eBay Huckster
Member
Bear in mind that a +4 shift is completely within this poll's topline MoE of 5.2%.
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PoliGAF 2012 |OT3| If it's not a legitimate OT the mods have ways to shut it down
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Bear in mind that a +4 shift is completely within this poll's topline MoE of 5.2%.
AlteredBeast
Fork 'em, Sparky!
Shortly after the RNC, Romeny took the lead on Obama in the Gallup tracker for several days.
Minds were lost. Today's thread reminded me of it. I recall freaking out a bit myself. I'm older and wiser now. Some of us just got older.
People were freaking out? You mean besides the Chicken Littles? At no point in the past 6 months have I ever doubted for a second that Obama wouldn't completely destroy Romney.
Have you people never watched an election cycle? Gotta get out and start talking to real people.
I'm hearing a lot of conflicting statements on the Unemployment Rate numbers today...
Is this good news? Or is this just people getting very low wage jobs and temporary work, plus people leaving the workforce?
Ghaleon you also mentioned numbers being revised, why do they do this?
Is this good news? Or is this just people getting very low wage jobs and temporary work, plus people leaving the workforce?
Ghaleon you also mentioned numbers being revised, why do they do this?
Black Mamba
Member
Again, that's not how you calculate margin of errors of difference in numbers.
850k more people reported working in September. Jobs numbers revised up 500k the last month. These are good things.
eBay Huckster
Member
I've taken enough courses in statistics to know it's more like 10% (though granted a single basic course would be sufficient here), but
I'm trolling Diablos.
StopMakingSense
Member
Participation rate is up. Numbers get revised as hard information comes in.
I don't think he is going to be able to delfect it, he is almost certainly going to try but even his stupid 100% of the people thing he has brought up has fallen on deaf ears. He will probably bring up some crap about how Obama is the one really participating in class warfare and that he is for helping 100% of the country by giving everyone a tax cut (And thus negating something he said in the first debate...).
It began on October 1st, iirc.
What? Didn't Romney double down on the 47% comment just a couple weeks ago right after the video surfaced? I mean......... what the hell? Are there still people falling for this flip-flopping crap from him? Lord 'av mercy..
Officerrob
Banned
Diablos is a prime example why marijuana needs to be legalized
speculawyer
Member
The 6th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals clearly hates the military.
Black Mamba
Member
No, it's less than that.
Souldriver
Member
Shortly after the RNC, Romeny took the lead on Obama in the Gallup tracker for several days.
Minds were lost. Today's thread reminded me of it. I recall freaking out a bit myself. I'm older and wiser now. Some of us just got older.
It's statements like these that create a hostile atmosphere to talk about the "bad stuff" in this thread. And it's quite arrogant to say as well btw, but I guess the "
" means you're being tongue-in-cheek.... ... I hope you weren't talking about me. I've been saying since last year that I assume Obama will be president. But that doesn't mean that I don't see bad news when it's there, or that I can't predict on possible bad news coming ahead.
eBay Huckster
Member
While we're momentarily on the subject of national tracking polls, the RAND poll has Obama back up to +6 after momentarily dipping to +4.5 yesterday.
Then I must be comically misreading Silver's analysis here (and incorrectly thinking Diablos is responding to the one-day sample shifting +4 Romney).
Then I must be comically misreading Silver's analysis here (and incorrectly thinking Diablos is responding to the one-day sample shifting +4 Romney).
Officerrob
Banned
Remember when people where quoting Intrade the night of the debate saying Obama "stock" was dropping? Romney is down over 9% today
Black Mamba
Member
http://abcnews.go.com/images/PollingUnit/MOEFranklin.pdf
edit: Silver isn't wrong and I'm not saying the polls aren't within the MoE. I'm saying it's not simple double the margin of error.
Exactly. There's a *lot* of ammo for Obama to use in the next debate regarding flip flops (47% comments, Romney's *own* campaign saying Romney's plan doesn't cover pre-existing conditions, saying he won't cut taxes on the top 1% etc.) But Obama needs to *use* this ammo next time.
Doc Holliday
SPOILER: Columbus finds America
Fox, How I love you so.
Not a lot of black folks in the audience /chris rock.
Fox, How I love you so.
