumers. Since the launch of the Wii, worldwide total shipments of the Wii are 29.62 as of the end of August. In that time frame, PS3 and 360 have combined shipments of 28.71.

In reality, this is awful for Sony and Microsoft, because they're viciously fighting for a minority share in the market while Nintendo gets the lion's share uncontested, but that's not our problem. We're looking at the consumer side right now.


Whatever you believe the cause of this is, it's fair to say that there is non-negligible portion of consumers who prefer the "PS3/360" experience to the Wii one. That's worth noting.

 

[Version 3.0]

By the way, is it piracy or something else that holds back DS's software sales? Seems a bit crazy that a system that has LTD sales of more than 20 million and still sells 500K a month, but still doesn't have a single piece of software that sold more than 158k.

You mean in a single month, right? Even so, I don't think that's right: didn't Phantom Hourglass do more than that its first month? Pokemon certainly did.

Aside from that, though, broader software sales (vs. extremely high sales for fewer titles) is just a function of demographic and the size of the library. A larger installed base doesn't mean equally higher sales for the biggest hits (ie. 3x installed base <> 3x sales for one game). It results in better sales across the whole library. In other words, instead of everyone who owns the system buying Mario, Halo, or whatever, while Game X bombs, a lot of people buy Mario or Halo, but Game X does okay.

 

[leroy hacker]

However, eventually sales level off, Nintendo will find a way to meet demand and things will settle to a more "normal" level where a console is generally available most of the time. What this means in practical terms is an end to shortages, not some insane "everywhere, walk in on launch day" nonsense. It means that there will no longer be lines at 6 am waiting for a store with a new shipment to open. It means that impulse buyers won't be fighting the odds to find one.

I can see Sony and Microsoft dropping the price in the mean time to try to spur some life (Sony sometime next year when their need for "profitability" is offset enough by their need for survival) into their sales, and that WILL help. There's a very good reason that Sony sold the majority of their PS2s below $200, and that's because people can't afford and won't want to afford consoles at that price, even ignoring the fact that they apparently don't care about the PS3's software much either.

All I'm saying is that I'm assuming sometime Nintendo is going to level off it's sales a bit, I don't think predicting that to happen in 2010 is being a "fanatical HD fan" (I hope not, I don't have time to get a "second job"), and my prediction is when they do they'll sell 450-500k a month in the US. Sony? Microsoft? It should be better for them than this, simply because lower price points can open doors when you're not appealing to consumers by catching their imagination with your innovation.

Your prediction flies in the face of history. It is the less successful consoles whose sales eventually stop while the most successful keeps selling. Look at this month's NPD charts-there's only one last gen console in it, and it wasn't one of the losers.

 

[C.T.]

What he meant was that FF XIII being on two platforms means that any XIII hardware bump will be split, lessening the chance of one/both being top hardware for the month.

I understood it as him saying overall sales will be disappointing because FFXIII lost it's status as a ps3 exclusive. It will be interesting to see how it will do. If HD hardware gains momentum or not etc by that time.

 

[dammitmattt]

Come now, I think Matt has a point.

I don't think anyone argues anymore that PS3 and 360 aren't after nearly identical consumers. In reality, this is awful for Sony and Microsoft, because they're viciously fighting for a minority share in the market while Nintendo gets the lionshare uncontested, but that's not our problem. We're looking at the consumer side right now.

As a general truth worldwide since the Wii's launch, 55-60% of video game purchasers have purchased Wiis, while 40-45% of purchasers have chosen the Xbox 360 or Playstation 3.

Whatever you believe the cause of this is, it's fair to say that there is non-negligible portion of consumers who prefer the "PS3/360" experience to the Wii one. That's worth noting.

We know what percentage of next-gen hardware people have purchased since the Wii's launch as you estimated above. Do we know the percentages for software?

 

[Gaborn]

Your prediction flies in the face of history. It is the less successful consoles whose sales eventually stop while the most successful keeps selling. Look at this month's NPD charts-there's only one last gen console in it, and it wasn't one of the losers.

I'm NOT predicting the Wii's sales to "stop" I'm predicting it's going to become more widely available than 2 hours (or 2 days according to some people in the retail musings thread) after a shipment arrives. I'm saying the Wii's sales will normalize, and that DOES have precedent. Every previous console leader in history has had periods of selling out, and periods where even if it was leading every month you could STILL find it in stores on a consistent basis (with the possible exception of the holiday season). The Wii is unique in many ways but honestly, saying that it's not going to be selling out like it is now in mid fall 2010 is not exactly rocket science.

 

[Opiate]

We know what percentage of next-gen hardware people have purchased since the Wii's launch as you estimated above. Do we know the percentages for software?

I could look that up, Matt, but that's going to be misleading. I think it's probably a fair comparison now, but when the Wii was at 3 million consoles after Christmas 06 and the 360 was at 9 million, that gave the 360 a heavy advantage for quite some time. If we're trying to do a fair comparison between the two, I don't think those early days are very representative.

I'll look in to recent software shipments to see how those compare. But again, hardware shipments since the launch of the Wii have been 29.62 for the Wii, and 28.71 for the PS3/360. It's split almost exactly down the middle.

Again, just so it's clear I'm not being unfair here, we all know that Nintendo's half is much more profitable, and we also know that it's a completely uncontested half instead of one split between two violently opposed competitors. But for the moment, we're looking from the consumer side, and those concerns are irrelevant from that angle.

