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[RyougaSaotome]

YSO predictions

01. [PS4] NieR: Automata < 150k (average 140k)
02. [PS4] Super Robot Wars V < 115k (average 105k)
03. [PSV] Super Robot Wars V < 100k (average 90k)

This would be glorious.

I know we have numbers for NieR, but could someone also post numbers for the Drakengard games too? I know 2 isn't actually a Taro game, but still.

 

[Chris1964]

B-but aren't Platinum games meant to all be bombas?

It depends how you define a bomb. Metal Gear Rising was from Platinum.

 

[Takao]

B-but aren't Platinum games meant to all be bombas?

Just need to mooch off of someone else's gaming IP. They have had no luck with their own or non-gaming ones.

 

[Oregano]

Just need to mooch off of someone else's gaming IP. They have had no luck with their own or non-gaming ones.

Granblue going to be their best selling games. Second million seller for PS4!

Spoiler

Not really but it should do relatively well

 

[ZSaberLink]

Granblue going to be their best selling games. Second million seller for PS4!

Spoiler

Not really but it should do relatively well

GranBlue is going to PS4? Hm interesting.

 

[Oregano]

GranBlue is going to PS4? Hm interesting.

Where have you been?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2OqO6RGJ14w

 

[Eolz]

Honestly, after YSO's past issues with some games predictions, I'll wait for the final results

 

[Oregano]

Haha, I've just been reading some old threads and MH4's announcement came up and I forgot all about the fact that they talked about how they are following a multiplatform strategy when they announced it.

Making games multiplatform is a basic strategy, and Capcom has strengthened the "Monster Hunter" franchise, as well as other popular brands, by using it. Capcom will continue to meet the player's expectations through superior developmental knowhow and research, and by choosing hardware that benefits our games the most.

Clearly BS.

 

[Mory Dunz]

holy eff at Nier 140-105k.

Definitely didn't see that coming.

 

[Jpop]

Haha, I've just been reading some old threads and MH4's announcement came up and I forgot all about the fact that they talked about how they are following a multiplatform strategy when they announced it.



Clearly BS.

They were/are multi-platform.

3DS/Wii U

 

[cw_sasuke]

Haha, I've just been reading some old threads and MH4's announcement came up and I forgot all about the fact that they talked about how they are following a multiplatform strategy when they announced it.



Clearly BS.

They weren't lying.... They had MHFrontier on other consoles, MH on mobile as well as that I licensing deal for MH Online.

Multiplattform strategy just means that they are adapting and leveraging the IP for multiple systems - not that the main title has to hit every system. Same happened with Dragon Quest and other IPs this gen as well. The era of one system getting everything is over, especially with the differences between mobile service/gacha market and and tradition console market.

 

[Principate]

Just need to mooch off of someone else's gaming IP. They have had no luck with their own or non-gaming ones.

Well Bayonetta 1 was a success so that's not strictly true. Just not enough of a success for Sega but there's still a good chance it's do better than Nier which seems like a success also.

 

[Oregano]

They were/are multi-platform.

3DS/Wii U

MH4 wasn't.

They weren't lying.... They had MHFrontier on other consoles, MH on mobile as well as that I licensing deal for MH Online.

Multiplattform strategy just means that they are adapting and leveraging the IP for multiple systems - not that the main title has to hit every system. Same happened with Dragon Quest and other IPs this gen as well. The era of one system getting everything is over, especially with the differences between mobile service/gacha market and and tradition console market.

That's like monkeypaw Multiplatform.

Spoiler

Guess we can look forward to dumbed down MonHun for consoles.

 

[Kanann]

This would be glorious.

I know we have numbers for NieR, but could someone also post numbers for the Drakengard games too? I know 2 isn't actually a Taro game, but still.

DoD1 open 120,000 YTD 240,000+

DoD2

1. PS2 Drag-on Dragoon 2 - Square Enix - 125,000 (NEW)

YTD 206,000
PS. THIS IS NOT YOKO TARO's GAME!

DoD3

04./00. [PS3] Drakengard 3 <RPG> (Square Enix) {2013.12.19} (¥7.980) - 114.024 / NEW

YTD 150,000

NieR

01. / 00. [PS3] NieR Replicant (Square Enix) - 60.174 / NEW

+Xbox360 12,000
YTD 134,000





Please reach 300k, Automata.

 

[Arzehn]

MH4 wasn't.



That's like monkeypaw Multiplatform.

Spoiler

Guess we can look forward to dumbed down MonHun for consoles.

Yes, because Monster Hunter is so advanced and difficult... console players just won't understand

 

[Jpop]

MH4 wasn't.



