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Love Boat 2 [Mafia] |OT| Electric Boogalove

Sophia

Member
Just wanted to make sure you know I'm not trying to insult your perspective or ideas, so I apologize if I'm coming off like that. This is actually my first time reaching end game as Town so it's kind of exciting and I feel really good about my reads. So..apologies if I'm stepping on toes lol

This is the first time I've reached endgame unconfirmed, I think? I died in Gafia 2.5 just before hitting it. XD
 

Natiko

Banned
ANYWAY tho - I feel like possibilities for scum partnerships got broader after last night instead of narrower. Maybe because racohrs had been in such a strange position relative to the game.
In some ways possibly, but I think the kill does one interesting thing. Go back to a couple days ago when they the talk of the higher activity groups and lower activity groups cropped up. Everyone from the lower activity ones is now dead except Kark/Xbro. If Kark is scum is it in his best interests to narrow the low activity pool down to just him, especially when some players such as Sorian firmly believed there was a scum boat in each group?
 

Sawneeks

Banned
or ignore me too i mean that's fine

I don't think you're following what I mean. We lynch today and hit scum it drops to 3v1. Town Sorian makes his block and we enter the next day 3v1 then one of those two people are getting lynched for sure. It's a 50/50 chance for scum to win or lose.

"But what if they just don't submit a night kill to frame whoever Sorian blocks"

Okay, in this scenario it's now a 33% chance Sorian picked the last scum anyways and considering he's a competent player you could argue his critical thinking makes it an even higher percentage but that's neither here nor there.

"Okay so why exactly should they kill Sorian again?"

Because if they kill Sorian and he doesn't successfully block them then it goes into the final day 2v1. Scum have the same 33% chance as above but now with Sorian, a respected mafia player, removed from helping the remaining town players pick the right scum.

Hence, it is in scum's best interests to kill Sorian if he is town.

I also want to add that it's entirely possible for us to 'clear' someone if we lynch Scum today. Scum would be forced down to 1 Boat and wouldn't be able to swap around anymore so even if we don't stop the Kill we'll basically be 'clearing' whoever we blocked as not being the killer.

Of course this mostly relies on us flipping the Scum Strongman but still, it's another possibility. :x

Can you share that because it's also my first time but I'm TERRIFIED OF LOSING AND BEING MOCKED IN THE SPEC THREAD

Don't worry, win or lose that's probably already happening anyway. Spec threads can be very mean. :p
 

Sawneeks

Banned
I agree that determining the teams in general is the way, so I'm looking back at what I did already and will reframe it here:



New version:
Natiko Sparks is unlikely to be on a scum team with Sophist, but could be scum with any of the others. They have not been much pushed in general.

XKark looks less likely to be on a scum team with Sophist today, though votes could tell a different story. Probably not scum with Sawrian or us. Could be scum with Natiko Sparks.

Sawrian could be scum with us or Natiko Sparks; less likely with XKark or Sophist, unless they've lied about blocking the latter.

Sophist is probably not scum with Natiko Sparks - unlikely scum with Sawrian unless Sawrian is lying, and unlikely with XKark unless they are squabbling today for show. Possibly scum with us, I guess, because we have few connections.

So Sophist is the question mark - can we go through the options for their scum partners more carefully?

Are you making these from just the past few Day Phases or from the whole game?
 

Natiko

Banned
I'm really bad at referring to everyone as their pair names okay. My bad. Saw is also with Sorian and is also well regarded. Two competent players gone..if they're Town that is.
 
This whole situation is severely fucked up. I should go through the whole thread again and take notes. But I have a thesis to hand in in two days, so I don't really see myself doing it? I mean, I have enough time to play the game but not 5+ hours to spend to reread the thread. I think.

But I like my partner's idea of looking at Scum pairs (pair pairs) instead of single people. Because the roster is small enough and the amount of free mislynches is small enough that this actually makes sense.

There are 10 pair combinations:
1. Sawrian & Crimsonphia
2. Sawrian & hey_Flush
3. Sawrian & XKark
4. Sawrian & Natiko Sparks
5. Crimsonphia & hey_Flush
6. Crimsonphia & XKark
7. Crimsonphia & Natiko Sparks
8. hey_Flush & XKark
9. hey_Flush & Natiko Sparks
10. XKark & Natiko Sparks

Let's find argument why those pairings are likely or unlikely.
 

