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[Orgen]

--------------------------------------------------
|Week|        2013         |        2014         |
--------------------------------------------------
| 40 | 122.987 |   122.987 |  22.490 |    22.490 |
| 41 | 213.570 |   336.557 | 261.873 |   284.263 |
| 42 | 154.578 |   491.135 | 113.238 |   397.501 |
| 43 | 109.508 |   600.643 |  96.590 |   494.091 |
| 44 |  88.376 |   689.019 |  69.673 |   563.764 |
| 45 |  81.817 |   770.836 |  79.217 |   642.981 |
| 46 |  70.102 |   840.938 |  65.201 |   708.182 |
| 47 |  84.506 |   925.444 |  88.653 |   796.835 |
| 48 | 108.373 | 1.033.817 | 106.517 |   903.352 |
| 49 | 125.269 | 1.159.086 | 145.420 | 1.048.772 |
| 50 | 181.556 | 1.340.642 | 157.103 | 1.205.875 |
| 51 | 232.600 | 1.573.242 | 196.351 | 1.402.226 |
| 52 | 201.703 | 1.774.945 |         |           |
--------------------------------------------------

I don't remember the number but the week before the launch of the smash bros 3DS bundle I said that the 3DS numbers were dissapointing and now we can confirm it. Maybe 20 million is the saturated number for the core market in Japan?

What are they doing?

I'm not saying you're wrong, I just can't think of anything at all. Is there a single first party title in production at the moment?

Paying for a RE:Revelations 2 port and I'm sure that incentivising developers to include Vita in some PS3/PS4 games

 

[Pennywise83]

I don't remember the number but the week before the launch of the smash bros 3DS bundle I said that the 3DS numbers were dissapointing and now we can confirm it. Maybe 20 million is the saturated number for the core market in Japan?

3DS numbers are slightly disappointing, but New 3DS could prevent the 50%+ YOY decline. 20m units would be in line with PS1 and PS2, that is market leader of their respective generation. Given the traditional market conditions, so putting some context, 3DS is nothing but a success. Than, in terms of initial expectation, Nintendo's strategy wrt mobile gaming, etc. we can debate.

 

[Mory Dunz]

What was Toad's FW again?

 

[BlackJace]

I'll be honest, I thought FF EX would do waaaay worse.

 

[Refreshment.01]

Wii U Gamepad Redesign.

Think that another strong reason for a redesign with a reduced profile that rarely gets mentioned is, that there's need to be a more simple way for the user to substitute the device in case of need. With a potential user base of 10 million in the future we can't expect for ewveryone to be able to contact Nintendo for special repairs or substitution of the Gamepad.

Edit: Know that it has been asked already but didn't see the answer. How does this week 51 compares to the next ones traditionally? Bigger, same or less?

 

[Busaiku]

What was Toad's FW again?

28,025

 

[Principate]

28,025

Toad did very well for itself. I expected it to have long legs.

Too bad the same can't be said for the Wii U.

 

[Kagari]

Yeah the demo wasnt that great. Plus not sure if folks like the character design. Didnt seem to connect well with folks.

Personally I thought the character design and visuals were really poor.

 

[Oregano]

Personally I thought the character design and visuals were really poor.

The character design isn't too bad(nowhere near Itahana's best) but the visual are really bad especially when you take into account it doesn't have 3D. Just compare it to what Ganbarion achieved with One Piece.

 

[DarkLordMalik]

I expected more sales for FF Explorers based on the marketing push.

Yeh, same.

I wonder what Square thinks of these sales.

 

[sörine]

Yeh, same.

I wonder what Square thinks of these sales.

Not 500k for sure. You don't contract Racjin for that.

 

[Pennywise83]

I expected more sales for FF Explorers based on the marketing push.

Which marketing push are you referring to? Just asking.

 

[Orgen]

3DS numbers are slightly disappointing, but New 3DS could prevent the 50%+ YOY decline. 20m units would be in line with PS1 and PS2, that is market leader of their respective generation. Given the traditional market conditions, so putting some context, 3DS is nothing but a success. Than, in terms of initial expectation, Nintendo's strategy wrt mobile gaming, etc. we can debate.

I think they're disappointing without the slightly. There're 4 models on sale this time (and two are relatively "new"... Rimshot) with new entries in the best SW sellers (pokemon and Monster Hunter), new big SW titles not found last year (smash bros and youkai) and it's selling less than last year. How is that not disappointing?