That's like monkeypaw Multiplatform.

Spoiler

Guess we can look forward to dumbed down MonHun for consoles.

If Wii U actually sold well it would have been.

People should just accept the fact that mainline Monster Hunter are not going multi-platform.

Media Create threads were fucking arduous to be in with all the Monster Hunter VITA shenanigans.

 

[ArkhamFantasy]

So a good chance of Nier Automata doubling Nier Replicants opening. I guess word got out that the original is under rated and now people want the sequel. Platinum Games might have brought in some of their own fans too.

 

[cw_sasuke]

That's like monkeypaw Multiplatform.

Spoiler

Guess we can look forward to dumbed down MonHun for consoles.

Every system except 3DS underperformed this gen, can't really blame Capcom that they just stuck to that platform.

 

[Oregano]

Yes, because Monster Hunter is so advanced and difficult... console players just won't understand

Need some streamlining for those Destiny numbers.

If Wii U actually sold well it would have been.

People should just accept the fact that mainline Monster Hunter are not going multi-platform.

Media Create threads were fucking arduous to be in with all the Monster Hunter VITA shenanigans.

I definitely wouldn't rule it out.

Every system except 3DS underperformed this gen, can't really blame Capcom that they just stuck to that platform.

Eeek not many options for this coming gen then!

 

[Psycho_Mantis]

150k for Nier......thats unexpected to say the least.

Will it be before or after MH Vita announced?

What do you think?

 

[ArkhamFantasy]

150k for Nier......thats unexpected to say the least.

How many PS3 franchises have actually seen in increase in sales on PS4?

 

[Aostia]

Would be happy for nier

 

[frankie_baby]

The Wii U version of breath of the wild has finally shown up at the bottom of the comgnet chart, that is really gonna sell terribly aint it

 

[Eolz]

The Wii U version of breath of the wild has finally shown up at the bottom of the comgnet chart, that is really gonna sell terribly aint it

Well, this is the WiiU, and a better version is releasing as well, so...

 

[Asd202]

How many PS3 franchises have actually seen in increase in sales on PS4?

Persona and ummmmm...

 

[Sandfox]

Persona and ummmmm...

Persona was never on the PS3 before the multiplat Persona 5.

 

[Oregano]

The Wii U version of breath of the wild has finally shown up at the bottom of the comgnet chart, that is really gonna sell terribly aint it

It's going to sell better than most third party Switch games by the looks of it.

 

[frankie_baby]

Well, this is the WiiU, and a better version is releasing as well, so...

I know, few months ago though i would've thought it'd do around 100k, now i think it'll be lucky if it reaches even half that

It's going to sell better than most third party Switch games by the looks of it.

Perhaps day 1 but it'll have no legs where as those third party switch games can carry on selling at least a bit as new owners pick the system up

 

[Ōkami]

1. [3DS] Dragon Quest Monsters: Joker 3 - Professional - 142
2. [PS4] For Honor - 82
3. [PS4] Nioh - 76
4. [PS4] Digimon World: Next Order - International Edition - 26
5. [3DS] Poochy & Yoshi's Woolly World - 14
6. [3DS] Super Mario Maker for Nintendo 3DS - 12
7. [3DS] Mario Party: Star Rush - 12
8. [PS4] Romance of the Three Kingdoms XIII with Power Up Kit - 11
9. [3DS] Pokemon Moon - 11
10. [PS4] Tom Clancy's Rainbow Six: Siege - 10
11. [PS4] Grand Theft Auto V [New Price Edition] - 10
12. [3DS] Mario Kart 7 - 9
13. [3DS] Pokemon Sun - 8
14. [3DS] Yo-Kai Watch 3: Sukiyaki - 8
15. [WIU] Super Mario Maker - 7
16. [PSV] Call of Duty: Black Ops - Declassified - 7
17. [PSV] Kamaitachi no Yoru: Rinne Saisei - 7
18. [PS4] Yonmegami Online: Cyber Dimension Neptune - 7
19. [3DS] Miitopia - 7
20. [3DS] Animal Crossing: New Leaf - Welcome amiibo - 7

Preorders
[3DS] Monster Hunter XX - 743
[SWI] The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild - 250
[PS4] Nier: Automata - 128
[PS4] Super Robot Wars V - 119
[SWI] 1 2 Switch - 116
[PSV] Super Robot Wars V - 99
[PS4] Gran Turismo Sport - 68
[SWI] Mario Kart 8: Deluxe - 38
[PS4] Kingdom Hearts HD I.5 + II.5 Remix - 33
[PS4] Horizon: Zero Dawn - 30
[3DS] Dragon Ball Heroes Ultimate Mission X - 27
[SWI] Dragon Quest Heroes I & II for Nintendo Switch - 26
[PSV] Accel World VS Sword Art Online: Millennium Twilight - 25
[SWI] Super Bomberman R - 23
[WIU] The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild - 15

 

[Nirolak]

This would probably be the first instance of Square Enix digging up a dead/mostly-dead Japanese IP and making it successful again since... Final Fantasy Tactics Advance? Am I forgetting anything? Either way, it's good sign for them to get at least one positive performer out of their revival initiative.

