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[Vinci]

Yeah, I don't expect the majority of Wii owners to even know about the peripheral or factor support for it into their purchasing habits.

They don't have to. It's in Wii Sports Resort. And possibly other titles. For all we know at this point, Nintendo might put the thing in with even 3rd party games to ensure it reaches as many people as possible.

 

[Tmac]

I agree that Sony is likely to end up ahead of the 360 worldwide in the end, but Microsoft was always more interested in hurting Sony than winning some console war. And the damage done to Sony this gen, by Microsoft and the (WTF - where did this come from?!) Nintendo, is huge. Microsoft could lose five billion buying exclusives for the 360 till the end of the generation and still consider it a win if it sends Sony flailing backwards.

I kinda half agree with that. It could work brillintly, the problem is, out of nowhere, nintendo pulled off a Wii. Microsoft that on its first attemp achieved an impressive second place, now risk to finish third only.

 

[Xisiqomelir]

GOD of War 3 - MGS is bigger.

GoW2 launched higher than MGS4 did, FWIW.

 

[MechDX]

Anyone have LTD numbers for Uncharted, Resistance and Motorstorm please.

Thanks!

 

[Hero]

Btw some people are counting as the wii selling the same forever. You should not. Mainly because the wii is sold out, therefore those numbers arent acurate. The "real" sales might be much bigger or much lower. Let me explain.

Supose there's currently 3 million people wanting to buy a wii, while 200k new people are added to that pool each month

Month# | Sales | Pool of people waiting to get a wii

1 | 600k | 2.6m
2 | 700k | 2.1m
3 | 600k | 1.7m
4 | 700k | 1.3m
5 | 700k | 0.9m
6 | 700k | 0.4m
7 | 700k | 0.0m
8 | 200k | 0.0m
9 | 200k | 0.0m
0 | 200k | 0.0m
1 | 200k | 0.0m
2 | 200k | 0.0m
3 | 200k | 0.0m


You get my point.

Hey, can you do this again but instead of using 3 million as people wanting to buy a Wii you use 100 million?

 

[Jammy]

So thats the game we're playing.

I'm just in this thread to laugh at all the bitter fanboy tears from all sides. The ones who think Sony is ready to dominate, the ones who think Sony is dead, and the ones who think that somehow, analyzing sales data with their caclulator and an excel spreadsheet make them 'knowledgable gamers'.

I was completely on the fence when I bought my Wii, but I sat down and analyzed the sales data, and how much previous games had sold, and then I decided to make the leap. Thank god for sales data!

:lol You're in a fucking SALES thread. Of course that's the game we're playing. I'm not knocking any of those games. I'm just saying in terms of big exclusives, there isn't much left for PS3. If you want to splooge over Killzone 2 then GTFO.

 

[DangerStepp]

Amazing. My expectations were blown. MGS4... totally a system seller. Excellent news.

 

[gofreak]

Question: How'd Viva Pinata do on the 360?

VP != LBP

 

[Pureauthor]

This is not consistent with real-world economics.

What does the Ku Klux Klan have in common with Real Estate Agents?

 

[jay]

So thats the game we're playing.

I'm just in this thread to laugh at all the bitter fanboy tears from all sides. The ones who think Sony is ready to dominate, the ones who think Sony is dead, and the ones who think that somehow, analyzing sales data with their caclulator and an excel spreadsheet make them 'knowledgable gamers'.

I was completely on the fence when I bought my Wii, but I sat down and analyzed the sales data, and how much previous games had sold, and then I decided to make the leap. Thank god for sales data!

Going into sales threads to make fun of people who like sales threads is so awesome. What's even more awesome is not going into sales threads to make fun of people who like sales threads. You should try it.

 

[indie85]

Let me ask you something: How does Blu-Ray stack up against DVD?

Let me ask you something, How did Blu ray stack up against DVD last year? And now? I think you've guessed whats happening! And what this means for the future...

Little Jimmy won't give a shit because he's having fun moving his Mii avatar. Cinema gaming, which was brought to the forefront with the advent of the Playstation brand, doesn't exist to casuals. Most of them have never heard of KZ2, FF XIII, or any other damned HD game you could mention. They hear 'Wii' in the title of a game and they buy it; it's the only brand with any power this generation.

