Support NeoGAF

[Fools idol]

For someone who is inexperienced in the stock market, are index funds going to be my best approach? Or would I be better DCAing into certain companies? Do we expect the stock market to have further decline or are we considered to be close to the bottom?

I would say that you should have 60% of your money in a solid index fund like $QQQ and then pick 5 or 6 stocks for the rest and spread evenly. Make sure you have one or two dividend payers for cashflow and just add to it over a long period of time, ups and downs. Your average return over 20+ years will be amazing.

At the moment a lot of great companies are trading 80% cheaper than they were just 1 year ago. It's a good time to start, just dont go all in at once.

 

[HoodWinked]

money market is getting 4% yield

 

[crazepharmacist]

money market is getting 4% yield

Will be 5% pretty soon

 

[Grildon Tundy]

Just made my first trade of the year and it's a buy.

$SQM - large lithium play. 12% starting div yield locked in... even if this does not move for 5 years I will double my money from dividends and reinvesting them.

Can I ask, how did you lock into a 12% starting dividend?

 

[Grildon Tundy]

What happens to Activision Blizzard stock if Microsoft acquires them? Would an ATVI stock bought at $70 be worth the ~$90 that Microsoft offered to pay for ATVI?

 

[StreetsofBeige]

Portfolio doing great lately. All green days except one.

What happens to Activision Blizzard stock if Microsoft acquires them? Would an ATVI stock bought at $70 be worth the ~$90 that Microsoft offered to pay for ATVI?

Yes. Activision stock would hit $90+. Whatever the math is dividing the offer divided by shares.

 

[HoodWinked]

What happens to Activision Blizzard stock if Microsoft acquires them? Would an ATVI stock bought at $70 be worth the ~$90 that Microsoft offered to pay for ATVI?

ya its why Warren Buffet bought a shitload of Activision Blizzard because he wanted to make money on the arbitrage.

 

[StreetsofBeige]

ya its why Warren Buffet bought a shitload of Activision Blizzard because he wanted to make money on the arbitrage.

Ya. But be weary what Buffet's public antics are. He says one thing in public but might do another. And you wont know his final decision until like a year later after he's well past it.

For example for years he said tech companies were trash, overpriced or "I dont understand tech stocks so I dont buy them". Then an article would come out saying he'd been loading up on Apple and Amazon for years without telling people publicly. Amazon probably had a PE of 100 or 200 when he was buying up.

He dumped all his Wells Fargo stock over the years. Thats why it tanked to like $25. Never said a thing. Next thing you know an article comes out saying he sold all of it.

He's also been a big promoter about dividends, passive income and people should buy the types of stocks he buys (income generating). Yet his Berkshire stock never pays one.

 

[mckmas8808]

Ya. But be weary what Buffet's public antics are. He says one thing in public but might do another. And you wont know his final decision until like a year later after he's well past it.

For example for years he said tech companies were trash, overpriced or "I dont understand tech stocks so I dont buy them". Then an article would come out saying he'd been loading up on Apple and Amazon for years without telling people publicly. Amazon probably had a PE of 100 or 200 when he was buying up.

He dumped all his Wells Fargo stock over the years. Thats why it tanked to like $25. Never said a thing. Next thing you know an article comes out saying he sold all of it.

He's also been a big promoter about dividends, passive income and people should buy the types of stocks he buys (income generating). Yet his Berkshire stock never pays one.

Dang! I respect Buffett alot, but this make him sound like a douchebag.

 

[Ass of Can Whooping]

Ya. But be weary what Buffet's public antics are. He says one thing in public but might do another. And you wont know his final decision until like a year later after he's well past it.

For example for years he said tech companies were trash, overpriced or "I dont understand tech stocks so I dont buy them". Then an article would come out saying he'd been loading up on Apple and Amazon for years without telling people publicly. Amazon probably had a PE of 100 or 200 when he was buying up.

He dumped all his Wells Fargo stock over the years. Thats why it tanked to like $25. Never said a thing. Next thing you know an article comes out saying he sold all of it.

