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Phil Spencer on what the hell is happening in the games industry and why exclusives have become a risky business

Taycan77

Neophyte
In time Microsoft may well become a 3rd party powerhouse.

But history will not be kind to Spencer - the question will always be asked why MS didn't go down this route a decade earlier - and why did they waste so much money on the dead end that is Gamepass.

There will also be a footnote on how so many games journalists took a passive role in the steady decline of Xbox as a console brand. Oh, and the role shills and influencers played in this farce.
 
Good interview (at least what was quoted here) and he’s right, budgets are too high and the industry isn’t growing. I know the hate boners are out for Phil and Xbox but it’s true for everyone and has been for awhile.

I also like that he points out he doesn’t get the free pass to run a money losing business just because it’s Microsoft and that Xbox is profitable.
 
"This many consoles"... being two?
Yes, what Xbox offers clearly isn't appealing enough. If it were, they would capture market share from PlayStation (like they did in the 360). Neither company will (financially) win in that case.

When Microsoft entered the fray, console gaming was growing.
and the PC market was abandoned and there was not mobile gaming. (big indicator for Wii´s sales )
but up until then, console sales continued to expand with each generation.
So, according to google.

PS2 + Xbox ≈ 179
PS3 + Xbox 360 ≈ 171
PS4 + Xbone ≈ 175

so that has been the market size for Play Station and Xbox.

There was a time when four primary consoles on the market was just fine.
was it?

So, before launch, there was nothing to indicate the Xbox One "shouldn't have even existed"
there was: MS hadn't made any money with the OG Xbox and/or Xbox 360 + RROD


That's a silly statement: it made perfect sense for Microsoft to continue in the console space
and thats why the bet towards Kinect, Skype, CoD and TV? MS had the brilliant idea to go for the mainstream audience (they were expecting to sell 100M consoles just in the United States). They tried to unify the Xbox /Windows UI. They had like a TV production division or something like that. Remember their slogan:

Xbox One: The Complete All-in-One Games and Entertainment System​


- the industry was happily supporting the PS3 and Xbox 360, with the Wii a side consideration.
and the market share between PS3/360 was roughly 50% for MS this was not enough to make money. and we all know what was happening to Sony.


The issue is that the industry hit a ceiling but continued to ramp up expenditures anyway. It seems there's only so many people who want an expensive box under their TVs to play games, but the infinite growth requirements for publically traded companies mean they need to extract more money from the same people anyway. So, the platforms cannibalised one another's marketshare, ramped up microtransactions, increased prices, and other dubious practices, all to force the illusion of growth. And sure, revenues are up, but at the end of the day, the generational console sales aren't growing. And if your business is console gaming, that's a problem when development costs double and triple.
To whom do these conditions affect the most?..yep, the weakest link, the one with a smaller install base....Xbox. Play station on the other hand makes a profit. Xbox doesn't.


Xbox is trying to find a way through the ceiling the industry seems to have hit without dumping everything into live service loot boxes. Good decisions or not, that's what they're trying to do.
No. I will try to explain this quickly.


MS didn't invest in first-party studios/New IPs in the 360 gen. > When the Xbox One disaster happened, they didn't have the infrastructure to produce content (like Sony did in the PS3 era) > so what do you have? A console without exclusives and not enough budget to compete.

from our beloved friend jez corden:
"I've been told that the budget for exclusive publishing deals, which previously led to games like Quantum Break and Ryse, has been low, and Xbox has been using the budget it does have to place an emphasis on other areas"


this in turn just ended up hurting the brand. After Xbox canceled several games (ScaleBound, Fable Legends, Phantom Dust ) and disappointing releases (Crackdown 3 particularly) The sentiment toward the brand was at an all-time low
> Phil Spencer becomes the "savior"



Now, he emphasizes Game Pass and pivots strongly toward that business model, even promising Day One releases of first-party games. However, there is still a lackluster and disappointing cadence in the release of first-party content > PC Ports > Buys studios and Publishers, spend closer to 100B!! in 5 years.


