Blargonaut
Banned
reposting all relevant information for new 50ppp, don't care
Zubz, pls ignore all of this in favour of your scum narrative, kthxbye
and
good night, good night
parting is etc.
Zubz, pls ignore all of this in favour of your scum narrative, kthxbye
oh, for the sake of real #Town
Let's actually illustrate how this is all gonna play out after Today, shall we?
▶
- {RIP D1}
[m] Gorlak ORDINARY GANGREL, Town-aligned Citizen; n/a- {RIP N1}
[m] AbsolutBro ORDINARY VENTRUE, Town-aligned Citizen; n/a- {RIP D2}
[m] MickD ORDINARY BRUJAH, Town-aligned Citizen; n/a- {RIP N2}
[m] squidyj ORDINARY TOREADOR, Town-aligned Citizen; n/a- {RIP D3}
[m] TheWorthyEdge -> [m] Christina Mackenzie GARY GOLDEN, PRIMOGEN OF THE NOSFERATU, Town-aligned 2-shot Commuter (command name: OBFUSCATE); N1: ??, N2: ??, ...- {RIP N3}
[m] Swamped ORDINARY MALKAVIAN, Town-aligned Citizen; n/a- {RIP D4, Poisoned on N2}
[m] Blargonaut JEANETTE VOERMAN, BARONESS OF SANTA MONICA, Town-aligned Lover/Roleblocker (command name: SEDUCE); N1: refrained from Power use in favour of partner's, N2: refrained from Power use in favour of partner's, N3: refrained from Power use in favour of partner's, ...- {RIP D4, Poisoned on N2}
[m] Mazre THERESE VOERMAN, BARONESS OF SANTA MONICA, Town-aligned Lover/Redirector; N1: redirected batsnacks to Trigger, N2: redirected Swamped to Christina Mackenzie, N3: redirected batsnacks to Swamped, ...- {RIP D4, voted out}
[m] Trigger / whoever gets lynched Today ??- {RIP N4}
[m] Satanic Saint / whoever gets Night-killed tonight ??---
- [m] Dr. Worm ??
- [m] Dusk Soldier ??
- [m] Fat4all ??
- [m] Hobohodo ??
- [m] infinit777 ??
- [m] batsnacks ??
- [m] StMeph ??
- [m] Timeaisis ??
- [m] Ynnek7 ??
- [m] Zubz ??
20 players. By D5, 10 remaining.
5? Town.
5? or 4? Mafia.
Possibly 1 Neutral if 4 Mafia.
TODAY, DAY 4: 13 players remaining; 8? Town, 5? Mafia (or 4? Mafia + 1 Neutral).
so, if we lynch Town Today:
END OF TODAY, DAY 4: 10 players remaining; 5? Town, 5? Mafia (or 4? Mafia + 1 Neutral).
If there's 5 Mafia; they kill 1 player Tonight so it'll be 9 players remaining at D5-start. 4 Town, 5 Mafia.
Outnumbering us, Mafia instantly wins at D5-start. GAME OVER.
If there's 4 Mafia; they kill 1 player Tonight so it'll be 9 players remaining at D5-start. 5 Town, 4 Mafia or 4 Town, 4 Mafia, 1 Neutral.
If it's 5 Town, 4 Mafia,; game continues into D5 under normal conditions. CONTINUE.
If it's 4 Town, 4 Mafia, 1 Neutral; and, if Mafia's Win condition requires outnumbering us, then game continues into D5, but under LYLO conditions. CONTINUE, BUT LYLO.
If it's 4 Town, 4 Mafia, 1 Neutral; and, Mafia's Win condition doesn't require outnumbering us (is "have equal numbers to Town" only), then Mafia wins by D5-start. GAME OVER.
but, if we lynch Mafia Today:
END OF TODAY, DAY 4: 10 players remaining; 6? Town, 4? Mafia (or 3? Mafia + 1 Neutral).
If there's 4 Mafia; they kill 1 player Tonight so it'll be 9 players remaining at D5-start. 5 Town, 4 Mafia
If it's 5 Town, 4 Mafia,; game continues into D5 under normal conditions. CONTINUE.
If there's 3 Mafia; they kill 1 player Tonight so it'll be 9 players remaining at D5-start. 6 Town, 3 Mafia, or 5 Town, 3 Mafia, 1 Neutral.
If it's 6 Town, 3 Mafia,; game continues into D5 under normal conditions. CONTINUE.
If it's 5 Town, 3 Mafia, 1 Neutral; game continues into D5 under normal conditions. CONTINUE.
...alright, Zubz-y et al.
If we kill off a Townie Today; there are timelines present where this game could be in LYLO Tomorrow, and there's even the darkest timeline in which Town loses instantly at Today's end.
For the uninitiated amongst us, "LYLO" MEANS "Lynch or Lose". It means that the game is in a critical situation where Town MUST eliminate someone who's Mafia that Day, or else Town will lose the game.
Also, a single vote placed on the wrong, non-Mafia person at any moment during LYLO, WILL 95% RESULT in Town losing the game, because at LYLO the player count is so low that all of the Mafia team can immediately pile on to create a majority before Town has a chance to react.
If we kill a Town player Today, there's a 50% chance we instantly lose the game, and a 25% chance we end up in LYLO Tomorrow.
