Fools idol
Banned
The bank of England literaly being verbose that pension funds have 3 days before they turn off the QE tap so market collapses is truly the hero we all needed in this shitty market
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Stock-Age: Stocks, Options and Dividends oh my!
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Fools idol
Banned
at some point there will be a divergence because the circumstances that caused those declines are no longer present in the banking systems.
We have a new set of problems now so divergence probably far worse lOL
Ellery
Member
How are we feeling about Chinese stocks right now? Why is everyone worried about Xi Jinping now? Is this delisting fears again...?
Are you BABA boys still in?
I ate my shit sandwich at around $100. Happy I did.
Absolutely no chinese stock at all and looking at Xi Jingping and the communist party I have zero faith in any investments in China. I was thinking on and off about BABA and BYD, but glad I didn't considering they are going full authoritarian and only hardliners there throwing out all reasonable people.
To be completely honest I am legit afraid to some degree. Even if the worst doesn't happen (nuclear ukraine or attacking Taiwan in 12-24 months) the rift between the west and russia/china/brics is seemingly getting larger and larger and no matter how well we avoid any crisis and maneuver well ... we will still be worse off than in the crazy illusion wealth period of 2009-2021 fueled by borrowing from the future generations.
StreetsofBeige
Gold Member
Nasdaq just announced they are banning Chinese IPOs due to the sketchy nature of them. My plan was to try hopping onto them at the opening bell. Made money on GCT, but lost on GRFX.
Made money on KNDI, GCT and LI. Lost money back on KNDI, Tencent Music and GRFX. I think I'm up $10,000 net. Whew.
Ellery
Member
I have read about that too a few days ago. Is it just small chinese IPOs which are blatant pump and dump schemes or all chinese IPOs in general?
Fools idol
Banned
How are we feeling about Chinese stocks right now? Why is everyone worried about Xi Jinping now? Is this delisting fears again...?
Are you BABA boys still in?
I ate my shit sandwich at around $100. Happy I did.
I heavily averaged down today from $85 to $65. I got a huge heap of shares around $58.9 or so, I just can't believe how cheap this stock is. They have so much cash it's disgusting.
I don't know how low it will go, but I do know these prices 5-10 years from now will look like mr. market was having a mental breakdown.
StreetsofBeige
Gold Member
StreetsofBeige
Gold Member
Well, FB is making tons of money to absorb the losses.
I didnt know their VR Labs division was losing this much money until today.
Meta Stock Plunges, Faces $90 Billion Wipeout, After Grim Q3 Update
"I think that those who are patient and invest with us will end up being rewarded.," said CEO Mark Zuckerberg.
www.thestreet.com
Meta said it would "meaningfully" ramp-up investments in Reality Labs, the division that will house the company's metaverse plans and has absorbed more than $9.4 billion in losses over the first nine months of the year, as the social media group continues to transition from its Facebook roots.
Gp1
Member
A little of macroeconomics for today.
A bunch o central banks like Canada, Australia, even FED etc. gave up to dovish tone on recent weeks...
Example of the day - Italy:
Expected inflation for this month: 1.4% mo. increase
Real data today: 4% mo. increase.
Now imagine what the interest rate increase necessary to curb the example above will do to a country with almost 135% debt/gdp rate.
The lesson: Don't play with fire, inflation and monetary incentive guys.
A bunch o central banks like Canada, Australia, even FED etc. gave up to dovish tone on recent weeks...
Example of the day - Italy:
Expected inflation for this month: 1.4% mo. increase
Real data today: 4% mo. increase.
Now imagine what the interest rate increase necessary to curb the example above will do to a country with almost 135% debt/gdp rate.
The lesson: Don't play with fire, inflation and monetary incentive guys.
StreetsofBeige
Gold Member
The funny thing about inflation rates and interest rates is that the theory is when inflation gets high, the gov and banks bump up rates. Increased loan and mortgages rates kill peoples money so that they buy less stuff and suppliers and stores panic and drop prices so they keep coming in to buy stuff.
That may be true for some things.
But when people with shittier purchasing power have to buy stuff they’ll keep buying necessities which will keep stuff at high prices. And cost of living buckets take into account everyday stuff people buy. Not the price of swimming pools and computer gaming chairs.
Ok, maybe that luxury leather chair and ottoman will drop in price but history shows prices go up over time no matter what. It’s very rare for things to go down in price.
It’s also a cycle not a vacuum. So for many goods when rates up up so do costs. So what companies do (like mine) is just increase prices again to keep up with cost of debt increases.