Sorian

Banned
This whole situation is severely fucked up. I should go through the whole thread again and take notes. But I have a thesis to hand in in two days, so I don't really see myself doing it? I mean, I have enough time to play the game but not 5+ hours to spend to reread the thread. I think.

But I like my partner's idea of looking at Scum pairs (pair pairs) instead of single people. Because the roster is small enough and the amount of free mislynches is small enough that this actually makes sense.

There are 10 pair combinations:
1. Sawrian & Crimsonphia
2. Sawrian & hey_Flush
3. Sawrian & XKark
4. Sawrian & Natiko Sparks
5. Crimsonphia & hey_Flush
6. Crimsonphia & XKark
7. Crimsonphia & Natiko Sparks
8. hey_Flush & XKark
9. hey_Flush & Natiko Sparks
10. XKark & Natiko Sparks

Let's find argument why those pairings are likely or unlikely.

I'm not going to analyze myself because that's just a WIFOM mess for you all. But I think I can safely say that Crimson and Natiko aren't scum together, that's extreme if Natiko bussed that hard. I also don't see Flush and Kark as scum together. Day 2 could have been a fake ploybut then that means there was only ever one silence shot which seems to low for a scum power even if it was mixed into a JOAT bag.

Those are off the top of my head, the rest I'd have to look at based on votes from earlier phases which I can do during the second half of my work night.
 

Natiko

Banned
I've been putting together furniture at the new place. For transparency I'll be decently busy the next two days as everything has to be moved and the old place has to be checked over and cleaned by EOD Thursday. That being said I've laid out the argument for Sophia/Crim over the past two day phases and will be voting there. I'll run through Royal's pair combos later tonight or tomorrow at work as time permits to give my thoughts.
 

Sawneeks

Banned
This whole situation is severely fucked up. I should go through the whole thread again and take notes. But I have a thesis to hand in in two days, so I don't really see myself doing it? I mean, I have enough time to play the game but not 5+ hours to spend to reread the thread. I think.

But I like my partner's idea of looking at Scum pairs (pair pairs) instead of single people. Because the roster is small enough and the amount of free mislynches is small enough that this actually makes sense.

There are 10 pair combinations:
1. Sawrian & Crimsonphia
2. Sawrian & hey_Flush
3. Sawrian & XKark
4. Sawrian & Natiko Sparks
5. Crimsonphia & hey_Flush
6. Crimsonphia & XKark
7. Crimsonphia & Natiko Sparks
8. hey_Flush & XKark
9. hey_Flush & Natiko Sparks
10. XKark & Natiko Sparks

Let's find argument why those pairings are likely or unlikely.

Same thing what Sorian said, not really going to bother reading my own team unless someone really wants me to. I'm going to be doing this from the top of my read right now until I get the chance to sit down and actually put some research into this.

5. Crimsonphia & hey_Flush - Not impossible? If I remember correctly, Monkey gave Ty/Trigger and Crimson/Sophia both Scum Leans the day Ty got lynched, despite most of her other worries being on the same lynch target she was, and then stopped scum reading the latter pair as much afterwards. That's not totally scummy in itself but it's possibly a way to back down from scum reading a teammate really hard. One I want to look into personally.
6. Crimsonphia & XKark - Also not impossible. The earlier argument between the two felt a bit odd but other than that I don't remember a whole lot of interaction between these two? It's also possible a Scum!Kark pushed Ty out of the door to save these two last minute.
7. Crimsonphia & Natiko Sparks - Also mostly in agreement with Sorian here, I have a hard time seeing these two being on the same team just by how hard Natiko keeps pushing for their lynch. I do want to look back at their previous reactions early on in the game since I don't remember it but I'm feeling 'alright' here. Will report back if I find anything that stands out.
8. hey_Flush & XKark - Doubtful they are W/W. I also agree with Sorian here that UNLESS Royal/Monkey were a Scum 1-shot Silencer ( which seems really weak imo ) and then had Xbro/Kark lie in thread I just don't see them being Scum together. Probably the one pair right now that I feel is the least likely at play here besides CrimsonxNatiko.
9. hey_Flush & Natiko Sparks - Not sure? Need to reread but I believe both boats relatively Town read each other?
10. XKark & Natiko Sparks - Not sure? Also need to reread here.
 