Joe Shlabotnik
Banned
I mean, if the entire race flipped on one debate performance then I'd say there was something fundamentally wrong with Obama's campaign besides one debate performance.
NullPointer
Member
He shouldnt be allowed to. He said that he agreed with the sentiments, just that he stated it inelegantly. NOW he says it was utterly wrong.
He needs to get called out on this, in public, and during the debates, by both Obama and Biden.
Then I'd ask what else he'd do a 180 on. Two months from now are people who bring up Romney's desire to cut PBS funding going to be attacked for misrepresenting his plans?
Dr. Pangloss
Member
Going to need a new thread soon. I'll let Diablos make up the title.
eBay Huckster
Member
Huh, so it's actually 3.89% for Romney's difference based on the equation for difference between independent samples (assuming n=463 in both cases, and assuming I actually did it properly)...
...and his gain between those samples was actually 3%.
(So we're both right, my math was just horribly wrong :lol)
PoliGAF 2012 |OT4| The Sky is Falling: Redux
NihonTiger90
Member
PoliGAF 2012 |OT4| Looking at things Unskewed
Or something along that line.
Or something along that line.
PoliGAF 2012 |OT4| TPM, 538, TPM, 538, Drudge (just for the lols), 538
Black Mamba
Member
Where are you getting s....nevermind I see you edited this, lol.
Yeah, I got 4.9% compared to the 5.4% is you just doubled the MoE. edit whoops, calculated the wrong poll hold on.
edit: Still 4.9% error. Which means the latest poll is within the MoE (which i figured, just pointing out the calculation method wasn't right).
I don't see many independents falling for this stuff. They can't trust a word he says considering his policies change with every audience. It's mostly a matter of energizing his base, who either love him for the red meat he touts or because they think he's successfully conning others into voting for him.
PhoenixDark
Banned
And while we don't have definitive numbers yet, there's at least one tracking poll that shows a clear impact in Romney's numbers going on. We'll know for sure on monday or tuesday...
Black Mamba
Member
No. Margin of errors, how do they work? There needed to be over a 5 point movement from yesterday's poll to matter.
Romney went from 43 to 44. it's insignificant. I'll repeat, today's Reuters poll was not good news for Romney if you understand how to interpret polls.
djplaeskool
Member
PoliGAF 2012 |OT4| F5thirtyeight
Officerrob
Banned
PoliGAF 2012 |OT4| Nothing is certain but death (panels), taxes (cut) and trolling
eBay Huckster
Member
hahaha jesus christ I actually forgot a decimal point in computing that, ignore that post altogether
taking p2 to be undecided/Obama and assuming both pre-debate and post-debate Ipsos polls had sample sizes of 463, that equation applied to differences in Romney's support stands as
if you're talking about the Reuters poll that's probably where the math discrepancy is coming from - that MoE is indeed roughly 4.9%
Aaron Strife
Banned
PoliGAF 2012 |OT4| Except for death panels and raising taxes, everything in life is good news for John McCain
Officerrob
Banned
The Librarian
Banned
PoliGAF |OT4| Sorry, Big Bird, but we like the funding for this thread more.
PoliGAF |OT4| "Posters" think we should still be on OT3
PoliGAF |OT4| Panic-ridden Sesame Thread
PoliGAF |OT4| Three tenths of 20,000 posts from where we should be
PoliGAF |OT4| "Posters" think we should still be on OT3
PoliGAF |OT4| Panic-ridden Sesame Thread
PoliGAF |OT4| Three tenths of 20,000 posts from where we should be
Hellsing321
Member
Hahahaha this one wins.
Black Mamba
Member
hahaha jesus christ I actually forgot a decimal point in computing that, ignore that post altogether
taking p2 to be undecided/Obama and assuming both pre-debate and post-debate Ipsos polls had sample sizes of 463, that equation applied to differences in Romney's support stands as
, or 6.37%
if you're talking about the Reuters poll that's probably where the math discrepancy is coming from - that MoE is indeed roughly 4.9%
ugh, I was doing the N = 1434 from today's poll, not yesterday'. Yesterday's sample was that small?
'Also, you don't make p2 or p1 to include undecideds. You have to leave them out to get the right MoE.
RoninChaos
Member
I think we have a winner!
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