COD about to lose a TON of revenue.
It's a bit of a dangerous game for MS at this point. If they do this, and the revenue takes a heavy hit,
AND Game Pass doesn't see a huge sustained surge in subscription revenue, it can have some big implications.
Even aside from Game Pass specifically, I'm talking more in terms of that situation working against Microsoft in ever acquiring another major gaming publisher. Regulators could look at that drop in COD revenue, combined with the continued drop in Xbox revenue (M&A revenue removed from figures), and the closure of several acquired studios etc., as evidence of Microsoft's acquisitions hurting the market. As in, hurting the market's revenue stability, growth prospects, and job security for employees, specifically within the console gaming segment.
And that would basically work against them hard in ever buying another major gaming publisher (at least in the console segment of the market, but potentially others) for a very long time. Why would regulators continue enabling M&As that could be argued are shrinking a portion of the market in real revenue? Plus keep in mind, investors & shareholders would be thinking the same thing, so even among them there'd be increased resistance in MS buying more big publishers (especially if those investors have shares in those publishers as well).
PC Game Pass was the fastest grower at one time, but I think it stagnated along with the rest of Game Pass. But yeah......the question as to how this impacts PC Game Pass is the real question here. I expect if COD does well on GP then MS will announce "growth" but not numbers.
If that happens it will have to be frustrating to some folks. I mean it's COD, it's not some two-bit no-name indie. If any game would be expected to boost GP subs enough so MS could confidently report numbers with the growth, it would be COD.
The peaks & valleys Xbox sees in Game Pass based on key software launches is not like what other subscriptions have with new content launches, is their core issue. Whether or not they can solve for this long-term is the question.
Only way they could is if they actually realized that "one AAA game a quarter" dream Phil was gushing about years ago. But do MS have any strategy to manifest that? Maybe yes, maybe no.
I mean they shut down studios like Tango who could've helped with variety & AA content; OTOH they apparently did that to move up development of games like Fallout 5, which is AAA and would be a big mover especially given the show's been well-received.
That type of cadence would be the only way to truly solve the issue around retention rates and sustaining high sub numbers the whole year. It's also the only way something like Game Pass could in theory actually start pulling away users from platforms like PlayStation, which don't do Day 1 in PS+ for their big AAA releases and (so far) don't have other options for accessing new games a bit cheaper.
"Bit" is the key word there; I don't think MS ever intended GP to be for the super-frugal, super price-conscious casual and mainstream gamers. They probably want a healthily-sized block of core gamers who want to maximize their spending, but otherwise want to do a lot of spending. MS just wants a good chunk of that spending to shift towards a model where they get a bigger cut of the profits, hence Game Pass. Long as they have that block of core subscribers, they wouldn't care so much about frugal spenders at the low-end tiers who might be more willing to drop in & out (heavy churn rates).
However right now MS don't have that block of core subs which is big enough, because a lot of those would-be subscribers are probably on stacked GP subs they got for very cheap years ago. Meanwhile the current month-to-month model option is too broad and covers too many tiers (preferably would want to remove that for the higher tiers and go for locked-in multi-month/year subs as their options).
So how long does it take them to actually get that required cadence? A year? Two? Five? Ten? Never? Their release cadence and consistency so far doesn't inspire a lot of confidence, they'll have to work overtime to change that.