You're aware you can see what BH buys and sells quarterly, right?

He's also been a big promoter about dividends, passive income and people should buy the types of stocks he buys (income generating). Yet his Berkshire stock never pays one.

Don't see the relevance here. Just because you like dividends doesn't mean it makes sense to pay one yourself.

 

[StreetsofBeige]

You're aware you can see what BH buys and sells quarterly, right?

That's what I mean. He wont openly tell people what he's doing unless you dig into it. He'll openly tell people when it's already be done.

Don't see the relevance here. Just because you like dividends doesn't mean it makes sense to pay one yourself.

That's the point. His investing PR is invest in income generating stocks, low PE kinds of tried and true value stocks and dont buy overpriced tech with high valuations. If that's the case, nobody should buy Berkshire (his own company). It pays no dividends and has a PE of 60. Even Tesla has a better PE at about 40.

 

[GHG]

People referencing Buffet need to pay attention to what he actually does - it's all documented in Berkshire Hathaway's 13Fs.

One thing to note is that he rarely talks about when he's exited or trimmed his positions but like the best of them he's very quick to tell everyone when he's entered.

 

[StreetsofBeige]

Squeaked out a whopping +$83 today! lol. I'll take it. Was red for most of the day. Been green every day except one since late December.

Edit: Just checked. Final adjustments or currency conversion I dont know. Down to +$69.67!

 

[Fools idol]

People referencing Buffet need to pay attention to what he actually does - it's all documented in Berkshire Hathaway's 13Fs.

One thing to note is that he rarely talks about when he's exited or trimmed his positions but like the best of them he's very quick to tell everyone when he's entered.

Buffett's entire shtick is a fraud imho. He's one of the worst insider traders there has ever been, we just don't hear about it because he's Warren Buffett.

 

[mckmas8808]

Buffett's entire shtick is a fraud imho. He's one of the worst insider traders there has ever been, we just don't hear about it because he's Warren Buffett.

You sure? I've never heard this before.

 

[StreetsofBeige]

What a run. I think my portfolio has gone up 10 of 11 days. Today too was a good one (Canadian markets open). My Canadian stocks went up 4% alone today.

My stocks have gone up about 14% in two weeks. Roughly 7% overall as I'm about 50/50 stocks and cash. Still a ways off from my ATH since 2022 was such a downer. Portfolio has to go up another 12% to get there! So my stocks have to go up 25% more!

I'm teased to get back into more stocks. Shoulda, woulda, coulda.

 

[StreetsofBeige]

Cant believe it. My portfolio actually went up today $50.

 

[Grildon Tundy]

Just placed an order for BABA tomorrow. Let's get rich!

 

[ipukespiders]

It's been a great start to the year. Yay, 2023!

 

[StreetsofBeige]

It's been a great start to the year. Yay, 2023!

Yup. Starting on the last trading day of 2022 to now, it's been sweet.

 

[Needlecrash]

I need to get started in investing. Guess I gotta start somewhere right?

 

[Ellery]

I need to get started in investing. Guess I gotta start somewhere right?

Definitely. Investing is always great to start, because investing is long term. You can also trade, but that would be more like short term speculative "investing".

I am not saying that trading is bad, but it operates on a different timescale and has completely different emotional requirements. Investing is for everyone. Trading isn't.

But investing and learning about finances is something that everyone should do. Start with small positions and see how it works. Get to know how companies operate dive into the world of putting your money to work.

replying to myself here but my all-in investment into $BABA just crossed 80% return on common stock and approximately 450% on my call options.

It almost feels disgusting to 3x my portfilio size in a market where most people have lost their asses. I wanted to share this post as when I wrote it, I was as much sharing it for integrity as I was convincing myself my decision was the right one to make.

What a week. $baba at $115 again, roll on $200.

I hope you are all ready for lord wealth destroyer J.Powow himself to rug pull the market with the CPI report tomorrow.

Big congratulations. That is a gigantic trade and well deserved.

Say what platform/broker are you using to trade options?

