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[starship]

My prediction for cumulative sales of DS in Japan:

By the end of March ~ 7.2m -7.5m
By the end of May ~ 8m - 8.5m
By the end of October ~ 9m - 9.5m
By the end of November (Pokemon ) ~ 10m - 10.5m
By the end of December ~ 12m - 12.5m

 

[Magicpaint]

Of course, with the help of Pokemon D/P

Well, with so many Pokemon related games released thus far for the DS, I can't help but think a good fraction of Pokemon fans already own a DS and as such, won't bring in the insane amount of new buyers as a result, but I could be wrong and Pokemon D/P could be a great overhaul for the series (isn't it supposed to take advantage of every DS feature in some way?) that could spark interest with new as well as old players alike. We'll see.

 

[metropolis]

"3. No, people say Japan is less important becuz its true. "

BULLSHIT. the japanese developers are damn important! and they are going to side with the system that is killing it in japan (i would assume). this is the main reason that super nintendo was 5 billion times better than genesis. genesis had EA and super nintendo had konami and capcom and square. right now the PSP has capcom but if they released monster hunter on DS, it would double the PSP sales even with worse graphics.

although sony would be very wise to bribe japanese developers by offering lower PS3 rates to those developers that work on PSP. if they do that then nintendo could be in trouble.

 

[Frankfurter]

...also saying its over in EU is alot like back in June when PSP was behind 1 million~ in US and people said PSP never had a chance to comeback...fast forward to today and look at that, lead is only 150k and PSP is cutting into the lead every month now.

1) Who in June said that it was over for PSP in the USA?

2) At the end of June 05 DS had a lead of ~375k, not 1 million.

 

[soundwave05]

Nintendo is probably prepping Pokemon D/P, Brain Training 3, and maybe even Zelda DS for holiday 2006 in Japan.

 

[Monorojo]

a majority of the big Japanese developer (more like all of them) realize games sell well outside of Japan also, and the success PSP is seeing in US and EU will carry over very well with the Japanese developers who see those areas for what they are, much bigger and potentially more profitable than the tiny country of Japan.

And its not like PSP is stinking it up hardware wise in Japan either, constantly adding another 100k fanbase every month and sales of games like Brain Training (ugh) andMonster Hunter shows there is potential for good software sales in Japan.

Guess i overestimated DS in US, thought they sold around 2~million by June 05...Anyway i was wrong on that and forgive me. But you have to realize it is far FAR too early to declare EU in favor of DS, especially considering the huge head start and the little amount of time PSP has had to develop a fanbase of its own.

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

I wonder if DS could outdo 2005 as a whole though, certainly possible, but will the christmas be nearly as big?

Duplicating holiday sales like that is possible, but certainly not something we can totally expect. HOWEVER, remember that last year DS didn't really take off until Easter, so even with shortages DS 2006 is getting an advantage on 2005. Consider the upcoming DS Lite, and by the end of April DS 2006 should be around a million ahead of last year. From that point on, DS only needs to do about 71% as well as the previous year on a weekly basis to reach the same yearly total.

Or to think of it another way, if they could match most weeks perfectly with the year before, DS 2006 could replace DS 2005's weeks of 408,770 and 597,628 with 0 and 0, and still break even.

 

[Kroole]

Well, with so many Pokemon related games released thus far for the DS, I can't help but think a good fraction of Pokemon fans already own a DS and as such, won't bring in the insane amount of new buyers as a result, but I could be wrong and Pokemon D/P could be a great overhaul for the series (isn't it supposed to take advantage of every DS feature in some way?) that could spark interest with new as well as old players alike. We'll see.

Well if you look at the demographic statistics that Nintendo presented a couple of months ago you would see that the DS had sold a higher quota towards women and older people than GBA had. That means that many of the younger gamers that is normally the main target of Nintendo games hasn't yet jumped to the DS and true Pokemon games might be the games that will make them jump.

 

[Kroole]

But you have to realize it is far FAR too early to declare EU in favor of DS, especially considering the huge head start and the little amount of time PSP has had to develop a fanbase of its own.

