Great Auk
Member
This post is totally unhinged.
Stock-Age: Stocks, Options and Dividends oh my!
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This post is totally unhinged.
pel1300
Member
Maybe he's been watching Secular Talk with Kyle Kulinski. He's been pushing the "Kamala really won" narrative. Dude has lost it.
Nocty
Gold Member
I took a new position at the close on friday in a handful of coal stocks, primarily $HCC and $AMR
I'm curious what you guys think, given we are all just amatures at the mercy of big hedgefundbros. I've become increasingly bullish on coal in general, which sounds a bit dumb in 2025, but hear me out... coal, eespecially metallurgical coal, I see improving industry fundamentals, attractive valuations, and the potential for significant shareholder returns through buybacks. Demand remains strong for coal, supply constraints have created quite a favorable environment for producers. These new tarifs will most certainly have the industry pulling up it's big boy pants.
TLDR;
1. Demand remains strong, while supply constraints have created a more favorable environment for producers.
2. Excess Cash and Share Repurchases (I'm particularly drawn to companies with significant excess cash and aggressive share repurchase programs. These kinds of capital allocation strategies often lead to strong stock performance, and I see this dynamic playing out clearly in names like Alpha Metallurgical Resources (AMR).
What excites me most is that some of these companies appear significantly undervalued—even though the value is right there for anyone willing to look. It feels like one of those rare "cinch" investment opportunities. Value Hiding in Plain Sight tbh, again especially in Metallurgical Coal specifically like $HCC.
My focus has been on metallurgical coal producers rather than thermal coal simply because Met coal is generally higher quality and commands better pricing and margins, which aligns better with the kind of long-term upside I’m looking for. Kinda like the Nvidia of coal compared to say AMD.
The continued demand from China and India—who together are the largest coal consumers, producers, and importers—adds another layer of support to the investment thesis. Their role in the global coal market can’t be overstated... HCC operational costs are very low run compared to other energy sector companies.
They have a long track record of disciplined, efficient production gives them staying power in various market conditions.
And finally perhaps the part im least sure about, but seeing a trend towards is despite the 'energy going woke' global push toward clean energy and tightening regulations,the coal market’s been quite resiliant. In fact, global supply has been declining faster than demand, which could potentially lead to price spikes and margin expansion for producers.
Just my sunday evening crackpot thesis, but yeah I'm very long coal. The valuations are dity fucking cheap at this point, in a hammered down and hated intustry.
I'm curious what you guys think, given we are all just amatures at the mercy of big hedgefundbros. I've become increasingly bullish on coal in general, which sounds a bit dumb in 2025, but hear me out... coal, eespecially metallurgical coal, I see improving industry fundamentals, attractive valuations, and the potential for significant shareholder returns through buybacks. Demand remains strong for coal, supply constraints have created quite a favorable environment for producers. These new tarifs will most certainly have the industry pulling up it's big boy pants.
TLDR;
1. Demand remains strong, while supply constraints have created a more favorable environment for producers.
2. Excess Cash and Share Repurchases (I'm particularly drawn to companies with significant excess cash and aggressive share repurchase programs. These kinds of capital allocation strategies often lead to strong stock performance, and I see this dynamic playing out clearly in names like Alpha Metallurgical Resources (AMR).
What excites me most is that some of these companies appear significantly undervalued—even though the value is right there for anyone willing to look. It feels like one of those rare "cinch" investment opportunities. Value Hiding in Plain Sight tbh, again especially in Metallurgical Coal specifically like $HCC.
My focus has been on metallurgical coal producers rather than thermal coal simply because Met coal is generally higher quality and commands better pricing and margins, which aligns better with the kind of long-term upside I’m looking for. Kinda like the Nvidia of coal compared to say AMD.
The continued demand from China and India—who together are the largest coal consumers, producers, and importers—adds another layer of support to the investment thesis. Their role in the global coal market can’t be overstated... HCC operational costs are very low run compared to other energy sector companies.
They have a long track record of disciplined, efficient production gives them staying power in various market conditions.
And finally perhaps the part im least sure about, but seeing a trend towards is despite the 'energy going woke' global push toward clean energy and tightening regulations,the coal market’s been quite resiliant. In fact, global supply has been declining faster than demand, which could potentially lead to price spikes and margin expansion for producers.
Just my sunday evening crackpot thesis, but yeah I'm very long coal. The valuations are dity fucking cheap at this point, in a hammered down and hated intustry.