 

[ipukespiders]

Yup. Starting on the last trading day of 2022 to now, it's been sweet.

Would be sweet to see an S&P 500 ATH this year.

 

[Fools idol]

Big congratulations. That is a gigantic trade and well deserved.

Say what platform/broker are you using to trade options?

thanks mate!

I was using Interactive Brokers. I closed out the options to lock in the absurd gains because the risk was high, I don't like options trading at all.

 

[It's all in the wrist]

Today is a momentous day. I finally broke even day trading after some really hard lessons. Been doing it since early 2021.

Thanks/fuck you, Tesla!

 

[StreetsofBeige]

Today is a momentous day. I finally broke even day trading after some really hard lessons. Been doing it since early 2021.

Thanks/fuck you, Tesla!

Yup. Another nice one. Stocks went up 3% today. I think my stocks have gone up 15% in 3 weeks. If they can repeat this, I'll break even from my 2022 lows (what a lousy year 2022 was) and reach my ATH again like in 2021.

 

[hollams]

Wild ride with NVDA past year. Start of 2022 I was up 12K in the stock and for some reason didn't sell. Oct 2022 was down 4K. Today up $100. Whew.

 

[Fools idol]

Microsoft is investing big into a ChatGPT3 stake. I feel this one is looking very ripe for a buy on any more weakness

 

[StreetsofBeige]

Good rebound. Only lost $500. Was down $1000s in the morning.

So tempted to roll the dice on volatile shit like Roku, Square or Paypal. I dont even care about the fundamentals. Just hope for the Nasdaq to go up and they go up 20% with it kind of thing. Then bail.

 

[Fools idol]

the dividend-only portfolio I set up for my 4 year old daughter reached a milestone today... $10,000 per year in dividend income. Thanks to recent dividend hikes from $LOW, $TGT and $SQM (12% starting yield when I loaded a few weeks back!).

The actual overall return thus far is down -16% total thanks to the shitty year we just had but the dividend keep rolling in and increasing.

it pays out $2.5k or so every 3 months, give or take a few dollars depending on further raises this year. It has been set to fully reinvest all dividends and I automated a $1k deposit to go in every month from now. Purchases made every 2 months to reduce fees and dollar cost average. I am hoping by the time she turns 18 it will be churning out at least $75k a year so she can pursue whatever she wants in life.i

 

[Ozzy Onya A2Z]

Good rebound. Only lost $500. Was down $1000s in the morning.

So tempted to roll the dice on volatile shit like Roku, Square or Paypal. I dont even care about the fundamentals. Just hope for the Nasdaq to go up and they go up 20% with it kind of thing. Then bail.

Yep, a sort of extended day trade mentality has been creeping up on me as well.

 

[StreetsofBeige]

Any of you lucky bastards got Meta? Had it on my watchlist since last year. Didn’t take the plunge.

 

[Fools idol]

lol Powell folded like a deck chair. What a little cuck.

Guess we will get a rally for a month or two.

 

[Ellery]

lol Powell folded like a deck chair. What a little cuck.

Guess we will get a rally for a month or two.

I am somewhat afraid of taking any positions in the market at the moment. (I also don't have access to all the cool short term leveraged trading instruments)

I feel like I am too late now and some stocks already had crazy gains in the last 4 weeks.

But most of all I am surprised how well the US and euro zone is taking quantitative tightening. Maybe the fallout comes with a big delay

Extremely hard to make sense of the markets for me. I will probably stick to the technicals and evaluations and imho things are too expensive

Do you expect a 10-20% rally for 4-5 weeks and then bear market again?

 

[HoodWinked]

It's weird how psychologically good this market is at manipulating your mind.

Like you think only an idiot sells low and buys high. And just like that when the market was bottoming end of December no Santa rally that's when you should have brought as people were selling. And now fear and greed index shows little fear as the market has rallied and more dumb money is flooding in.

 

[Ellery]

It's weird how psychologically good this market is at manipulating your mind.