So one final update on individual day performance for Fire Emblem and Dissidia barring some huge performance jump like hitting #1, but Fire Emblem is at #4, and Dissidia has been hovering around 20, so I think the longer term performance horizons for both of those games look positive.

While a lot has been said about Fire Emblem, Square Enix especially needed another hit in mobile. It had been around a year since they had a new one, and it was about time for them to reassert that they could continue to generate new successes on mobile.

 

[Asd202]

Persona was never on the PS3 before the multiplat Persona 5.

Oh yeah but PS4 was higher than PS3 ,

 

[test_account]

If Wii U actually sold well it would have been.

People should just accept the fact that mainline Monster Hunter are not going multi-platform.

Media Create threads were fucking arduous to be in with all the Monster Hunter VITA shenanigans.

I wonder why it was such a big deal that someone believed in multiplatform for Monster Hunter.

 

[Jpop]

I definitely wouldn't rule it out.

Like we shouldn't rule out the Vita getting a mainline Monster Hunter?

Look I am all for multi-platform releases, but I don't see any reasons it makes sense for a series like Monster Hunter.

This is a Japanese sales thread so I am talking from the perspective of the Japanese market.

Lets take the biggest points that make Monster Hunter successful.

-Local Co-Op Play

The main success of this series is derived from its pick up and play with whoever wherever you are. That success has a couple of requirements to keep it going.

-Portability (Play Wherever)
-Large User-base

The portability is essential for a game that relies on local co-op, which is one of the reasons we have not seen a mainline Pokemon game on consoles as of yet.

On the other hand you also need a large and active user-base for a game that relies on local co-op to be effective.

Multi-platform impedes what makes Monster Hunter successful. It would basically lead to one of two outcomes a split in user-base which would undermine the principle the series became successful on or a very small portion of users would play on one platform while the vast majority stuck to the other platform.

This brings us to needing a large user-base. The Vita/PS3/PS4 are never going to be able to support the user-base that the 3DS and most likely Switch will.

So from a sales perspective why would I want to release a multi-platform game that will either

A) Split the user-base and undermine the success of the series.
B) Have a disproportionately small user-base that I need to continually support ect...

 

[Ōkami]

The best Zelda game on Wii U is going to be the one Nintendo didn't made and doesn't play anything like Zelda.

 

[Oregano]

Perhaps day 1 but it'll have no legs where as those third party switch games can carry on selling at least a bit as new owners pick the system up

I wouldn't assume Switch games will have legs, I don't think the Wii U launch games did.

*stuff*

They want MH to grow in the west. Common sentiment is that putting the games on PS4 is the best way to do that.

 

[Jpop]

I wouldn't assume Switch games will have legs, I don't think the Wii U launch games did.



They want MH to grow in the west. Common sentiment is that putting the games on PS4 is the best way to do that.

Did you even read my post?

I literally said I was discussing Monster Hunter in Japan.

But please tell me how putting monster hunter on the PS4 is going to "grow" the franchise when it is already seeing growth with each iterations on the 3DS which has a higher install base?

 

[Oregano]

Did you even read my post?

I literally said I was discussing Monster Hunter in Japan.

It doesn't exist in a vacuum though and even if we're talking about Japan the PS4 will have a bigger install base and better hardware/software sales than Switch.

Spoiler

Unless they're staying 3DS exclusive lol!

EDIT:

But please tell me how putting monster hunter on the PS4 is going to "grow" the franchise when it is already seeing growth with each iterations on the 3DS which has a higher install base?

Games sell better on the PS4. Regardless it doesn't matter if it would actually increase sales because its perceived as being able to do so.

 

[Jpop]

It doesn't exist in a vacuum though and even if we're talking about Japan the PS4 will have a bigger install base and better hardware/software sales than Switch.

Spoiler

Unless they're staying 3DS exclusive lol!

EDIT:


Games sell better on the PS4. Regardless it doesn't matter if it would actually increase sales because its perceived as being able to do so.

Just like the PSP had a higher install base than the 3DS?