Yes it's premature to already claim the DS victory over the PSP (both will IMO do well) but you see the DS didn't have a huge head start. Yes it as released in March but practically no games was being released for it and the sales completely died down until autumn/winter (just before/during PSP hit town).

 

[Frankfurter]

Guess i overestimated DS in US, thought they sold around 2~million by June 05...Anyway i was wrong on that and forgive me. But you have to realize it is far FAR too early to declare EU in favor of DS, especially considering the huge head start and the little amount of time PSP has had to develop a fanbase of its own.

DS was at nearly 2 million by June 05 (~1.89m)

Although your point (that is too early to declare EU in favor of DS) is absolutely valid, there is still a tendency.
PSP had a fantastic launch, but with the price drop and the launch of Nintendogs at the beginning of October DS really began to sell like hotcakes.

 

[Wink]

DS was at nearly 2 million by June 05 (~1.89m)

Although your point (that is too early to declare EU in favor of DS) is absolutely valid, there is still a tendency.
PSP had a fantastic launch, but with the price drop and the launch of Nintendogs at the beginning of October DS really began to sell like hotcakes.

And Animal Crossing will be released end of march (did the GC-version do well in EU?). I think DS has the potential to keep it's lead over here, especially seeing PSP's release list.

 

[tanasten]

At the end, doesn't matters in wich country one system sells more than others. The totals are what makes the rounded numbers: say GCN sold more than Xbox on the totals but everyone there thinks Xbox outsold GCN.

And moreover, what it's truly important it's revenue. Nintendo is earning more money by every DS sold than Sony every PSP sold, and don't forget: how many millions of software did sold Nintendo on the DS in just a little more than a year? 15 or 20 millions!? That's AMAZING.

Super Mario DS: over 3 millions.
Wario Ware Touched over 2'5 millions.
Nintendogs Over 5 millions.
Mario Kart over 3'5 millions.
Brain Series over 4 millions and it hasn't been released on Europe and USA.
Animal Crossing Wild World over 3 millions and hasn't been released on Europe.

And those are only the million sellers.

PSP doesn't matters for Nintendo.

 

[AdmiralViscen]

Who the hell cares how much money Nintendo's execs pull in? I care about hardware sales because I want DS to continue to be a viable platform for various developers to support. I couldn't care less about who's making more money on the hardware, I just want game support. 50% market share and relatively strong third party sales matter to me, nothing more than that.

 

[I <3 Katamari]

At the end, doesn't matters in wich country one system sells more than others. The totals are what makes the rounded numbers: say GCN sold more than Xbox on the totals but everyone there thinks Xbox outsold GCN.

No, Xbox has sold more than GC worldwide.

 

[gokou20]

No, Xbox has sold more than GC worldwide.

remember its ms shipped versus nintendos sold

 

[I <3 Katamari]

remember its ms shipped versus nintendos sold

Oh? Link to proof of this please.

 

[Wink]

remember its ms shipped versus nintendos sold

Really? Now I want to know numbers for both sold, not shipped.

 

[tanasten]

Oh? Link to proof of this please.

There isn't a link. That's the problem, it's the numbers of Nintendo versus the numbers of Microsoft. The problem is that Nintendo says their numbers are sold meanwhile Microsoft ever talks about shipped units.

So, I take the word of Iwata's on TGS (was on TGS?) when it explain that GCN established in the end has the second platform.

 

[polg]

 

[tanasten]

Who the hell cares how much money Nintendo's execs pull in? I care about hardware sales because I want DS to continue to be a viable platform for various developers to support. I couldn't care less about who's making more money on the hardware, I just want game support. 50% market share and relatively strong third party sales matter to me, nothing more than that.

That doesn't matter eitter. You know, third parties are gona ignore Nintendo Platforms like they did when GameCube was a half and million in sales over Xbox, but they gave their support to Microsoft meanwile Nintendo got lossing their support.

In the end, it's comprensible, no one can compete with Nintendo. And that's the problem, doesn't matter how many millions of DS will be sold late this year, you Know Capcom and the others are gona pledge their support to PSP because their games can sell on the system, but not on the DS.

 

[Notorious_Roy]

Does anybody know how many copies Radilgy (the Dreamcast shooter) sold?