Yeah, they rushed to 'Wii' titles because they saw all those flash adverts with models in angelic white playing Wii, but then when little jimmy unwrapped his wii he got the shock of his life. This was no next gen console and he told his friends about it...

MGS4 is what we call a 'front-loaded' game, something that sells enormously well in its first month but falls off the radar within the next two.

MGS4 is the only big game coming out in the forseeable future for either PS3 or 360? Damn, i guess wii has a clear run then.

Yes, they went from utter, meaningless shit to mediocre.

They've gone from ~80k to ~280k (and increasing) in non holiday months, a 350% increase.

The MotionPlus isn't going to break a game. Nintendo wouldn't add the thing if it were going to rip their games apart.

Nintendo have lost touch with reality, anyone looking at their E3 conference could see that, wiimote 1:1 is just another sign of that.

Edit: same points to Pureauthor I guess.

 

[SRG01]

Btw some people are counting as the wii selling the same forever. You should not. Mainly because the wii is sold out, therefore those numbers arent acurate. The "real" sales might be much bigger or much lower. Let me explain.

Supose there's currently 3 million people wanting to buy a wii, while 200k new people are added to that pool each month

Month# | Sales | Pool of people waiting to get a wii

1 | 600k | 2.6m
2 | 700k | 2.1m
3 | 600k | 1.7m
4 | 700k | 1.3m
5 | 700k | 0.9m
6 | 700k | 0.4m
7 | 700k | 0.0m
8 | 200k | 0.0m
9 | 200k | 0.0m
0 | 200k | 0.0m
1 | 200k | 0.0m
2 | 200k | 0.0m
3 | 200k | 0.0m


You get my point.

Consumer pools are neither finite or static.

 

[davepoobond]

Popular consoles are bought on popularity. Wii will continue to sell well because it has become the status quo, and neither of the other two systems will have the ability to wrest it loose.

for products you usually only buy one of, I don't think you can really say that Wii sells well because it is the "status quo." If you were talking about Food or a brand of detergent -- things that must be bought over and over again, it would make sense.

A particular video game console only sells to one person once. There are reasons for it SUSTAINING sales, but becoming a "status quo" makes no sense. Nintendo, just like any other console maker, has to sell to NEW customers all the time. Multiple buys of the same console are so insignificant, that its not even worth counting.

Wii selling another 700k this month is just as likely as it selling 0.

 

[Furret]

I kinda half agree with that. It could work brillintly, the problem is, out of nowhere, nintendo pulled off a Wii. Microsoft that on its first attemp achieved an impressive second place, now risk to finish third only.

What I never understand about these arguments is how on earth Microsoft's second place with the Xbox (and it only just managed it worldwide) was "impressive".

Considering the amount of money at Microsoft's disposal it barely scraped into second (from last) place with a console that was needlessly and ruinously restricted in the scope of its content and its marketing.

Sony's first console won its generation handily. They didn't scrape second, then come dead last in the next generation and they also had zero experience in the games industry up until then.

 

[jay]

Wii selling another 700k this month is just as likely as it selling 0.

Ban bet it will sell closer to 700k than 0?

 

[phalestine]

GoW2 launched higher than MGS4 did, FWIW.

yeah but I meant worldwide.

 

[Tmac]

Consumer pools are neither finite or static.

I know. Its a simplification to explain my point.

Which is, as Wii's sold out, the real potential monthly sales can be much higher, much lower, or about the same of those 600k.

 

[Jamesfrom818]

I don't think it is a disaster but it is going to split the market and any time that happens there are some problems. Hopefully developers will develop for it in mind even if a majority of Wii owners don't have one.

Packing it with Wii Sports Resort would solve the issue of people not having it.

 

[Evlar]

I don't know if LBP has casual appeal or not. It appeals to me, certainly, but it's so unusual in presentation I wonder if it can succeed to broaden the PS3 base.

I feel it's a little like Katamari Damacy: A game that appears (to the "core") to be so simple that anyone over the age of 3 would understand and enjoy it, but in point of fact is so different from other game experiences, so alien to casual's expectations, its appeal is limited. KD overcame this with a budget price-point and tons of free marketing. LBP has the marketing but if Sony attempts to sell it at $60 I wonder how successful it can be.

