This whole situation is severely fucked up. I should go through the whole thread again and take notes. But I have a thesis to hand in in two days, so I don't really see myself doing it? I mean, I have enough time to play the game but not 5+ hours to spend to reread the thread. I think.
But I like my partner's idea of looking at Scum pairs (pair pairs) instead of single people. Because the roster is small enough and the amount of free mislynches is small enough that this actually makes sense.
There are 10 pair combinations:
1. Sawrian & Crimsonphia
2. Sawrian & hey_Flush
3. Sawrian & XKark
4. Sawrian & Natiko Sparks
5. Crimsonphia & hey_Flush
6. Crimsonphia & XKark
7. Crimsonphia & Natiko Sparks
8. hey_Flush & XKark
9. hey_Flush & Natiko Sparks
10. XKark & Natiko Sparks
Let's find argument why those pairings are likely or unlikely.
I'm going to follow the lead of everyone else and trim myself out then list my thoughts on the pair. All of this information has been put out there by me before over the past couple of day phases. Figured this is at least a handy way for everyone to be able to see my stances on everyone in one convenient post.
1. Sawrian & Crimsonphia
So it should be entirely clear at this point that I think this is by far the most likely scum pairing. Despite Sorian talking about how Crim/Sophia are the most likely scum among the active players he has chosen to go after other pairs such as racohrs and Tygger. Crimson, Sophia, and Sorian all voted in a row on kit, in the middle of the wagon. I personally feel this is the most likely place for decent scum players to bus - avoids the tail end and doesn't start the train on their teammate. Given that I think with the racohrs NK it's almost certain both scum boats are among the more active players, suspecting one of the claimed PRs is scum, the voting analysis overall, and some of their behaviors (Sophia throwing shade at every group, Sorian hamming up the "but how can I be alive!" stuff, etc.) this just feels like the solution to me.
Odds: 75%
2. Sawrian & hey_Flush
An interesting combo in that I could see both being scum, but I highly doubt they would be scum together. It would mean they both targeted Ouro N2 which would be odd for scum. I also explained in a previous day that based on that occurring it's also unlikely they could be scum together as a kill went through that night as well. The role flip from kit doesn't make it sound like scum can submit a kill and perform an action in one go. Due to this I would say the odds of this pairing are non-existent.
Odds: 0%
3. Sawrian & XKark
I touched on this before, but I strongly feel that both scum boats are among the more active players. If Kark was scum I don't see him signing off on a racohrs NK as it sets him up to be the only candidate from the lower activity pool. I also don't suspect the voting at the end of D1 was indicative of scum being saved from a lynch. Combine those factors and you end up with another pair I find the odds of non-existant.
Odds: 0%
5. Crimsonphia & hey_Flush
Now this is a pair that I could see. Two groups generally viewed as more active? Check. A claimed town PR that could be scum? Check. Representatives on the kit lynch for a bus? Check. Something that I find interesting here is how both groups have been pretty open to a lynch on anyone. They've both (specifically Sophia and monkey) thrown shade at essentially every living boat and made it at least appear like they might be convinced to vote anywhere. Compare that to myself for instance who is not just looking for reasons a pair could be scum but is looking at reasons a pair could be town. Gaining confidence in other players as town is just as important as picking out the ones that could be scum. You know who likes to paint everyone as potential scum? Scum. They want to cast doubt on every group so they can get a couple townies to put bad votes down and then hop on them. If it weren't for Sawrian's continued existence being inexplicable I would actually bump this group up higher. The more Sawrian lives though (and thus the worse odds scum have of winning in the instance of Sawrian actually being town) the harder it is to buy into a scum pair that doesn't feature Sawrian. Another thing that makes me feel less likely in this pairing is that if you believe scum bussed kits to some extent (I do) then Royal popping in late and deciding to vote Sorian doesn't make as much sense. Would seem a bit counter-intuitive ultimately.
Odds: 25%
6. Crimsonphia & XKark
I believe I've explained why I don't think Kark is scum in enough detail already.
Odds: 0%
8. hey_Flush & XKark
Ditto what I said above this. Also I don't think Royal would silence Kark if they were teammates and I doubt scum would be given a one shot silencer as a power. The only way this makes sense is if Flush is actually a JOAT type role and only had one silence. They would then have opted to use nothing N1, have Kark fake being silenced, and then gone on using their powers. This would be very dicey though as they then openly claim to be out of shots and could have been seen moving in future nights if a tracker existed (which we know now did). Just too many places where this could backfire on scum.
Odds: 0%
So I found out today that I passed my PhD exams (woo! next stop: dissertation), so I'm CELEBRATING MY FACE OFF tonight and if I post later, well, it might be drunkyposting. But I will go over the list tomorrow with my prior findings and new notes.
Congrats! That's a true accomplishment, you should be proud!