This is the insight:


Money in the console business is not made by the games you make, the money (the big bucks) is made by that 30% cut. BUT for you to earn that 30% cut, you need to make your platform/storefront stronger and bigger. and how do you do that? You use your exclusive content which has to be GOTY or massively popular to attract consumers which in turn buy in your store. They Fail at that basic equation. But in top of that, they pivoted their brand and ecosystem towards a subscription model that encourages people to NOT BUY GAMES. aka to not generate that 30% cut

Xbox is already on Consoles, PC and Mobile/TVs (streaming app). But the brand is so fucked up that no one gives a shit. and the massive IPs they have acquired are already established across the market segments outside Xbox (they are not going to be associated/ or help the Xbox Brand).


in other other words:
they are not
Trying to find a way through the ceiling the industry
this implies that they have acquired the ceiling of consoles, but they LOST IT.

what they are trying to do is: TO MAKE MONEY. Because they fucked up so hard the dynamic of the 30% cut incentive inside their ecosystem, they NEED to put their games in other platforms. and now they have spent 100B dollars!!! and they need to make that money back......they are so fucked.
 
Thats your fault lmao.

I started my kid on my 3ds playing zelda link between worlds. took him a year to get it and make progress. by the time he was six, he was able to beat some dungeons. Got him a switch and raised him on Mario, Luigi and more zelda games. When he went to trash like minecraft and robolox a couple of years later, he just didnt find them fulfilling enough. Now he plays robolox with his friends to socialize every now and then but would rather play street fighter, spiderman, botw, totk, and other AAA games.

apparently all his friends are playing fortnite too but im not letting him play that trash. you control the trash they play.
There's some truth to this. My daughter has barely ever had access to garbage tier mobile attention siphoning junk. She will jam out on Switch, Playstation, PC. She's laying in bed right now playing GBA SP (Advance Wars).

It's like books, education, anything else. Tailor and build those interests. Sure, eventually they will develop further in their own ways and in what they desire, but you are providing the initial food.

But on the same token Phil is right that young kids are playing "whatever" en mass.
 

phaedrus

Member
He has completely ruined the once awesome Xbox name and now all he wants to do is claim the industry isn't growing so he can implement the direction HE wants the industry to go in! Guy is a snake oil salesman and many seem to constantly fall for his bullshit.

7y5U6jf.jpg
 

ZehDon

Member
Yes, what Xbox offers clearly isn't appealing enough. If it were, they would capture market share from PlayStation (like they did in the 360). Neither company will (financially) win in that case.
Did you read what I wrote when you typed this?
and the PC market was abandoned and there was not mobile gaming. (big indicator for Wii´s sales )
... what?
So, according to google.

PS2 + Xbox ≈ 179
PS3 + Xbox 360 ≈ 171
PS4 + Xbone ≈ 175
You're missing a few consoles there, pal.
Yes?
there was: MS hadn't made any money with the OG Xbox and/or Xbox 360 + RROD
You've discovered the concept of loss leading for brand establishment and the nature of hardware faults. Happy reading.
and thats why the bet towards Kinect, Skype, CoD and TV?
Yes, that's why.
and the market share between PS3/360 was roughly 50% for MS this was not enough to make money. and we all know what was happening to Sony.
Actually, the RROD ate their thin profit margins.
To whom do these conditions affect the most?..yep, the weakest link, the one with a smaller install base....Xbox. Play station on the other hand makes a profit. Xbox doesn't.
Correct.
No. I will try to explain this quickly...
You didn't explain anything. Xbox is trying to find a way through the ceiling of the console industry. That's what they're doing. Sega dropped out entirely and Nintendo went handheld. Xbox is looking for its own solution. Hell, Sony itself is already moving outside the market towards PC because they simply cannot grow the home console industry.
 
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Megatron

Member

Phil Spencer on what the hell is happening in the games industry and why exclusives have become a risky business*​


*for xbox
If you think this isn’t happening to Sony too, you have your head buried in the sand. It happened to MS first because they have a smaller user base and so MS put their games on PC first, but now Sony has to do it too. You my some day see Sony games on other consoles too.
 