Gp1
Member
AFAIK energy in general tends to perform well in times of inflation but isn't coal production directly linked with industrial activity (aka metallurgy, cement industry, chemicals, ceramics etc.) which does not perform that well with inflation?
See where i'm going... right?
SlimySnake
Flashless at the Golden Globes
He actually tried to have Georgia's state official overturn the results of the 2020 election. people actually went to jail over it. Several of his aides said he wasn't going to leave the white house. If you followed any of the news these past few years regarding that whole mess 4 years ago, none of this should come as a surprise.
That said, he will try, but just like last time, he wont be successful. He's already said that there are ways he can run a third time so he's clearly explored it. Everyone last year said he would never go through with the tarrifs and he did. It's time to take his word for once.
I believe the market will go back up. it always does. Just what happens in the next few days, weeks, months, years, is anyone's guess. I went through this 17 years ago trying to enter the job market as a newly graduate the same time 600k people were getting laid off every month. Watched people around me lose their homes, and several of my classmates go to work for retail after graduating with bachelors degrees. Some took until 2011 to get hired in their respective fields. I remember when i did find a job 10 months after graduating, the office i was hired in was literally 60% empty. rows and rows of empty cubicles. we never filled them again either.
if the market crashes, things are going to get ugly really fast. some people just speak from experience. we've lived this.
StreetsofBeige
Gold Member
I dont know what milk US prices are now, but the dairy quotas and Canadian protection for dairy farming are insane.
For those of you Yanks who dont know, milk sold in Canada (lets say 4 liters worth, which is about the same as a gallon jug at 3.78 L) is about $5-6 for the cheapest shittiest milk (regular price). The more premium filtered milk is $6-8, and if you want any fancy organic whatever, it's probably $10.
I remember reading gallon jugs in the US were like $3. In Canada, you'd be paying minimum $5 for the lower quality milk even 15 years ago. And this is made locally, close by and doesn't even need to ship over borders.
This probably goes for any organized industry around the world too. To keep prices up, they purpose dump good product down the drain (so to speak), just so dairy farmer company x doesnt flood the market with excess product. So pretty much organized monopoly and quota systems which are anti-competitive as you can get. But somehow it's allowed.
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MaestroMike
Gold Member
Hedge funds hit with steepest margin calls since 2020 Covid crisis
Banks ask clients to stump up additional money as global market sell-off knocks value of holdings
www.ft.com
ProtoByte
Weeb Underling
That's what will always happen by definition. The whole point of wealth and power are the benefits and the ability to insulate yourself from wider problems.
The "greater good" is what raises the general bar for living standards. You talk about Canada in a different post: If the protectionism on agricultural products was rescinded, that would suck for Canadian farmers, but not so much for everyone else.
People often confuse their ideas about the social conditions of the past with the economic conditions of the past. Anyone who says "things were better in the '50s" and that a poor person back then had a better living standard because tariffs on imported cars were high is fantasist who wasn't there or a moron.
Housing for example: The average house was literally more than 1000 sq ft smaller than today; piling in more people per family btw, as we have way lower fertility rates and multigenerational housing doesn't exist. And house ownership is higher today than it was back then.
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Great Auk
Member
Unrestricted global free trade is only good for the rich, the working man always loses in such a scenario.
It's why it's the preferred trade condition under unfettered capitalism. The guys at the top WANT zero tariffs and global free trade. It increases their bottom line.
I'm super pro capitalism, but not when it exploits and sells out the American citizen and worker.
Things should have never been allowed to get as bad as they did to begin with.
And for the people who say manufacturing jobs are only for the third world now, USA is still responsible for 17% of global manufacturing. It seems to me that Americans are more than happy to do these jobs if you don't ship them overseas for peasants to do them instead.
It's why it's the preferred trade condition under unfettered capitalism. The guys at the top WANT zero tariffs and global free trade. It increases their bottom line.
I'm super pro capitalism, but not when it exploits and sells out the American citizen and worker.
Things should have never been allowed to get as bad as they did to begin with.
And for the people who say manufacturing jobs are only for the third world now, USA is still responsible for 17% of global manufacturing. It seems to me that Americans are more than happy to do these jobs if you don't ship them overseas for peasants to do them instead.
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DrFigs
Member
Americans want high paying manufacturing jobs that are capital intensive. Not low-skill sweatshop labor type of manufacturing. It just seems like we actually are better off relying on other countries for some things and not every type of manufacturing should be encouraged. This applies more broadly. Are we sure we want to grow bananas and tropical fruit in the U.S. or whatever else? Is this something we can even reasonably do? or are tariffs on countries that supply these things kind of idiotic?
