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[Diablos]

Well at least one person said "online poll" in a dismissive way, and all the others are literally laughing it away.


Anyone being a negative nancy is automatically grouped in the Diablos and CS party. But I do think that Poligaf as of late has been very stubborn in its optimism, perhaps as a reaction to the constant panic mode of Diablos and CS.

I suggest we all prepare ourselves for some shitty poll numbers the coming days. Just.... you know, keep it in mind and don't be blind to them.

Frankly I think it makes people feel better to beat up on someone who isn't falling in line so they can continue to play the optimist. I get it, but there will be nothing to laugh about if most/all of the polls show Obama coming up short or getting very close to it.

I don't think the position is really changed -- it looks like Obama's going to lose a few points on average, which we basically knew even before the debates happened

A "few"? I thought it was surely only going to be 1-2...

 

[Atlagev]

I'm not really dismissing it -- it's clearly not good news. On the other hand, Gallup's one-point uptick means that Obama did at least minimally better yesterday than he did the same day one week before. So the verdict is mixed. Obama went right back to his previous lead in the RAND poll, also. PPP says the effect was minimal in swing states while We Ask America produced a set of numbers I find flatly unbelievable, so.

Where did PPP say this?

 

[Bam Bam Baklava]

Frankly I think it makes people feel better to beat up on someone who isn't falling in line so they can continue to play the optimist. I get it, but there will be nothing to laugh about if most/all of the polls show Obama coming up short or getting very close to it.


A "few"? I thought it was surely only going to be 1-2...

Yeah it's a few in the average of all polls. Gallup and Ras aren't even showing anything yet. Just one showing a 4 point swing so far.

 

[Incognito]

Where did PPP say this?

from a slew of tweets yesterday afternoon, i believe. check out their twitter page.

 

[el retorno]

Where did PPP say this?

Twitter last night

 

[pigeon]

It's +4 for Mitt based on this poll, most people were anticipating +1 or 2.
It's just one poll but it's not a good first sign, particularly when it's a 5 day rolling average. That means a lot of negativity towards Obama came flooding in after the debate most likely.

And yet, again, Gallup shows him with an uptick and RAND is even. So it's not just one poll, because we have three, and this is the outlier.

A "few"? I thought it was surely only going to be 1-2...

Everybody's got a margin of error. When you need over five points to get back into the race, 3 and 2 aren't all that different.

Where did PPP say this?

It was a Twitter teaser based on the first day or so, so not 100% reliable. We'll see how things actually come out on the weekend.

 

[PhoenixDark]

So that Reuters poll that everyone is dismissing. Why are we dismissing it?

Because that's how poligaf operates?

 

[Souldriver]

And yet, again, Gallup shows him with an uptick and RAND is even. So it's not just one poll, because we have three, and this is the outlier.

If we have only 3 polls, I doubt you can call any of them an outlier.

Both Diablos as some others are jumping to conclusions. We can make predictions on how things will turn out (that's what Poligaf is for), but just saying "the trend is negative/positive" is something we cannot conclude as of yet.

Yesterday I thought the polls wouldn't change much. Today I'm feeling less optimistic and fear for some baaad polls the coming days. I hope I'm wrong. I don't want to worry for the coming 30 days.

 

[Dr. Pangloss]

We keep tip-toeing around the real question, which is what kind of weight do you assign the political events that have happened recently? For instance on a 10 point scale with 10 being very important and 1 having no effect, how would you weigh the following:

Scenario - My Weight

The "47%" comment - 9

Winning the first debate - 4

Unemployment under 8% - 7

If you asked me, then I would say I rather lose the first debate if I could get my opponent to make a comment like the "47%". I would also give up the first debate if unemployment dipped below 8%. Because the thing about the debate is that there are two more, and I just set the bar extremely low for me to win the next one.

 

[Black Mamba]

There's nothng to dismiss in the Reuters poll.

Romney went from 43 to 44. It's not statistically significant. He's still stuck.

Obama dropped. But are those people really going to switch to romney? The fact that romney didn't really gain anything says they went from pro-Obama to undecided. And they're about to go back to Obama.