So I found out today that I passed my PhD exams (woo! next stop: dissertation), so I'm CELEBRATING MY FACE OFF tonight and if I post later, well, it might be drunkyposting. But I will go over the list tomorrow with my prior findings and new notes.
 

Sawneeks

Banned
So I found out today that I passed my PhD exams (woo! next stop: dissertation), so I'm CELEBRATING MY FACE OFF tonight and if I post later, well, it might be drunkyposting. But I will go over the list tomorrow with my prior findings and new notes.

Congratulations Monkey!! \o/
 
So I found out today that I passed my PhD exams (woo! next stop: dissertation), so I'm CELEBRATING MY FACE OFF tonight and if I post later, well, it might be drunkyposting. But I will go over the list tomorrow with my prior findings and new notes.
Hey congrats, that's awesome!

*slinks back to Seattle*
 

Natiko

Banned
This whole situation is severely fucked up. I should go through the whole thread again and take notes. But I have a thesis to hand in in two days, so I don't really see myself doing it? I mean, I have enough time to play the game but not 5+ hours to spend to reread the thread. I think.

But I like my partner's idea of looking at Scum pairs (pair pairs) instead of single people. Because the roster is small enough and the amount of free mislynches is small enough that this actually makes sense.

There are 10 pair combinations:
1. Sawrian & Crimsonphia
2. Sawrian & hey_Flush
3. Sawrian & XKark
4. Sawrian & Natiko Sparks
5. Crimsonphia & hey_Flush
6. Crimsonphia & XKark
7. Crimsonphia & Natiko Sparks
8. hey_Flush & XKark
9. hey_Flush & Natiko Sparks
10. XKark & Natiko Sparks

Let's find argument why those pairings are likely or unlikely.
I'm going to follow the lead of everyone else and trim myself out then list my thoughts on the pair. All of this information has been put out there by me before over the past couple of day phases. Figured this is at least a handy way for everyone to be able to see my stances on everyone in one convenient post.

1. Sawrian & Crimsonphia
So it should be entirely clear at this point that I think this is by far the most likely scum pairing. Despite Sorian talking about how Crim/Sophia are the most likely scum among the active players he has chosen to go after other pairs such as racohrs and Tygger. Crimson, Sophia, and Sorian all voted in a row on kit, in the middle of the wagon. I personally feel this is the most likely place for decent scum players to bus - avoids the tail end and doesn't start the train on their teammate. Given that I think with the racohrs NK it's almost certain both scum boats are among the more active players, suspecting one of the claimed PRs is scum, the voting analysis overall, and some of their behaviors (Sophia throwing shade at every group, Sorian hamming up the "but how can I be alive!" stuff, etc.) this just feels like the solution to me.

Odds: 75%

2. Sawrian & hey_Flush
An interesting combo in that I could see both being scum, but I highly doubt they would be scum together. It would mean they both targeted Ouro N2 which would be odd for scum. I also explained in a previous day that based on that occurring it's also unlikely they could be scum together as a kill went through that night as well. The role flip from kit doesn't make it sound like scum can submit a kill and perform an action in one go. Due to this I would say the odds of this pairing are non-existent.

Odds: 0%

3. Sawrian & XKark
I touched on this before, but I strongly feel that both scum boats are among the more active players. If Kark was scum I don't see him signing off on a racohrs NK as it sets him up to be the only candidate from the lower activity pool. I also don't suspect the voting at the end of D1 was indicative of scum being saved from a lynch. Combine those factors and you end up with another pair I find the odds of non-existant.

Odds: 0%

5. Crimsonphia & hey_Flush
Now this is a pair that I could see. Two groups generally viewed as more active? Check. A claimed town PR that could be scum? Check. Representatives on the kit lynch for a bus? Check. Something that I find interesting here is how both groups have been pretty open to a lynch on anyone. They've both (specifically Sophia and monkey) thrown shade at essentially every living boat and made it at least appear like they might be convinced to vote anywhere. Compare that to myself for instance who is not just looking for reasons a pair could be scum but is looking at reasons a pair could be town. Gaining confidence in other players as town is just as important as picking out the ones that could be scum. You know who likes to paint everyone as potential scum? Scum. They want to cast doubt on every group so they can get a couple townies to put bad votes down and then hop on them. If it weren't for Sawrian's continued existence being inexplicable I would actually bump this group up higher. The more Sawrian lives though (and thus the worse odds scum have of winning in the instance of Sawrian actually being town) the harder it is to buy into a scum pair that doesn't feature Sawrian. Another thing that makes me feel less likely in this pairing is that if you believe scum bussed kits to some extent (I do) then Royal popping in late and deciding to vote Sorian doesn't make as much sense. Would seem a bit counter-intuitive ultimately.