 

[CreatureX3]

 

[Count Dookkake]

Remember the tears when that magazine was published?

"It's too early to call!"

:lol

 

[Gaborn]

Remember the tears when that magazine was published?

"It's too early to call!"

:lol

It was AMAZING the sheer level of denial some people had. Still though, the best NPD ever was February 2007, I still have it bookmarked for the sheer lulzitude.

 

[Opiate]

Got some numbers for you, Matt. Last quarter:

PS3: 22.8 million units of software shipped.
Wii: 40.4 million units of software shipped.

Microsoft does not release quarterly software shipment figures, but their analysis does explicitly state that last quarter (that is, Apr-Jun 08) saw more software shipments than the same time last year. In other words, it is practically impossible that the 360 sold less software last quarter than the PS3 did. It very likely sold considerably more.

Using those conservative estimates (PS3 = 360 software sales), we get a total of 45.6 million PS3/360 software units shipped, and 40.4 million Wii software units shipped. I wouldn't be surprised if the PS3/360 total were closer to 50 or 55 million, but even with my very conservative estimates, Ps3/360 is still shipping more software.

 

[leroy hacker]

I'm NOT predicting the Wii's sales to "stop" I'm predicting it's going to become more widely available than 2 hours (or 2 days according to some people in the retail musings thread) after a shipment arrives. I'm saying the Wii's sales will normalize, and that DOES have precedent. Every previous console leader in history has had periods of selling out, and periods where even if it was leading every month you could STILL find it in stores on a consistent basis (with the possible exception of the holiday season). The Wii is unique in many ways but honestly, saying that it's not going to be selling out like it is now in mid fall 2010 is not exactly rocket science.

You're saying that increased Wii supplies will decrease the amount of sellouts, which is logical, but you also said that it will cause the sales to "level off", which is illogical, and that the sales of the competitors will go up. That isn't what happens at the end of generations. The losing system's sales drop off dramatically no matter how far the price is dropped-look at the N64, GC, or Xbox, while the winner keeps on going.

Edit: I notice you didn't mention increased supplies but rather decreased demand so your statement is not illogical. It is still ignorant of console market history however.

 

[Count Dookkake]

It was AMAZING the sheer level of denial some people had. Still though, the best NPD ever was February 2007, I still have it bookmarked for the sheer lulzitude.

This is a good one...

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=5813137&postcount=6

 

[mr.beers]

There is not a girl in that pic I wouldn't do.

 

[Gaborn]

This is a good one...

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=5813137&postcount=6

This is better

 

[Dirtbag]

It was AMAZING the sheer level of denial some people had. Still though, the best NPD ever was February 2007, I still have it bookmarked for the sheer lulzitude.

OMG I forgot how awesome that thread was. :lol

 

[gkryhewy]

This is a good one...

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=5813137&postcount=6

That sounded sarcastic to me :lol

 

[Dr. Kitty Muffins]

Does anyone know what Tales of Vesperia sold?

 

[gkryhewy]

Does anyone know what Tales of Vesperia sold?

Someone said 37k

 

[Count Dookkake]

That sounded sarcastic to me :lol

Well, yeah. What I found funny about it was how prescient his dismissal of Home and LBP was. The thread is almost 2 years old and nothing has come close to disproving his snarky sentiment!

 

[Gaborn]

Well, yeah. What I found funny about it was how prescient his dismissal of Home and LBP was. The thread is almost 2 years old and nothing has come close to disproving his snarky sentiment!

More and more I think the PS3 is reminiscent of the N64 rather than the GC. The N64 came in with high expectations being the popular successor to a market leading console. It had an unusual format that made development costs higher than it's competitors. It suffered from delays. It had a lack of exclusives, etc.

 

[Dr. Kitty Muffins]

Someone said 37k

It is by far the best JRPG of this gen!

 

[gkryhewy]

Well, yeah. What I found funny about it was how prescient his dismissal of Home and LBP was. The thread is almost 2 years old and nothing has come close to disproving his snarky sentiment!

I think he was obviously right two years ago. Anyone with an ounce of foresight could see the same outcomes - the trends of this generation were already well-established by that point.

I was mocked for suggesting that Sony might scrap or scale back Home once it became obvious even to them that it wasn't going to expand their market.

I mean, really :lol

 

[Firestorm]

Someone said 37k

37k this month, 33k last month, 70k ltd in usa. It's not bad for a Tales title. Better than the PS2 and PSP titles in NA. Worse than Symphonia obviously. Will be worse than Dawn of the New World.

 

[Count Dookkake]

I think he was obviously right two years ago. Anyone with an ounce of foresight could see the same outcomes - the trends of this generation were already well-established by that point.

I was mocked for suggesting that Sony might scrap or scale back Home once it became obvious even to them that it wasn't going to expand their market.

I mean, really :lol

You may see that and I may see that, but there are people who still say "anything can happen."

Spoiler

I think Home will be scrapped.

 

[AndresON777]

It is by far the best JRPG of this gen!

It's a fucking shame Lost Odyssey (generic and boring) has sold so much and ToV is such a classic and is seeing these kinds of sales.

I hope it does well on ps3 when it's ported.

 

[Gaborn]

You may see that and I may see that, but there are people who still say "anything can happen."

Spoiler

I think Home will be scrapped.

I'm not sure they CAN scrap Home at this point without getting killed even more than they are (and rightly so). Instead they might put it in a Duke Nukem Forever type limbo.