 

[AdmiralViscen]

There isn't a link. That's the problem, it's the numbers of Nintendo versus the numbers of Microsoft. The problem is that Nintendo says their numbers are sold meanwhile Microsoft ever talks about shipped units.

So, I take the word of Iwata's on TGS (was on TGS?) when it explain that GCN established in the end has the second platform.

Do you really think there are 2-3 million XBox's unsold? That's what it'd take for Cube to have topped it.

That doesn't matter eitter. You know, third parties are gona ignore Nintendo Platforms like they did when GameCube was a half and million in sales over Xbox, but they gave their support to Microsoft meanwile Nintendo got lossing their support.

In the end, it's comprensible, no one can compete with Nintendo. And that's the problem, doesn't matter how many millions of DS will be sold late this year, you Know Capcom and the others are gona pledge their support to PSP because their games can sell on the system, but not on the DS.

Which is why I said "strong hardware sales and relatively strong third party sales," rather than simply "strong hardware sales."

They competed on SNES, they can compete on DS and Revo.

 

[Frankfurter]

There isn't a link. That's the problem, it's the numbers of Nintendo versus the numbers of Microsoft. The problem is that Nintendo says their numbers are sold meanwhile Microsoft ever talks about shipped units.

Nintendo - as every other company - give us shipping numbers in their financial report (because that is what directly affects their financial situation) and therefore GC is no. 3 at the moment (the difference in shippings is about 2-3m afair and this fits the situation).

 

[PhoenixDark]

There's no doubt in my mind that the DS will surpass the Japanese 2005 numbers easily this year. Software sells hardware, and this year the DS' lineup is second to none.

-Touch Generations games (4m total for series?)

I expect they will continue to sell well throughout the year in Japan. Brain Trainings legs have been amazing, and I see no reason why English Training won't surpass 1m by the end of the year.

-Super Mario Bros. (2.1m)

Normally Mario games don't sell that great on handhelds, but NSMB will be different. It's really the next Mario, and it'll be far more Mario than Sunshine imo. Although I think the game is getting overhyped, there's no doubt it could surpass 1.8m and possibly outsell Animal Crossing.

-FFIII (1.1m)

FFIII is one of Japan's most wanted games according to Famitsu. Although Children of Mana is going to sell well too, I think FFIII will wind up as the best selling third party game for the DS.

-Tetris DS (1m)

It's Tetris. Nuff said.

-Pokemon Diamond/Pearl (6m)

Pokemon is going to be the final exploding factor for the DS. Once the game is released I fully expect the GBA Generation (GBA players who have yet to move to the DS or PSP) to migrate to the DS in droves. The game could recreate the PokeFever mania we saw when Red/Blue were first released.


Of course many more great DS games are coming out this year (Zelda DS, ASH, FF:CC, Contact, etc), but they won't be the enormous hits that Pokemon/Mario/etc will be. And Nintendo no doubt has many games up their sleeve we won't know about until E3 (SSBM DS?). It's going to be crazy.

The DS could sell more than 7 million units this year in Japan alone. I truly believe it can do it.

 

[Moor-Angol]

Does anybody know how many copies Radilgy (the Dreamcast shooter) sold?

I think we have to wait Famitsu chart for Radilgy result, even if i fear we will have to wait for monthly chart...

 

[tanasten]

Do you really think there are 2-3 million XBox's unsold? That's what it'd take for Cube to have topped it.



Which is why I said "strong hardware sales and relatively strong third party sales," rather than simply "strong hardware sales."

They competed on SNES, they can compete on DS and Revo.

Seems too hard for them, like Namco who is crying on low DS sales, and they had released TAMAGOTCHI there and that those weird PAC-MAN games.

I can't see why the developers spreed the hate over Nintendo systems, if they do only shit.

 

[Magicpaint]

Yeah, I think people are forgetting how the SNES had incredible Third Party support, so far third partydevelopers that actually put in *some* effort into the making of their titles have been rewarded, third party titles can sell on the DS, they just have to cater to the right audience, that's all.

Duplicating holiday sales like that is possible, but certainly not something we can totally expect. HOWEVER, remember that last year DS didn't really take off until Easter, so even with shortages DS 2006 is getting an advantage on 2005. Consider the upcoming DS Lite, and by the end of April DS 2006 should be around a million ahead of last year. From that point on, DS only needs to do about 71% as well as the previous year on a weekly basis to reach the same yearly total.

