Support NeoGAF

[Maledict]

It might just be the way you are writing things, butt your posts come across in exactly the same way the gamergate false flag posts do - 'I'm just asking questions, maybe immigration is the real problem!'. Apologies for misreading the tone if that's not the case.

And yeah, election would make sense, although the timing will be odd as we're so used to May elections now. Although I think it could be on May 30th if she announces today with the 6 week time limit?

 

[kmag]

I'm not attempting to blame anything on anything! I just asked if slowing or stopping population growth would help. Despite two replies noone really seems interested in answering my question, but rather leaping at shadows.

I'm all too aware of property prices in Preston funnily enough. I've got a bunch of mates there and we're all at the age where we're buying houses (five of us in the last year). It does pain me to see that they get a house twice as big for half as much as I can get down here in Bristol :-(



I'm putting my money on this. May's not going to get a safer opportunity than right now.

In answer to your question. It would probably reduce prices in some areas (probably not uniformely) but would also cause massive economic problems. Our current economic growth is pretty much predicated on the current levels of population expansion, if you remove that before the baby boomers are all gone, you're left with an extremely old population with massive social entitlements and a receding economic base with which to fund those entitlements. See Japan but without the productivity.

Longer term as part of a gradual process (I'm talking multiple decades) then sure you could manage to reform the economy around a static population.

 

[mo60]

It might just be the way you are writing things, butt your posts come across in exactly the same way the gamergate false flag posts do - 'I'm just asking questions, maybe immigration is the real problem!'. Apologies for misreading the tone if that's not the case.

And yeah, election would make sense, although the timing will be odd as we're so used to May elections now. Although I think it could be on May 30th if she announces today with the 6 week time limit?

Six weeks to prepare for an election and campaign?

Don't think she will set an election for May if she does it. Probably somewhere between June-September is likely, but I think she will set an election before the german parliamentary elections if she does that.

 

[Deleted member 231381]

So are we going with:

Snap election (wouldn't be that snap, you'd have to push the FPTA repeal through the Lords which could take a while if they got arsey)

War (with who?)

Resignation (but why?)

Brexit got cancelled (a man can dream)

 

[Uzzy]

Finally, war with Spain. I'm going to join the Navy and make my fortune raiding the Spanish treasure fleet.

Might just be able to buy a house then too.

 

[mo60]

So are we going with:

Snap election (wouldn't be that snap, you'd have to push the FPTA repeal through the Lords which could take a while if they got arsey)

War (with who?)

Resignation (but why?)

Brexit got cancelled (a man can dream)

Snap election may not be likely if she has to worry about the FTPA repeal.She won't resign probably and brexit won't be canceled.War is not likely at this point. It could easily be an update on the brexit situation, something foreign policy related not connected to war or a new policy annoucement.It could be a personal annoucement to.

 

[kmag]

So are we going with:

Snap election (wouldn't be that snap, you'd have to push the FPTA repeal through the Lords which could take a while if they got arsey)

War (with who?)

Resignation (but why?)

Brexit got cancelled (a man can dream)

Some rumours seem to be popping up about May's health. She's a type 1 diabetic, and sadly liver and arterial issues are extremely common in type 1 diabetics over 60.

I'd say the announcement is much to do about nothing, but it's extremely rare for a short notice announcement from Downing Street. Lizzie or Phil popped their clogs?

 

[JonathanEx]

So are we going with:

Snap election (wouldn't be that snap, you'd have to push the FPTA repeal through the Lords which could take a while if they got arsey)

War (with who?)

Resignation (but why?)

Brexit got cancelled (a man can dream)

I'm currently leaning towards for snap election or resignation (health?).

Thing I'm not sure of with snap is why she'd announce it in this way if it takes so much process to happen. Unless she's doing it to make a point that it needs to happen.

 

[War Peaceman]

Speculating about health is always a weird one.

I'm going with election - we need to show the EU that the government's position is strong and supported*.

*not sure on the negotiation logic but good for personal politics

 

[QuicheFontaine]

It might just be the way you are writing things, butt your posts come across in exactly the same way the gamergate false flag posts do - 'I'm just asking questions, maybe immigration is the real problem!'. Apologies for misreading the tone if that's not the case.

And yeah, election would make sense, although the timing will be odd as we're so used to May elections now. Although I think it could be on May 30th if she announces today with the 6 week time limit?

I'm a simple guy, so you can safely take anything I say on here at face value

I wasn't trying to tease a "yes" out of someone just so that I could go "Aha! Immigants, I knew it was them". I just was hoping for a bit of discussion and to maybe learn something.

In answer to your question. It would probably reduce prices in some areas (probably not uniformely) but would also cause massive economic problems. Our current economic growth is pretty much predicated on the current levels of population expansion, if you remove that before the baby boomers are all gone, you're left with an extremely old population with massive social entitlements and a receding economic base with which to fund those entitlements. See Japan but without the productivity.

Longer term as part of a gradual process (I'm talking multiple decades) then sure you could manage to reform the economy around a static population.

