Sure... except we're talking about a game that's already been released before and has both infamy and notoriety attached to it. TLOUP2 was a massive Sony first party game back on the PS4, it was specifically designed and released to attract controversy, and it was a hot button topic for quite a while. It's also a sequel to a beloved title that also released on Steam. All of that together... and it couldn't at least match the original's Steam numbers? Either Part 1 didn't create new fans of the series such to enable Part 2 to be successful, or, Part 2's infamy pushed people away - because launch numbers of a big budget sequel shouldn't be smaller than the original's already small numbers unless the same people who played the original didn't turn up for the sequel.
Except Sony
stated that it's strategy was specifically designed to push people to future titles, either on PS5 at launch, or, to their delayed PC release later. Sony's preferred outcome: buy GOW on PC, buy a PS5 for Ragnarok. But Sony will also accept: buy GOW on PC, buy Ragnarok on PC later. Given TLOUP2 was a PS4 title, I'd imagine the later was more expected after TLOUP1 launched on Steam. So, clearly the goal
is to grow their base. You adding "leaps and bounds" is just a qualifier to provide yourself an out: "Sony didn't expect the game to be
the best selling game of all time!". Which, of course, no one is saying - I literally just highlighted it's performed worse that P1's fairly small CCUs. As I've said of the original on PS4: no one spends 300% of the budget to expect just 50% of the sales. Based on Sony's strategy and their spend on the title, I imagine P2 was expected to sell more than P1.
Will the show provide it a boost? Yeah, possible. But I'm not sure it'll be big enough to add 30% a few weeks after launch.