 

[Kapsama]

2) GTA IV drops like a rock. Congratulations on ridding yourself of those filthy casuals who were buying your game, Mr. Houston!

Wat? My totally casual cousin and her friends have been playing it like crazy.

 

[Pureauthor]

Let me ask you something, How did Blu ray stack up against DVD last year? And now? I think you've guessed whats happening! And what this means for the future...

Um... DVD sales... massively outpaced Blu Ray sales? Last year and this year as well.

Yeah, they rushed to 'Wii' titles because they saw all those flash adverts with models in angelic white playing Wii, but then when little jimmy unwrapped his wii he got the shock of his life. This was no next gen console and he told his friends about it...

And... their friends proceeded to go out and buy Wiis of their own - again, it's selling phenomenally well two years into it's lifespan. If little Jimmy hates the Wii so much, why is it still selling out everywhere?

MGS4 is the only big game coming out in the forseeable future for either PS3 or 360? Damn, i guess wii has a clear run then.

The PS3 and 360 could get a MGS4-size game every single month for the rest of the year and the Wii would still beat it in total sales. Just look at this month. The biggest new Wii release? Indiana Jones.

They've gone from ~80k to ~280k (and increasing) in non holiday months, a 350% increase.

Meanwhile, Nintendo has gone from ~500K to ~700K months. Size at which the gap is growing looks to be the same!

Nintendo have lost touch with reality, anyone looking at their E3 conference could see that, wiimote 1:1 is just another sign of that.

Edit: same points to Pureauthor I guess.

Really? The E3 conference was geared specifically towards the people they would stand to gain the most money from - not us 'core' gamers. Seems to me that they're still firmly rooted in reality - whether or not we like it is another thing entirely.

 

[jeremy_ricci]

Look another one :|, alright let me break it down for you.

He said BIGGEST EXCLUSIVE, not the only exclusive.

Resistance 2 - yeah MGS is bigger. LBP - Yeah MGS is bigger. Motorstorm 2 - um lol. Socom = yeah MGS is bigger. GOD of War 3 - MGS is bigger. its also important to state that these games wont do so hot in Japan, though we cant be so sure about LBP. the rest arent that big at all.

you read it here folks, most gaffers cant read.

Really, I can't read?

Okay, let me break it down for you, child.

These are not Nintendo 1st party titles that cater to small groups of people (Pikmin, Animal Crossing). These are fairly big name titles.

I bet every single game that I listed will break 1 Million copies sold. As a gamer, I will be interested in the console that is pumping out exclusive content. I don't care about 'sales'. If you think those titles combined aren't a compelling reason to purchase a PS3, you're crazy.

Gamers didn't buy the 360 *just* for Halo 3 or Gears of War. The combination of Dead Rising, Gears of War, DoA4, Lost Planet, Halo 3, and GTA IV all pushed 360 hardware to the point it's at today.

The problem is, the 360 has been heavily reliant on 3rd party software and having the 'superior version'. But what happens when that bucket runs dry? When the users base get's to a 'critical mass' when the number on both consoles really don't increase / decrease sales? When the hardware / software difference between both becomes less and less apparent? Do you *really* think that a strong line up of 1st party titles, no matter how much they sell, is going to have no impact on that console?

You think that come 2009, that big library of 1st party software isn't going to seem appealing to someone? I honestly think KZ 2 has just as much system moving power as MGS4.

Gears of War sold, initially, because it was really good looking, visually. It didn't take off on the sales charts for any other reason, intially. It turned out ot be a great game, but before gamers knew that, they knew it looked amazing.

You're ape shit if you think the line up for upcoming PS3 games isn't going to help push hardware world wide. Even then, FFXIII is only on PS3 in Japan, where 360 sales are already extremely low, and I'm sure it will push at least 50K consoles the weak that FFXIII comes out in Japan (in 2015).

 

[jjasper]

Packing it with Wii Sports Resort would solve the issue of people not having it.

Some but the majority still won't. Of course this hasn't stopped Nintendo from requiring certain add ons before (expansion pack).

 

[Grecco]

Someone has to explain to me how adding the motion plus is "not being grounded in reality".