Megatron

Member
Sony didn't change anything with their business strategy since the PS4 and doing just fine. This guy sucks ball, I'm surprised Microsoft haven't sacked this guy yet. Phil's a failure. I still don't understand why this guy always talk like Xbox is the market leader, shit is cringey as hell.
That’s right! You’d never see a playstation game on PC! Sony‘s games are always exclusive to Sony consoles and that has never changed!
 
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You didn't explain anything. Xbox is trying to find a way through the ceiling of the console industry. That's what they're doing.

rephrase your statement then.

The one who is trying to find a way through the ceiling of the console industry is Play Station.

Xbox lost the console market. two different things.


Sega dropped out entirely and Nintendo went handheld. Xbox is looking for its own solution.
xbox is looking for a solution not because they dominate the console market but because they lost that market.

... two different things. that's what you are not understanding


Hell, Sony itself is already moving outside the market towards PC because they simply cannot grow the home console industry.
moving outside the market? they own the console market.

again:
30% CUT

quick examples:
let's say Helldivers 2 has sold 10M copies at 40USD. 60/40 split in favor of Steam

That means on steams has sold 6M * $40 = 240M then we take out that 30% cut that valve gets, Sony gets the 70%= 168M.

on PS5 is 4M * 40$ and 100% of the transaction = 160M

Sony makes almost the same amount of money with a smaller split. and this is not counting the MTXs.

other example:
OkszG4f.jpg

sony gets 300 million thanks to the 30% cut Sony ain't paying the wages of mihoyo devs either.

Genshin impact IS NOT on Xbox

Sony will be as retarded as Xbox to undermine their console. I can fricking guarantee you that if sony sees a damage to their console business due to putting their games on PC they will backtrack they fuck out of that initiative as soon as possible.

So:

The console market has certains size, that's size is statics, around 175-180M

Play Station and Xbox have been fighting for that pie, Play Station has won every time; but the economics of the industry are getting harder.

the issue then is not that the market is not growing (that's the nature of the market)

the issue here is that Xbox has falied to gain market share. Sony makes actual profit, Xbox doesn't.

again, two different things.


to be extremely e clear:

The Xbox issue is not (the console market is not growing) but the console market has rejected Xbox.
 
If you think this isn’t happening to Sony too, you have your head buried in the sand. It happened to MS first because they have a smaller user base and so MS put their games on PC first, but now Sony has to do it too. You my some day see Sony games on other consoles too.
another ignorant.
zFI2d8M.jpg
 

blue velvet

Member
That’s right! You’d never see a playstation game on PC! Sony‘s games are always exclusive to Sony consoles and that has never changed!
How does that refute what I said? PC is not their major market. Porting some of the exclusives on PC did not change their business strategy which is
Develop high budget and highly rated single player games + released them full priced physically/digitally = profit

Imagine if their God of War or Spiderman games were released on PS Plus on day one? Microsoft tryna reinvent the wheel and also bait the competition into following them with their Gamepass slop, people don't consume videogames like a movie or a music streaming.
 
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Megatron

Member
How does that refute what I said? PC is not their major market. Porting some of the exclusives on PC did not change their business strategy which is
Developed high budget and highly rated single player games + released them physically/digitally = profit

Imagine if their God of War or Spiderman games were released on PS Plus on day one? Microsoft tryna reinvent the wheel and also bait the competition into following them with their Gamepass slop, people don't consume videogames like a movie or a music streaming.
Of course it changed their strategy. They never used to release games on PC. Until they did. It’s the realities of the current game market. Sony has to increasingly go elsewhere to get the sales to make their games profitable. It’s really not impossible that you could see some Sony games on a Nintendo system in 10 years.
 

ZehDon

Member
rephrase your statement then.

The one who is trying to find a way through the ceiling of the console industry is Play Station.

Xbox lost the console market. two different things.



xbox is looking for a solution not because they dominate the console market but because they lost that market.