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Unemployment is low, the US dollar is the global reserve currency, the US economy attracts the most foreign capital by far, US businesses dominate global markets, and the US has massive leverage over global trade rules which it uses to its advantage. The United States is the top destination for workers internationally.
In your quote, the United States is “the rich”. There are certainly issues of wealth inequality but these are largely domestic policy issues.
List of countries by wealth per adult - Wikipedia
For a thread that’s about stocks and investment and for a person who is pro-capitalism, you should understand how Capital functions to boost the economy and enhance your wealth. Calls for the government to forcibly restore low productivity jobs to appease the candlemakers and telephone switchboard operators of today will not result in good outcomes for investors or the people.
MaestroMike
Gold Member
Get ready for coffee price increases even though we don’t produce any coffee same with Chocolate. Cocoa prices are already hella high we’re hitting countries with across the board tariffs with the stuff we don’t or can’t make and jobs we don’t want and taxing ourselves for no reason
StreetsofBeige
Gold Member
You can tell chocolate/cocoa prices have gone up without even seeing any commodity charts.
Over the past few years, many grocery stores near me have their bakery section stop making in-house chocolate cookies, muffins and cakes.
DrFigs
Member
i didn't even think about that. like starbucks and dunkin are for sure in trouble. the downstream effects are kind of insane when you apply tariffs this broadly.
MaestroMike
Gold Member
I ordered 12 of these hersheys cocoa powders to cover me until next year I couldn’t find any on my shelves for like two months I figured there was some shortage going on
Hershey's Natural Unsweetened Cocoa - 8oz
Read reviews and buy Hershey's Natural Unsweetened Cocoa - 8oz at Target. Choose from contactless Same Day Delivery, Drive Up and more.
www.target.com
The baking dark chocolate bars that I get definitely shot up too I usually wait for a sale to clear out the shelves but last one was on Christmas and I’m not sure if a sale is coming soon so I’m probably going to start stocking up on those before tariffs fully hit
Great Auk
Member
Unemployment is low, the US dollar is the global reserve currency, the US economy attracts the most foreign capital by far, US businesses dominate global markets, and the US has massive leverage over global trade rules which it uses to its advantage. The United States is the top destination for workers internationally.
In your quote, the United States is “the rich”. There are certainly issues of wealth inequality but these are largely domestic policy issues.
List of countries by wealth per adult - Wikipedia
en.wikipedia.org
For a thread that’s about stocks and investment and for a person who is pro-capitalism, you should understand how Capital functions to boost the economy and enhance your wealth. Calls for the government to forcibly restore low productivity jobs to appease the candlemakers and telephone switchboard operators of today will not result in good outcomes for investors or the people.
I think it's kind of messed up to call all Americans rich just because they live in the US. There used to be a rich manufacturing sector across the Midwest that has largely disappeared. These weren't shoemakers jobs (even though we still make shoes in the US!)
These were good paying solid jobs that supported people.
I don't want the lowest of the low jobs to return to the US. I don't think we necessarily need those jobs either. And for the record, I don't think across the board tariffs is a good idea.
I don't agree with across the board tariffs. There are certain industries that we'll never be competitive at due to climate, geography, etc. I agree. But I'm not talking about growing bananas or harvesting Palm Oil.
There are lots of jobs that have been shipped overseas because they can pay much less and probably pollute a lot more.
Why do high end semiconductors have to be made largely in Taiwan? That's not peasant work. Why does an American company have to build cars in Mexico? That is not peasant work.
Why should we be importing steel? These are not jobs sewing clothes.
Those are the types of jobs I'm talking about when I say they should either return or begin to build that industry in the US.
freefornow
Member
At around 23 minutes she states that many companies have announced that they will be returning manufacturing to US. Does anyone know who these are? And the scale of return?
Could we see a situation where Company A who has all manufacturing plants in Asia only return a small fraction of manufacturing to US? Eg: Company A has 10 plants in Asia each employing 1000 workers builds a small manufacturing plant in US employing 100 workers. Would this meet Trumps requirments? (or his promise on the election trail).
The United States is among the wealthiest countries in the world and the average American earns an income that would place them roughly among top 1-2% globally. In terms of assets, more than 19 million Americans are in the top 1%, more than any other country in the world. Even just having a net worth of $5,000 makes you wealthier than half the global population. Economically, Americans enjoy one of the best outcomes in the world.
Yes, certain demographics (African American, Natives) may face third world outcomes depending on a host of variables. Yes, there may be wealth inequalities in the US. Yes, there may be standard of living issues to address.