Funny I didn't see Monster Hunter games releasing on the PSP after the 3DS released. You keep making statements, but you don't actually back them up with anything substantial.

I'm not talking about "games" I am talking about Monster Hunter. Tell me how Monster Hunter releasing on the PS4 in the west is going to grow the user-base? Or you can keep dancing around and we can come back to these posts in a few years when the PS5 is releasing and there still isn't a mainline Monster Hunter on the PS4.

 

[sense]

.

Vita was not a success anywhere compared to PS4 which is huge success worldwide and gaining traction in emerging markets like Asia where Japanese publishers are starting to see benefits
If you/capcom were ok with 3ds/wii u multi platform then I am sure there should be no problem with 3ds/switch/ps4 which is what is most likely going to happen.

Were you someone that was convinced that mhxx was simultaneous launch with switch or dq won't be on PS4 or persona 5 will also be on 3ds or switch? Did you ever think dqh and dqb would have been made for PS4/vita? How did those turn out? I only bring this up because some people seem to love to keep bringing back mh vita speculations from years ago as an example to downplay any speculation regarding the franchise. The gaming landscape has changed and PS4/steam/mobile can't be avoided by these publishers anymore. Of course people can be wrong and I have been wrong on my predictions many times as well but doesn't mean these speculations are without reason.

 

[Oregano]

Just like the PSP had a higher install base than the 3DS?

Funny I didn't see Monster Hunter games releasing on the PSP after the 3DS released. You keep making statements, but you don't actually back them up with anything substantial.

I'm not talking about "games" I am talking about Monster Hunter. Tell me how Monster Hunter releasing on the PS4 in the west is going to grow the user-base? Or you can keep dancing around and we can come back to these posts in a few years when the PS5 is releasing and there still isn't a mainline Monster Hunter on the PS4.

That's a weird comparison. The PSP was a last gen system and they were moving the game to a more powerful system. PS4 is neither last gen nor less powerful than Switch.

 

[schuelma]

It's going to sell better than most third party Switch games by the looks of it.

This seems like a weird thing to focus on when analyzing the Switch software on Comgnet.

 

[Oregano]

This seems like a weird thing to focus on when analyzing the Switch software on Comgnet.

That's the thing that will determine whether Switch goes the way of 3DS or Wii U though.

 

[schuelma]

That's the thing that will determine whether Switch goes the way of 3DS or Wii U though.

I don't think the performance of I Am Setsuna or Nobunaga's Ambition Switch ports are going to determine anything, frankly. Again, kind of an odd metric given the other Switch software charting on comgnet right now.

 

[Mpl90]

Comgnet pre-order comparisons, as of February 19th, 2017

[3DS] Monster Hunter 4 Ultimate - 1531pt
[3DS] Monster Hunter X - 1706pt
[3DS] Monster Hunter XX - 743pt

[3DS] The Legend of Zelda: A Link Between Worlds - 40pt
[3DS] The Legend of Zelda: Majora's Mask 3D - 52pt
[NSW] The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild - 188pt +62pt = 250pt*
[WIU] The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild - 15pt

[PS4] Nier Automata - 128pt

[PS3] 3rd Super Robot Wars Z: Time Prison Chapter - 172pt
[PSV] 3rd Super Robot Wars Z: Time Prison Chapter - 82pt
[PS3] 3rd Super Robot Wars Z: Celestial Prison Chapter - 143pt
[PS3] 3rd Super Robot Wars Z: Celestial Prison Chapter - 99pt
[PS4] Super Robot Wars V - 71pt + 48pt = 119pt
[PSV] Super Robot Wars V - 51pt + 48pt = 99pt

[PS4] Kingdom Hearts 2.8 Final Chapter Prologue - 67pt
[PS4] Kingdom Hearts I.5 - II.5 Remix - 33pt

[PS4] Horizon: Zero Dawn - 30pt

[PS3] Dragon Quest Heroes: The World Tree's Woe and the Blight Below - 247pt
[PS4] Dragon Quest Heroes: The World Tree's Woe and the Blight Below - 155pt
[PS4] Dragon Quest Heroes II: Twin Kings and the Prophecy's End - 79pt
[PSV] Dragon Quest Heroes II: Twin Kings and the Prophecy's End - 52pt
[PS3] Dragon Quest Heroes II: Twin Kings and the Prophecy's End - 35pt
[NSW] Dragon Quest Heroes I-II for Nintendo Switch - 26pt

More recent launches on Comgnet: 12 days left

[3DS] Professor Layton and the Miracle Mask - 158pt
[3DS] Super Street Fighter IV 3D Edition - 49pt
[3DS] Samurai Warriors Chronicles - 48pt