The Reuters poll is STILL a bad poll for Romney. Y'all need to understand how to interpret a poll.

 

[Cheebo]

We keep tip-toeing around the real question, which is what kind of weight do you assign the political events that have happen recently? For instance on a 10 point scale with 10 being very important and 1 being having no effect, how would you weigh the following:

Scenario - My Weight

The "47%" comment - 9

Winning the first debate - 4

Unemployment under 8% - 7

If you asked me, then I would say I rather lose the first debate if I could get my opponent to make a comment like the "47%". I would also give up the first debate if unemployment dipped below 8%. Because the thing about the debate is that there are two more, and I just set the bar extremely low for me to win the next one.

except the job report never impacts polls and the debate was watched by 68 million voters. Odd ranking there.

 

[MetatronM]

A "few"? I thought it was surely only going to be 1-2...

Aggregate. 1-2 aggregate. That means there are going to be many polls where Obama loses 3, 4, 5, or even 6 points perhaps. There are also going to be polls that don't move at all or even tick a point in the opposite direction.

 

[Diablos]

except the job report never impacts polls and the debate was watched by 68 million voters. Odd ranking there.

yup

 

[Dr. Pangloss]

except the job report never impacts polls and the debate was watched by 68 million voters. Odd ranking there.

Not the job report, but the trajectory of the rate does have an effect on whether a President is reelected. And going down is good. Also, put up your own ranking or shut up.

 

[jbug617]

Can election day come already. I'm getting tired of this, you can's even joy watching tv without political ads airing every 10 minutes.

 

[pigeon]

If we have only 3 polls, I doubt you can call any of them an outlier.

Both Diablos as some others are jumping to conclusions. We can make predictions on how things will turn out (that's what Poligaf is for), but just saying "the trend is negative/positive" is something we cannot conclude as of yet.

That's fair -- outlier was the wrong word, maybe. My point, as I said in the previous post, was that the verdict is mixed. If you averaged all the polls together, you'd see about a one-point Romney gain -- which is a PoliGAF-approved result.

There's nothng to dismiss in the Reuters poll.

Romney went from 43 to 44. It's not statistically significant. He's still stuck.

Obama dropped. But are those people really going to switch to romney? The fact that romney didn't really gain anything says they went from pro-Obama to undecided. And they're about to go back to Obama.

The Reuters poll is STILL a bad poll for Romney. Y'all need to understand how to interpret a poll.

This is also a pretty good observation. Remember Reagan falling back in the polls after Carter's DNC, only to pull right back ahead as his chickens came home to roost.

 

[Souldriver]

We keep tip-toeing around the real question, which is what kind of weight do you assign the political events that have happened recently? For instance on a 10 point scale with 10 being very important and 1 having no effect, how would you weigh the following:

Scenario - My Weight

The "47%" comment - 9

Winning the first debate - 4

Unemployment under 8% - 7

If you asked me, then I would say I rather lose the first debate if I could get my opponent to make a comment like the "47%". I would also give up the first debate if unemployment dipped below 8%. Because the thing about the debate is that there are two more, and I just set the bar extremely low for me to win the next one.

A debate is most certainly more important for polls than job numbers.

The only reason I can imagine this report would be more significant for polls, is that it went under 8% unemployment. A magic number used by both campaigns.

But I still doubt it'll have much of an effect.

 

[Agnostic]

Do you guys have people that you specifically want to see Obama/Romney win to piss off?

For me (and again, I'm not a Democrat but I really dislike Romney) it's:

1. Rush Limbaugh

2. John Sununu

3. The Tea Party

4. Particular far Right people I know.

Who is it for you?

My relatives. I've been hearing Tea Party bullshit at family functions for years and I want this Thanksgiving to be glorious.

 

[Bam Bam Baklava]

A debate is most certainly more important for polls than job numbers.

The only reason I can imagine this report would be more significant for polls, is that it went under 8% unemployment. A magic number used by both campaigns.

But I still doubt it'll have much of an effect.

But, does it not give him something to bring up in the next debate. The way the media is acting it's almost as though he will get to talk about a completely different economy now than 3 days ago.