Ozzy Onya A2Z
Member
Ozzy Onya A2Z
Member
Got a nice little prospectus today from the KIS/G6M Tasmanian, Australia mining stock I've been posting in this thread. Up to $30K new option offer for existing shareholders to buy in at $0.17 per share and every 2 shares taken receive 1 new option @ $0.28 locked in for 12-18 months. I'm speculating this stock to be 10, 20, 30 fold without even trying next year; all the samples/grading, approvals, funding, infrastructure/building and 3/5 of production output already sold on contracts for 4 years plus US military/government EOI soon to be publicly contractual I reckon, next year. What will be the western world's only tungsten mine re-commencing production early next year and they just put this prospectus out @ $0.28, current market price $0.17 (80s mine was at $3.00-4.00 back then, sat dormant for decades, fought off backchannel Chinese takeover, 100% Aussie owned and now rises from $0.03 to flux between $0.16-$0.22 with the hype of reopening, peak $0.35 at media surrounding relaunch).
Prediction: when production hits early next year it's going up, when that is sustained and expanded in terms of output and revenue it's continuing up, as the market/world recovers it will go up.
For this amateur fool I'd hazard a guess I'll push 2.8X ROI based on that figure, more if the satellite sites and new exploration G6M is touting proves fruitful on top of the reopening mine, they already proved what's in the ground there. I put another $4K today to double down a bit on this one, on top of my initial investment. Question now is how big do I go? I'm leaning towards the full $30K, reckon this one is at worst break even whenever you choose next year with a best upside to tripling your money or far more.
#RateMyStock
EDIT: My big issue is timing. How do I know when to sell these stocks, if my prediction is correct? Selecting that peak probably correlates to something personal e.g. children move out or buy them an investment property to think they rent while we pay it off instead etc. But in terms of reading G6M specific company activity/share price trends and that pivotal point to sell is a tough one. I don't have enough experience to feel confident in choosing an optimum time to sell yet. Working on sticking with your decisions still.
Prediction: when production hits early next year it's going up, when that is sustained and expanded in terms of output and revenue it's continuing up, as the market/world recovers it will go up.
For this amateur fool I'd hazard a guess I'll push 2.8X ROI based on that figure, more if the satellite sites and new exploration G6M is touting proves fruitful on top of the reopening mine, they already proved what's in the ground there. I put another $4K today to double down a bit on this one, on top of my initial investment. Question now is how big do I go? I'm leaning towards the full $30K, reckon this one is at worst break even whenever you choose next year with a best upside to tripling your money or far more.
#RateMyStock
EDIT: My big issue is timing. How do I know when to sell these stocks, if my prediction is correct? Selecting that peak probably correlates to something personal e.g. children move out or buy them an investment property to think they rent while we pay it off instead etc. But in terms of reading G6M specific company activity/share price trends and that pivotal point to sell is a tough one. I don't have enough experience to feel confident in choosing an optimum time to sell yet. Working on sticking with your decisions still.
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Fools idol
Banned
havent posted here in a bit.
It's been a good week for my short positions, tesla especially. I think most of the big downward move is over for Elon. There is room down to maybe 130$ max but I dont see it happening unless the overall market takes a really big shit.
It's been a good week for my short positions, tesla especially. I think most of the big downward move is over for Elon. There is room down to maybe 130$ max but I dont see it happening unless the overall market takes a really big shit.
mckmas8808
Mckmaster uses MasterCard to buy Slave drives
Ozzy Onya A2Z
Member
Yep, I'm tempted to dive back into Tesla, doubled my money on the last round from the stock split and got out before the current downturn. Happy to head back in these days with the semi launching and Pepsi taking a decent contract for their fleet. Elon's twitter exit strategy helps massage things back to pointing up I reckon.
That China downturn is real though.
StreetsofBeige
Gold Member
Portfolio sunk a lot since the peak a year ago. Thankfully, I'm around 50% cash, so its been a slow burn.
Fools idol
Banned
I'm not touching Tesla until late next year. There are just far too many out of control headwinds for elon right now and the stock still has too many cultists trying to buy the dip. We are not yet at capitulation.
StreetsofBeige
Gold Member
I'm going to hold onto what I have for now. I'll look at stuff next Jan or Feb. Tax loss selling season too. Still got a week for people to dump stocks for a loss. Hopefully, next year it picks back up.
Ozzy Onya A2Z
Member
Yeah, personally sold everything but one stock. I heeded some advice in this thread from way back to cash up and wait to pounce back into the market. I'm in that holding pattern for now before I buy back in on 4-6 stocks. The GAFfer pretty much saw the last 6-12 months coming beforehand I agree with their take and actioned my personal side of things. I forget the GAFfer's name, they had a red avatar I think, they worked at a top end finance/bank and did this analysis for a living. They seem to have disappeared completely from GAF though, at least this thread anyway. As for my trust investments they're largely untouched, they just tick away and aren't really for trading speculation or market trends, more so portfolio diversity and keeping multiple income streams for us long term.