Or to think of it another way, if they could match most weeks perfectly with the year before, DS 2006 could replace DS 2005's weeks of 408,770 and 597,628 with 0 and 0, and still break even.

Woah, didn't see it that way, now I'm convinced the DS will surpass its 05 performance. That would be quite something.

 

[jj984jj]

DS: 52,099 (403,901)
PSP: 27,430 (337,682)
PS2: 23,433 (241,273)
GBASP: 5553 (57,890)
GBM: 2941 (35,529)
GC: 1814 (32,392)
Xbox 360: 1314 (23,971)
GBA: 105 (1584)
Xbox: 92 (762)

:lol :lol :lol :lol :lol :lol :lol

PSP owned.

 

[Frankfurter]

The DS could sell more than 7 million units this year in Japan alone. I truly believe it can do it.

I think you are a bit too optimistic

7 million would probably be the absolute record for a videogame machine in Japan in a year. 5 million seem to be realistic (perhaps 5.5 or even 6), especially as cause of the DS Lite launch we'll see sales of near to a million in March.

 

[Furoba]

So when to expect a GameBoy successor, E3 2007 or TGS in September 2007? Or could we finally see Nintendo DS as a GameBoy successor? It's in Nintendo's best interest to avoid customers becoming confused by a plenthora of platforms.

 

[NWO]

a majority of the big Japanese developer (more like all of them) realize games sell well outside of Japan also, and the success PSP is seeing in US and EU will carry over very well with the Japanese developers who see those areas for what they are, much bigger and potentially more profitable than the tiny country of Japan.

Except that the DS still has a larger userbase in Europe, America, and Japan. :lol

And its basically selling the same amount as the PSP in America every month and Europe its outselling it every month. So why wouldn't you put something on the DS where it has a MASSIVE Japan lead, a big Europe lead, and barely any US lead? Its still leading.

You people make it sound like the DS is only selling in Japan and nowhere else when its not even close to the case. And your whining the same shit that your accusing the DS fanboys of doing.

But you have to realize it is far FAR too early to declare EU in favor of DS, especially considering the huge head start and the little amount of time PSP has had to develop a fanbase of its own.

That's not Nintendo's problem.

And jeez God forbid the 360 outsells the PS3 ANYWHERE because you'll have all the Sony fanboys crying because it had a headstart.

Think of a headstart as a feature. The DS had it and the PSP didn't.

 

[PhoenixDark]

Except that the DS still has a larger userbase in Europe, America, and Japan. :lol

And its basically selling the same amount as the PSP in America every month and Europe its outselling it every month. So why wouldn't you put something on the DS where it has a MASSIVE Japan lead, a big Europe lead, and barely any US lead? Its still leading.

You people make it sound like the DS is only selling in Japan and nowhere else when its not even close to the case. And your whining the same shit that your accusing the DS fanboys of doing.



That's not Nintendo's problem.

And jeez God forbid the 360 outsells the PS3 ANYWHERE because you'll have all the Sony fanboys crying because it had a headstart.

Think of a headstart as a feature. The DS had it and the PSP didn't.

WTF Reggie posts on GAF? :lol

 

[starship]

I think you are a bit too optimistic

7 million would probably be the absolute record for a videogame machine in Japan in a year. 5 million seem to be realistic (perhaps 5.5 or even 6), especially as cause of the DS Lite launch we'll see sales of near to a million in March.

I think DS sales will be higher than 6.5 million during 2006.

 

[Galactic Fork]

That doesn't matter eitter. You know, third parties are gona ignore Nintendo Platforms like they did when GameCube was a half and million in sales over Xbox, but they gave their support to Microsoft meanwile Nintendo got lossing their support.

In the end, it's comprensible, no one can compete with Nintendo. And that's the problem, doesn't matter how many millions of DS will be sold late this year, you Know Capcom and the others are gona pledge their support to PSP because their games can sell on the system, but not on the DS.