... two different things. that's what you are not understanding



moving outside the market? they own the console market.
Ah, I see the problem: you want to present the console industry as "PlayStation won! PlayStation won! Xbox lost!". This demonstrates a lack of understanding of Sony's problem. Ask yourself: if Sony "won", why are they trying to move outside the home console market? Surely, they're popping campaign, not laying off hundreds of developers, right? They're now spending USD$300m per game and they haven't new customers in a console generation. They're selling the same games to the same people but the cost of making those games is going up and up and up. That's why they jacked their prices; it's the only way to keep the illusion of growth.

The ceiling the industry seems to have hit is preventing competition. If we're at 150m console install for this generation, but there were still 1 billion more undecided console gamers out there waiting to buy in, there would a huge amount of room for Xbox and Nintendo to compete in. More than enough for everyone to have their niche to fuel a healthy industry. But when 200m is the entire market and 90% of them are already decided on what they're buying, there's nowhere left for anyone to go. Even if Sony captured 100% of the console market with the PS6, if they're spending $USD500m a game and taking 10 years to turn them around, they simply won't make enough money. If 100% of the market still isn't enough, then the industry as a whole has hit a ceiling. That's the ceiling Microsoft is trying to break through.
 
Ah, I see the problem: you want to present the console industry as "PlayStation won! PlayStation won! Xbox lost!".
not. but that is the reality. Even Phil Spencer said those words.

NQFaZFo.jpg

so that is not my problem buddy.

This demonstrates a lack of understanding of Sony's problem. Ask yourself: if Sony "won", why are they trying to move outside the home console market?
They are not trying to move outside home console business

your statement implies that Sony is trying to get out of the console business

"move outside" is incorrect. A better phrasing would be

Sony is trying to expand to other markets
or
sony is trying to reach other markets.
or
sony is trying to make more money outside the Playstation console.

see? There is not a lack of understanding on my end. the issue is you and the way you are phrasing your point of view.

Surely, they're popping campaign, not laying off hundreds of developers, right?
everyone is doing that.

They're now spending USD$300m per game and they haven't new customers in a console generation.
and even with those budgets their games turn a profit without PC.

They need to optimize the business, that's what heman implied by "re evaluate how we operate"

XxtQ5eh.jpg



They're selling the same games to the same people but the cost of making those games is going up and up and up. That's why they jacked their prices; it's the only way to keep the illusion of growth.
but they are growing.

DGO2DcR.jpg


PiYtQSL.jpg


Tbdf7cB.jpg

The ceiling the industry seems to have hit is preventing competition. If we're at 150m console install for this generation, but there were still 1 billion more undecided console gamers out there waiting to buy in, there would a huge amount of room for Xbox and Nintendo to compete in.
industry or console market?

If we are talking about the industry, we have 3 market segments very well established:

PC
Mobile
Console

Steaming will be complementary or subtractive.

but there were still 1 billion more undecided console gamers out there waiting to buy in
not true at all. if you are talking about emerging console markets like China, India, Africa, Korea etcetera

the number is not 1 billion is substantially lower. but that is another conversation

More than enough for everyone to have their niche to fuel a healthy industry. But when 200m is the entire market and 90% of them are already decided on what they're buying,
and what are they buying, an Xbox or a Play Station?

there's nowhere left for anyone to go.
you don't want to understand what is the actual situation.

Even if Sony captured 100% of the console market with the PS6, if they're spending $USD500m a game and taking 10 years to turn them around, they simply won't make enough money.
let's rephrase it:

if Sony captures 100% of the console market they will make all the money they can make from that market. then, they will need to find a way to make more money/grow

1. Increse prices
2. optimize business
3. expand to other markets

just to name a few.

. If 100% of the market still isn't enough, then the industry as a whole has hit a ceiling.
+
That's the ceiling Microsoft is trying to break through.

=
flawed logic


If you have 100% of something there is no more "thing" to have. aka. there is no ceiling to break trough.



as I said: we have 3 established markets

PC, Mobile and Console


Sony dominates Console Xbox dosen't.

Now, the challenge for Xbox and PS is to expand to the other two markets...that's all


the difference is that Phil spencer is trying to frame their failure as 'everyone's problem' when is just and Xbox problem. capicci?
 