Odds: 25%

6. Crimsonphia & XKark
I believe I've explained why I don't think Kark is scum in enough detail already.

Odds: 0%

8. hey_Flush & XKark
Ditto what I said above this. Also I don't think Royal would silence Kark if they were teammates and I doubt scum would be given a one shot silencer as a power. The only way this makes sense is if Flush is actually a JOAT type role and only had one silence. They would then have opted to use nothing N1, have Kark fake being silenced, and then gone on using their powers. This would be very dicey though as they then openly claim to be out of shots and could have been seen moving in future nights if a tracker existed (which we know now did). Just too many places where this could backfire on scum.

Odds: 0%


So I found out today that I passed my PhD exams (woo! next stop: dissertation), so I'm CELEBRATING MY FACE OFF tonight and if I post later, well, it might be drunkyposting. But I will go over the list tomorrow with my prior findings and new notes.

Congrats! That's a true accomplishment, you should be proud!
 

Sorian

Banned
I'm just refreshing in between patients at work for right now so not going to really sit in and get a real post out for a few hours but is the only reasoning there for Kark not being scum that be wouldn't have agreed to a rac kill? Why would leaving himself as the only low activity poster mean much? Anyone can tell you are going to tunnel the high activity posters anyway so why not leave more for you to lynch into if he is scum?
 

Natiko

Banned
I'm just refreshing in between patients at work for right now so not going to really sit in and get a real post out for a few hours but is the only reasoning there for Kark not being scum that be wouldn't have agreed to a rac kill? Why would leaving himself as the only low activity poster mean much? Anyone can tell you are going to tunnel the high activity posters anyway so why not leave more for you to lynch into if he is scum?

I'm honored that you think scum would only take my perspective into account. It's really kind of you, but I think it's not particularly likely. I would say the general sentiment of the thread in prior day phases was that there is a scum in the high activity group and the low activity group. You have argued as much multiple times. I think I'm actually one of the few people that has been positing two scum in the higher activity group for a few day phases now. So no, I don't think scum Kark would choose his actions based solely on me as opposed to the overall sentiment of the remaining players. Furthermore, I also mentioned that I doubt Kark is scum because of the day end D1 not looking like a concentrated effort to save scum from a lynch (I said as much D2 as well).

If you really want me to dive further into it then I can. I outlined the additional reason I can't see Kark as scum with Royal in my original post (the silencing). I can't see Kark as being scum with Sophia as I strongly suspect one of the PR claims has been from scum just due to the volume of them all. That leaves the only possible scum mate for him as you, but considering you've been pushing the angle that scum is among the lower activity players (and I have a feeling you're not about to change that assessment) that combination also makes no sense seeing as he's the only one left for you to point at and it wouldn't make too much sense to set your scum mate up for a lynch.
 

Sorian

Banned
Going to try to do this on mobile without formatting this terribly, just going to take it day by day.

Day 1 we end up between Orb and Kark. The only way this vote is worth anything is if Kark is scum, if he's town then this is all garbage data. Of note is that myself and Crimson got votes on late enough that they could fall into the realm of trying to save Kark. Alternatively, Flush held out on a vote on Kark despite the close race until closer to eod. The second point still reads like Flush and Kark are never teammates. Alternatively, Crimson and Kark are possible.

Day 2 is our only scum lynch with the day ending between Kitsune and me. It wasn't really a close race so I can't say the votes left on my really matter much, the only one alive that voted near the end was Flush but it was never a vote that was going to save Kitsune and I feel scum wouldn't just throw away vote there when all it will do is look bad. I still think Xbro falls into the bussing section of the kitsune vote and with everyone else there dead, I raise my eyebrow at Kark and him. I know someone said they feel that Crimson and Sophia fall into a good bus area too but I think they are on too early in the vote. They could have gone elsewhere and bolstered a different vote to the top of the pack.