Not saying anything about 3DS sales in general. They're very good (they'll reach 20 million easily) and the only sustention in the declining (non-mobile) market that Japan has become. But knowing that DS sales will be unmatched I hoped (and I'm sure that Nintendo hoped too) that 3DS could reach something like 25 million but now we see that it'll be impossible.

 

[MasterSheen]

YW needs another 50% hold to cross 2m before year end, lets see if it can get there

 

[Sammy Samusu]

Which marketing push are you referring to? Just asking.

Live streams lol.

 

[Psycho_Mantis]

I expected more from FFEX but like PSN after seeing the talk before its release I lowered those expectations.

I think its evident SE clearly did not invest much with this title which is weird since you would think a FF MH like game has quite big potential to warrant a bit more investment.

 

[Anth0ny]

Holy fucking shit. That's how high it's going to get for Wii U? Look at last year!!!!


wow. smash bros did fuck all.

 

[theprodigy]

Super Mario 3D World>>>>Mario Kart 8/Smash confirmed

Spoiler

what was Wii U's 2012 YTD

 

[Parakeetman]

Personally I thought the character design and visuals were really poor.

Yeah that too...

I really dont like how it looked like the SQEX "soulless" avatars lol Am sure a lot others who were familiar with it thought the same thing too...

Game itself just did not feel well good. As if they slapped the title together then kicked it out of the air without a chute.

 

[MasterSheen]

Super Mario 3D World>>>>Mario Kart 8/Smash confirmed

Spoiler

what was Wii U's 2012 YTD

From Famitsu, 561.579 up to this week then, 638,339 total. As you can see, Wii U is down from both years.

 

[Kagari]

Which marketing push are you referring to? Just asking.

SE promoted the game heavily in live broadcasts, had a demo, typical magazine coverage etc.

 

[Parakeetman]

SE promoted the game heavily in live broadcasts, had a demo, typical magazine coverage etc.

Its going to be another "excuse" for them to go more mobile F2P titles now I bet...

 

[Oregano]

SE promoted the game heavily in live broadcasts, had a demo, typical magazine coverage etc.

The thing about live broadcasts is that it costs very little(Almost free) and demos are kind of expected with the type of game it is. Magazine coverage might be the only place they gave it an atypical push but I don't think the amount of coverage it got was unusual for the sales it got in the first week.

Its going to be another "excuse" for them to go more mobile F2P titles now I bet...

There's no indication it did bad(it's debut is strong compared to similar products) and definitely no indication that SE isn't happy with its sales so you are jumping the gun a bit.

 

[Chris1964]

What are they doing?

I'm not saying you're wrong, I just can't think of anything at all. Is there a single first party title in production at the moment?

I don't know what more to expect from Sony for a console that is dead everywhere else and barely breathes in Japan. They gave it redesigns, price drops and first party efforts for as long as they thought it was worth it.

It keeps getting multiplatform releases and even some exclusives from third parties. I 'm sure Sony has something to do with that situation. If we go with the same logic of first party support wow much Sony invested in software to PSP comparing to PS3?

 

[Kagari]

Yeah that too...

I really dont like how it looked like the SQEX "soulless" avatars lol Am sure a lot others who were familiar with it thought the same thing too...

Game itself just did not feel well good. As if they slapped the title together then kicked it out of the air without a chute.

Haha, I thought the same when they first revealed the game...
Honestly my first idea was that they shoehorned FF into something that may have originally not have been.

 

[Nirolak]

In my opinion, focusing on 3DS decline is just a cheap talk; the system is heading towards 18m units, of course it's going to decline; it's a product in its maturity phase, it peaked with YTDs that were only behind the DS', and it's the only healthy platform in Japan software-wise.

If we take a step back and look at the whole market I see the following:

1.) Everything is in notable decline, except the PS4 by virtue of just launching (though its numbers are still quite bad).

2.) Every system seems to have peaked in about the second year, which is quite early. They also seem to decline quite severely either the immediately following year or the year after that.

3.) Every system has seen major declines generation over generation.

4.) Except the 3DS, every system has bad to horrific absolute sales.

5.) If the PS4 follows the same trend as the other systems (and it matched the horrible opening year trend), next year could be its best performance as people who want things like FFXV pick up the system for other games ahead of time.

Given last generation saw a lot of decent to great performing systems, and went on for 7+ years, this generation looks quite grim in comparison and overall quite grim even when taken in isolation.

If publishers and vendors want something more than a really marginal dedicated gaming market in the long run, they're going to have to do something in the not too distant future.

 

[Kagari]

The thing about live broadcasts is that it costs very little(Almost free) and demos are kind of expected with the type of game it is. Magazine coverage might be the only place they gave it an atypical push but I don't think the amount of coverage it got was unusual for the sales it got in the first week.