Some but the majority still won't

It will be sold seperately, packaged with consoles and probably packaged with controlers as well.

 

[jay]

Really, I can't read?

Okay, let me break it down for you, child.

These are not Nintendo 1st party titles that cater to small groups of people (Pikmin, Animal Crossing). These are fairly big name titles.

The last AC sold over 9 million copies. That's a small group of people?

 

[Vinci]

VP != LBP

It was a point to follow Jammy's (I think it was?) when he said that the game doesn't match the system's demographics. VP didn't, and last I checked wasn't a huge seller. And that's because there wasn't anything like it on the system before. You don't expand your demographics by releasing an outlier, you do it by creating an identity on your console for that sort of game.

 

[Starchasing]

They don't have to. It's in Wii Sports Resort. And possibly other titles. For all we know at this point, Nintendo might put the thing in with even 3rd party games to ensure it reaches as many people as possible.

they could put it in every single Nintendo game..

in every new controller

in every new wii


Nintendo is doing things unheard on this industry before... so why not?!?!

 

[Tim the Wiz]

"Analysis"

Only on GAF. :lol

I also think people are jumping ahead of themselves (something that doesn't happen often around here :rolleyes), just because there's a PS3 spike resulting from MGS4 doesn't mean that PS3 will eventually overtake 360. The next couple of months will tell the tale, if that momentum is lost without the push of MGS4, and PS3 and 360 are back to selling in tandem then you can kiss goodbye all hope of PS3 taking the cake world-wide. Without strong growth over the next year or so, that is completely out of tune with the system's current trend, the PS3 will end this gen a firm third.

Nintendo have lost touch with reality

Almost as delusional as a Randroid.

 

[Tmac]

What I never understand about these arguments is how on earth Microsoft's second place with the Xbox (and it only just managed it worldwide) was "impressive".

Considering the amount of money at Microsoft's disposal it barely scraped into second (from last) place with a console that was needlessly and ruinously restricted in the scope of its content and its marketing.

Sony's first console won its generation handily. They didn't scrape second, then come dead last in the next generation and they also had zero experience in the games industry up until then.

If you consider the amouth of companies who tried and failed misserably, the amouth of companies who went bankrupt, and those companies being one of the largest comporations. Yes, xbox classic had an impressive start.

Sony's playstation was a brilliant start. But history tells this is much more the exception than the rule.

 

[Haunted]

The last AC sold over 9 million copies. That's a small group of people?

Wild World sold 9 million copies? Holy fucking shit.

lol they probably found out you were from Gamefaqs.

Much worse. ps3forums.

And he was actually permanently junior'd for starting too many shitty threads.

 

[Evlar]

And... their friends proceeded to go out and buy Wiis of their own - again, it's selling phenomenally well two years into it's lifespan. If little Jimmy hates the Wii so much, why is it still selling out everywhere?

You see, Jimmy doesn't know he hates it yet. But he will! It will strike him suddenly, like a bolt out of the blue.

 

[Pureauthor]

Wild World sold 9 million copies? Holy fucking shit.

4 Mil in JPN alone. Once we get around that, 9 Mil ain't that huge a stretch.

 

[onipex]

Wii wont keep this pace up, WiiWare fatigue WILL set in at some point, at any rate you wont see an increase in wii sales compared to the last 12 months from now on out. Totally different story for PS3 which is gaining momentum, and 360 will always have big months with games like gears 2.
The idea that Wii will outsell both the PS3 and 360 combined is laughable to anyone who considers future factors for growth.

What the heck is future factors?

The PS3 could only gain momentum after last year. I don't think it could have sold any worst and still be on the market. You are right about the Wii not being able to keep up this pace. One can just look at the DS to see how the sale of the Wii will just drop.

 

[davepoobond]

Ban bet it will sell closer to 700k than 0?

ban bet your mom.

 

[gofreak]

It was a point to follow Jammy's (I think it was?) when he said that the game doesn't match the system's demographics. VP didn't, and last I checked wasn't a huge seller. And that's because there wasn't anything like it on the system before.

It also, IMO, wasn't as readily marketable and was deceptively complicated. It was too readily identified as a kid's thing (i.e. marketing it alongside a tv show for kids and such) - that stymied broader 'cool' potential, clashed with the game's sophistication, and was an uphill battle because they were trying to establish a broad kid's franchise (tv+game) from scratch. It didn't have a fresh novelty. Things like singstar did. Buzz did. Wii did.