Day 3 is junk.

Day 4 is junk.

Day 5 is useful if Crimson and Sophia are scum. One thing to note is that the entirety of the vote on them is confirmed town except Natiko. Myself and Kark (plus partners) all pushed Ty over instead of Crimson and Sophia. As said in my post above, Natiko isn't scum with Crimson and Sophia here. Alternatively, again, there is another link here between Kark and Crimson.


Day 6 is again, obviously junk for votes.

Writing it all out like that, the only time Crimson and Sophia come out looking good on a vote is on Kitsune herself but if they are scum with Kark then that means thy weren't in communication that day which could explain an early and likely unneeded vote there (and some afk stuff). I still don't see Flush as scum based on any vote so I'd take out all of his permutations and Natiko isn't scum with Crimson. Natiko could be scum with Kark? I don't really see anything that links them at all, on a broad level, they've almost completely ignored each other all game which would be an issue on its own but I also don't see Natiko as scum.

It all leads back to the same team to me. I think it's Crimson and Kark.
 

Sorian

Banned
If you could pick the lynch for today who would it be?

I'm leaning towards Sawrian

When the game ends, we're gonna find out you two didn't have a chat or some weird shit aren't we?

Anyway, I'd choose Crimson, from how everyone is pointing there, it feels like an accepted bus at this point so I'd rather take it, let the last scum narrow it down to three and hope the survivors figure it out tomorrow.
 

Natiko

Banned
When the game ends, we're gonna find out you two didn't have a chat or some weird shit aren't we?

Anyway, I'd choose Crimson, from how everyone is pointing there, it feels like an accepted bus at this point so I'd rather take it, let the last scum narrow it down to three and hope the survivors figure it out tomorrow.
We have a little but it's more nomad asking questions about what's going on now and then. I'll just say he's no different in our private chat than he is in the thread. Take from that what you will.. lol

Seems reasonable. I feel the same way, given I think there's at least some possibility you aren't the other scum I'd much rather lynch where I'm most confident.
 
There are 10 pair combinations:
1. Sawrian & Crimsonphia
2. Sawrian & hey_Flush
3. Sawrian & XKark
4. Sawrian & Natiko Sparks
5. Crimsonphia & hey_Flush
6. Crimsonphia & XKark
7. Crimsonphia & Natiko Sparks
8. hey_Flush & XKark
9. hey_Flush & Natiko Sparks
10. XKark & Natiko Sparks

Let's find argument why those pairings are likely or unlikely.

Thank you, my sweet prince, for laying it out like this - much more clear. So I'll post more explanations later, because celebrating on a weeknight was a bad idea (but thank you for your support, y'all! The exams were rigorous and I was tired but now it's all done!), but here are some early thoughts:

Not likely:
2. Sawrian & hey_Flush
5. Crimsonphia & hey_Flush
7. Crimsonphia & Natiko Sparks
8. hey_Flush & XKark
9. hey_Flush & Natiko Sparks
10. XKark & Natiko Sparks

More likely:
1. Sawrian & Crimsonphia
3. Sawrian & XKark
4. Sawrian & Natiko Sparks
6. Crimsonphia & XKark

I would say that numbers 7 and 10 are outlier possibilities but would entail some twisty thinking. But this is why I asked about just lynching Sawrian today instead - it really seems like they're the common denominator, but it looks like it's going to come down to a choice between xKark and Sophist but that brings me back to the question of: did we hit scum with our first silence?
 

Natiko

Banned
If we lynch correctly today I expect tomorrow to be an interesting phase for whoever is left alive. If scum is going to bluff on a kill/block then that's the time it'll happen. I expect maximum fuckery to be honest.
 
If we lynch correctly today I expect tomorrow to be an interesting phase for whoever is left alive. If scum is going to bluff on a kill/block then that's the time it'll happen. I expect maximum fuckery to be honest.

Right now I just really hope we get there. I'm gonna look at a couple of things this afternoon while I'm in class because I think there are a couple of if-then scenarios that may help. Fingers crossed.
 