There's no indication it did bad(it's debut is strong compared to similar products) and definitely no indication that SE isn't happy with its sales so you are jumping the gun a bit.

My point was more about them actually promoting it quite a bit, not the money they spent on doing so.

 

[Scum]

<snip>

If publishers and vendors want something more than a really marginal dedicated gaming market in the long run, they're going to have to do something in the not too distant future.

As mad & funny as it may seem, I'd love to see publishers in Japan follow Crazy Hino's antics and show some balls and ambition. Sure, they've had more misses than hits and the poor bugger will probably run YW into the ground but it's always great to see a company pick themselves up and venture forward. loool

 

[cw_sasuke]

Chances of a redesign are extremely low. Nintendo doesn't want to lose any more money, and they know there's really nothing they could do on the Japanese market for the Wii U.

Introducing a new redesign wouldn't really have any real impact. What the Wii U needs is games, and unfortunately, there's only so much they can do in that regard.

The current performance shows thats not the case at all - Nintendo released their biggest games and the performance didnt change much at all. They need a cheaper console, to be considered as a secondary or spontaneous purchase. Mario Kart 8 looks great, so does Smash but you cant access these games without spending at least 30K Yen.

The redesign would allow them to sell the console for 20K Yen/200€ without loosing money which should be their goal entering the 3rd year of the system.

Im no Pachter but Nintendo will introduce a cheaper WiiU SKU with a smaller Gamepad, Packaging etc. next year.

 

[Nirolak]

As mad & funny as it may seem, I'd love to see publishers in Japan follow Crazy Hino's antics and show some balls and ambition. Sure, they've had more misses than hits and the poor bugger will probably run YW into the ground but it's always great to see a company pick themselves up and venture forward. loool

This is basically how the biggest Western publishers maintained success and relevance.

They spend huge amounts on things like CoD, Skylanders, Destiny, Blur, Battlefield, SWTOR, FIFA, Dragon Age, Watch Dogs, Assassin's Creed, Watch Dogs, The Crew, Red Dead Redemption, GTA, XCOM, and more, and it doesn't always pan out, but the biggest hits more than make up for it.

Publishers who played it way safer often ended up imploding due to their series not being big enough to compete as costs rose and the market polarized to the biggest games that were just so much more appealing than anything else to most consumers.

The ones that remain are also the companies who really drive the sale of consoles as opposed to the much more reserved first party line-ups.

 

[Oregano]

My point was more about them actually promoting it quite a bit, not the money they spent on doing so.

They are kind of directly related though because with very low cost marketing like livestreams you can afford to advertise even low selling titles.

If publishers and vendors want something more than a really marginal dedicated gaming market in the long run, they're going to have to do something in the not too distant future.

I feel like a lot of publishers are aware of this and this is why we've seen such strong support for the PS4. It's arguable whether or not they chose the right system to rally behind though.

 

[Chris1964]

5.) If the PS4 follows the same trend as the other systems (and it matched the horrible opening year trend), next year could be its best performance as people who want things like FFXV pick up the system for other games ahead of time.

If 2015 is PS4 peak year it will fail to outsell even Vita's LTD.

Speaking for Vita I don't see this sudden death for Vita next year many see here, especially for sw. Some months ago it was supposed to outsell 3DS in 2015, now we have the opposite, that it will completely crater.

People at YSO seem to have a problem finding the pattern for OR/AS since it launched.

Big range at YSO predictions for Shin Uchi (again) next week

Week 51, 2014 (Dec 15 - Dec 21)

1. Yo-kai Watch 2: Shin Uchi (wk2) > 300k (the very low limit, many predictions reach half million)
2. Pokemon Omega Ruby / Alpha Sapphire (wk5) >= 200k
3. Final Fantasy Explorers (wk1) >= 150k

YSO predictions

Week 52, 2014 (Dec 22 - Dec 28)

1. Yo-kai Watch 2: Shin Uchi >= 200k
2. Pokemon Omega Ruby / Alpha Sapphire >= 150k
3. Super Smash Bros. for Nintendo 3DS <= 100k
3. Super Smash Bros. for Wii U <= 100k

 

[Parakeetman]

Haha, I thought the same when they first revealed the game...
Honestly my first idea was that they shoehorned FF into something that may have originally not have been.

Yeah I could most def see that happening. Kinda like I swear to god FF13 LR was supposed to be a Valkyrie Profile game.

 

[Pennywise83]

SE promoted the game heavily in live broadcasts, had a demo, typical magazine coverage etc.