These are all domestic governance issues regarding how the unprecedented individual wealth is managed in the US. Not a sign that the economy is failing or capitalism is bad.
The United States exported low productivity jobs so that investors can focus more of its labour capital on higher productivity work like research and design or technology improvements. Higher education is now mandatory for economic competitiveness. There is no going back to the 1950’s. Low cost manual labour is just a stopgap between major capital investments to phase out these jobs permanently.
You still think of manufacturing as this:
And not this:
Great Auk
Member
It may be wealthy as a whole but even if you make 25K annually and that makes you richer than most people on Earth, when rent costs 1500 a month, what difference does it make? You're still poor, just with bigger numbers since everything costs dramatically more than in other countries.
Btw there are almost TRIPLE the number of white Americans that are in poverty compared to black Americans, about 8 million black Americans below the poverty line compared to about 22 million white Americans bewlo the poverty line.
A big part of how they are in poverty is the hollowed out manufacturing sector.
The most successful demographic in the United States are Asian Americans.
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StreetsofBeige
Gold Member
I get what some of you are saying about about bringing back manufacturing might dumb things down, but I'm for trying to keep. Not everyone out there is a STEM, business or lawyer who makes good money the white collar desk jobber way.
Some people need blue collar jobs because that's what they like and have skills for. Why solely rely on overseas foreigner production and shipping it back?
Expecting the US to ignore general manufacturing jobs and only focus on the high end ones is insane to me. Most consumer goods companies (the stuff you see at Walmart and grocery stores for $10 or less) are mass produced in factories. The people working there can range from highly skilled managers or repair guys, but also to lower skilled line workers helping churn out shitloads of let's say 99 cent chocolate bars.
So youre saying who gives a shit about these jobs paying maybe $20/hr and factories and let them move overseas instead of trying to keep them? Some of these giant manufacturing facilities that make tons of different products can be 1000 workers. Then add all the warehousing and trucking/shipping workers too. But if Nvidia says they'll build a plant paying $40/hr thats ok to keep?
Some people need blue collar jobs because that's what they like and have skills for. Why solely rely on overseas foreigner production and shipping it back?
Expecting the US to ignore general manufacturing jobs and only focus on the high end ones is insane to me. Most consumer goods companies (the stuff you see at Walmart and grocery stores for $10 or less) are mass produced in factories. The people working there can range from highly skilled managers or repair guys, but also to lower skilled line workers helping churn out shitloads of let's say 99 cent chocolate bars.
So youre saying who gives a shit about these jobs paying maybe $20/hr and factories and let them move overseas instead of trying to keep them? Some of these giant manufacturing facilities that make tons of different products can be 1000 workers. Then add all the warehousing and trucking/shipping workers too. But if Nvidia says they'll build a plant paying $40/hr thats ok to keep?
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Kittehkraken
Member
But in terms of trade deficits, Trump said he has spoken with a lot of leaders in Europe and Asia, who are "dying" to make a deal, but as long as there are deficits, he is not going to do that.
"A deficit is a loss," he said. "We’re going to have surpluses, or we’re, at worst, going to be breaking even. But China would be the worst in the group because the deficit is so big, and it’s not sustainable.
Trump says US not willing to make deal with China unless trade deficit is solved
President Trump said on Sunday during a gaggle with reporters on Air Force One that he is only willing to make a trade deal with China if the deficit is solved.www.foxnews.com
The next few months will be fun.
MaestroMike
Gold Member
Great Auk
Member
You know who it is about
You make this post, but can you explain how in any way this benefits the POTUS?
IntentionalPun
Ask me about my wife's perfect butthole
Trade deficits won’t last long if Americans can’t afford to buy anything.
JORMBO
Darkness no more
Tomorrow will be fun 
I'd buy some of the dip, but it keeps dipping. And if it keeps dipping then we all have to start worrying about layoffs and maybe needing that money.
I think they should have focused on bringing critical production back. Things like medicine, crude material refinement, etc. It's not urgent to bring back sowing tshirts or whatever. The giant tariffs across the board are crazy. We can't expect smaller countries to buy equal amounts of stuff from us as we buy from them.
I'd buy some of the dip, but it keeps dipping. And if it keeps dipping then we all have to start worrying about layoffs and maybe needing that money.
I think they should have focused on bringing critical production back. Things like medicine, crude material refinement, etc. It's not urgent to bring back sowing tshirts or whatever. The giant tariffs across the board are crazy. We can't expect smaller countries to buy equal amounts of stuff from us as we buy from them.