Natiko

Banned
Right now I just really hope we get there. I'm gonna look at a couple of things this afternoon while I'm in class because I think there are a couple of if-then scenarios that may help. Fingers crossed.
I'm open to discussion, but I'm pretty married to a Sophia/Crimson lynch today. The bigger outstanding question to me is who are they paired with. I don't think anyone has really presented a decent argument for how Sophia/Crim are not scum.
 

Sophia

Member
I'm open to discussion, but I'm pretty married to a Sophia/Crimson lynch today. The bigger outstanding question to me is who are they paired with. I don't think anyone has really presented a decent argument for how Sophia/Crim are not scum.

You seemed oddly confident (or "75%") confident that it was Sorian and Sawneeks who were our mythical scum partner. What changed to suddenly make you say this?

Because I town read him around day 2. Then as the game progressed my reads developed. I do scum read him, but I scum read Sophia/Crim above all and my votes have been placed as such. Plus once we flip Sophia as scum there will be yet another night phase and when Sorian comes out alive yet again it's going to be even more ridiculous. That's when there will be no doubt that he's scum as well.
I think I've made that incredibly clear. I even outlined the order of which I think people could be scum yesterday and also explained that I put the odds of Sophia as scum at 100%, Sorian at 75%, and then you at 25%.
1. Sawrian & Crimsonphia
So it should be entirely clear at this point that I think this is by far the most likely scum pairing. Despite Sorian talking about how Crim/Sophia are the most likely scum among the active players he has chosen to go after other pairs such as racohrs and Tygger. Crimson, Sophia, and Sorian all voted in a row on kit, in the middle of the wagon. I personally feel this is the most likely place for decent scum players to bus - avoids the tail end and doesn't start the train on their teammate. Given that I think with the racohrs NK it's almost certain both scum boats are among the more active players, suspecting one of the claimed PRs is scum, the voting analysis overall, and some of their behaviors (Sophia throwing shade at every group, Sorian hamming up the "but how can I be alive!" stuff, etc.) this just feels like the solution to me.

Odds: 75%
 

Natiko

Banned
You seemed oddly confident (or "75%") confident that it was Sorian and Sawneeks who were our mythical scum partner. What changed to suddenly make you say this?
So eager to find a way to discredit my stance and build traction on your scum read of me. If I'm 100% confident you're scum, but only 75% confident Sorian is scum, doesn't that clearly demonstrate that your partner pair is the bigger question point for me as it has some potential to be someone else as opposed to 0%?
 

Sophia

Member
So eager to find a way to discredit my stance and build traction on your scum read of me. If I'm 100% confident you're scum, but only 75% confident Sorian is scum, doesn't that clearly demonstrate that your partner pair is the bigger question point for me as it has some potential to be someone else as opposed to 0%?

Well duh I'm eager to build traction against you. You've been pushing for a lynch on us and we're in LYLO. More than that, you're pushing for a lynch on us over our supposed "town" roleblocker who has somehow survived to endgame despite claiming a few days ago. I can only assume the worst, and that you're pushing this lynch with dishonest intentions.

And "75%" confident means you're reasonably sure that Sorian and Sawneeks are our scum partners. But in the post I quoted it, I get the impression you don't actually believe your own 75% figure there.
 

Natiko

Banned
Well duh I'm eager to build traction against you. You've been pushing for a lynch on us and we're in LYLO. More than that, you're pushing for a lynch on us over our supposed "town" roleblocker who has somehow survived to endgame despite claiming a few days ago. I can only assume the worst, and that you're pushing this lynch with dishonest intentions.

And "75%" confident means you're reasonably sure that Sorian and Sawneeks are our scum partners. But in the post I quoted it, I get the impression you don't actually believe your own 75% figure there.
So let me get this straight. You believe I'm scum because I've been consistent in pushing for a lynch of my top scum read. This despite the fact that I have multiple times outlined my reasoning for said read. Meanwhile your pair started scum reading me because of "process of elimination" that had nothing to do with Sawrian, but now Sawrian must be scum and thus I am too because reasons. Got it...

I am reasonably confident Sawrian is the other scum boat, but 75% is less than 100%. Thus it is the point that I feel there is more discussion to be had that can be meaningful.