Sony's successfully marketed to more than the hardcore before. I don't think they've ever had as good a product to do that with than LBP. Well, maybe Singstar/Buzz when they were first introduced, but for very different reasons.

 

[Haunted]

indie85 clearly loves being proven wrong. I remember his last meltdown in the M-C thread. Someone post the analystcrayonchart.jpg.

 

[Jammy]

Really, I can't read?

Okay, let me break it down for you, child.

These are not Nintendo 1st party titles that cater to small groups of people (Pikmin, Animal Crossing). These are fairly big name titles.

:lol :lol :lol

You DO know how much the Animal Crossing franchise has sold, right?
You DO know that Animal Crossing: Wild World (DS) alone is nearing 10 million worldwide, right?

 

[Vagabundo]

4 Mil in JPN alone. Once we get around that, 9 Mil ain't that huge a stretch.

I had no idea. And City folk will have a bigger audience.

Wozzers...

indie85 clearly loves being proven wrong. I remember his last meltdown in the M-C thread. Someone post the analystcrayonchart.jpg.

Damn, I havent been visiting MC's much over the past 6 months, They grew, tiresome...

 

[jay]

ban bet your mom.

I'll give you better odds then. It will sell over 450k in the next NPD. It's all just a dart on a board right, who can tell if the Wii won't unsell 700k units?

 

[Starchasing]

It also, IMO, wasn't as readily marketable and was deceptively complicated. It didn't have a fresh novelty. Things like singstar did. Buzz did. Wii did.

Sony's successfully marketed to more than the hardcore before. I don't think they've ever had as good a product to do that with than LBP. Well, maybe Singstar/Buzz when they were first introduced, but for very different reasons.

thats what really makes me wonder...

Sony had the casual market grabbed by the balls with excellent productys like buzz, singstar, eye toy... they knew how to make those games and market them

The DS was doing great in that sector too..

Everything pointed in the same direction ...

but then sony decided to launch a 600$ console?!?!?!?

I'll give you better odds then. It will sell over 450k in the next NPD. It's all just a dart on a board right, who can tell if the Wii won't unsell 700k units?

please dont try to get him banned

 

[Furret]

If you consider the amouth of companies who tried and failed misserably, the amouth of companies who went bankrupt, and those companies being one of the largest comporations. Yes, xbox classic had an impressive start.

Sony's playstation was a brilliant start. But history tells this is much more the exception than the rule.

All those companies like what?

Start-up companies Atari and 3DO or perhaps you mean leather tanning company Coleco?

There was Apple I suppose but they're hardly on the same scale as Microsoft and Sony (or at least weren't when they made the Pippin) and quickly realised their mistake.

On any reasonable financial and marketing level the Xbox has been a miserable failure.

It's fine to say you like it because it plays hosts to games you enjoy but coming second from last, then actually last is not an impressive start.

Coming first with your inital try and then creating the world's most succesful console is impressive. (Everything after that is absolute power corrupting absolutely.)

 

[Luckyman]

GTA4 totally vanishing basically shows that The Hardcore arent the people who made the franchise successful. Bet Rockstar wishes it had a Wii version of GTA4 now

There are people who believe GTA4 would have sold shit on Wii? Maybe they should put more focused Lego GTA there.

 

[phalestine]

Really, I can't read?

Okay, let me break it down for you, child.

These are not Nintendo 1st party titles that cater to small groups of people (Pikmin, Animal Crossing). These are fairly big name titles.

I bet every single game that I listed will break 1 Million copies sold. As a gamer, I will be interested in the console that is pumping out exclusive content. I don't care about 'sales'. If you think those titles combined aren't a compelling reason to purchase a PS3, you're crazy.

Gamers didn't buy the 360 *just* for Halo 3 or Gears of War. The combination of Dead Rising, Gears of War, DoA4, Lost Planet, Halo 3, and GTA IV all pushed 360 hardware to the point it's at today.