PSYGN
Member
Tomorrow will be fun
I'd buy some of the dip, but it keeps dipping. And if it keeps dipping then we all have to start worrying about layoffs and maybe needing that money.
I think they should have focused on bringing critical production back. Things like medicine, crude material refinement, etc. It's not urgent to bring back sowing tshirts or whatever. The giant tariffs across the board are crazy. We can't expect smaller countries to buy equal amounts of stuff from us as we buy from them.
You're being too rational
Ozzy Onya A2Z
Member
Nice to know I closed out most of my speculative positions in the last 1-2 years. I've only got long term ETF type stuff nowadays, that can just ride it out for years. Son's and my ETFs were up 17% this year, but now with recent events only +3%. Such is the world markets currently.
Ozzy Onya A2Z
Member
I doubt a full turn around. Long time ago I read Trump's Art of the Deal and it's a basic strategy of his, push out bat crazy shit that gets shock and awe reactions and then go for what you really want to maximise and get it done.
Gp1
Member
It's sales 101. Never make the first offer, if you have to make the first offer, make it unattainably low and wait for the counterpart.
The thing is, every single diplomat, economist, business manager etc, know this kind of thing.
Ozzy Onya A2Z
Member
StreetsofBeige
Gold Member
Yup. It's such a basic concept salesmanship and negotiations dont even have to apply to business. Anyone in a sports pool that allows poolies to trade with each other faces the same shit. Someone starts off a trade offer wildly in their favour. Then you both go back and forth and come to an agreement. Or just balk. The chances of someone making the first move offering you an awesome deal in your favour or a very perfect looking balanced trade is like 1% probability.
Good thing I have some money saved to buy ETFs. Already bought little bit on Friday. Today EU should officially announce their response to the steel and aluminum tariffs. Not the 20% that is supposed to go in effect on Wednesday. Will probably wait for that and then buy a bit more. I do think this is actually worse situation than some in this thread think. Trump has been digging in over the weekend, and while he is a weather vane, I think he is too invested in this to make sudden turn around. At least until he get a couple wins he can market.
The negotiations with Vietnam said to be a positive sign on Friday seem to have amounted to nothing so far with the Vietnam now asking a 45 day delay to the tariff implementation. There is also news of other countries trying to negotiate, but getting nowhere. Probably part of the reason is that the numbers Trump touted as the reason for this are completely fake and there are no high tariffs to lower in most cases. And the issues with China that alone would be a major market mover. I don't see any signs of China budging and that issue isn't going to be solved any time soon. Plus with Trump breaking his own treaties trust in the US as trading partner is lower than anytime this century at least. Unless Trump suddenly changes or the Republicans grow balls and put some restrictions on him next couple years are going to rough.
The negotiations with Vietnam said to be a positive sign on Friday seem to have amounted to nothing so far with the Vietnam now asking a 45 day delay to the tariff implementation. There is also news of other countries trying to negotiate, but getting nowhere. Probably part of the reason is that the numbers Trump touted as the reason for this are completely fake and there are no high tariffs to lower in most cases. And the issues with China that alone would be a major market mover. I don't see any signs of China budging and that issue isn't going to be solved any time soon. Plus with Trump breaking his own treaties trust in the US as trading partner is lower than anytime this century at least. Unless Trump suddenly changes or the Republicans grow balls and put some restrictions on him next couple years are going to rough.
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Dr.D00p
Member
Probably seeing the beginning of the end of the Dollar as the World's reserve currency with all this.
Won't happen overnight of course but trust in America going forwards has been shattered and slowly but surely, countries and financial institutions will start to divest themselves of their reliance on the American currency.
Won't happen overnight of course but trust in America going forwards has been shattered and slowly but surely, countries and financial institutions will start to divest themselves of their reliance on the American currency.
Sybrix
Member
Who'd a thought that Crypto only exists because of FIAT & can only exist as long as FIAT does.
Lunarorbit
Member
Apparently you don't read the news cause everything they wrote is true.
Krasnov has tanked the market and you're wondering why? It's all written in project 2025 my dude. Destroy the market and let the techno bros buy it all up.
Dejoy destroyed the postal service after trump put him in. All the small businesses that deliver the mail are getting put under including my families. Same thing that happened to farms. Destroy, buy, consolidate.
Pure copium as inflation is ramping up and the dollar will be removed as the reserve currency. Huge deal.
Maiden Voyage
Gold™ Member
Yeah good sign but how long will it hold after open I wonder.
Going to read the letter by Jamie Dimon and digest his thoughts.