I don't know what else I could possibly say to convince everyone else at this point. You both were on the kit lynch, in the best bussing location (front endangers a teammate unnecessarily and back looks the most suspicious). You have been casting shade on every living pair for days now, all while simultaneously claiming your reads are shot. You've been pretty open to lynching anyone up to this point. You are a high activity poster of which (now mathematically) MUST contain scum. You are now pushing for a lynch on me despite the reasoning for it shifting multiple times and no clear argument having been presented. I will be voting for you. If you feel you can make a stronger case on me than I have on you by all means go for it.
 
Day 2 votes on kits:
ty4on 1893
franconp 2119
sorian 2196 (2285)
wherearemahdragonz 2278
crimsonfist 2351
sophia 2411
sorian 2544
nin1000 2551
trigger 2559
xbro 2561

I think day 2 remains interesting for a variety of reasons - first, we lynched scum, and second, we silenced xKark and if they were scum, the entire scum team was silenced during the day. Through that lens, the moves on day 2 become very interesting:

NatikoSparks never voted for kits; our team didn’t either. The remaining teams did have at least one person on that vote, so let’s look at those in case there was a bus in play. IF xKark is scum and Sophist is ALSO scum (and thus bussed), while that might be a good early bus vote, the voting early without much reason and staying means that it had to be either a pre-planned strategy, maybe related to them being loved, or a snap decision to try to get townie red. BUT: Crimson voted early in the final day without any real reason offered and later Sophia voted there as well. But she was there for the whole thing. They weren’t communicating anyway (so far as we know, because Crimson was ostensibly gone) so if they were silenced, it wouldn’t matter much. But with NO scum communication that day, would they vote that early? Since Sophia was here, would she stay there and not shift at all? That continues to bother me. I just can’t understand that behavior. Much of what else they’ve done looks scummy… but day two screams town to me, ESPECIALLY if xKark and Sophist are scum together. I could see it more if the scum team was a different makeup.

Syrian and Xbro, however, look like more clear possibilities for bus votes.

This is also a fascinating day 2 post: http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=245823708&postcount=2354

So I’d say that IF XKark is scum, the more likely partner there is Sawrian.

More to come.
 

Natiko

Banned
A bus isn't a bus if you get gun shy and back off near day end. In fact doing so as scum could put you in a really bad position later on if the scum mates you saved by swapping your vote off of them are flipped. People will go back and look at the votes and you'll be toast. Not to mention Sophia sheeping her partner's vote because she trusts his reads and then counter voting it however many pages later also would look bad. I think as scum sitting would have been the correct choice, not swapping.
 
A bus isn't a bus if you get gun shy and back off near day end. In fact doing so as scum could put you in a really bad position later on if the scum mates you saved by swapping your vote off of them are flipped. People will go back and look at the votes and you'll be toast. Not to mention Sophia sheeping her partner's vote because she trusts his reads and then counter voting it however many pages later also would look bad. I think as scum sitting would have been the correct choice, not swapping.

But that early? They didn't shy away from NOT voting later; why would Crimsonfist bus that early rather than not voting?

I'm not saying it's not possible. Hell, bussing seems like a delicate strategy to me anyway so I'm sure it IS possible. But today I'm willing to push things all the way to the edge to make sure we're right.
 

Natiko

Banned
Nomad it's generally accepted that we don't vote at all in lylo until enough people are in agreement on a lynch or it's late in the phase.

But that early? They didn't shy away from NOT voting later; why would Crimsonfist bus that early rather than not voting?

I'm not saying it's not possible. Hell, bussing seems like a delicate strategy to me anyway so I'm sure it IS possible. But today I'm willing to push things all the way to the edge to make sure we're right.
You literally just voted out Ty who voted THE EARLIEST and his read stretched across multiple day phases. What is even happening here lol
 
You literally just voted out Ty who voted THE EARLIEST and his read stretched across multiple day phases. What is even happening here lol
I mean, let's not act like I didn't address that as the one thing that gave me doubt on Ty, because I did. And it turned out I was right to doubt, so I'm not sure what's that confusing here. This also isn't the only argument I'm planning to make today. It's just my first on considering these teams.
 