He does seem to be on a crazy run/stretching himself too thin lately, with adverse results for his companies. I'm in the same boat, I think Tesla and a bit more downturn to go.
Tax time down under is end of June/start of July. At least it separates XMAS and business, something I appreciate a lot here.
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StreetsofBeige
Gold Member
That poster you were talking about was ManofOne. Too bad he left. His stock posts were great. One of his tips ON Semiconductor I bought. I got impatient and dumped it after 3 months as it did nothing. As soon as I sold it went up 70-80%. I should had listened to him.
Ozzy Onya A2Z
Member
Thanks. That's the one. Dude was knowledgeable and happy to share/discuss his claims. Well missed.
I had a client gift me this one stock, posted about it ages ago. Company took a dive, hired ex Walmart alumni and still shit the bed with Covid etc. I dumped that $1K worth of stock, it was just a client who lost his shirt on this stock holding and decided to gift it away to me. I just don't see companies spending money on that sort of brain training staff morale tech in the workplace given current market and economy conditions. Fuck it, took my 1K and left.
dem
Member
We've hit $125
I think I'm at like 80% HISA etf's at this point.. lol.
Looks like Apple is going to be the last man standing.
But for how long? Stay safe out there!
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Fools idol
Banned
tesla getting destroyred. I covered a few of my shorts shares and took some of the profts on puts.
Will hold the rest and see how it goes. Could we see sub $100 tesla soon? time will tell.
Will hold the rest and see how it goes. Could we see sub $100 tesla soon? time will tell.
StreetsofBeige
Gold Member
Tesla was always an overrated stock based on EV and Musk hype. Replace Musk with a typical 60 year old white haired suit and tie guy and Tesla would worth a fraction of what it is now. The stock now has a PE of about 38. If it drops to $50, PE still 16.
The company is still worth more than Toyota, Ford and GM combined even though they all make giant profits.
I'll take a risk if it hits $50.
On the plus side, I made money on that fucking APE stock. Made 50% on it and dumped it this morning. That cushioned some of my losses today. Thank god!
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dem
Member
Tesla is interesting at a certain price. It's still not close yet, for me.
I do think Elon will be able keep profit margins far larger than the bloated legacy car manufacturers... and there are "Bonus" energy spinoff businesses. He's building an "Apple" of the automotive industry. The stock cart just got waaaaaaaaaaaaay too far ahead of the horse.
I do think Elon will be able keep profit margins far larger than the bloated legacy car manufacturers... and there are "Bonus" energy spinoff businesses. He's building an "Apple" of the automotive industry. The stock cart just got waaaaaaaaaaaaay too far ahead of the horse.
mckmas8808
Mckmaster uses MasterCard to buy Slave drives
$50 is nightmare terrority right? I mean........jeez
Fools idol
Banned
its not going to 50$ again dude...
stocks like this are long term winners and will always be 'overvalued' (even if tesla went to 50$ the stock would still be 'overvalued' by all traditional metrics.
You play them differently, you clued yourself in the post. With stocks like Tesla, the indicators you need to watch are volume, relative strength index, and price to sales since it is effectively what the algos use to 'value' the growth and measure risk reward.
The reason I closed most of my short is because the metrics above are showing signs of trend change. I believe there is room for further weakness, but when were this close to support levels on the charts the algos will pop it up on any positive tweets from Elon or whatever the fuck.
i've been investing in stonks for around 10 years. I wouldn't say I am an expert, far from it, just wanted to end this post with that so you know whats up. I been a millionaire from around 2017.
GHG
Member
Try $16.
Fools idol
Banned
LOL.
Demand destruction is a thing. How bad it will get? no one really knows but people are certainly not buying $60-100k new cars during a hard recession.
Elon has said the past few days he is going to not be selling any shares until 2025 now, but if you read between the lines of the full conversation had, it's clear he sees demand destruction coming if not already here. Tesla will will be forced to prioritise their unit sales over their Margins, which ultimately could mean it will be priced more as a value company over growth. That is the only way I can see tesla going sub $100, maybe as low as $50 but its a very very unlikely scenario given how much diehard dip buyers are ready to swipe.
Let me tell you though. At the troughs of the recession, those who have the cash means and balls to buy when everyone is running for the hills on Tesla, new fortunes will be made. I bought the stonk hand over fist while the market crashed over Covid 19, and it 10x'ed my personal wealth within 2 years. I sold the lot, as posted here. Time will repeat it self again, you just have to be patient and ready as fuck to strike when the time comes. It can take years of patience for that one opportunity.