So, Town.
LISTEN.
Look at who's died so far. Do you realize the sitch we're in?
Only 1 Town-aligned Power Role has died so far (Christina Mackenzie, 2-shot Town Commuter). But, after Mazre and I shrug off, Town will have lost their Roleblocker and Redirector Today. That'll be 3 Town PRs, gone.
BUT--
--you know who HASN'T died? That's right. The TOWN fuckin' INVESTIGATOR(well, if there even is one in this game, which there 95% MUST be or else we've been ********************** since the very beginning considering the apparent dearth of Town PRs here).
That means that Tomorrow, provided that the Investigator survives Tonight (N4); even if the Investigator hasn't caught any Mafia from N1 to N4, they will still be able to confirm that 4 out of the 10 remaining players Tomorrow are Town or Neutral (5 out of 10, if Investigator included). Do you understand what this means?
This means that Tomorrow, if LYLO, the Investigator will be able to effectively draw a line in the sand of the player roster, and say something like, "Hi, I'm the Town Investigator! After 4 Nights of hard work in the shadows, these are my results. These 5 players are Town. So these 5 must be Mafia. We lynch down my scum list and we win. GG"
That's a good thing, right?
NO. WRONG.
Let me warn you the fuck.
Since you'll most likely be in "LYLO" Tomorrow, D5; all Mafia has to do to win Tomorrow, is have one of their members claim to be the Town Investigator, and then frame one of you real Town-aligned fucks as Mafia. Subsequently, that framed player will be lynched, and Town will thereby lose.
And, even if the REAL-ass Town Investigator survives Tonight to be able to come forward and reveal themselves Tomorrow; if any one of the Mafia claims as Town Investigator too, then you'll all be caught in a 2-way war for credibility with no way of confirming which player-claimant is the real Town Investigator. Like doppelgangers before you, you'll have to decide which one to BELIEVE regarding who to lynch Tomorrow.
That's 50/50 odds for outcomes that are either Town instantly losing, or, if you all manage to somehow successfully side with the correct, real Investigator; after lynching scum on D5, you all move forward into D6 with 8 (after D5's lynch and N5's kill) remaining players. That'll be 4? Town, and 4? Mafia (or 3? Mafia +1 Neutral), with the real Investigator surely killed by Mafia during the Night after Tomorrow, N5UNLESS, there is a Doctor in this game to Protect the Investigator during N5. And, not only is this an 'unless" scenario that hinges on the Doctor surviving Tonight, it also hinges on there being a Town Doctor in this game in the first place. Their presence is a possibility, yes, made higher by the fact the Doctor obviously hasn't died yet, but consider that Mazre and I are Town-aligned Redirector and Roleblocker respectively; our Roles are effectively Protective ones, albeit of the active-type. With Roles like ours in this game, would there still be a Town Doctor present, game balance-wise?
To summarize this gloomy future:
- If you mislynch and kill a Townie Today, there's like, a 25% chance that you will be in LYLO Tomorrow. DAY 5: 10 players remaining; 5? Town, 5? Mafia (or 4? Mafia + 1 Neutral).
- During LYLO Tomorrow, all Mafia has to do to win is claim to be a Town Investigator, and frame someone as Mafia. That framed person will be lynched, and Mafia wins.
- Even if the real Town Investigator survives past Tonight to counter-claim the fake usurper one Tomorrow, the process of Town winning from that point on, requires:
1) Town to decide on the correct side of 50/50 odds Tomorrow that the person they're listening to Tomorrow is the real Investigator saying the real Mafia to lynch.- If all these requirements are met (especially the correct-side-of-50/50 choice, which ALL of this hinges on) then during D6 (which would be DAY 6: 8 players remaining; 4? Town, 4? Mafia (or 3? Mafia + 1 Neutral)), Town should simply lynch the fake doppelganger Investigator from D5, who would clearly be Mafia for having tried to usurp the real one during D5's LYLO. Remember.
2) A majority vote in favour of said correct side of 50/50, which entails the real Investigator convincing all of remaining Town while in the face of a team of 5 or 4 Mafia controlling 5 or 4 votes out of 10 as one of them pretends to be said real Investigator; and, if even a single Town-aligned voter is not persuaded by the real one and thus misplaces their vote like the terrible, terrible player they are--? Town loses.
3) The existence of a Town Doctor to Protect the Investigator during the Night after Tomorrow, while taking into game balance consideration that Mazre and I are already Town-aligned Protective Roles (albeit of the active-action type). Is there really room for a Town Doctor?
4) The survival of nigh-cryptozoological Town Doctor and mythical Town Investigator past Tonight.
5) The Doctor successfully protecting the Investigator during N5 onwards, while the Investigator continues to weed out the remaining Mafia.
- And from that Day forward, Town must lynch a Mafia every single Day. If Town mislynches even once, Town loses. And every single one of those Days will be LYLO. Tense. Fun. Yeah?
So.
I'll say it again, if we kill a Town player Today, there's a 50% chance we instantly lose the game, and a 25% chance we end up in LYLO Tomorrow. And if you end up in LYLO, beware the false Town Investigator and don't be hasty in dropping your vote.
Okay?
Now, wait a sec. There's something more I must elaborate regarding this hypothetical Town Investigator...
and
good night, good night
parting is etc.