Sophia

Member
NatikoSparks never voted for kits; our team didn’t either. The remaining teams did have at least one person on that vote, so let’s look at those in case there was a bus in play. IF xKark is scum and Sophist is ALSO scum (and thus bussed), while that might be a good early bus vote, the voting early without much reason and staying means that it had to be either a pre-planned strategy, maybe related to them being loved, or a snap decision to try to get townie red. BUT: Crimson voted early in the final day without any real reason offered and later Sophia voted there as well. But she was there for the whole thing. They weren’t communicating anyway (so far as we know, because Crimson was ostensibly gone) so if they were silenced, it wouldn’t matter much. But with NO scum communication that day, would they vote that early? Since Sophia was here, would she stay there and not shift at all? That continues to bother me. I just can’t understand that behavior. Much of what else they’ve done looks scummy… but day two screams town to me, ESPECIALLY if xKark and Sophist are scum together. I could see it more if the scum team was a different makeup.

We weren't silenced, for the record. First post was on day start too.

Yup. That's pretty much what I said. Right now we have one claim (that one pair of pairs has had their love boat chat disabled) which we cannot verify at this moment.

A town aligned chat silencer could easily just as hit town as much as it could scum, so I don't think the power is town-aligned. Which makes this post...



.. stand out as mildly curious because it almost sounds like Kark thinks it's a town-aligned power?



Was waiting to talk to Crimson about it, but he seems to have missed my comment in the love boat. So...

Vote: Verelios
He was scum-reading those two in his posts in lovers chat. He actually had a "most town to least town" ranking he was going through, but admitted he wasn't super confident in at the time. They were pretty low.

I actually wanted more of his opinion on FEP, but unfortunately he appears to have already been long gone by the time I woke up. Alas...
 

Natiko

Banned
I mean, let's not act like I didn't address that as the one thing that gave me doubt on Ty, because I did. And it turned out I was right to doubt, so I'm not sure what's that confusing here. This also isn't the only argument I'm planning to make today. It's just my first on considering these teams.
So you were willing to vote out someone who was more consistent in their logic, provided reasoning, and voted first but now you won't vote out someone who provided no reasoning and voted in the middle of the pack🤔

I never said it was your only argument for the day but I'm going to respond to posts as you make them.
 
So you were willing to vote out someone who was more consistent in their logic, provided reasoning, and voted first but now you won't vote out someone who provided no reasoning and voted in the middle of the pack🤔

I never said it was your only argument for the day but I'm going to respond to posts as you make them.

Of course you are, but let's not leave out context. I also found Ty's vote consistent, but not his logic; your mileage may vary.
 
What about his logic on kit was inconsistent? Would you say Sophia/Crimson's "reasoning" was better?

I'm sorry, I didn't mean just there - as a general rule, rather, I found Ty's logic inconsistent throughout the game so I did not trust him. He shifted gears on things several times without much explanation or reason, or reason that didn't always match up with his votes. He didn't really say that much about kits. Neither did Sophist. Frankly, this is one of my issues with gut reads and that early, that's all most people were saying. "I have a scum read." "My gut says." This is really the big problem too with just looking at day 2 here - there wasn't a lot of evidence yet even for the posters who tend to look at evidence and provide it.

Re: bussing possibilities - Crimsonfist and Sorian also voted for kits at various times on day 1. Then they both switched to Orb. So there may well have been some strange bussing strategy regardless related to the Loved role. Or they might not be scum at all.

Looking at Sawrian pairings next.
 
I mentioned earlier that Sawrian had never voted for Natiko Sparks, but they’ve never voted for Sophist, either, despite now blocking them and therefore clearly scum reading them. They’ve never scum read the former (Natiko Sparks), but they HAVE scum read Sophist. I’m looking back now to see how often prior to the past few day phases they’ve thrown shade on each other. It seems to me then that despite the claim that Sawrian has blocked Sophist for days, they could easily be scum together.

There have been votes back and forth on Sawrian and xKark, so I think the odds of their being scum together is lower - I also do like Natiko’s point that xKark would probably not want to vote out or remove other low activity posters at this point. So I find them a less likely scum team.

Natiko Sparks and Sawrian are possible but that would entail such acting, much drama, many ploys that I’m like, damn, good job if so.
 

I haven't decided yet, but I dunno about Flush. He's working.

Re: that post - it's interesting because it's about bussing (and voting for other reasons) but also a point at which Sorian seems to be lightly shading Crimson, if I'm reading it correctly, but again he's never voted there.
 
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