 

[Diablos]

The "47%" comment - 7

Winning the first debate - 9

Unemployment under 8% -7

 

[StopMakingSense]

The "47%" comment - 7

Winning the first debate - 9

Unemployment under 8% -7

You are effing NUTS. Literally crazy pants.

 

[Souldriver]

But, does it not give him something to bring up in the next debate. The way the media is acting it's almost as though he will get to talk about a completely different economy now than 3 days ago.

Dunno. Is the next debate economy focused?

And off course it's ammo for Obama...let's just hope he actually uses it in debates this time.

 

[Dr. Pangloss]

The "47%" comment - 7

Winning the first debate - 9

Unemployment under 8% -7

I love you man. You are my rock. My constant.

 

[teruterubozu]

Do you guys have people that you specifically want to see Obama/Romney win to piss off?

For me (and again, I'm not a Democrat but I really dislike Romney) it's:

1. Rush Limbaugh

2. John Sununu

3. The Tea Party

4. Particular far Right people I know.

Who is it for you?

Kind of Rush, but an Obama win really wouldn't be such a bad thing for him. He'll be pissed on-air, but laughing to the bank off-air.

 

[Black Mamba]

yup

What affects the election more? A debate or 3 million more people working this year?

 

[pigeon]

The "47%" comment - 7

Winning the first debate - 9

Unemployment under 8% -7

You're like a Soviet economist, man. You're supposed to start with the data and proceed to the conclusion, not set the data to align with the conclusion you've already come to.

 

[Diablos]

What affects the election more? A debate or 3 million more people working this year?

Obama looking like he went straight back to rookie status (and then some, this was the worst I've ever seen him) in front of 67 mil people is nothing to write off.

I will maintain that no one should be feeling confident until we get more polls.

 

[Souldriver]

What affects the election more? A debate or 3 million more people working this year?

I see you trying to make it sound as if the job number is waaaaay more relevant than the debate. I simply do not believe that.

 

[Red Blaster]

The "47%" comment - 0

Winning the first debate - 94234235935t32

Unemployment under 8% - 1.4

 

[Ecotic]

except the job report never impacts polls and the debate was watched by 68 million voters. Odd ranking there.

The biggest impact it's going to making the post-debate, pro-Romney news cycle end after a measly 2 days. There's only 1 month left, he needed a bad jobs report to have two weeks of momentum before the next debate.

 

[Black Mamba]

I see you trying to make it sound as if the job number is waaaaay more relevant than the debate. I simply do not believe that.

The jobs number isn't relevant at all. I didn't say it was.

I said 3 million more people working (i meant last 12 months) is more important. Not because of what a piece of paper says. I mean the actual 3 million more people working.

The economy is recovering, even if slowly, and that's more important that what any debate will show. It's why Bush held off Kerry, Reagan in '84, etc.

Household spending up. auto sales, up. housing prices and starts, highest since 2006. stock market up. The economy is what matters, not jobs reports, not debates.

2 things matter right now. Economic recovery + overall policies by the 2 sides.

 

[TacticalFox88]

The "47%" comment - 7

Winning the first debate - 9

Unemployment under 8% -7

Diablos...I think you need to step away from the computer. Seriously.

 

[Byakuya769]

The "47%" comment - 9

Winning the first debate - 9

Unemployment under 8% - 9

Cain wins as a write-in candidate.

 

[Clevinger]

Good news.

"The 6th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals ruled on Friday that Ohio must make early voting during the three days before the election available to all voters if it's available to military members and voters who live overseas. The ruling upheld a lower court's decision."

 

[cartoon_soldier]

Obama looking like he went straight back to rookie status (and then some, this was the worst I've ever seen him) in front of 67 mil people is nothing to write off.

I will maintain that no one should be feeling confident until we get more polls.

If next week Thursday, Obama is still up +2-3 nationally, +4-5 OH, WI and IA. I will feel more confident. Because frankly, that is all he needs to win. Being up in VA, NV, CO will be a big plus.

 

[Lambtron]

Good news.

"The 6th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals ruled on Friday that Ohio must make early voting during the three days before the election available to all voters if it's available to military members and voters who live overseas. The ruling upheld a lower court's decision."