Yeah, the Japan thread is what I was thinking of really - I posted in that one too. Everyone was talking like it was the worst thing ever when I was thinking hey maybe some good things can come from this. I always think of these things as if we were talking about Pitcairn or something. The popultation going down by a third wouldn't be the end of the world there, everyone would have more space, fewer people would have to share the same number of fish, etc. etc.

I'm sure there's a reason those things don't scale up to major economies, but the "why" of that is what I find interesting, and what I want to know!

I do understand that capitalism has like a built in requirement for endless growth, but there's different "types" of capitalism, right? Or we could move to another economic system altogether, these things aren't set in stone.

 

[RedSparrows]

Speculating about health is always a weird one.

I'm going with election - we need to show the EU that the government's position is strong and supported*.

*not sure on the negotiation logic but good for personal politics

Implying they know the united will of the people blather was just blather. Not a great loss to them i guess.

 

[Deleted member 231381]

Some rumours seem to be popping up about May's health. She's a type 1 diabetic, and sadly liver and arterial issues are extremely common in type 1 diabetics over 60.

I'd say the announcement is much to do about nothing, but it's extremely rare for a short notice announcement from Downing Street. Lizzie or Phil popped their clogs?

The Prime Minister doesn't announce the Queen's death; that's a matter for Buckingham Palace (at least that's the established precedent).

 

[Hazzuh]

Announcing direct rule in NI is a possibility. Negotiations were supposed to continue today iirc but they certainly could have collapsed.

 

[kmag]

The Prime Minister doesn't announce the Queen's death; that's a matter for Buckingham Palace (at least that's the established precedent).

Maybe Buckingham Palace announce at 11. And May does the stability conference at 11.15?

I'm spitballing. It's probably a snap election or resignation.

 

[Deleted member 231381]

Announcing direct rule in NI is a possibility. Negotiations were supposed to continue today iirc but they certainly could have collapsed.

Meaning absolutely no offence to the land of my grandfather, but... would that really merit an urgent statement? Nobody who isn't Nirish cares about Nireland.

 

[sammex]

I'm sceptical about a snap election. Although it would increase the Tory majority at the moment, provide a mandate for hard brexit, etc it would possibly lead to Labour finally managing to get rid of Corbyn and in the long term the Conservatives would be better off if he stuck around until 2020.

Saying that, he'd probably refuse to resign so maybe they can get the best of both worlds.

 

[Deleted member 231381]

Corbyn would absolutely refuse to resign until either the 5% nomination amendment passes or the Labour soft-left guarantee they will lend nominations to a successor candidate. The Labour Party is in gridlock until that happens (or Corbyn dies, if we want to be morbid, or if the Labour Party just outright splits).

 

[Uzzy]

Guardian just said that the Queen is in residence at Windsor Palace anyway.

 

[Protome]

Meaning absolutely no offence to the land of my grandfather, but... would that really merit an urgent statement? Nobody who isn't Nirish cares about Nireland.

May especially doesn't care about Nireland (or any part of the UK that isn't England.) Someone else would make that announcement.

 

[QuicheFontaine]

Well this is quite exciting for a Tuesday morning

 

[Deleted member 231381]

Odds are sky-rocketing on May's resignation as of the last two-three minutes. Something leaked?

 

[kmag]

Odds are sky-rocketing on May's resignation as of the last two-three minutes. Something leaked?

It's definitely party political judging by the lectern. Would a call for an election be classed as party political? Pre FTPA obviously not, but post that there's some debate because it's no longer the PM's call.

 

[Deleted member 231381]

Odds are sky-rocketing on May's resignation as of the last two-three minutes. Something leaked?

Looks like they lost money 'cause the Beeb is saying general election, June 8th.

 

[*Splinter]

So are we going with:

Snap election (wouldn't be that snap, you'd have to push the FPTA repeal through the Lords which could take a while if they got arsey)

War (with who?)

Resignation (but why?)

Brexit got cancelled (a man can dream)

Now now, whatever it is it's a safe bet we'll all end up feeling disappointed by it.

 

[phisheep]

Election June 8th. Here we go again!

 

[Deleted member 231381]

Excuse me while I go to my safe room and play the song of my people.

 

[FlammableD]

This is going to be a fucking disaster.

 

[phisheep]

This is going to be a fucking disaster.

Well, it'll be a disaster for somebody.

 

[kmag]

What happened to now's not the time guys?

 

[QuicheFontaine]

What happened to now's not the time guys?

44% Tory polls happened

Hard to argue that this isn't sliiiiiiiightly opportunistic lol

 

[phisheep]

Quoting from Labour Uncut.

Labour is on the cusp of genuine power where it can help shape the lives of millions of people.

(Not really on this subject, but too good a quote to miss.)

 

[Deleted member 231381]

Quoting from Labour Uncut.



(Not really on this subject, but too good a quote to miss.)

tbf that's probably true re: the Mayoral elections.

 

[Razzer]

Well I was planning on spending May/June relaxing after finishing my final uni assignments. Guess I gotta go home and volunteer now, the price of living in a swing seat.

 

[QuicheFontaine]

tbf that's probably true re: the Mayoral elections.

Genuinely considering voting Labour for Metro Mayor, based solely on the fact that they're the only ones who bothered sending me a pamphlet.