The problem is, the 360 has been heavily reliant on 3rd party software and having the 'superior version'. But what happens when that bucket runs dry? When the users base get's to a 'critical mass' when the number on both consoles really don't increase / decrease sales? When the hardware / software difference between both becomes less and less apparent? Do you *really* think that a strong line up of 1st party titles, no matter how much they sell, is going to have no impact on that console?

You think that come 2009, that big library of 1st party software isn't going to seem appealing to someone? I honestly think KZ 2 has just as much system moving power as MGS4.

Gears of War sold, initially, because it was really good looking, visually. It didn't take off on the sales charts for any other reason, intially. It turned out ot be a great game, but before gamers knew that, they knew it looked amazing.

You're ape shit if you think the line up for upcoming PS3 games isn't going to help push hardware world wide. Even then, FFXIII is only on PS3 in Japan, where 360 sales are already extremely low, and I'm sure it will push at least 50K consoles the weak that FFXIII comes out in Japan (in 2015).

Wait WHAT, WHAT? again, WHAT. and this is relevant HOW? alright I am going to make it really SIMPLE.

Iby ( thats me ) MGS IS Sonys biggest exclusive.

You ( thats you ) THAT up there ^^.

seriously though, I was stating that MGS4 is (was) ATM sonys biggest exclusive, that can change any day now though. there is no denying the games you mentioned well sell very well along with more hardware , ALL games sell hardware, shit even a dora game sells hardware, even if its JUST ONE console. ya dig me now?

 

[markatisu]

Let me ask you something, How did Blu ray stack up against DVD last year? And now? I think you've guessed whats happening! And what this means for the future..

Actually nothing, HD video (used to be split between HD-DVD and Blu-Ray) still only represents under 1% of the entire home video marketplace. It may move up to a bit higher than 1% but wont reach 2% this year

 

[gofreak]

Everything pointed in the same direction ...

but then sony decided to launch a 600$ console?!?!?!?

True. I'm sure SCEE folk were more than upset about that (even though ironically, PS3 is doing relatively well in Europe). Phil Harrison may have left the company for just that reason (that sony seemed to ignore the opportunities they were creating with the PS2).

And as I said before, the console's price will remain a minus for endeavours like LBP, but I hope it won't weigh too heavily in terms of holding back its potential as a system mover. I'd prefer if it was launching onto a $299 or $349 system, even, but we'll see how it goes I guess.

 

[freddy]

Really, I can't read?

Okay, let me break it down for you, child.

These are not Nintendo 1st party titles that cater to small groups of people (Pikmin, Animal Crossing). These are fairly big name titles.

oh dear...

 

[charlequin]

thats what really makes me wonder...

Sony had the casual market grabbed by the balls with excellent productys like buzz, singstar, eye toy... they knew how to make those games and market them

The DS was doing great in that sector too..

Everything pointed in the same direction ...

but then sony decided to launch a 600$ console?!?!?!?

What Phil Harrison was quite wisely doing over in Europe had very little to do with the completely different direction Kutaragi was taking the Playstation Brand in over in Japan, and it seems pretty likely that this disconnect had a lot to do with why Phil left Sony.

 

[jay]

oh dear...

What I find even funnier is that his metric for being big is selling over a million, which Pikmin actually did. So even the smaller of the games he thinks have small appeal meets his standard for being big games.

 

[davepoobond]

I'll give you better odds then. It will sell over 450k in the next NPD. It's all just a dart on a board right, who can tell if the Wii won't unsell 700k units?

i dont do ban bets.

this is all besides the point anyway. I know its not going to sell 0, that's why i said its gonna sell 700k, cause i actually think it will sell around 700k.

 

[NintendosBooger]

thats what really makes me wonder...

Sony had the casual market grabbed by the balls with excellent productys like buzz, singstar, eye toy... they knew how to make those games and market them

The DS was doing great in that sector too..

Everything pointed in the same direction ...

but then sony decided to launch a 600$ console?!?!?!?

You have to understand Sony's vision. Their goal with the Playstation brand was never anchored exclusively by the same passion for gaming as, say, Nintendo. It is the same reason why Microsoft was threatened by them, because they were both heading in the same direction -- that is, to develop an all-purpose computer and media hub and insert it into as many homes as possible. Hardcore gaming, casual gaming, Blu-ray, and all that junk are just means to an end.