ShaiKhulud1989

Gold Member
To the 'but the consoles are not growing crowd': it is obviously easier to expand outside of console space if you have at least one market cornered. Both Sony and Nintendo can expand to mobile or PC because the have a safety cushion in form of a traditional console market with 30% cut. It is also worth noting that console is hardware too. Hardware that is is not locked to your platform. Sony is making crazy money on gamepads, headsets and other accessories that work flawlessly with PCs and Macs.

Microsoft Gaming is trying to poke at every market possible and everywhere it's dead last. PC? It's basically Valve's territory and MS shares 30% cut with Steam. PC Gamepass app is a torture to use and still full of strange glitches. Mobile? Minecraft, maybe, but it wasn't Xbox product to begin with. Consoles for MS are just flatlined. And it's all Phil's and MS fault. They simply lack any sort of dedication on every market they are trying to win over. When numbers are getting sour MS gaming usually flip-flops their entire business model to appeal to MS leadership and move goalposts, but so far this has done nothing to actually grow the actual userbase and net profit.

The sooner they'll go with being a big 3rd party - the better. This Spenser-whining 'but muh bruh the industry is in trouble too' is getting simply pathetic.
 

clarky

Gold Member
Last I checked, 30% of all revenues sold on the PS Store goes to Sony. The revenue they generate from this, not even including DLC etc will be enough to develop about a dozen first-party titles.

As far as im aware SIE"s operating profit was around 5%. down from over 30%

GTA wont change that much.
 

DrFigs

Member
As far as im aware SIE"s operating profit was around 5%. down from over 30%

GTA wont change that much.
I don't see why that would be true. if sony's profits were down because they released 1 first party game in 2023, or because of a general decrease in software sales, then gta 6 will 100% make up for that in 2025.
 

Humdinger

Gold Member
Money in the console business is not made by the games you make, the money (the big bucks) is made by that 30% cut. BUT for you to earn that 30% cut, you need to make your platform/storefront stronger and bigger. and how do you do that? You use your exclusive content which has to be GOTY or massively popular to attract consumers which in turn buy in your store. They Fail at that basic equation. But in top of that, they pivoted their brand and ecosystem towards a subscription model that encourages people to NOT BUY GAMES. aka to not generate that 30% cut.

That's a good insight, well phrased. I've never heard it put that way.
 
"!!Xbox is not selling because the console market is dying!!"


Yet, you have people like Phil and that Judge in the Activision decision saying the console market was shrinking, yet the PS4 comfortably outperformed the PS3, and the Switch is one of the best-selling consoles of all time. The PS5 is on its way to outselling the PS4 if it can keep up with demand. The Switch 2 will most likely sell over 100m units.

If you have a library full of games and you respect your audience, you will sell consoles.
 
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Pelta88

Member
If you think this isn’t happening to Sony too, you have your head buried in the sand. It happened to MS first because they have a smaller user base and so MS put their games on PC first, but now Sony has to do it too. You my some day see Sony games on other consoles too.

I'm not sure if it's intentional but you sound like an XB influencer, a few weeks before XB announced "4" of their games were launching on PS.
 

MacReady13

Member
the difference is that Phil spencer is trying to frame their failure as 'everyone's problem' when is just and Xbox problem. capicci?
You said it better than I TRIED saying it before! Phil is trying to make Xbox's problems EVERYONE's fucking problems! The console market has been lost so he goes around telling everyone it has peaked and there's no room for growth. No- you lost the console war so now Xbox NEEDS to move elsewhere. Gamepass was his last grasp at trying to win the console war and it failed spectacularly even with him having most gaming journo's wanking over it being the best value in gaming...