[PSV] Hot Shots Golf 6 - 53pt

[NWU] New Super Mario Bros. U - 134pt
[NWU] Monster Hunter 3G HD Version - 59pt

[PS4] Yakuza: Ishin! 55pt
[PS4] Battlefield 4 - 25pt

[NSW] The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild - 188pt + 62pt = 250pt*
[NSW] 1 2 Switch - 116pt*
[NSW] Dragon Quest Heroes I-II for Nintendo Switch - 26pt
[NSW] Super Bomberman R - 23pt

* = at Comgnet, Switch can be preordered only with either Zelda or 1 2 Switch

Note: in the past few years, the ratio between preorder points and thousands of units sold have costantly decreased, and the past few months saw several examples of a much lower ratio than usual for several games (i.e. more actual thousands sold per preorder point), considering their platforms and genres (The Last Guardian, Poochy and Yoshi's Wolly World, Nioh, Final Fantasy XV as the first major examples).

 

[metalslimer]

That's the thing that will determine whether Switch goes the way of 3DS or Wii U though.

I don't think so. Even if 3rd party sales don't take off the potential sales of Switch i believe are much higher.

 

[Mpl90]

I don't think the performance of I Am Setsuna or Nobunaga's Ambition Switch ports are going to determine anything, frankly. Again, kind of an odd metric given the other Switch software charting on comgnet right now.

This is especially the kind of game for which the publisher can't be expecting that much. It's Sphere of Influence + Power Up Kit...now, where did I hear about this already (via MediaCreate)?

14./00. [PS3] Nobunaga's Ambition: Creation with Power-Up Kit # <SLG> (Koei Tecmo) {2014.12.11} (¥10.584) - 14.054 / NEW
26./00. [PS4] Nobunaga's Ambition: Creation with Power-Up Kit # <SLG> (Koei Tecmo) {2014.12.11} (¥10.584) < 8,493
10./00. [PSV] Nobunaga's Ambition: Creation with Power-Up Kit <SLG> (Koei Tecmo) {2015.05.28} (¥9.504) - 6.360 / NEW

I'd actually be bold enough to say that Koei Tecmo could be enthusiastic(?) if it sells 4,000 - 5,000 at launch.

 

[Oregano]

I don't think the performance of I Am Setsuna or Nobunaga's Ambition Switch ports are going to determine anything, frankly. Again, kind of an odd metric given the other Switch software charting on comgnet right now.

That'd be fine if there other third party games that were going to do well but it looks like DQ Heroes is going to be the biggest but will sell less than the PS3 version.

I don't think so. Even if 3rd party sales don't take off the potential sales of Switch i believe are much higher.

Even twice as much as Wii U would be bad and I don't think it could do much better without third party support.

 

[schuelma]

That'd be fine if there other third party games that were going to do well but it looks like DQ Heroes is going to be the biggest but will sell less than the PS3 version.

.

I think you have way too high expectations for the Switch 3rd party launch games. I'd also add that Zelda and 1,2 Switch are far more important to the system's health in Japan than DQ Heroes. Just take the Wii U launch- Monster Hunter was a high profile 3rd party launch game that had a nice start. And it was essentially the first and only one since the system cratered almost from the start.

 

[frankie_baby]

That'd be fine if there other third party games that were going to do well but it looks like DQ Heroes is going to be the biggest but will sell less than the PS3 version.



Even twice as much as Wii U would be bad and I don't think it could do much better without third party support.

DQ heroes switch is being sold at a pretty obscene price is it not? So even if sales aint great it could still bring in a decent chunk of revenue and there's obviously the opportunity to reduce price later on to give it some legs if they want

 

[Mpl90]

I think you have way too high expectations for the Switch 3rd party launch games. I'd also add that Zelda and 1,2 Switch are far more important to the system's health in Japan than DQ Heroes. Just take the Wii U launch- Monster Hunter was a high profile 3rd party launch game that had a nice start. And it was essentially the first and only one since the system cratered almost from the start.

Monster Hunter 3G HD Version also had a major help from the Premium bundle. How much, you may ask (via Dengeki)?

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=45683502&postcount=772

04. (__) [WIU] Monster Hunter 3 Ultimate (Capcom) - 110,794 / 110,794

Hardware: 311,000 units
Hardware sell-through around 85%
SKU split, in average: 50% Premium / 25% MH3GHD Pack / 25% Basic

Monster Hunter 3G HD Version bundle - 77,750
Monster Hunter 3G HD Version solo - 33,044