We just had one such opportunity with AliBaba at $60, which I loaded the boat. I understand that is too much risk for many blood here, but I rest my case, you dont make the big bucks playing it safe.
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GHG
Member
I'm just going off the technicals based on the monthly chart, don't shoot the messenger.
Unless it finds sustained support around its current levels 120-130 then that's where we will inevitably head. The volume tells you everything, nobody is stepping in to buy in a major way yet.
The remaining key levels are 55, 25 and then 16.
mckmas8808
Mckmaster uses MasterCard to buy Slave drives
With decreased demand for all EVs in 2023 due to the upcoming recession, I imagine Tesla will start to actually lower the price of their vehichles since they already make a 20+% margin on each one sold. It'll eat into their profits of course, but they are the only EV makers on Earth that can take advantage of a recession like this (since they make so much stuff in-house).
And with the release of the Cybertruck next year, the bros will be back on the Tesla stock. The question is.......how low does it go before that?
StreetsofBeige
Gold Member
Made money on APE. Not a lot. $3000. First time taking a dip on this dumb stock. As crazy as it seems, I made money 3 times on AMC (lost once) and now made some quick cash on APE. All total, I think I've made about $15,000 flipping these shady stocks the past year. Should had been $20,000, but lost on AMC one time.
They've got demand issues where they've now stopped production at some facilities. A bad sign. And it's not like tomorrow they are suddenly going to restart it up. Shut downs are for lengthy durations, not 1 or 2 day stops and then back to normal.
Let the dust settle in Q1 2023 or even Q2.
$50 I'm in!
They've got demand issues where they've now stopped production at some facilities. A bad sign. And it's not like tomorrow they are suddenly going to restart it up. Shut downs are for lengthy durations, not 1 or 2 day stops and then back to normal.
Let the dust settle in Q1 2023 or even Q2.
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StreetsofBeige
Gold Member
Never bought Apple ever. Every once in a while during downturns I'm tempted to get in, hope for a 10-20% rebound and get out. A shame too because I started trading during the dot com boom in 1999. I remember when Apple got decapitated the day it warned and it dropped probably a ton. I remember it at $10-20 before their iPod craze started (which Yahoo says is split adjusted to about 30 cents!).
At some point Apple will be a great buy. But in this market forget it. Everything is getting thrashed. Even "safe stuff" like utilities and banks have got trampled this year.
But in 2023, there's going to be a point its s good time to get in.
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Fools idol
Banned
Just made my first trade of the year and it's a buy.
$SQM - large lithium play. 12% starting div yield locked in... even if this does not move for 5 years I will double my money from dividends and reinvesting them.
$SQM - large lithium play. 12% starting div yield locked in... even if this does not move for 5 years I will double my money from dividends and reinvesting them.
StreetsofBeige
Gold Member
Cant believe my portfolio has gone up 5 days in a row. All week green, and the last trading day in 2022 green too.
2022 was a bloodbath. My stocks dropped about 25%. Thankfully I was about 40-50% cash. So my net loss was about half that.
So far, this lucky streak has my stocks gaining back 6% in a week (portfolio up about 3%).
2022 was a bloodbath. My stocks dropped about 25%. Thankfully I was about 40-50% cash. So my net loss was about half that.
So far, this lucky streak has my stocks gaining back 6% in a week (portfolio up about 3%).
bluecowboys
Banned
Investing in the stock market when it is down is usually a good bet in the long run. I wish I did it on March 2020 that's for sure. I believe this year will be bearish too, but hopefully 2024 will be a great year.
Fools idol
Banned
replying to myself here but my all-in investment into $BABA just crossed 80% return on common stock and approximately 450% on my call options.
It almost feels disgusting to 3x my portfilio size in a market where most people have lost their asses. I wanted to share this post as when I wrote it, I was as much sharing it for integrity as I was convincing myself my decision was the right one to make.
What a week. $baba at $115 again, roll on $200.
I hope you are all ready for lord wealth destroyer J.Powow himself to rug pull the market with the CPI report tomorrow.
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Ozzy Onya A2Z
Member
While it's tough out there, you did things without any harm to another and had success. Nothing but good things there. Corporates that inside trade, tank/stall a market and all the rest are complete asshats though. Some good people run some good companies still. Good solo investments are a positive for the market too.
I hope to replicate your success and magnitude with continued upside on my G6M stock options (posted about above in this thread). Aiming for this year or next for pay off. Want to cash half out in that range and keep half longer term too. MAX I offered is $30K with half new options being another $15k on the side. Time will tell how this one goes...I'll reply to myself when I sell some.
Ozzy Onya A2Z
Member
Amateur here, reckon decline this year still and next year begins a climb back. If you have liquidity then any time is probably sweet to hold for the next few years for some bank.
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