This is not the marketing that costs money, to be honest. Live broadcasts and demo are really the minimum effort; magazine coverage is basically the norm. SQEX didn't push FFEX much; the game was announced in Summer and released 6 months later; it seems that it though it would have sold by themselves, which is in fact true. The only marketing effort I could see is the 3D Classics of the first FF.

 

[Refreshment.01]

If publishers and vendors want something more than a really marginal dedicated gaming market in the long run, they're going to have to do something in the not too distant future.

VR could be one of those things.

It's something that you can't actually experience on the go (mobile) correctly.

The current performance shows thats not the case at all - Nintendo released their biggest games and the performance didnt change much at all. They need a cheaper console, to be considered as a secondary or spontaneous purchase. Mario Kart 8 looks great, so does Smash but you cant access these games without spending at least 30K Yen.

Price is not the problem, Wii U is not a desirable product.

The price is a factor for that Nintendo dedicated gamer that wants to jump on board. A price reduction will atract that person, that btw, is been served by the 3DS. When a price reduction comes and the 3DS lineup wines, those are the guys that' ll get the system. Beyond that consumer, the Wii U is just invisible.

 

[Anth0ny]

From Famitsu, 561.579 up to this week then, 638,339 total. As you can see, Wii U is down from both years.

This tells me that most of the people who wanted a Wii U for games like Mario Kart or Smash bought the console in 2012 or 2013.

Titles like Zelda, Star Fox and Xenoblade are going to do fuuuuuuuuuuuuuuck all. Everyone who wants those games already owns the system!

 

[Madao]

the Wii U is the Titanic. not even God can save it.

 

[cw_sasuke]

Price is not the problem, Wii U is not a desirable product.

The price is a factor for that Nintendo dedicated gamer that wants to jump on board. A price reduction will atract that person, that btw, is been served by the 3DS. When a price reduction comes and the 3DS lineup wines, those are the guys that' ll get the system. Beyond that consumer, the Wii U is just invisible.

You think that they couldnt sell more systems if the console was cheaper and that it isnt desirable for a company to lower productions cost in the 3rd year ?

No one is saying it will sell like the Wii because of a cheaper price, but its a basic step they will take next year. No matter how bad the situation is the system will be Nintendo home console for the next 2 years and they wont keep the price at 300€ just because some Gaffers think that price isnt an issue. Price is always an issue, its just that the system has a bunch of other issues as well.

 

[MasterSheen]

This tells me that most of the people who wanted a Wii U for games like Mario Kart or Smash bought the console in 2012 or 2013.

Titles like Zelda, Star Fox and Xenoblade are going to do fuuuuuuuuuuuuuuck all. Everyone who wants those games already owns the system!

I'd say that Nintendo should try and make more new IP games like Splatoon to reach an audience outside the Ninty-faithful, but given the Wii-Wii U transition and the Wii U being what it is, it probably wouldn't be worth it

 

[Gartooth]

Console market is deader than dead in Japan. With all the talk about making game development easier between both platforms, I wonder if it would be best if Nintendo's next console was developed with the west almost exclusively as their main concern and vice versa for their handheld and Japan.

 

[Scum]

This is basically how the biggest Western publishers maintained success and relevance.

They spend huge amounts on things like CoD, Skylanders, Destiny, Blur, Battlefield, SWTOR, FIFA, Dragon Age, Watch Dogs, Assassin's Creed, Watch Dogs, The Crew, Red Dead Redemption, GTA, XCOM, and more, and it doesn't always pan out, but the biggest hits more than make up for it.

Publishers who played it way safer often ended up imploding due to their series not being big enough to compete as costs rose and the market polarized to the biggest games that were just so much more appealing than anything else to most consumers.

The ones that remain are also the companies who really drive the sale of consoles as opposed to the much more reserved first party line-ups.

Here's hoping that NCL and many others take note and do something worthwhile or it's going to be very grim for a lot of people...

I feel like a lot of publishers are aware of this and this is why we've seen such strong support for the PS4. It's arguable whether or not they chose the right system to rally behind though.

Hmm...I don't know. Myabe it's just me but it seems more like a "Damn! Check out those Western PS4 sales! Quick, get something out that we can at least publish in the West for some of that money!" I may be very wrong though...

 

[Shikamaru Ninja]

This tells me that most of the people who wanted a Wii U for games like Mario Kart or Smash bought the console in 2012 or 2013.

Titles like Zelda, Star Fox and Xenoblade are going to do fuuuuuuuuuuuuuuck all. Everyone who wants those games already owns the system!