6th Circuit votes to restrict voting rights for military members!!!!!

 

[StopMakingSense]

The "47%" comment - 0

Winning the first debate - 94234235935t32

Unemployment under 8% - 1.4

What Diablos is really thinking.

 

[BotoxAgent]

nothing is worse than the 47% comments, all the speeches and debates in a manufactured setting isn't as telling as that moment

 

[eBay Huckster]

He isn't unkskewing other people's data:



I assume this means his stupid survey on his site.

Data which I contributed to as a supposedly "white Christian 65 year old conservative"

 

[GhaleonEB]

BOOM, Called this shit last month after the August report (credit to the columnist)

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=41877128&postcount=135

Bingo. BLS numbers almost always lag behind the trend because of how they seasonally adjust. And Sept numbers will be revised up against next month. Throw in the 400k missing til February, and the UE rate is closer to 7.7%

This is why I told PD that the report itself doesn't matter. The report was underscoring the jobs recovery by a lot and now they've caught up a bit and now we see there are 1 million more people working. People feel the economic recovery independent of jobs reports.

And October will be even better than September. And people are not going to change course.

Worth noting that the upward revisions made the July and August numbers much stronger - September is actually the weakest of the three right now. I'm sure it will be revised up as well, however.

Good news.

"The 6th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals ruled on Friday that Ohio must make early voting during the three days before the election available to all voters if it's available to military members and voters who live overseas. The ruling upheld a lower court's decision."

Great news.

Anyone have old PoliGAF threads linked? I'm looking for the one that covers the week after the RNC in the 2008 cycle.

 

[The Librarian]

The "47%" comment - 9

Winning the first debate - 9

Unemployment under 8% - 9

Cain wins as a write-in candidate.

Yes.

 

[Allard]

nothing is worse than the 47% comments, all the speeches and debates in a manufactured setting isn't as telling as that moment

Yep nothing is worse then that moment, it set a narrative against Romney that can't be recovered. The best he can do is maybe take some undecided people (who the fuck are these people seriously?) and tighten the polls but you can't reverse that damage, it is a campaign warping nuke and Romney must not only attempt to recover but deal with the deadly radiation stink that is now on him perpetually. He can make him look better in debates but that stigma will always be there in the back of peoples minds.

 

[Byakuya769]

Is there any way imaginable that 47% doesn't come up in that town hall debate. Someone has to ask that!

 

[Bam Bam Baklava]

Anyone have old PoliGAF threads linked? I'm looking for the one that covers the week after the RNC in the 2008 cycle.

I'm assuming it was something like this. Sarah Palin had a lot of people terrified.

 

[The Technomancer]

Is there any way imaginable that 47% doesn't comeup in that town hall debate. Someone has to ask that!

It'll come up, I expect Romney to deflect it.... relatively well.

 

[Oblivion]

Businesses are gearing up in anticipation of a Romney presidency, as expected.

Why's everyone so shocked?

 

[Trakdown]

Is there any way imaginable that 47% doesn't comeup in that town hall debate. Someone has to ask that!

Romney already walked it back on some tv show(Hannity's, I think).

 

[Byakuya769]

It'll come up, I expect Romney to deflect it.... relatively well.

He should. But seems ripe for a "there he goes again" type moment where the contradictions are laid out. I want a fucking list of "you said this then you said that."

Romney already walked it back on some tv show(Hannity's, I think).

True, but I think it still invites questioning on why he said it.

 

[GhaleonEB]

I'm assuming it was something like this. Sarah Palin had a lot of people terrified.

Shortly after the RNC, Romeny took the lead on Obama in the Gallup tracker for several days.

Minds were lost. Today's thread reminded me of it. I recall freaking out a bit myself. I'm older and wiser now. Some of us just got older.

 

[Bam Bam Baklava]

Shortly after the RNC, Romeny took the lead on Obama in the Gallup tracker for several days.

Minds were lost. Today's thread reminded me of it. I recall freaking out a bit myself. I'm older and wiser now. Some of us just got older.

I wasn't a member but I read it at the time. I remember this post http://neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=12798764&postcount=14065

and this http://neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=12804291&postcount=14399