Uh, just because games by Nintendo are amazing, doesn't mean the 3rd parties are giving up on it. If you look here:

http://www.ga-forum.com/showthread.php?t=64940&highlight=ds+party+software+psp

You'll see the DS has 9 3rd party games above 100k, and the PSP has 10, plus the DS has 11 3rd party games between 50k and 100k, to the PSP's 8, and one of the DS's is close to becoming a million seller, well closer than the PSP's possible million seller But to say third party games cannot sell on the DS is wrong. And to say the devs are going to focus on the PSP is also wrong. The DS is only going to get more support as more and more people get DSs.

Oh, and before anybody says that Bandai is part of Nintendo so isn't a third party, well they made 9 games for the PSP, so I don't think that's a good argument.

 

[marc^o^]

to say the devs are going to focus on the PSP is also wrong. The DS is only going to get more support as more and more people get DSs.

QFT, Nintendo will more than likely sell 6 millions more DS in Japan in 2006. Meanwhile, the PSP should sell 2 millions if we extrapolate the last months sales.

The userbase difference will make 3rd party games sell better and better on the DS, it's inevitable.

 

[jamesinclair]

I understood what you were saying as son as I read your post. Misinterpretations are annoying, aren't they?


Can someone give more detail on the WSJ article?

Abstract (Document Summary)

Nintendo's key weapon is a device called the Nintendo DS -- short for "dual screen" -- hand-held game machine, which was introduced in late 2004 in Japan and the U.S. The machine opens like a book and has two screens. One is touch-sensitive, so players can write on it with a stylus. The other is just a regular screen. The DS also has a microphone for voice activation, and networking capability so that users can send messages and play against each other from afar. Last week, Nintendo announced that it would soon enable Web browsing on the device using an add-on card.

Analysts say it's unclear whether this trend will catch on elsewhere -- especially since a large part of Nintendo's success is due to the local celebrity of Prof. [Ryuta Kawashima]. Japan "is a smaller market where Nintendo has much more weight in marketing, and more of an opportunity to create a boom from nothing," says Credit Suisse games analyst Jay Defibaugh. Elsewhere, "it's more of a challenge."

The company has just announced a sleeker, lighter version of the DS. This will come out in Japan in early March, though a U.S. launch date has yet to be announced. Nintendo has also launched other game titles for the DS that stray from shoot'em-up and racing. One is Electroplankton, a game in which players compose ethereal music by manipulating cute sea creatures on the screen. In another title, Nintendogs, which has been a hit globally, players raise and train a virtual pooch. The DS's wireless networking allows different owners' puppies to virtually play with each other.

---

I dont think Im allwoed to post the entire article.

 

[starship]

Abstract (Document Summary)

Nintendo's key weapon is a device called the Nintendo DS -- short for "dual screen" -- hand-held game machine, which was introduced in late 2004 in Japan and the U.S. The machine opens like a book and has two screens. One is touch-sensitive, so players can write on it with a stylus. The other is just a regular screen. The DS also has a microphone for voice activation, and networking capability so that users can send messages and play against each other from afar. Last week, Nintendo announced that it would soon enable Web browsing on the device using an add-on card.

Analysts say it's unclear whether this trend will catch on elsewhere -- especially since a large part of Nintendo's success is due to the local celebrity of Prof. [Ryuta Kawashima]. Japan "is a smaller market where Nintendo has much more weight in marketing, and more of an opportunity to create a boom from nothing," says Credit Suisse games analyst Jay Defibaugh. Elsewhere, "it's more of a challenge."

The company has just announced a sleeker, lighter version of the DS. This will come out in Japan in early March, though a U.S. launch date has yet to be announced. Nintendo has also launched other game titles for the DS that stray from shoot'em-up and racing. One is Electroplankton, a game in which players compose ethereal music by manipulating cute sea creatures on the screen. In another title, Nintendogs, which has been a hit globally, players raise and train a virtual pooch. The DS's wireless networking allows different owners' puppies to virtually play with each other.

---

I dont think Im allwoed to post the entire article.

Thanks alot dude. I think Brain Training games will become the next Nintendogs and see huge success in western territories.

 

[Oblivion]

Children of Mana seems cool and all, but how well did Sword of Mana sell in Japan?