Like you think only an idiot sells low and buys high. And just like that when the market was bottoming end of December no Santa rally that's when you should have brought as people were selling. And now fear and greed index shows little fear as the market has rallied and more dumb money is flooding in.

Yeah I try to stay away from any media or influencer opinion regarding the state of the market.

On a personal level I think shit is fucked beyond repair, but that would just be my personal opinion and the market doesn't bow to my personal opinion so I can't use my anecdotal feelings as an investment strategy.

It also isn't as easy as being an anticyclical investor.

What is your current modus operandi?

 

[GHG]

the market doesn't bow to my personal opinion so I can't use my anecdotal feelings as an investment strategy.

On a fundamental level this is how everyone trades and invests, even the best. But there are three important things that you need to have:

• Rules - what are you willing to risk and what do you seek to gain. What's your walk away point if you're wrong and at what point do you realise your profits if you're correct.
• Conviction to see the trade through to its final outcome defined above - this can only come from a deep understanding of why your thesis is what it is - can this be backed up through research? As an example, if you think "shit is fucked beyond repair" why is that your feeling and can that be quantified in any way? If you can't find anything concrete to back up your feelings then don't put anything into action, keep searching until you can find something that gives you confidence to take action.
• Discipline - simple one in principle but many find it difficult in practice, stick to your fucking rules.

 

[Fools idol]

There is an inverse Jim Cramer ETF that buys what he says to sell and shorts what he says to buy and so far its up around 200% on the year lol

 

[GHG]

There is an inverse Jim Cramer ETF that buys what he says to sell and shorts what he says to buy and so far its up around 200% on the year lol

Or just scrap everything I said in my post above and do this.

Inverse Cathy, inverse Cramer.

I've also noticed Cathy Wood is getting herself back in the press in recent weeks. The signals are all starting to align again.

 

[Ellery]

Or just scrap everything I said in my post above and do this.

Inverse Cathy, inverse Cramer.

I've also noticed Cathy Wood is getting herself back in the press in recent weeks. The signals are all starting to align again.

What do you mean? The signals for what?

 

[GHG]

What do you mean? The signals for what?

I'm partly being facetious, but signals for the market topping.

 

[StreetsofBeige]

Didnt buy Roku.

 

[Fools idol]

my cloudflare calls be rippin

 

[Ash Sparrow]

What do you guys think about Peleton? bought some and happy so far.

 

[GHG]

What do you guys think about Peleton? bought some and happy so far.

Going bankrupt.

And no, I'm not joking.

 

[elcapitano]

Personally when shit his the fan I went for the blissful ignorance approach and am just pretending I'm not loosing thousands of dollars.

I'm in what I'm in for the long run I guess. Be that a good or bad thing!

 

[Grildon Tundy]

I bought some MSFT, NVIDIA, and AMD last week since they seemed low. They're up 6%, 10%, & 20% right now, respectively.

It's fun to see some increases after watching my main portfolio hover around -15% lifetime for a year or so. Even if I'm still down overall

Not that it really matters; this is my personal retirement portfolio (in addition to my company 401ks) I do for fun/in an effort to invest as much as I can as early as I can. Not planning on pulling it out for another decade at least.

 

[GHG]

Yep the mania is back. AMZN, AAPL and GOOGL all miss. Market up.

Don't see how this doesn't all end in tears.

 

[StreetsofBeige]

Yep the mania is back. AMZN, AAPL and GOOGL all miss. Market up.

Don't see how this doesn't all end in tears.

Ya, I was going to say the same thing. I missed all month to jump back into tech stocks.

I'm itching now. Maybe Monday.

I did buy some HIMX a week or so ago and up a modest 5%. But been on the sidelines for a good half a year.

 

[crazepharmacist]

Yep the mania is back. AMZN, AAPL and GOOGL all miss. Market up.

Don't see how this doesn't all end in tears.

I wonder if it’s smart or dumb money behind this rally. I don’t really hear anyone at work or in my friend circle talking about the stock market like they all were during the post-Covid run up. regardless, for sure there will be a significant pull back. The question is when. I think we run up for a few more weeks and have a correction by mid February or early March