Look, games spending has gone crazy. the triple A space is a joke at the moment and the sooner these companies realise the vast majority of us are content playing indies/double A games the better. Did we really need Sony to spend $300 million on Spiderman 2? That is just crazy money for a very middling game that quite frankly didn't reach the heights it needed to. There are FAR better games out there that cost far less to make. The gaming space at the moment is a bloated mess (much like Hollywood) and i'm hoping it goes through a crash so these greedy and stupid companies get taught the lesson they deserve.
 

clarky

Gold Member
sony has spent a lot of money: Bungie, GaaS initiative, bigger budgets. The margins should be be higher. Being this small is not a product of the market suddenly not buying consoles or not buying games (that's an Xbox issue)
Absolutely. That was kinda my point though.
 

zedinen

Member
None of this matters when your profit margins are almost non-existent.

Walmart, Amazon, PlayStation ... Their success is built on low margins and high capital turnovers.

Zghn31x.jpeg


As far as im aware SIE"s operating profit was around 5%. down from over 30%

PlayStation operating margin (6.50% in FY23) is above its own historical average (6.17% since 1994)

Margins are irrelevant when your annualized average rate of revenue growth is 15% and there is little capital to remunerate.

PlayStation NOPAT margin (FY22) = 4.66%

Required NOPAT margin (FY22) = 3.36%

WACC x (Capital / Revenue) = 0.12 x 0.28= 3.36%

GTA wont change that much.

FY24 will be the beggining of the "harvest period" for the PS5.

The “harvest period” refers to the phase of a product’s life cycle when SIE cut expenses to reap maximum profits.

Helldivers 2 , GTA etc will boost profits to record highs .

And Totoki will invest PS5 record profits in buybacks, dividends, Music and Pictures.


overpaying for Bungie is making SIE operating profit to be around 7% instead.

Losses from hardware, R&D expenses, D&A (non-cash expenses), and expenses associated with M&A

FY22 (Millions of yen)
R&D 271,145
D&A 87,201
M&A 54,000

FY21 (Millions of yen)
R&D 175,677
D&A 61,219
 

Hudo

Member
The only problem I see is that Xbox HQ is not located in Philadelphia so there's a HUGE missed marketing opportunity to start Xbox Directs with "Yo, this is Phil from Philly"
 
Last I checked, 30% of all revenues sold on the PS Store goes to Sony. The revenue they generate from this, not even including DLC etc will be enough to develop about a dozen first-party titles.
Too bad at least half of them are going to be GAAS. Sony took a deep and hard look at the amount of time and money it takes their in-house studios to make games like TLoU and God of War and said...

The Office I Give Up GIF
 

ReBurn

Gold Member
I don't see why that would be true. if sony's profits were down because they released 1 first party game in 2023, or because of a general decrease in software sales, then gta 6 will 100% make up for that in 2025.
Their operating margin wasn't down because of decreased revenue. It was down because they're spending too much money. A windfall from GTA next year doesn't fix the problem they had last quarter. The game cancellations and layoffs are the step that fixes low margin right now.
 

Ogbert

Member
This bloke is a total fucking bellend.

Sunk Xbox.

Shut up you fat gremlin. No one cares about your MBA drivel.
 
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That's a good insight, well phrased. I've never heard it put that way.
It was considered common knoledge for decades until Xbox PR start to pretend it doesn't matter. Console wars are fought to make sure one's chosen console reached the size that allow the 30% 3rd party cut to be profitable. Xbox however pretended that it no longer applies and that Gamepass is everything.

Xbox was wrong. And now it is too late to go back for them.
 
The idea of constant growth is such bullshit. There is a limit of individuals on the planet, hence a limited number of customers, current and potential. Even if they were the market leaders, they would eventually hit the max amount of units/services they can sell. So no, there cannot be "constant growth", be it Sony, Nintendo, or Microsoft. This is by far the most stupid fallacy of capitalism.
If you don't grow then investors won't invest in you. You don't have investors then you don't have the cash to compete vs those that do, you can't compete you go out of business. It's survival of the fittest and inept companies who can't even make it past the investment stage are not gonna make it. If you want money you need to go to investors and use their money to make them more money, investment isnt charity.

That's reality and as usual, it ain't pretty.
 

Kerotan

Member
Hopefully the 1800 they let go are the blue haired freak's. Use this opportunity to cleanse your company Phil.
 
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