 

[PhoenixDark]

Thanks alot dude. I think Brain Training games will become the next Nintendogs and see huge success in western territories.

It's not going to happen, period.

Brain Training is going to flop in the US. Some people (GAFfers and Nfans) will buy it just because, but it will not be a hit by any definition of the word.

 

[Magicpaint]

It's not going to happen, period.

Brain Training is going to flop in the US. Some people (GAFfers and Nfans) will buy it just because, but it will not be a hit by any definition of the word.

Both sides are better off not making any predictions. Same (what you say about BT) was said about Nintendogs and that is even a bigger hit than it was in Japan.

Nintendo is definitely marketing this title very well, especially here in Europe, so it is NOT a sure banker that it will flop around here, we'll just have to wait and see.

 

[RaijinFY]

Children of Mana seems cool and all, but how well did Sword of Mana sell in Japan?

280-300k.

EDIT: 1.1m for FFIII is a stretch (lol, that's the least we can say).

 

[starship]

It's not going to happen, period.

Brain Training is going to flop in the US. Some people (GAFfers and Nfans) will buy it just because, but it will not be a hit by any definition of the word.

I think you understimate the power of non-games and non-gamers

 

[jamesinclair]

It's not going to happen, period.

Brain Training is going to flop in the US. Some people (GAFfers and Nfans) will buy it just because, but it will not be a hit by any definition of the word.

"Nintendo plans to run ads for the games during daytime television and in magazines that attract older readers, like Time and Readers Digest. The company will test the product in retirement communities in North America."

 

[Vaandaviii]

:lol :lol :lol :lol :lol :lol :lol

PSP owned.

How a console can be owned being the second biggest seller, outselling PS2 and selling 250% the sales of Xbox 360, Gamecube, Xbox, Gameboy advance SP, Game boy micro and game boy advance all together?

 

[metropolis]

It's not going to happen, period.

Brain Training is going to flop in the US. Some people (GAFfers and Nfans) will buy it just because, but it will not be a hit by any definition of the word.

the USA is obviously the market where brain age is *most likely* to flop. it's the kind of concept that just appeals more generally to europeans or japanese people. BUT i highly highly doubt it will flop.
what is a flop to you anyways? because i'm not saying it will be the top selling game ever or anything crazy like that but i'm sure it's gonna do enough business to be very profitable for nintendo.

 

[First Children]

I predicted Brain Age would be bigger than Nintendogs.

I smell success from miles away

 

[PhoenixDark]

I am trying my hardest to come up with some kind of bet I can make on this game that does not involve a ban. GOD darnit. I would say give me a tag that makes me look like a loser, but...yeah.

If Brain Training becomes as big as Nintendogs...kill me. My zip code is 48197.

If Brain Training surpasses 500,000 sales in the US by the end of the year...just do something to me. Something that doesn't involve banning/furry porn/etc. God darnit

 

[starship]

How a console can be owned being the second biggest seller, outselling PS2 and selling 250% the sales of Xbox 360, Gamecube, Xbox, Gameboy advance SP, Game boy micro and game boy advance all together?

Wooow, PSP outsold PS2 which is in 6th year, what a great performance !!
Also in another note, Xbox 360 outsold Playstation in its 12th year, who said Xbox 360 flopped in Japan??

 

[starship]

I am trying my hardest to come up with some kind of bet I can make on this game that does not involve a ban. GOD darnit. I would say give me a tag that makes me look like a loser, but...yeah.

If Brain Training becomes as big as Nintendogs...kill me. My zip code is 48197.

If Brain Training surpasses 500,000 sales in the US by the end of the year...just do something to me. Something that doesn't involve banning/furry porn/etc. God darnit

I don't think it become as big as Nintendogs (which its sales can easily reach 9m lifetime) , but I'm sure it experience huge success in western territories.
p.s. your second bet accepted

 

[marc^o^]

If Brain Training surpasses 500,000 sales in the US by the end of the year...just do something to me. Something that doesn't involve banning/furry porn/etc. God darnit

The Brain Training concept has universal appeal. It is already hyped by its japanese phenomenal success in the medias. NOA will advertise this game more than any other in their lineup. And the game will only cost 20$. I wouldn't bet anything if I were you .