 

[CyclopsRock]

Game on!

 

[CCS]

Think I may as well vote Lib Dems, live in one of the safest Tory seats in the country so I may as well send a message that I approve of their anti-Brexit stance.

 

[*Splinter]

So it's pretty obviously going to be a Tory landslide, but what is Scotland expected to do? Could the SNP lose seats here?

Think I may as well vote Lib Dems, live in one of the safest Tory seats in the country so I may as well send a message that I approve of their anti-Brexit stance.

Ditto, I guess. Although I think of it as more anti-Corbyn than anti-Brexit.

 

[Deleted member 231381]

So it's pretty obviously going to be a Tory landslide, but what is Scotland expected to do? Could the SNP lose seats here?

Based on current Scotland Westminster voting intentions, the SNP would lose 2 seats to the Conservatives (Berwickshire and Dumfries); no other seats would change hands.

 

[CCS]

So it's pretty obviously going to be a Tory landslide, but what is Scotland expected to do? Could the SNP lose seats here?


Ditto, I guess. Although I think of it as more anti-Corbyn than anti-Brexit.

True, six of one half a dozen of the other I guess.

 

[kmag]

Based on current Scotland Westminster voting intentions, the SNP would lose 2 seats to the Conservatives (Berwickshire and Dumfries); no other seats would change hands.

I think the SNP will lose four (remember you've got two SNP MP's currently suspended who the party will need to make a decision on) but might gain Ian Murray's and Carmichael's seat. That's just based on a bit of anecdotal evidence from talking to a few Scottish Labour guys I know.

 

[Rodhull]

I think the SNP will lose four (remember you've got two SNP MP's currently suspended who the party will need to make a decision on) but might gain Ian Murray's and Carmichael's seat. That's just based on a bit of anecdotal evidence from talking to a few Scottish Labour guys I know.

I can't see Carmichael losing surely? After winning so comfortably last time despite memogate it seems hard to see him being defeated.

Murray and possibly even Mundell seem more likely though but you'd have to imagine the SNAP will lose some. The last time was just too freak a result to be repeated exactly again.

Still see SNP winning the vast majority obviously though. First past the post will see to that.

 

[Beefy]

Come on Corbyn.

Spoiler

 

[kmag]

I can't see Carmichael losing surely? After winning so comfortably last time despite memogate it seems hard to see him being defeated.

Murray and possibly even Mundell seem more likely though but you'd have to imagine the SNAP will lose some. The last time was just too freak a result to be repeated exactly again.

Still see SNP winning the vast majority obviously though. First past the post will see to that.

His majority was hardly comfortable it's only 817. We've also had the court case since then, where it was proved he had lied but he got off on a technicality.

 

[Deleted member 231381]

I think the SNP will lose four (remember you've got two SNP MP's currently suspended who the party will need to make a decision on) but might gain Ian Murray's and Carmichael's seat. That's just based on a bit of anecdotal evidence from talking to a few Scottish Labour guys I know.

Yeah, I'm just doing basic UNS, I don't have the necessary local knowledge to do anything more accurate. Local factors could change another seat here or there.

 

[kmag]

Yeah, I'm just doing basic UNS, I don't have the necessary local knowledge to do anything more accurate. Local factors could change another seat here or there.

Looking at it, there 7 constituencies which you'd think could conceivably change.

Renfrewshire East - SNP have a 3700 lead over labour
Orkney/Shetland - Lib Dem have 820 vote lead over SNP
Berwick/Roxburgh/Selkirk - SNP have 330 vote lead over Tories
Dumfrieshire/Clydesdale/Tweedale - Tory 790 vote lead over SNP
Dunbartonshire East - SNP 2100 vote lead over Lib Dems
Edinburgh South - Labour 2600 vote lead over SNP
Edinburgh West - SNP 3200 vote lead over Lib Dem

In most of the other Constituencies SNP have over 50% of the votes, or very high 40+% which means tactical voting wouldn't make any real difference unless it's a real swing election or SNP turnout is well down (I don't see either occurring). I think the SNP have a good chance to lose Berwick, Dumfries, Renfrewshire and Dumbartonshire East and maybe pick up Orkney and Edinburgh South.

Probably worst case for the SNP is 50-52 seats and best case is probably 56.

 

[Deleted member 231381]

Crazy thing would be if they took the Lab and Lib seats but the Conservatives took both two within their reach. Scotland would be SNP and Tory only!

 

[kmag]

Crazy thing would be if they took the Lab and Lib seats but the Conservatives took both two within their reach. Scotland would be SNP and Tory only!

Berwick and Dumfries are basically English anyway...

 

[Rodhull]

His majority was hardly comfortable it's only 817. We've also had the court case since then, where it was proved he had lied but he got off on a technicality.

Ah yes you're right sorry, I was getting him confused with the Scottish Parliament results where the lib dems won convincingly for both Orkney and Shetland.

 

[anonymous_abc]

So are the libdems going to run exclusively on the platform of revoking A50?

 

[Deleted member 231381]

Berwick and Dumfries are basically English anyway...

Richard III should have kept going, tbh.