Actually, I think this means Nintendo still hasn't convinced many of their core fans to buy a Wii U. Even if they like Mario Kart nor Smash, the system as a whole is still very unconvincing to even some of their loyalists.

 

[Takao]

The producer on Godzilla said pre-orders were good. Bandai Namco must produce these games for $5.

 

[Vena]

You think that they couldnt sell more systems if the console was cheaper and that it isnt desirable for a company to lower productions cost in the 3rd year ?

No one is saying it will sell like the Wii because of a cheaper price, but its a basic step they will take next year. No matter how bad the situation is the system will be Nintendo home console for the next 2 years and they wont keep the price at 300&#8364; just because some Gaffers think that price isnt an issue. Price is always an issue, its just that the system has a bunch of other issues as well.

Redesigned WiiU with Splatoon/Xenoblade special edition WiiU. Boom, WiiU saved!

Actually, I think this means Nintendo still hasn't convinced many of their core fans to buy a Wii U. Even if they like Mario Kart nor Smash, the system as a whole is still very unconvincing to even some of their loyalists.

Too pricey. We can already see in the states with many Smash core players still not having either due to price barriers.

 

[Thorgal]

Actually, I think this means Nintendo still hasn't convinced many of their core fans to buy a Wii U. Even if they like Mario Kart nor Smash, the system as a whole is still very unconvincing to even some of their loyalists.

I imagine the prevailing thought is : why do i need to buy a wiiu for Nintendo games if 3DS provides all i need ?

 

[shinra-bansho]

A price cut or redesign could result in increased sales, but I doubt it would be enough to be worthwhile in terms of reduced margin or hardware design human capital opportunity cost. They're just gonna ride it out another year and a half.

I feel like a lot of publishers are aware of this and this is why we've seen such strong support for the PS4. It's arguable whether or not they chose the right system to rally behind though.

With the domestic market spiralling down I would only surmise that the choice is aimed at trying to crack the western markets.

 

[sörine]

I imagine the prevailing thought is : why do i need to buy a wiiu for Nintendo games if 3DS provides all i need ?

This is pretty much it. This wasn't as much of a problem with DS and Wii due to performance and interface leading to more distinct libraries, but on 3DS and Wii U you can get basically a comparable Nintendo experience on each (2D Mario, 3D Mario, Smash, Kart, Zelda remakes, Xenoblade, Mario Party, Virtual Console, etc) so why bother with both. It's actually the sort of issue PSP and PS3 faced in the west, only with a reversed negative impact on the handheld rather than the console.

 

[Oregano]

A price cut or redesign could result in increased sales, but I doubt it would be enough to be worthwhile in terms of reduced margin or hardware design human capital opportunity cost. They're just gonna ride it out another year and a half.With the domestic market spiralling down I would only surmise that the choice is aimed at trying to crack the western markets.

I think that is one reason but I was thinking back to Yuji Horii's comments about trying to expand the core gamers audience in Japan and how consoles will be top dog after the Smartphone boom. I can imagine that is a sentiment other share despite it seeming farfetched.

 

[monpiece]

I don't know what more to expect from Sony for a console that is dead everywhere else and barely breathes in Japan. They gave it redesigns, price drops and first party efforts for as long as they thought it was worth it.

It keeps getting multiplatform releases and even some exclusives from third parties. I 'm sure Sony has something to do with that situation. If we go with the same logic of first party support wow much Sony invested in software to PSP comparing to PS3?

The system is "dead" not by default. Did the redesign address the reasons that made it unpopular out of its niche? Did the first party efforts after the launch address people complaints about the lack of appealing software?

It is easy to say that Sony must have something to do with some third party games their system get, when every company does the same. It is similar to saying that they are trying because they send promotional material to stores and run some generic ads in gaming magazines. Did they work to get big titles that could make a difference? We don't know. Did they run massive campaigns to present their product to new and meaning audiences? Doesn't seem likely, since we only hear initiatives towards niches or audiences already on Vita.

I don't buy the argument that there is no market anymore for products like Vita. Maybe there is no market for Vita as it stands, but that is Sony fault. For example, if they can't convince a 3DS owner that Vita offers more than replacing their 3DS for a new 3DS, it is incompetence, not fate, bad luck or something inevitable.

Let's not pretend people always own only one of the available handhelds. They may have difficulties in breaking into some sections of the market, but others are by sheer incompetence. They haven't sold 20 million PSPs in Japan only because Monster Hunter.

 

[Kandinsky]

Yeh, same.

I wonder what Square thinks of these sales.

Take a look at the game, SE probably expected 100k tops lol.